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How to make money on a pound and what to do with oilThe situation in Hong Kong continues to escalate. Trump promises to sign a scandalous law to support demonstrators, which is extremely describing China. And although the US and China declare progress in the negotiations, in such conditions, it can break at any moment. So we continue to look for points for purchases of gold and the Japanese yen. As for the other news - the impeachment process continues in the USA, the UK is preparing for the elections and Saudi Arabia for the IPO Saudi Aramco. In light of the upcoming elections and the uncertainty with its outcome, we can’t count on the growth or decline of the pound in the next couple of weeks. But on the other hand, understanding this opens the doors for aggressive intraday trading without explicit preferences. So, we are armed with hourly oscillators and actively trade GBPUSD. Oil has grown quite well over the past couple of days amid information about rising oil reserves in the US, as well as increased tensions in the Middle East. These events are not one of those that can significantly change the balance of power in the market. So Friday looks like a great day for oil sales. First of all, we are waiting for business activity indices to be published in the Eurozone, the UK and the USA. Also, pay attention to retail sales in Canada, as well as the speech of the new head of the ECB Lagarde. Given that markets are now very sensitive to macroeconomic statistics, even relatively minor data can trigger a surge in volatility. Well, from the new head of the ECB, her vision of monetary policy in the Eurozone has long been expected.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Hong Kong as a black swan and its consequences, FOMC protocolThe other day we wrote about the calm prevailing in the financial markets and the absence of “black swans”, which can turn the situation upside down and provoke a sharp surge of volatility. Judging by how events are developing, Hong Kong could become such a “game-changer”. And the point here is not even the intensification of protest activity in the country and its transition to the bloody phase of the confrontation, but the reaction of the world to these events. In particular, the US Senate passed a bill in support of demonstrators in Hong Kong. Since the events in Hong Kong are extremely important for China, they view such US actions as extremely hostile and painful. In particular, China said it would retaliate. All this happens on the eve of the final rounds of the first phase of negotiations between the US and China, the positive outcome of which is already included in current market prices. So the aggravation of the situation may well provoke a breakdown in the negotiation process, and we will return to the situation when countries actively exchange new tariffs, that is, to intensify trade wars. Although this scenario is relatively unlikely, you should not write it off. Moreover, investors are already trying to discount under a possible negative, and the press is beginning to "disperse" this topic. Accordingly, our recommendations for buying safe-haven assets continue to be relevant. In general, in which we note that a critical mass of reasons to start a full-fledged financial crisis has already been formed and the whole issue is in the trigger. The conflict between the two largest economies in the world - what could be the best candidate for the role of a catalyst? The United States yesterday reported good statistics on the real estate market (building permits grew in October by 5% with a forecast of a decline of 0.4%), but the ongoing hearing about the impeachment of Trump does not give traders a reason to concentrate on buying the dollar. FOMC protocols have given little to the markets in terms of understanding the Fed’s future moves. A pause is a current vector in betting policy. Our position on the dollar remains unchanged: we are looking for points for its sales. Moreover, every day such opportunities appear in one or the other pair. For example, a pair of USDCAD was a good substitute.
Short
by Trade24Fx
FOMC protocols & stormBlack swans did not fly by, and there were no important macroeconomic statistics or news injections either on the financial markets. In general, the lull that has lately reigned in the financial markets is lingering and the silence begins to become painful. Usually, it all ends with a storm. But a storm needs a trigger. For example, Trump’s next demarche and the failure of negotiations between the US and China with a sharp intensification of trade wars. But so far, markets do not believe in such a scenario. Goldman Sachs Group analysts predict the extinction of friction between the United States and China in 2020, and the WTO predicts the intensification of global trade next year: if by the end of 2019, world trade is expected to grow at 1.2%, then in 2020 WTO experts are counting on an increase of 2.7%. The dynamics of the VIX Index (Fear Index) is located in the area of historic lows. According to Deutsche Bank estimates, the currency market volatility for the major G10 currency pairs is at its lowest level over the past 45 years. The last time this happened only twice in the past - during 2007 and 2014. Nevertheless, the calmer the financial markets look and the more optimistic the forecasts of financial analysts sound, the more worrying it becomes for us since all these are signs of an impending storm. In this regard, our confidence in the advisability of medium-term purchases of safe-haven assets is growing stronger every day. But once again, we note that within the day, gold or the Japanese yen may well decline, especially if positive news from the trade negotiations appear. Today promises to be more interesting than Tuesday. Because inflation statistics for Canada will be published, as well as FOMC protocols. Given that the next Fed’s actions are not what we can predict now, the markets will study with interest in the text of the last FOMC meeting. Our position on the dollar, meanwhile, is unchanged: we believe that the threat/opportunity balance for the dollar has now shifted towards threats and will continue to look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market.
FX:NGASShort
by Trade24Fx
Trump helps safe havens and puts pressure on the dollarYesterday against the positive comments from the US and China regarding trade negotiations, safe-haven assets were under pressure. That is not surprising. Recall our position on gold and the Japanese yen – is to buy, however, now we should trade with an eye to a possible surge of optimism in the financial markets against the background of breaking news from Washington. Nevertheless, such descents of safe-haven assets should be tried to be used for short-term speculative trading with small stops. Yesterday is a vivid confirmation of this. The meeting between Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell provoked the sale of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and led to an increase in gold prices. The reason is Trump's comments on negative rates and a strong dollar, which were discussed at the meeting. So there is nothing new: Trump consistently opposed the strong dollar and ultra-low rates. So nothing extraordinary happened yesterday. Another important news is the information about the IPO Saudi Aramco - on the one hand, it is the largest public offering in history (company's capitalization), and in addition, this event is important for the oil market. So, $ 2 trillion of capitalization seems to remain in the dreams of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. Preliminary estimates are $ 1.6- $ 1.7 trillion. Which, however, will still make the company the most expensive in the world. Regarding the situation in the oil market, despite the desire of the Saudis to conduct an IPO in the most favorable conditions (rising oil prices), as well as the continued decline in the number of active oil wells in the United States, we believe that current oil prices are close to extreme for of these conditions, which means we will sell oil both on the intraday basis and in the medium term. But do not forget about the stops. A breakthrough in negotiations between the US and China could provoke not only sales in safe-haven assets, but also an increase in oil prices. Our other trading preferences are unchanged - the Russian ruble can and should be sold. The US dollar is also interesting enough to open short positions, especially after yesterday's sales. The pound feels rather confident in the foreign exchange market in light of the growing confidence of the markets in the victory of the Johnson party in the elections, but we are interested in its purchases on the slopes, and not along the way. So we will wait until the pound is substituted, and only then buy it.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Brexit breakthrough and markets bet on the breakthrough in US-ChThere were no major breakthroughs at the meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Taoiseach Leo Varadkar over the Irish border backstop. Recall that today it is the main sticking point that stops signing an agreement with the EU. As a result, the GBPUSD soared more than 250 points. However, this is not the end so you should not relax. Next week, the EU summit will take place, from which markets are waiting for a final decision on Brexit. Current options for the development of events include an agreement with the UK, another delay or exit without a deal. We have been supporting pound purchases for a long time since we believe in Brexit deal. Negotiations between the USA and China continued to be the hottest one. Trump said the talks went well. Today, Trump will host Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, in the White House, so surges in volatility in the financial markets are still likely. The markets seemed to be imbued with Trump's confidence, as demand for the Chinese yuan in the options market sharply increased (over the past 24 hours, traders bought two-month options in the dollar/yuan with a strike at 6.95 for $ 650 million). That is, traders are trying to prepare for the success of the negotiations and are waiting for the renminbi to strengthen. trading decisions have to be made with an eye to a possible change in the existing fundamental background. Regarding our position on safe-haven assets, today we will not recommend buying gold or the Japanese yen. The situation is too unpredictable, and the risks are too high. Our recommendation for today is the adaption to any negotiation outcome. The success of negotiations between the United States and China, in theory, will be accompanied by haven assets sales. Accordingly, you can act respectively, with that. Yesterday, pound dynamics showed that even a late call could bring significant profits. If negotiations fail, you can act respectively purchasing gold and the Japanese yen. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, Employment Change in Canada is what we are interested in. So today is an interesting day to work the Canadian dollar.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Getting ready for a busy day and not going against the marketToday may well be a day of high volatility in the financial markets as a result changes in prices for several financial assets. There are a lot of important macroeconomic statistics will be published today. In particular, a whole block of data will be released across the UK, including GDP in August, industrial production, the index of business activity in the service sector, as well as the trade balance. So at 11-30 in pound pairs most likely it will be intense. As for the unstable pound we recommend practising news trading today. 1-2 minutes before the news release, we place pending stop orders, both for purchase and for sale, at 20-25 points from the current price of GBPUSD at that time. Well, then we just wait. Positive news is likely to provoke a growth, while negative news will lead to sales. Accordingly, one of the pending orders will react. Well, then it is only a matter of time and patience. Apart from data from the UK, inflation statistics from the United States is also we are interested in. Recall, 2% is the Fed’s target, accordingly, while inflation is below this mark, the Fed could cut the rates. We also do not forget that the Central Bank has at its disposal other instruments for expanding/narrowing the money supply. From the latest news, it is worth noting the Federal Reserve will soon purchase of US Treasury bonds. That is, the program to reduce the balance is over and the Fed's balance sheet begins to expand. Yesterday, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting was published. There is no unity in the Fed regarding the monetary policy vector. The distribution of votes “in favour” and “against” the reduction of the rate 50/50. The growth of the dollar supply in the market is a strong bearish signal. So the markets to finally begin to sell off the dollar the confirmation in the form of weak inflation is needed. So today's data is extremely important and can provoke strong movements in dollar pairs. But the main focus of the markets today is on negotiations between the US and China. If they fail, then the safe haven will be very volatile. If negotiations succeed, oil price may soar, while gold and the Japanese yen will be sold off. In this light, the main rule of today is not to go against the market. The movement can be very strong and unidirectional. Accordingly, trading in the direction of travel, especially if there is a fundamental reason for this, is the best option for trading today.
by Trade24Fx
Broadcom fate depends on China tradeAVGO earnings report: AVGO Q2 earnings surpass estimates Q2 quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 0.77%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this chipmaker would post earnings of $5.19 per share when it actually produced earnings of $5.55, delivering a surprise of 6.94%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times. However... We saw a drop of 12% after hours. Today it regain 6%. If AVGO stays above the 200SMA we could see a big potential upside. Please check chart for more information on specifics.
NASDAQ:AVGOLong
by dorfmanmaster