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Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop from this level to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support. Pivot: 83.19 1st support: 80.90 1st Resistance: 84.34 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Bullish Outlook for USOILHi Traders! USOIL is in an ascending price channel as it looks to break back above the 75.00 level. Here are the details: The price action looks currently bullish; the market swings are getting higher, and the price is about to break back above the 20 EMA. Our idea here is to buy market dips leading up to the 20 EMA break. Short-term targets are levels around the 75.00 area, and long-term targets are levels near the resistance at 79.72. Preferred Direction: Buy Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
TVC:USOILLong
by BluetonaFX
SILVER Neckline BreakHi Traders! SILVER has broken below the neckline break in its head-and-shoulders pattern, and there is a possibility for a continuation to the downside if the market continues to stay below the neckline. Here are the details: After the initial momentum break below the neckline, the market is now retesting the neckline as resistance, and the 20 EMA has lined up perfectly with it. We are looking for the market to stay below both the neckline and 20 EMA and look for exit targets near the 21.90 level. Preferred Direction: Sell Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 23.650 Support: 22.681 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
CAPITALCOM:SILVERShort
by BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - USOIL Triangle/Range Zone Break OpportunityHi Traders!  Our USOIL range zone looks like it is on the brink of a possible breakout. A triangle pattern has now formed on the daily chart, and a recent lack of bullish momentum tells us that we may be breaking to the downside. One thing to note, however, is that there was a rare dragonfly doji candle pattern, which is a candle pattern that you must watch out for as this shows indecision. In this case, the dragonfly doji candle formed when there was a push to the downside, so there was some hesitancy from traders to continue pushing down. With this setup, we are looking for strong confirmation price action signals for entry. We are looking for a strong momentum break below the support line of the triangle, a strong momentum break below the low of the dragonfly doji candle, and a strong momentum break below the range zone support level at 66.88 (we MUST get all three). If we get all of this, then a good target would be near the key 63.61 level, as there is strong support there. Please remember to like, follow, and comment. We appreciate your support. BluetonaFX
TVC:USOIL
by BluetonaFX
4
USOIL WE WILL BREAK BACK ABOVE 74.00?Hi Traders! We have strong resistance around the 73.95 level here on USOIL as we have not been above the 74.00 price barrier since the beginning of May 2023. The price action on the chart tells us that the market wants to go there. We have had numerous attempts to break the 74.00 barrier. We also have swings from the range with higher highs and higher lows. If we do not break and close above the 73.95 pivot, we are likely to head back into the range. However, if we do break and close above 73.95, we need to see how the market reacts to the 74.00 level. Further to the upside, we have another pivot level at 76.88, which is just before the psychological 77.00 level. This is a great risk to reward setup as you can either trade the range with a small stop just above either the price pivot or just above the 74.00 level, or you can wait for a possible momentum breakout with confirmation of a pivot retest. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow, we would love to hear your thoughts! Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
TVC:USOIL
by BluetonaFX
2
Commodity OutlookRecession may be a red herring for a market fuelled by a supercycle While broad commodities have outperformed most major asset classes year-to-date1, the pressure of rising interest rates, a strong US dollar and fears of several large economies tipping into recession has led to a pull-back since the summer of 2022. In our Market Outlook, we argued that the current negative business cycle pressures on commodities are likely to be temporary and give way to the larger forces pushing the demand for commodities higher and constraining supply of those commodities. Historically, commodities have been a cyclical asset class, generally declining when the business cycle turns negative. But even history illustrates that commodity prices can continue to rise long after a business cycle has turned if fundamentals are supportive. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and 80s are a case in point. Admittedly they are unusual cycles but, today, we are likely to be living in another energy price shock. Energy price shocks continue Since we published our Market Outlook, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner countries (OPEC+) has announced a large cut to oil production from November 2022, amounting to 2 million barrels per day. As we expected in our Outlook, OPEC+ reacted to the price weakness in oil after the summer and sought to raise prices of Brent oil to over US$90/barrel (prices had fallen to US$84/barrel on 26 September 2022, just over a week before the OPEC decision). They have been successful in keeping prices above US$90/barrel since that decision but have laid the groundwork for further cuts by painting a pessimistic picture on demand forecasts (giving the group an excuse to intervene in the market again). Meanwhile, the Ukraine war shows no sign of improving and natural gas supplies into Europe from Russia have fallen to a trickle. The European Union has taken various measures to try to soften the shock. However, we view several of the proposals with scepticism. For example, introducing price caps on natural gas imports could simply divert natural gas to other countries and worsen the energy shortage for the EU. Interfering with price benchmarks, such as the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), could send incorrect pricing signals and lead to overconsumption of energy resulting in additional shortages2. Supply shortages of commodities extend beyond energy A combination of rising energy prices and interest rates have driven many metal smelters to shutter production. High fertiliser prices (petrochemical product) are also constraining crop yields. Looking across the commodity spectrum, all commodities have lower-than-normal levels of inventory. Base metal supply is especially low The inventory of base metals is considerably lower than their respective 5-year averages, yet base metals have seen the largest price declines of all the commodity sub-sectors. The markets are pricing in demand weakness from an economic deceleration. However, demand has not weakened yet. On the other hand, supply is declining fast. Let’s take the example of copper. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG)’s first forecast for 2022 copper balances (demand less supply), cast on October 2021, was for a sizeable surplus of 328 thousand tonnes. Its latest forecast (cast on 19 October 2022) is for a deficit of 328 thousand tonnes in 2022. Judging by historical revisions, their 2023 forecast of a surplus is likely to be revised down. Their initial forecasts tended to assume no production disruptions. Yet, as we have observed this year, production disruptions can be very large. China’s economic deceleration is countered by policy support China’s zero-COVID polices have slowed economic growth and, thus, its demand for commodities. That matters because China is the largest commodity consumer in the world. However, its central bank has been loosening policy and President Xi has called for an ‘all-out effort’ to increase infrastructure spending (and given local governments free rein to raise debt financing to fund these projects). However, the future course of China’s policy will become clearer after we write this blog. At the time of writing (21 October 2022), China's 20th Communist Party Congress is still in process and will wrap up in the coming days. Xi Jinping is poised to clinch his third five-year term in charge of the nation. We expect national security to take a greater role in policy priority than the economy. Commodity supercycle An energy transition and a revitalised global infrastructure spend are likely to drive the demand for commodities significantly higher over the coming years. However, today, we are living in the down-phase of a business cycle. Even though many commodity markets are visibly tight, commodities are not sufficiently pricing the tightness. The Inflation Reduction Act in the US and the Infrastructure Bill are both strong tailwinds for commodity demand. In Europe, the sharp focus on weaning off Russian energy dependency is adding a new urgency to the energy transition, and we expect to see accelerated energy infrastructure plans take place. Conclusion As a headline, economies going into recession doesn’t inspire huge confidence in a commodity rebound. However, history does suggest that an economic slowdown combined with high inflation has been associated with positive commodity and gold performance. The energy price shock has set off a vicious circle of supply contraction from metals, fertilisers, and other energy intensive commodities. The energy transition and infrastructure led supercycle remains in play even if short-term business cycle phenomena dictate headlines today. As we emerge from this phase of the business cycle, we may find commodity markets extraordinarily tight.
CBOT:AW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Gold trend analysis in H4 Time frame..XAUUSD price broke below $1,644, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the October decline from the $1,730 peak. Therefore, bears keep their sight on the October low at $1,617, below which the focus remains on the 2022 low at $1,615. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching higher while below the 50.00 level, suggesting that the rebound is likely to remain short-lived. On the upside, the immediate resistance is seen at the abovementioned 23.6% Fibo level, above which taking out the $1,650 psychological level will be critical to unleashing the additional recovery. The confluence of the bearish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) and the 38.2% Fibo level at around $1,662 will be a tough nut to crack for bulls. Overall, gold price action is likely to remain sideways, as investors will turn cautious heading into the all-important Fed rate hike decision.
TVC:GOLD
by OAurthor
Gold Has Broken Above the Resistance by a Large Candle Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Hi Traders, Gold on H4 has broken above the Resistance by a large red candle, It has also has been making HHs and HLs, so I am expecting that it goes up at least to 1841.84 ⬆️Buy now or Buy at 1808.8 ⭕️SL @ 1785.99 ✅TP1 @ 1841.84 ✅TP2 @ 1868.85 ✅TP3 @ 1905.2 We will have more FREE forecasts in TradingView soon ❤️ Your Support is really appreciated!❤️ Have a Profitable Day
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Fibonacci-Signals
Palladium looking like it wants to Roll OVERTA: Balance of Power indicator looks like it has made a reversal, when that happens we consequently dump but that is a sign of institutional buying pressure- as the sell pressure is rotated to a small percent of the market buying the cheaper lot. At an important traditional and Fibonacci level- therefore if we don't break above expect a retracement in the green zone which is marked by Fibonacci sequencing. -Megalodon (Rahim) Stay Safe, Trade Safe You are welcome to share your ideas below :) FX_IDC:XPDGBP
OANDA:XPDUSDShort
by BoSukas
Key Trading Plan For GOLDGold continues to bullish at the expense of weaken US Dollar. This safe haven is currently on bullish mode without any sign to stop anytime soon. Its better to wait for the price action to see the best trading plan. Key Trading Plan: i) SHORT from the current price to the Take Profit Target at support 1765.7 ii) LONG if the price breaks 1819.9 resistance level ‼️Disclaimer: Please be advised that we are NOT Financial Advisors. We are not responsible for the results of your Forex or CFDs trading. The only person responsible for profits or losses is yourself. You should not consider any market information, educational and analytical material as trading advice that defines your trading actions but purely as educational market material. Please be advised that S.I.D. Capital shall not be liable for any errors in quotes and trading platform software errors. ‼️This Channel and all information is intended for educational purposes only and does not give financial advice. S.I.D. Capital Signals is not a service to provide legal and financial advice; any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author (not advice or financial advice in any sense, and in the sense of any act, ordinance or law of any country) and must not be used for financial activities.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by SIDCapital
ZWZ2019-ZSX2019 - Commodity Spread TradingZWZ2019-ZSX2019 Wheat December 2019 - Soya November 2019 Interesting spread between the December futures contract of Wheat and the November contract of Soya. As it is statistically deduced from our software, in this case the Moore Research, we have a percentage equal to 87% in which this difference is reduced, and therefore, a normal convergence of the two values of the contracts that bring their distance closer to 0 rather than move it away. The very nice thing about this type of operation is the reduction of the volatility that can cause sometimes big problems. For example if on the soya there should be some important news its value could vary suddenly and the grain, being a correlated of it, would follow it consequently and it is for this reason that through the Spread Trading these potential unexpected problems are avoided. www.mrci.com
CBOT:ZWZ2019Long
by SwissTradingSchool