Downloading...
Download

CNYUSD

CNY/USD Trend since 06 2007. Channel. Reversal zone.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. At the moment, the currency is stronger than the dollar. The main trend is a descending channel. The price is in it now. Secondary trend — breakout of the descending trend line. Price growth to the median of the channel, and in case of its breakthrough, to the resistance. If not, then a pullback to the lower zone of the channel. Local trend — The nearest events and news background, which can affect (not necessarily) locally (movements to the median of the channel, i.e., the middle, if it is positive) on the yuan rate. This, in less than 1 month, namely from October 22 to 24, 2024 will be held 7.16 XVI BRICS summit (short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in Russia in Kazan. Line graph for visualization.
Long
by SpartaBTC
5
China's money supply explodes.China's revision of its M1 money supply calculation in January 2025, which now encompasses individual checking accounts and assets held in non-bank financial institutions, seeks to deliver a clearer understanding of liquidity within its economy. The reported surge from $67 trillion in December 2024 to $112 trillion in January 2025 has ignited discussions, with some viewing it as a strategy to obscure underlying economic issues, such as a potential deflationary debt spiral. The People's Bank of China has declared a "moderately loose" monetary policy for 2025, aiming to boost the money supply and lower interest rates to foster economic growth, a move that may be connected to the M1 recalibration. This shift takes place against a backdrop of broader macroeconomic adjustments, including a 5% GDP growth target and initiatives to stabilize the real estate sector, as detailed in China's 14th Five-Year Plan for 2025.
ECONOMICS:CNM1Long
by BallaJi
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 26 - CNYUSD - (8th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing CNYUSD, starting from the 4-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my other videos on TradingView or on YT. If you are interested in private coaching, feel free to get in touch via one of my socials.
Education
by Road_2_Funded
DXY v's Brazil Russia India China B.R.I.C. CurrenciesNote how the two large pattern #HVF's kept you dollar long as the main directional trade from 2011 to 2022 But things may be turning around and this trade may, potentially be reversing. Often when commentators have given up on the idea of a multi polar world, end of dollar dominance , as price keep going the opposite direction. Is when the trade actually starts to kick into gear. These are major resource nations , with 40% of global pop. 30% of the land and well over a 1/4 of global GDP Would make sense to see this basket of currencies outperform our beloved Greenback.
TVC:DXYShort
by BallaJi
Asian Currency Crisis - Part two? Aussie Dollar Collapsing. RU Aussie Dollar looking extremely weak adding it to the list. Japanese Yen extremely weak China Yuan Extremely weak. There's a problem brewing in Asia / Oceania if the FRED does not start lowering rates you're going currencies like the JPY / CNY / AUD potentially lose 30-70% of its value against the United States Dollar. Japan cannot raise rates due to the leverage used by the BOJ to buy US treasuries and Japan Treasuries. China lowering rates will not work as its completely reliant on cheap US Dollars to function. Australia have also pivoted due to them having the highest household debt in the world, Australia relies on China to purchase resources, they cannot raise rates to deal with inflation the system cannot handle it. These could be the first major currencies to enter the point of no return debt to GDP ending up like Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, Lebanon Debt To GDP Ratio's JAPAN - 264% "GOV debt to GDP" AUSTRALIA - 113.60% "House hold Debt" CHINA - 80% "GOV debt to GDP" For people who are unaware once you go past 100% in debt regardless if its Government or household, there has never been a currency in history that has survived paying off its debt and retracing. Currencies failing will make debt cheaper to repay? well the second side of that is CPI / Inflation Japan & Australia cannot seem to get out of. Sanctioning Russia & forcing a new BRICS development has really backfired here.
Short
by FederalXBT
USDJPY | FRED RATE CUT / BOJ / QE to Infinity Emergency Is here. Japanese Yen running the risk of entering Hyperinflation like the Argentine Peso thanks to the USA. JPY Used to purchase US Debt while USA has Inflation problem has caused them to purchase more than expected including the FRED running (System Open Market Account (SOMA) (soft YCC) China cannot get growth due to US higher rates slowing business growth meaning > Bank Of China has to start rate cutting and essentially do extreme QE or China will collapse. Japan will be FORCED to not raise interest rates due to them owning the most US Debt (bonds) on low interest rates. Japan is experiencing spike in inflation and currency devaluation as people are figuring this out. China forced to QE to counter deflation Yuan will collapse. Japan forced to QE to counter inflation Yen will collapse. If Japan raises rates the BOJ & institutions have to offload US bonds collapsing the US Bond market as the interest rates will destroy the carry trade. FRED cannot pause they have no choice to start rate cuts within the next months. If the FRED does not do this Japan's demise will send the US bond market under forcing QE / YCC by the FRED sending the FRED balance sheet to all time highs. If the FRED does not do this China could experience a complete society breakdown. There's a log term H&S on the JPY/USD that was going to eventually be tested leading to a -47% of the JPY currency (they will be forced to QE to locals to deal with currency collapse like Argentina leading to even more devaluation. NIKKEI225 Adjusted for Japan M3 supply showing more and more strength since the 1980s alerting local people are starting to lose faith in the Japanese Yen. This is no longer a "get Inflation lower story" it has started a sovereign debt and sovereign currency crisis. If people are unaware how much power and the FRED has in this situation, this could provoke the start of a new Cold War. What happens when the biggest holders of US debt Japan / China implode? the entire US bond system implodes. Suddenly the countries like El Salvador getting their credit upgraded while the US credit gets downgraded are looking very smart right now. End Game.
by FederalXBT
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% DXY, 30% Cash. *All markets reacted negatively to news of Chinese citizens protesting the Covid lockdowns in fear of more supply chain disruptions. The Pentagon is currently devising a proposal to send smaller precision bombs that can be fitted onto rockets and allow for Ukraine to strike behind Russian lines as the US and NATO military inventories are dwindling in response to a now 9-month constant bombardment by Russia on Ukraine. Russia's plan to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure to demoralize Ukrainian's during what is expected to be a very cold winter is reminiscent of The Holodomor (Great Famine) under Stalin in 1932-1933 when Russia ignored natural factors and enacted repressive policies that contributed to a massive decline in Ukraine grain and killed 3-5 million people as a result. It appears that Russia is also intentionally exhausting military supplies from NATO countries (US mainly); which could possibly hamper future US intervention during potential future altercations between China and Taiwan. Elon Musk is "waging war" against Apple after Apple decided to suspend advertising and is mulling the idea of removing Twitter from the App Store . Apple takes 30% of all sales within the App Store, so Twitter would only be seeing $5.60 of the $8 iPhone users would pay for a Blue-Check. BlockFi did what everyone expected and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy today . DXY, Short-Term US Treasurys, US Equity Futures, EURUSD, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, Gold and VIX are up. Long-Term US Treasurys, US Equities, Cryptos, CNYUSD, NI225, HSI, N100, Energy and Agriculture are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 11/29 ; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am EST 11/30; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Brookings Institute at 130pm EST 11/30; Beige Book at 2pm EST 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14. * Price is currently trending up at $106.66 after bouncing off of the 50MA at ~$105.35, the next resistance is at $108. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $108.46, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 40.73 and is still technically testing 39.43 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 38.83 as it approaches a test of 45.65 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -1.28; it's still technically testing -1.21 support and if it can cross above -1.18 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 26.85 as Price bounced off a critical support level (the 50MA), this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest $108 resistance . However, if Price falls back down here it will have another chance to formally retest the 50MA at ~$105.35 as support before potentially retesting $103.15 support for the first time since June 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $105.35.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
Chinese yuan rebounds on Shanghai reopening hopesThe Chinese yuan rose to one-week highs on Monday, fueled by expectations that Shanghai, the country’s financial hub, will soon emerge from a two-month lockdown that has crippled economic activities in the city and weighed on the country’s overall economic recovery. The CNY traded at 0.1504 against the greenback on Monday, recovering further from an over one-week low of 0.1481 on Wednesday when the yuan weakened against a basket of 24 currencies tracked by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS). Still, the yuan has fallen below the 0.1570-mark against the USD since April as concerns over China’s economic recovery grew following Shanghai’s prolonged lockdown that has affected consumption, industrial production, lending, foreign trade, and other aspects of the economy. The RSI indicator is at least suggesting that this recovery in the yuan may not last. Slowing economy China’s zero COVID-19 policy has definitely taken a toll on the domestic economy. In April, China’s retail sales fell at the sharpest pace in over two years as the lockdowns in Shanghai hammered consumption and the supply of retail goods. There have been reports of food shortage in Shanghai, with state-run Xinhua News reporting that multiple botanists called on residents to stop digging and consuming wild vegetables. Industrial output, meanwhile, unexpectedly fell in April versus a year earlier, reversing the modest gain in March. The drop in China’s factory output last month was the steepest since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020. It came as lockdowns forced the closure of vital factories including those operated by local and domestic carmakers. Shanghai is one of China’s major auto production hubs and the lockdowns weighed on carmakers’ revenues in April. All-out effort to stimulate economy As investment banks and economists downgraded their outlook on the Chinese economy this year due to the lockdown’s impact, Beijing has vowed to all-out efforts to stabilize industrial and supply chains and boost infrastructure construction. On Friday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang acknowledged that the country’s latest economic challenges are worse than those seen in 2020. Li said the government is "at a critical juncture in determining the economic trend of the whole year.” He urged local governments to make every effort in bringing the economy back to its normal track. Shanghai reopening The Shanghai government is working to ease the city’s lockdown, issuing on Sunday an action plan that consists of 50 policies and measures to help stimulate the economy. The measures include relaxing the rules on resuming production starting June 1 and expanding the scope of subsidies for companies’ pandemic prevention and disinfection, state-run Xinhua News reported Sunday.
by BlackBull_Markets
Black Swan - US-China Phase 1 DealSpeculation for Macro: - 2018: Trump began trade war with China, and the market had the worst year in a decade (at the time). - 2020: US-China Phase 1 deal is signed, market crashes shortly after. - 2021: Market immediately rebounds and has the greatest bull market in history. IMO it was a run-up then sell the news by insiders, then BTD for the bull run to come. That deal is to expire 2022, and will likely be assessed soon. Check out the behavior of SKEW/VVIX/PCR right before the Trade Deal... Does somebody know something? Even if it is renewed, it is bullish long term but very likely a big flush for insiders to BTD. If China withdraws, it's recession - returning to a situation similar to 2018 with a tariff tit-for-tat except with current supply chain issues, pandemic, massive debt levels, and slowing global economy. One part of the deal entails China refraining from competitive devaluation of their currency. However, US is devaluing their currency through inflation (speculated). That is bullish for US equities, but CNYUSD is now at the top of a range: Should the deal expire, and China devalues their currency, the US will need to respond with more debt. Can the world handle more debt? Phase 1 Deal: www.reuters.com Full text found here: web.archive.org GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
8
CNY breaking major trendlineCNY has broken a major long term trendline against the US dollar. I believe there is more upside ahead for the Chinese Yuan. The Chinese gov will try to talk down the Yuan to dollar but that will not work without some major government intervention. Just today, they announced a hike in reserve ratio requirements for the first time since May 2007. This move didn't work then and it probably won't work now. It may slow the acceleration though. I would be looking for the Yuan to test its all time high of 16.66 area. Watch out for a throwback to .1558 area first.
Long
by ngordon
CNYUSD Leveling Up!And the first one up on the CNY series now, CNYUSD is definitely bullish to the nth degree. looking for a move up now and probably a few more after that. One thing at a time, so I'll be concentrating on the most immediate goals. I always say this, and I will say it again, nothing I say is financial advice. Think for yourselves! Fibonacci goals in green or purple, invalidation is in red. Fractals never lie and Fibonacci series shows us a few goals out of a million or more possibilities.
Long
by Rykin_Capital
ridethepig | CNY for the Yearly Close📌 CNY for the Yearly Close... In the usual tradition, this topping formation appeared to fit the bill! The correct way to play it was for sellers to proceed; dollar weakness was knocking while CNY was quite tenable. It is now obvious that the above mentioned development has been less time consuming that the initial legs higher: This means the position we are tracking into the yearly close appears quite harmless but is very alarming. Sellers are now threatening to occupy the lows, in addition it has been quite comfortable for them with Trump unable to say much, the Biden Whitehouse will ensure dollar devaluation with extreme care. This year has clearly been the year of the yuan. In order to chase the moves lower; let's look for some targets and areas to unload liquidity - I am tracking 6.242x for the minor targets and 6.040x for the major targets in 2021. This obviously recognises the charming continuations, sellers should look for any weak rallies to scale into towards year-end. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
CNY/USD Medium-Term Analysis: Weekly Market BreakdownIn this analysis, we started taking on the majors against the U.S. Dollar (USD), beginning with the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY). Despite its still lower status in comparison with the traditional majors (USD, GBP, EUR, CHF, JPY, CAD, AUD & NZD) and also its lower liquidity and overall current non-relevance in the wider FX market, it nonetheless scored the highest appreciation in the last quarter in USD terms, higher than any other traded currency, either major or minor, with over 5% up on the 'Rate Of Change' (ROC) for the last 15 periods on the weekly. With that in mind, we begin this series by carefully analysing this pair, taking into consideration major support and resistance levels, as well as divergences between price action on the IDC (i.e. 'broker-neutral') compiled chart & oscillator data (ROC, 15, W). For this specific analysis, we opted for not using Fibonacci levels and instead adopted price action pivot points for framing our perspective on market movements. We're hoping to continue this series on the other majors and (if time allows it!) dive into some of the minors as well. Wish you guys good trading and if you enjoy this analysis, please give me a like and share your ideas on the comments section, I'll really appreciate feedback from you guys and I promise to read and reply to each and every one of them as soon as possible. An amazing week for all of you and until the next post! :)
Short
by acsedward
🦠 CORONAVIRUS ⚠️How COVID 19 Impacts USD, EUR, GBP, CAD and CYN💬 As confirmed coronavirus cases ticked up in the US at a faster rate than in the other countries shown on the chart (a selection of EU countries Germany, Italy and Spain, the UK, Canada, and China) we have seen a subsequent weakness in the US dollar compared to the currencies of those countries (as seen by EURUSD, GBPUSD, CADUSD, and CNYUSD). As you can see within the "Stage 1" range, there was a divergence between confirmed cases in the USA (Yellow plotted line contained within the indicator tile) and confirmed cases in other countries. This then led to an apparent impact on how people viewed the US Dollar's strength as is shown by the "Stage 2" range. This weakness in the US Dollar helped in creating a significant uptick in these other base currencies when compared against the USD base pair. Further, you can see that not only did the initial divergence in corona confirmed cases between the USA and other countries have an impact, but as that divergence continues to increase as seen in "Stage 3" speculators are taking this into account and betting on seeing even more upside as seen within "Stage 4". Hit that 👍 button to show support for the content! Help the community grow by giving us a follow 🐣 ----- Conclusion: The weakness in the dollar has seemed to correlate with an uptick in confirmed COVID cases compared to the other countries. Given this correlation, one might assume that we won't see the downtrend in the US Dollar reverse until the confirmed Coronavirus cases numbers for the USA start to downtrend. ✨ Comments and feedback appreciated! ✨
by AlphaBotSystem
10
Chinese Yuan Is Going To Beat US Dollar Very HardStrong bullish rally and retracement at golden ratio: The Chinese Yuan has been moving up with a strong bullish rally since June 2007 to January 2014 that is almost seven years that the Yuan has been moving up against the US dollars. Then from January 2014 to January 2017 the Chinese Yuan moved down and retraced at 0.618 Fibonacci level that is the golden ratio therefore there were strong chances that it will again move up from this golden ratio and as per expectations the Chinese Yuan moved up again and took another powerful bullish divergence from January 2017 to March 2018 and this move was upto 11.48% for more than a year. Then from March 2018 the Chinese Yuan again started moving down against the US Dollar and at this time it is again at the same golden ratio of 0.618 Fibonacci level . Down channel and volume profile and other indicators: If we switch to the weekly chart then it can be clearly observed that from August 2018 the priceline of Chinese Yuan is now moving in a down channel. After August 2018 the price line has hit at the support of the channel on September 2019. Even though this time after hitting the resistance of the down channel the price action of Yuan is moving down but we can expect that this time the priceline will not reach the support of the channel. If we examine the price action of Yuan then in August 2018 we had the bollinger bands at the support of the channel. And when in Sep 2019 the price action was hitting for the second time on the support the channel at that time the bollinger bands was again at the support of the channel. But this time the Bollinger bands is above the support of this channel and there is a big distance between the support and the lower bands of the bollinger bands. Therefor this time the bollinger bands can play the role of biggest hurdle to stop the price action to move down up to the support of the channel. Here I have also placed the volume profile on the complete price action moving within this channel and after placing the volume profile it can be clearly seen that the trader’s interest is very low below the $0.14. That is almost the same level where we have the lower bands of the Bollinger bands. And the point of control of the volume profile is at $0.1450 that is above the resistance of the channel. Therefore there are strong chances that the price action can move up at anytime at least up to the POC level of the volume profile. Because the point of control of the volume profile always works as a center of gravity for the priceline and whenever the candlesticks move up move down it always pulls back the price action towards itself. And if we see the behavior of the priceline since August 2018 up till now then it can be clearly seen whenever the price action moved up or moved down then it always moves back to the POC level. Here I have also placed the stochastic and momentum indicators. And after placing these indicators we can observe that these both indicators are working in very synchronized manner with Bollinger bands. Whenever the price action hits the Bollinger bands support and stochastic and momentum both give the bull signals together then the priceline moves up to hit the resistance of the channel. Once it was happened on the candlestick of 27th August 2018 and after that the second time it was happened on the candlestick of 9th September 2019. At this time we can see the stochastic is again very close to the oversold zone and momentum is also bearish. Therefore I am again waiting bullish signals from these two indicators for the next bullish rally. Bullish harmonic BAT signal: The strongest bullish signal that I have received is that the price line of Chinese Yuan has completed a bullish BAT harmonic pattern on weekly chart. the formation of this harmonic move was started with the candlestick that was opened and closed on 2nd September 2019. And 1st leg was completed on the candlestick that was opened and closed on 28 January 2020. Then the priceline has been retraced upto 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level this was the first confirmation of the bullish BAT harmonic pattern. After this move we needed the Fibonacci projection between 0.382 to 0.886 Fib projection area of A to B leg and we can see that from 17th September 2020 to 9th March 2020 Chinese Yuan projected between this projection level that was the second confirmation for the bullish harmonic BAT pattern. And finally the priceline is again dropped down and retraced upto 0.786 to 0.886 Fibonacci level and this is a final confirmation of completion of bullish BAT pattern. Now at this time the price action is moving in the potential reversal zone of this bullish BAT and at anytime the price action of Chinese Yuan can move up with a powerful bullish divergence. And as per Fibonacci sequence of sequence if BAT pattern it can be project between 0.382 to 0.786 Fib projection level of A to D leg. Conclusion: We can expect buying zone from $ 0.1407 to $ 0.14 because at $0.14 we have strong supports. And realistically sell target can be from $ 0.1423 to $ 0.1448. If the Chinese Yuan will breakout the channel then we can even expect more powerful bullish rally against US Dollar for years.
Long
by moon333
3
ridethepig | CNY Market Commentary 2020.02.16On the technicals there is little to update while the resistance holds, despite the bounce via PBOC intervention on coronavirus risk flows. The only level in play to the topside is 7.0248 as it caps the highs in the current wave. Anything above will unlock a leg towards the next barrier at 7.0733. The coronavirus short-circuit sadly temporarily disrupted the USD devaluation / reflationary growth theme. I am still holding shorts and active looking for a test of the 6.825x. Anything below that will open the floodgates for the major break: As usual thanks for keeping support coming with the likes and comments, we'll open up the short-term flow after the Tokyo open in the comments below for those trading live!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Sticking With Gold in CNY Here we can focus on the realms of reflationary risks that are around the corner, the struggle to shake out bulls is identical to the struggle we saw in 2016 which is reassuring, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing issue. For those tracking the previous diagrams in Gold it is obvious in USD terms both on the Weekly and Daily. Weekly: Daily: What is surprising is that the boat is still not fully loaded which is quite unusual to see this late in the game. The swings otherwise always appear as waves which are being defended and the defender is always assigned to a direction! Very true; but waves in a macro trend are swings of more importance. So it should seem relatively normal to treat them with full sizings and extensions. Here is clearly a strong move in miners, though it involves the sharp threat of capitulation for bears. Which would make things much easier for trading XAU: On the other hand there is also risk from 2's 5's: Bears will have to overcome the entire flow which is now ready to continue marching forward towards the targets. For those tracking the end of year positioning flows for 2020 Q1, reflationary risks are around the corner!! After months of choppy waters , finally bulls are emerging from beneath the woodwork as we begin the flows towards 1650. I stick to my average forecast of XAUUSD $1650 and expect Gold to hit $1595, $1650 and $1800 on a 6, 12 and 24m basis. This is my final target in the 5 wave swing, afterwards I will expect Gold to enter in consolidation via profit taking. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
FX_IDC:XAUCNYLong
by ridethepig