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Bitcoin Pre-Halving AnalysisIn this first installment we'll be breaking off the first piece of our complete analysis. These bite-sized chunks will ensure that each segment remains coherent and digestible. The first thing I want to think about is the length of time of "rounding tops". Each of these rounding tops is angled upward from end to end. If you scroll back on Bitcoin you'll see another 40 day rounding top, and it was a nightmare (or a dream depending on your strategy). It's important to note that the off-screen rounding top I'm talking about had a downward trend from end to end. The top rounded downward. So it's no surprise that after the 40 days, when the top let out, it fell off a cliff hard. Our latest rounding top is at 40 days, but the trend is angled upward from end to end. It's a strong-looking rounding top but that doesn't mean there won't be a 20 or 30% drop starting tomorrow. Either way we'll DCA so although I'm personally anticipating a large pullback, if it fires up to new magnitudes we'll profit then as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn38161102
TSLA Caught in Vortex of Conflicting TechnicalsPrimary Chart : TSLA's 2D Price Chart with .618 Fibonacci Retracement of Decline from All-Time High to Jan. 2023 Low and Various Degrees of Trend Represented by Conflicting Channels SUMMARY: 1. TSLA's technicals are unclear and conflicting. The trend from the 2021 all-time high remains downward until broken. The trend from the January 2023 low remains upward but somewhat choppy and unstable. The trend from the July 2023 high remains choppy and downward until broken. 2. Institutional buying into year end may be supportive of prices, allowing short-term traders to buy dips to well-defined support / risk levels into early January 2024. Until more structural change occurs providing more clarity, it's difficult to have confidence in any trend other than the shortest ones. 3. Once the next multi-month trend move occurs, some may look back and say that its was obvious and inevitable, offering post hoc arguments based on data that can be manipulated to support opposite outcomes. But today, unambiguous data pointing to a clear directional outcome is lacking (especially on intermediate and longer-term time frames). 4. Severely inverted yield curves suggest pressure on the economy and equity markets in the coming year or two. But as the lessons of the dot-com crash have taught us, markets can rally violently into their own recessionary demise. The downward channel from the July 18, 2023, swing high has been the only pattern working lately. The last decline in late October 2023 was bought, and this dip fell to support at the downward sloping parallel channel. Bulls may see this as a bull flag, and it might be, but a breakout above the downward-sloping trendline from TSLA's all-time high stands in the way of a potential flag-breakout. Further, bears may reasonably see the channel from January 2023 as a bear flag within the larger downtrend from 2021. These conflicting technicals are worth watching over the coming weeks and months for resolution. Supplementary Chart A If one zooms out on TSLA's chart and looks at the past two years of price action, price action has largely been sideways in a trading range. This is despite the vicious decline starting November 2021 and lasting for over a year as well as the violent rallies and choppy uptrend in 2023. This sideways range seems to contain both the bear and bull markets of 2021-2023. Trading ranges are also known as chop, which is why trends on all time frames have likely been less predictable, disappointing many traders and investors during this time unless they have major equity cushions from many years ago or trade only the shorter time frames. Supplementary Chart B Because the larger degree trends over a two-year to three-year period has been primarily sideways, the trends within it have been less reliable and more likely to chop up TSLA investors. Anchored VWAPs shown below also confirm this analysis of choppy, sideways action that is less predictable overall. Over the past year, notice all the failed breakouts above and below the key VWAPs anchored to major turning points. There are many. Supplementary Chart C Supplementary Chart D Supplementary Chart D shows how the moving averages also are tangled, messy and sideways, presenting conflicting signals. In conclusion, TSLA's technical charts remain conflicted and unclear. Many disciplined traders or investors with a short-term to intermediate-term time frame may wish to define risk clearly and keep losses small or else stay away. The Primary Chart reveals just how challenging TSLA's price action is for trend traders and investors. A downtrend from TSLA's all-time high remains unbroken as the downward sloping parallel channel shows. An uptrend from TSLA's January 2023 low also remains relatively stable despite the volatility seen this year. And a 4-month downtrend channel has been in play since July 2023. Any one of these technical trendlines could break one way or the other, but as of Thanksgiving, none have been broken and these data points remain unavailable for market participants wanting long or short exposure to TSLA. What should traders and investors do? Some may vent the useless nature of a post that says a stock can go up, down or sideways on intermediate to long-term time frames. Others may see that TSLA doesn't have a clear directional play except on the shortest time frames, which is based on the currently available data. So perhaps wait patiently for more data and simply do nothing—the hardest thing for fidgety trader and DIY investor types, right? Those sitting on a large equity cushion may wish to tighten stops a bit to $200 (assuming their entries are much lower). Those with no position may want to just wait for more clarity. Short-term traders who believe institutional flows into year end will buoy markets broadly and lead to higher prices into year end (and first week of January 2024) may wish to keep an eye on critical support at $200-$220 evidenced by the green VWAP anchored to October 2023 lows as shown on the Primary Chart. If this author were to have a bias, it would lean in this direction into year end and early January 2024, but it's a weak bias that can't be strongly held. Such a thesis, like any other trading viewpoint, isn't guaranteed at all even though it may have a reasonable probability of being correct. This is why a stop (risk level) is needed. Upside targets in such a scenario would require a decisive move above the .618 Fibonacci retracement level and for that level to hold first. It's possible that the move off October 2023 lows could be consolidated first, where bullish TSLA traders may watch $200-$220 support levels. If a dip were to create a better entry for traders into year end, then upside targets might be considered as follows: Conservative: $250-$255 Aggressive: $275-$280 Extremely Aggressive: $300-$310 As always, risk should be well managed so that the reward / risk ratio remains higher and the losses kept small. And keep in mind that TSLA-related news catalysts, including the ones from this past week, may have a tendency to yank price around and create formidable volatility. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
45
Introducing the Chop and Trend Index (CTI)Get ready to revolutionize your trading strategy with our latest tutorial on the Chop and Trend Index (CTI)! This unique indicator, unlike traditional oscillators, provides a fresh perspective on market conditions by identifying periods of market chop and strong trends. Whether you're trading stocks, forex, or commodities, on any timeframe, the CTI is a game-changer. In this video, we'll break down how it works, how to use it, and how it can enhance your trading strategy. Don't miss out on this opportunity to stay ahead of the market curve with the CTI!
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by FadingExtremes
S&P 500 Update: Monitoring Key Developments in Early AprilThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures have recently deviated from prior expectations, exhibiting a lot of overlapping and corrective price action. This irregularity has led to uncertainty about the market's near-term direction. As we approach the end of the week, let's take a closer look at the anticipated trends and key levels to watch. Today's upward movement may entice many bullish traders, but a cool-off period seems more likely in the short term. I expect tomorrow's price action to decline, allowing the market to take a breather. Should the S&P 500 continue to rise, however, it could signal a significant bullish shift. As the week comes to a close, the index may experience a downward move, possibly reaching as low as 4000 or cutting short around 4010. A key trendline on the chart should offer some support during this period. Next week, my focus shifts to the April 6th target. The apex of the converging upper and lower trendlines forms a wedge, which I believe will be broken in an upward direction. This coincidental alignment with my April 6th target demands attention. Once the market moves above the wedge, I anticipate a considerable decline either on April 6th or in the following days. While I won't disclose my downside target yet, I predict a potential spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) if the S&P 500 declines after April 6th. You should closely monitor the VIX and the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), which could exceed $6 within the next 3-4 weeks if my projections are accurate. I urge traders to exercise caution, avoid overleveraging, and remain adaptive to market changes. It's crucial to remember that the market controls your actions, not the other way around. Stay alert and prepared to adjust your strategy as necessary, and always trade carefully.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
2
SPX Futures: Navigating the Current Market PhaseI'd like to examine the recent performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures and provide a simplified analysis. I initially targeted the 3990 level for SPX futures, but the market fell slightly short of this target. It's still possible (and likely) that we could see a move down to this level (or 3970-3980) in the near future. The current market movement appears to be corrective, and since March 13, we've been in a predominantly corrective phase. As long as SPX futures high of around 4075 holds, we can expect a downward move towards 3750. Identifying invalidation levels (points at which a specific analysis or trading strategy is no longer valid) is crucial for long-term success in this consolidating market. Trading options has been challenging for inexperienced traders, as theta decay (the decrease in an option's value as time passes) is working against them. My current expectation is for a move to the 3970-3980 range short-term, followed by a return to around 4050 in a few trading sessions. Take the market one day at a time, but keep in mind that reaching the 4050 level presents an excellent opportunity to establish a short position with a clear invalidation level and manageable risk. The risk-reward ratio is favorable here, as a drop to 3750 would represent a move of over 200 points. Keep in mind that this shift might not happen quickly, and for now, trading futures contracts may be a more suitable approach. Make sure you understand how futures trading works before diving in head first. Always monitor market developments closely and be prepared to adjust your strategy based on new information. It's essential to balance risk and reward while considering the current market phase and your own trading experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by bitdoctor
SPY the Anchored VWAPs during Choppy Price ActionPrimary Chart: Long-Term Anchored VWAPs and YTD Down Trendline Whenever price action gets confusing, it can help to take a step back and consider the larger picture again. Many experts have weighed in after each consecutive low in this year's bear market, with some claiming that the lows are in, and others claiming price has much further to fall after the inevitable relief rallies. Placing the Current Price Action into Context with Anchored VWAPs with Different Lengths The Primary Chart shows several important VWAPs anchored to both longer-term and more recent swing highs and lows. The anchored VWAPs all help provide a broader picture of what is happening with price on major equity indices like the S&P 500, which is tracked and analyzed here using the S&P 500 ETF AMEX:SPY . (Note that SPY values are roughly equivalent to SPX values, so SPX is typically a multiple of 10 times SPY, though SPY typically trades at a slightly lesser level than SPX after conversion.) The anchored VWAP from the pandemic low on March 23, 2020, is gold colored and remains above price as resistance with a flat to slightly downward slope. This VWAP has a value of 385.51 as of today. The VWAP anchored to the all-time high on January 4, 2022, is orange colored and slopes downward well above price. This VWAP currently has a value of $416.71 as of today. The Primary Chart also shows two blue-colored VWAPs anchored to recent major swing highs and lows: (i) the swing high on August 16, 2022, and the swing low on June 17, 2022. These also have a sharp downward slope and are above current prices as resistance. These VWAPs values range currently from about 389.08 to $390.57. Lastly, the VWAP anchored to the September 30, 2022, low, which is the YTD low, is red colored and sloping upward with price above it. Provided price can hold above this VWAP, and as long as it remains upward sloped, it suggests shorter-term trends remain choppy to upward. The YTD trendline that has contained price (light blue) also confirms what the VWAPs show. This downtrend line has rejected price multiple times even after powerful, sharp multi-week rallies. When this line is broken to the upside and the VWAPs are reclaimed as well, one might begin to discuss whether the trend structure could be changing and whether the lows are more lasting. Until such time, rallies should be viewed with some level of suspicion. Price could rally hard, as it has done multiple times already this year, and convince many that the lows are in, only to reverse and continue the downtrend right at the critical resistance levels. Placing the Current Downtrend into an Even Larger Context A recent SquishTrade analysis from October 1, 2022, discussed the 13-year secular uptrend in the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ), noting that SPX had fallen below the midpoint of the 13-year channel. The post with that analysis can be found here. Supplementary Chart: 13-Year Secular Uptrend on Logarithmic Chart To summarize the analysis from that prior post, the current trend—a bear market— could continue until the lower edge of the channel without changing the very long-term "secular" uptrend at all. The lower edge of the channel lies at $3000-$3100 in the coming months. More specifically, the prior post on this 13-year secular uptrend noted the likelihood that price could come into the lower edge of the channel without changing the structure of the longer-term secular uptrend: "Eventually, price may likely come into contact with the lower edge of the channel—and the long-term secular uptrend will still be intact and neatly contain this bear market. In other words, this bear market at the level of primary trend will not invalidate the secular uptrend, unless price breaks that line around SPX 3000-3100 (considering where the line lies in 3 to 6 months)." Since the September 30, 2022, low, price has now recovered to retest the midpoint of that channel at approximately SPX 3756, and price is chopping around the midpoint now. ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:SPY
by SquishTrade
11
MATIC Remains Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place Primary Chart: MATIC Price Chart Showing Overhead Supply Zones and Fibonacci Retracements MATIC Network Shows Strength in Recent Months Despite Being in a Bear Market As shown in the Primary Chart above, MATIC network's price continues to trade well below all-time highs of $2.92 / USD. No argument can be made that it has overcome its bear market just yet. Further, the flag / parallel channel that contained price for much of the rally off the mid-June lows has been broken to the downside (see Primary Chart above). Even so, MATIC has shown strength in the past two months since its June 2022 lows. Consider the chart below that shows MATIC having broken out above a downward trendline going back to all-time highs. Supplementary Chart A: MATIC's Breakout above Seven-Month Downward Trendline But despite showing strength in recent months, especially as compared to BTC and ETH, MATIC has been trading below major overhead supply zones that reach back over one year to August 14, 2021. The lower of these two supply zones zones was touched several times in late July and mid-August 2022, with a rejection back below it each time. See Primary Chart (above). MATIC also has a demand zone just below its current price. That demand zone is shown as a teal-blue rectangle in Supplementary Chart B below. Supplementary Chart B: MATIC's Demand Zone as Support An argument might be made that intermediate-term trading lows have been established at the June 2022 lows. Such an argument would be based on the measured-move concept, where the two legs of a corrective decline are equal or nearly so. In the Supplementary Chart C below, notice how wave A and C of a major A-B-C decline from all-time highs to the June 2022 lows have equality around the $.48 level. Price traded to this level, and broke below it somewhat, before reclaiming it in a reasonable amount of time. Supplementary Chart C.1: Measured-Move Showing Potential Intermediate-Term Trading Low Note that just because a measured move target has been met does not mean a correction is complete. Consider, for example, Supplementary Chart C.2 below, which is not a forecast or technical-analysis based price projection. It merely shows a manner in which a corrective pattern can continue upward in a bear market, consistent with complex Elliott Wave corrective patterns, and can continue higher for some time before resuming lower to retest or break the lows. Supplementary Chart C.2: Hypothetical Example of Complex Corrective Pattern Continuing Higher from Measured-Move Low Before Retesting Lows Later Despite substantial weakness in equity markets and crypto markets since mid-August 2022, MATIC has not shown sufficient weakness just yet to cause it to fall anywhere near its YTD lows at $.316. In fact, unlike other cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, MATIC has not broken and held below its .382 retracement of the June-August 2022 rally. On the Primary Chart above, note how MATIC has found strong support multiple days right at its .382 retracements. BTC and ETH have not found similar support at their .382 retracement of the recent rally. In fact, BTC has crashed through all its key Fibonacci retracements including the .618 retracement around $20,488.65 and has held below this level (see Supplementary Chart D.2 below). This comaprison shows MATIC's relative strength since the June 2022 lows as compared to BTC and ETH. Supplementary Chart D.1: ETH Has Broken Through Its .382 Retracement and Has Held at .50 Retracement Supplementary Chart D.2: BTC Has Broken Through All Its Key Retracements and Has Held below its .618 Retracement Conclusion: MATIC Network Remains Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place So MATIC is stuck in chop between a rock and a hard place. The rock is the substantial overhead resistance, and the hard place is what appears to be just a few supports standing between price and bear-market lows. A weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku) chart shows just how difficult the resistance is despite incredible price strength in recent months. The cloud remains very thick overhead and red colored and even thicker in the near future, signs of formidable resistance in downtrend. The Kijun line (blue) also stands as strong resistance in addition to the other resistances mentioned in this post. This line decisively repelled price in mid-August 2022. Supplementary Chart E: Weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart Note the small twist in the Weekly Ichimoku cloud above, however, which suggests a possible weakness in overhead resistance where a rally could theoretically break above the cloud more easily under Ichimoku analysis principles. But the odds of this occurring in the current macroeconomic environment seem bleak at best. Nevertheless, markets do tend to move in unexpected ways, and this twist in the cloud should be monitored in October 2022 to see whether it holds any glimmer of hope for a break back above the weekly cloud. The weekly Kijun must be conquered first, though, and until price can rise above the Weekly Kijun, all talk of a break above the weekly cloud remains premature. The daily cloud offers a little better picture for the trend in the intermediate term. Price remains above a green-colored cloud that slopes upward ever so slightly. But again, this is insufficient to change the bear-market trend, though it is a necessary first step. Even on the daily chart, price has fallen back below the Kijun line at $.90, and price has also pierced back into the cloud itself, a sign of weakness. Resistance seems to arise to current price action from the top edge of the cloud, called the SSA line. Supplementary Chart F: Daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. ___________________________________________________________________ BINANCE:MATICUSDT COINBASE:MATICUSD KUCOIN:MATICUSDT BINANCE:MATICUSD KRAKEN:MATICUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD KRAKEN:ETHUSD CME:ETH1! CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BYBIT:BTCUSDT KRAKEN:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD
M
by SquishTrade
3