C & financial sector showing weakness?The financial sector sell off caught my attention. Bearish future?
Citigroup
The "Cheap" Bank w/ Short Term Trading Gains (PT $75.40)Who couldn't love Citi when it had dropped to $68? Given both the long term and "2017 Hotness" trend lines, the stock has been knocked down between a reasonable to weak area where it can rebound back up to a comfortable "median" position that has been previously held. Reading between the fib lines and the somewhat consistent range of $70-77, it wouldn't be unreasonable for the stock to climb back to around the midpoint of $75. Its earnings call was great, though some will argue with how fantastic it should have been given the current climate and what's priced in.
If the stock reaches $78, absolutely sell and don't be greedy trying to wait for that magic $80 mark. I'm sure everyone will be watching and waiting for it, but without proper volume, it will be a short lived rally up as everyone else takes their gains. I love Citi as a company and believe it to be strong and stable moving forward the rest of this year. Any price point close to $70 is great for a small position and for technical trading to get some ranged gains.
THE WEEK AHEAD: JPM, C, WFC, SMH, AND XBILater in the week, we kick off earnings season with a trio of financials: JPM, C, and WFC,* all of which announce on Friday before market open.
Generally speaking, I haven't played a lot of financials in the past, since their background implied volatility never seems to bump up significantly enough. Here, however, with JPM's implied at 32, C's at 33, and WFC's at 33 -- all toward the upper end of their 52-week ranges, I figured I'd take a look to see whether "this time is different." It looks like it is ... .
The April 20th 23 delta 104/114 short strangle in JPM is paying 1.47 at the mid with break evens at the one standard deviation line, and the corresponding defined risk setup (an iron condor) with strikes at 101/104/114/117 is nearly paying one-third the width of the wings -- a .96/contract credit, with break evens between the expected and a one standard deviation move.
The C April 20th 65/72.5 20 delta short strangle is paying 1.00 even with break evens at the one standard deviation line, implying that a defined risk setup isn't going to pay at least one-third the width of the wings. Moreover, the longs clear of the 20's go 2 1/2 wide ... .
In WFC, the April 20th 49.5/55 22-delta short strangle pays .87/contract with expected move break evens ... .
Out of these three, I'd probably go with the JPM play because the defined risk setup is paying nearly one-third, and the strikes wide of the 20-delta strikes don't go all "wanky." Having strikes in one-wide increments basically everywhere generally leads to fewer rolling headaches. That being said, it's a long way between here and Thursday close, which is when you'd want to look at these underlyings again, adjust your setups accordingly, and see whether they're still worth your while.
On the exchange-traded fund front, the top five implied volatility wise are: OIH (37), SMH (36), XBI (36), XOP (35), and EWZ (32). I'm already in XOP and EWZ plays, so the only thing that makes personal sense for me out of that group are potential plays in SMH or XBI, although I'm sure there's still juice to be had in just short strangling XOP (the May 25th 31.5/38's paying 1.00).
The SMH May 18th 90/108 short strangle (20 delta) pays 2.55 with expected move break evens; its defined risk counterpart, the 87/90/108/111 pays .93, slightly short of the one-third I normally look for, but probably good enough for a less than 40 day until opex setup.
The XBI 75/91 pays 1.98 with expected move break evens; the 72/75/91/94 pays .85 ... .
* -- Given that this trio is closely correlated, it may also be worth taking a look at XLF, although with a background implied of 28, that isn't looking all that juicy at the moment ... .
Trading PPsignal Trading IdeaWe detected an entry sign in C Citi NYSE:C .
We are close to the earning calendar so we believe there may be a technical purchase alert.
We have traced a fibonacci retracement. If pp siganl gives buy signal above or close to 23% .60 fibo ... Buy. Take profits in fibo 50 or 78%.
Configure signal in W search.
Citigroup(C) Bullish Butterfly and 70 long opportunityAs the stock market pulls back, it will be exciting to do the bottom-up strategy.
C has a potential bullish butterfly pattern and the entry will be near 70.00, which no doubt will be lots of buying orders.
In an investment mindset, long in front of 70.00 and put the out below 65.00 will be a solid strategy,
while in a trading mindset, an intraday reversal sign near 70.00 will be necessary as we won't know how and why it went there.
I like both though!
Let's see how it goes!
STOCKS IM BUYING THIS WEEKI think last week's pullback in equity markets was a good thing. The market got overheated and it gave us a reminder that stocks don't always rise. Memories and patience are short in the finance industry especially with some recent trends (blockchain) skewing people's perception that building wealth gets built overnight. Not the case, in the past 50 years of the SP500's history, it has NEVER had a stretch of over a year without a 5% correction or more. So relax, this is not doomsday, it is the ebbs and flows of Mr. Market playing his tricks.
Here is the list of stocks I'm buying or adding a position too.
- Icahn Enterprises (see earlier post)
- Scott's Miracle Grow (post coming this week)
- Bank of Nova Scotia
- Bank of Montreal
- Citigroup
- Home Capital Group (post coming next week)
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
- Valeant Pharmaceuticals
- Equifax
BNS, BMO, CM are banks I own in a fund and will simply be buying more of the fund (FIE.TO), but BNS and BMO are the two banks I would buy, if you go back one year and look at the worst performing Canadian bank, it's a pretty safe bet that the next year will be better. As well: www.theglobeandmail.com
I apply this same rationale to Citigroup , one of the less fortunate American banks from last year.
EFX was a stock I bought down around $90 when it sold off following a security breach announcement. I think the firm, fundamentally, is strong and will continue to regain ground. VRX is also one of those contrarian stock picks, after some allegations a couple of years ago for fraud and insider trading, I think they've found their bottom. They've also started to pay off debt which is never a bad thing for a recovering company.
I'm in the process of putting a valuation on HCG and SMG and will make a post in the coming week, this will be a buy and hold value-pick. I'm liking what I'm seeing so far.
Sentimental Short Hi guys. I always feel sad making short calls but somebody has to do it imho. Happy trading and please always wait for confirmations (e.g. lower high and lower low).
Long on a pull back to supportI'm looking to buy between $74-$75. The 50 day EMA on the daily time frame is about $76. We may bounce, but usually we go a little bit lower.
The 100 day SMA on the daily time frame and the 20 day EMA on the weekly time frame line up nicely around $74.
100 day SMA on Daily:
Weekly chart:
Worst case scenario, C pulls back to the 200 day SMA on daily (~$70), which would be an event better entry.
The trend is your friend ;-)
C bullish bat pattern,demand zone, and fig support combinationC just broke the B point, which makes this harmonic pattern more referable.
There are still some rooms to hit the entry area, while it's a worth trading long opportunity if it can be pulled-back there.
67 is not really a very important fig support, while I believe there will still be some institutional buy limit orders there.
I would like to do 2 entries of this trade, and the second one needs a intra-day reversal sign to do the confirmation entry.
Similiar pattern on $CNot sure about you but i see a similar pattern forming, we call it a double bottom, once it completes its gonna be nice. Take a look for yourself!! We may find resistance at red trendline, but once its break that resistance, my target on $C is $80. Im currently long. Trade at your own risk.
(Daily) "They" say it will be deeper than we think // Structure NYSE:C
It has started with the Head & Shoulders :D
Sorry about the "mess"
Safe Trades;
Citigroup - Expecting a short term correction to the downsideSince the start of 2016, price has been rallying in a 5-wave structure to the recent high at 69.81 earlier this year in August.
RSI has formed a divergence as well, giving us another confluence of a potential retracement lower from here.
We are expecting price to correct to the downside towards 61.60 or even lower towards 56.44 area in the short term before another move higher.
*Disclaimer - ensure that you have analysed the fundamental of this company and do your own due diligence before trading.
Citigroup (C) still has a ways to runI'm simply posting this chart as a reminder how far Citigroup (C) has fallen since its 2008 highs. Rising long rates will benefit the banking sector as banks borrow short and lend long, keeping the spread. Even though the stock has doubled off the lows, it's still priced at 1.0x book (cheapest in the sector, JPM is 1.7x book) and Barron's thinks the shares could appreciate another 50%: www.barrons.com
Citigroup Inc. $C - Channel Up Citigroup Inc. $C - Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance $68.70
CITIGROUP TEXTBOOK LONG SIGNALI really like this setup. Fundamentals are in favour of a long position.
I believe we are starting the next leg higher, it could take us in to 68-70$ area.
Blessings to you all.
Another Bearish Signal For Financials, CitigroupOn April 28, 2017, Citigroup stock ( C ) 20 day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 100 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 237 times and the stock does not always continue to drop. The median drop is 3.213% and maximum drop is 37.140% over the next 11 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 49.4113. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock has been neutral and not likely to produce volatile price swings.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -4.9549. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, but has begun to slightly move up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8428 and the negative is at 0.9875. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 66.5123 and D value is 62.8527. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock did not make it to overbought territory before recently reversing downward. This indicator does not always have to break above the overbought level before reversing, but there is always the slightest chance it could move up. The latter is not likely however due to the stock's position in its multiple trend channels and lines of resistance.
Four days prior to this cross below the 100 DMA, the stock crossed above the 100 DMA. This similar cross up and cross down within 5 trading days has occurred 11 times since the financial crisis recovery began. It has occurred in May 2009, June 2009, July 2009, June 2010, July 2010, August 2010, December 2011, October 2013, June 2014, July 2014, November 2015. The stock dropped 0.595%, 15%, 8.571%, 8.354%, 2.036%, 8.845%, 13.444%, 3.559%, 1.159%, 1.938%, 1.27% on the respective occasions. The minimal drop was 0.595% while the median drop was 3.559% over the next 11 trading days on these occasions.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down in the near term. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 1.39% if not more over the next 11 trading days.
C - Citigroup respects the Medianlines.Price gapped up to the seller zone to the tick.
Even price made a hagopian, means that price did not reached the centerline, I bet on the short side since C. is respecting the Medianlines so good.
P!
Citigroup (C) A Great Candidate For A Downside SpreadAlthough the banking sector has largely had a rally since the Presidential election, regulatory headwinds and near-term fundamental outlook and projections have seemed bleak for Citigroup’s growth potential. Long-term, the stock is a great purchase at a somewhat discounted price to its recent trading, but for our swing strategy, the latest break to the downside into a possible downtrend or consolidation is an opportunity for us.
If you’re looking for a 1:1 risk/reward trade with a skewed probability curve starting at roughly 62% chance of success to earn 100% ROI, then Citigroup is a gem in this turbulent market. Actually, we found this trade while scanning due to possibly having to close for a loss on our recent Alphabet (GOOG) trade due to management’s screw-up on an epic scale regarding extremist videos and advertisements on Youtube .
Anyways, here’s the trade we see:
Current stock price $58.46
Buy X Puts; 13 Apr 17 Exp; 58.50 Strike
Sell X Puts; 13 Apr 17 Exp; 58 Strike
Max Return on Risk/ROI: ~100%
Fun times.
Citigroup showing signs of multi-month improvementMulti-month recovery from USD34.52 February lows gaining traction as prices accelerate higher to pressure critical resistance at the USD60.95 range high of July 2015.
In much the same vein as AIG, Citigroup is slowly recovering ground lost during the 2007-2008 mortgage crisis. investor sentiment and momentum studies are slowly improving, suggesting further gains in the coming months.
Next significant resistance is at the USD75.85 year high of January 2009.
Citigroup is also showing signs of Outperformance relative to the strengthening US Financials Index.
C: Systemic risk, extremely overboughtCitigroup shares might be poised for a retracement here, we can expect a selloff to take place, if we don't move back above 56.78. I'd reccomend either shorting it, or buying puts. You can buy out of the money puts and sell bear put spreads to reduce costs (vs buying at the money puts).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
CITI BANK BARELY SURVIVING AFTER 2008CITI BANK IS ALSO A SHORT CANDIDATE FOR BANKRUPTCY. DON'T KEEPA NY HOPE AND IF YOU ARE BANKING WITH THEM CLOSE THE ACCOUNTS.
Barclays PLC GETTING READY TO FILE BANKRUPTCY BY 2022From 2007 high it is going down trend. And now in near future it will re-test the 2009 low around $2.75.(see green line in the chart) If it fails to hold then BCS will go pennies on the dollar. Though you might have missed the maximum profit ratio by shorting but still you guys have some hope as it is only trading around $8 range and soon it will free fall. Good luck to you all. It will be a painful as those trickling down might take some time.
