Polish zloty in trouble: Swiss franc is sharpening its teethTechnically, CHFPLN has completed a consolidation phase within a narrowing triangle and broke to the upside. The pair is now testing the 4.60 level (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement) from below — a decisive zone. A breakout and confirmation above this area opens the path toward 4.705, which coincides with the 0.5 Fibo level and a local resistance. A pullback from that zone back to 4.60 is possible, but this time as a support retest. If the level holds, the targets remain: 4.91 and 5.13 - both marked by Fibonacci extensions and major long-term horizontal resistance. The EMAs are aligned in support of further upside, with price consistently trading above them.
Fundamentally, the Swiss franc remains a safe-haven currency, especially amidst increasing instability in the Eurozone. Weak growth in Germany, looming ECB policy easing, and rising inflationary pressures are all tilting investor interest toward CHF. Meanwhile, Poland faces political uncertainty, budgetary debates, and volatility in the agricultural and energy sectors. All of this strengthens the case for the franc in this pair.
Tactically, the game plan is straightforward: a confirmed breakout above 4.60 signals the start of a bullish impulse. The 4.60–4.705 zone is the key area of interest for buyers. If this zone is reclaimed and held, the next targets - 4.91 and 5.13 - remain valid, where large players may look to take profits.
If this scenario plays out, the zloty may soon be tuning into Polish radio to sing nostalgic songs about the golden days of its strength.
