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Citigroupanalysis

Watching for Pullback Below $84 in Citigroup (C)Over the past month, Citigroup shares have appreciated 8.58%, outperforming both the Finance sector's 1.91% gain and the S&P 500's 3.92% increase. This relative outperformance may signal strength, but short-term positioning and market structure suggest a potential shift. Expecting a Sharp Move Below $84 – Option Flow Insight Despite the recent strength, I anticipate a significant downward move below the $84 level in the upcoming week. This expectation is based on notable option activity detected in the Times & Sales feed, specifically large put orders suggesting bearish positioning. In response to this setup, I plan to execute a bearish vertical spread, specifically: Buying the $84 puts Selling the $80 puts This strategy limits downside risk while still profiting from a potential retracement. Fundamental Picture Ahead of Earnings Citigroup's next earnings release is scheduled for July 15, 2025. The company is expected to report: EPS of $1.70 (+11.84% YoY) Revenue of $20.85B (+3.51% YoY) For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts: EPS of $7.38 (+24.03%) Revenue of $83.84B (+3.33%) While these figures suggest healthy growth, it's important to note that recent analyst estimate revisions have been modestly negative, with the EPS estimate decreasing 0.27% over the last 30 days. Citigroup currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a neutral sentiment from analysts. Valuation Metrics From a valuation standpoint: Forward P/E: 10.75, notably below the industry average of 15.02 PEG ratio: 0.61, versus the industry average of 1.26 This indicates that Citigroup is undervalued relative to its peers, especially when considering growth prospects, which could provide some support. However, short-term bearish flows may dominate price action heading into earnings. Industry Outlook The Financial - Investment Bank industry, which includes Citigroup, currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 96, placing it in the top 40% of over 250 industry groups. Historically, industries in the top half outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
NYSE:CShort
by Wiiso
Big Citibank Opportunity Citibank Opportunity - NYSE:C Company Market Cap: $82.2 billion Share Price Today: $42.68 Dividend: 0.53c per quarter (Annual Dividend of c.$2.06) Annual Dividend Yield: 4.82% Next Earnings Report: Friday 13th October 2023 Citibank (Citigroup) is the 20th largest bank in the world & a member of Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs) meaning it has stricter prudential regulation such as higher capital requirements and extra surcharges and more stringent stress tests. under the scheme deposits can be 100% guaranteed in the event of a crisis, which is not the case for smaller banks that are not considered systemically important. This additional security can add weight to a longer term hold for Citibank combined with a good 4.82% dividend yield. Citibank has recently been in the headlines with negative news for completing a management re-org with substantial lay-offs. Whilst the news is interpreted as negative, the chart appears to reaching a point of exhaustion after 31 months of downward price pressure and a roughly 50% reduction in price from $81 down to $42. We may be forming a 3rd higher price cluster or price launch pad here at $42. Earnings release is in a 4 and half weeks on 13thOctober and after 13 quarters of positive earnings the trend is green. Its worth noting that upon earnings release, the price can capitulate or ascend aggressively (historically this has been the way), this is why it is important to be placing bids or positions well in advance of the release (now) and on the day of the release we should be nimble and on our toes to capitalize or reduce risk with stop losses. Obviously for long term position players this is not all that important, we have our long term target and stop loss on the chart. There is a long term trade opportunity with a stop loss at BASE 2 at $34.37. As you can see the trade has a Risk/Reward of 4:1. People who want to play it even safer could wait for a bounce off BASE 2 but for me a retracement this low could mean lower price momentum and a break of the RSI resistance. This is why I am inclined to take a position now off this base well in advance of the earnings release. This is not my typical style of trade however I could not pass up the chart given the mid-term 31 month 50% reduction and exhaustion in price combined with the higher bases on the longer term trajectory, and to be honest the negative news really got me the contrarian in me rustled. If you look hard enough you can see a potential long term ascending triangle forming out into the 5 year time horizon. As a cherry to the trade, the dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for a systemically important institution – to big to fail. In Summary - Citigroup is one of the top 20 banks in the world and is considered systemically important. - Citigroup share price has been declining 31 months with an approx. 50% reduction in price. - Three Price Bases establishing higher lows are reinforced by a rising RSI support line. - To fully take advantage of the earnings release on 13th October 2023 positions need to be placed now as the stock is extremely volatile on the day of release. - If the RSI support line fails to hold this could be a warning signal of a break down into STRONG SUPPORT ZONE (Red). - The dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for a systemically important institution offering a little incentive for a longer term hold.
NYSE:CLong
by PukaCharts
21
Citigroup Faces Tough Times: 20,000 Job Cuts, $1.8 Billion Loss Citigroup, one of the largest banks in the United States, is navigating through challenging times as it grapples with a $1.8 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2023—the worst in 14 years. The bank's CEO, Jane Fraser, announced a bold restructuring plan, including a significant workforce reduction of at least 20,000 jobs, about 10% of its workforce, as part of a broader effort to streamline operations and enhance returns. The Financial Struggles: Citigroup's fourth-quarter results reveal a $1.8 billion loss, attributed to $4 billion in one-off charges and expenses. These charges include $800 million tied to the restructuring, substantial hits from its exposure to Russia, and the devaluation of Argentina's peso. The bank's quarterly performance is the weakest since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, underscoring the magnitude of the challenges it faces. CEO's Response and Restructuring Plan: Jane Fraser, Citigroup's Chief Executive, acknowledged the disappointing performance but emphasized the progress made in simplifying the organization and executing their strategic vision. The restructuring plan aims to cut costs and streamline operations, with a focus on reorienting the bank around its lines of business rather than geographical reach. Fraser plans to eliminate five layers of management, reducing them from 13 to 8, with business unit heads reporting directly to her. The cost of these changes is estimated to be as high as $1.8 billion but is expected to yield annual savings of up to $2.5 billion by 2026. Job Cuts and Organizational Simplification: Citigroup anticipates reducing its overall headcount to as low as 180,000 by 2025 or 2026, down from 240,000 at the beginning of the previous year. The bank had only cut 1,000 roles by the end of December, and the remaining reductions are expected to follow the completion of organizational simplification by the end of the first quarter of this year. Beyond the restructuring process, Citigroup plans to shed an additional 40,000 workers through exits from its consumer banking business in Mexico and other regions. Financial Impact and Market Reaction: Despite the challenging quarter, shares in Citigroup remained flat in early afternoon trading in New York. The bank acknowledges that the unexpected resilience of the U.S. economy has provided some relief, with credit card spending and corporate expenditures boosting revenues in the consumer banking and treasury services divisions, respectively. However, challenges in the corporate lending division, with a 26% drop in revenues, and a 25% plunge in revenue from sales and trading of bonds, commodities, and currencies, underscore the broader economic headwinds. Conclusion: Citigroup's announcement of significant job cuts, coupled with its worst quarterly performance in over a decade, paints a challenging picture for the banking giant. The bold restructuring plan led by CEO Jane Fraser signals a commitment to adapting to changing market dynamics and improving the bank's overall performance. As Citigroup navigates these turbulent waters, eyes will be on its execution of the restructuring plan and its ability to emerge stronger in the post-restructuring era. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether 2024 will indeed be the turning point predicted by the bank's leadership.
NYSE:CLong
by DEXWireNews
Trade Update #stocksThe Chart: Price has fully reversed from the bottom of the large range (rectangle) and has now broken out of the top end of the range. Despite todays rough down day I am comfortable with my position as long as price can hold above the 59 area. The Narrative: Banks are taking a bit hit on earnings but the quarterly results we not as bad as the price drop may seem. Given the run most including Citigroup have had, taking some profits into the quarterly results was some what expected. The recent move in interest rates, reopenings, and overall global growth should all be tailwinds for the sector. Unless there is a double dip recession, I think the banks have more room to run especially if we hold the 59 area for Citi specifically.
NYSE:C
by IngenuityTrading