Downloading...
Download

Contraction

Are you shorting the bounce or waiting for confirmation?Japan’s Q1 GDP came in worse than expected: -0.2% QoQ (-0.7% annualized). Weak consumption, soft exports, and a fading external boost despite a weak yen isn't a great combo for Asia’s largest export economy. The Nikkei 225 reacted immediately, and the H4 chart is starting to reflect deeper structural pressure. 🔍 Technical Outlook: - Price reversed from the high of 38,745. - Price is testing the 50 SMA and could enter the Ichimoku cloud. - The cloud is signalling a twist, which could be a sign of momentum fading and the trend weakening or reversing. 📊 Projection: If the price closes below the 50 SMA and breaks through the cloud, further downside could be expected, with the target levels at - 36,800 (last consolidation zone), and - 35,570 (38.2% fibonacci retracement level and 200 SMA). Alternatively, if the bulls defend the cloud, we could see the price climb to the resistance level of 40,500 This is a classic macro meets technicals moment. A weak data print is lining up against the possibility of a technical rollover.
SPREADEX:NIKKEIShort
by JinDao_Tai
SHRIRAMFINANCE LOOK FOR BUY1. Trend and Moving Averages: - The stock is in an uptrend with a series of higher highs and higher lows. - The chart shows two moving averages, 9 and 21-period. The stock is trading above both moving averages, which confirms the uptrend. 2. Support and Resistance : - The chart shows a **support line** drawn slightly below the current price, around the 3,177 level. This is a key area to watch as it has acted as a floor for the stock previously. - There are also dashed lines indicating resistance levels above the current price, suggesting that the stock may face some resistance around those levels. 3. Volume : - The volume bars at the bottom indicate that there is reasonable trading activity. Higher volumes on up days generally support the bullish momentum, but you should also watch for any significant increases in volume on down days as they might signal distribution or a potential reversal. 4. Candlestick Patterns : - The recent candlesticks suggest a consolidation phase after a strong move up which is base on base structure. This is typical after a sharp rise where the stock may need to digest the gains before attempting another leg higher. 5. Overall : - The stock appears to be in a healthy uptrend with defined support. The consolidation phase near the highs suggests that the market is digesting recent gains. A breakout above the resistance could lead to further upside, while a break below the support level might indicate a pullback or trend reversal.
NSE:SHRIRAMFINLong
by minion_traders
2
The Contraction, Expansion, and Trend PhaseContraction, Expansion, and Trend Phase *also known as the Forex Master Pattern * The contraction, expansion, and trend phase, or the Forex master pattern, is a trading methodology that focuses on identifying and capitalizing on the recurring patterns and phases that occur in the markets. They are based on the concept of these three market cycles. Institutional players play a significant role in shaping these market cycles observed in the markets. 1.Contraction Phase This phase represents a period of low volatility and consolidation in the markets During contraction phases, institutional players often accumulate positions and establish their trading biases. Institutional accumulation during this phase can create the necessary liquidity and order flow for a breakout in the subsequent expansion phase. 2. Expansion Phase The expansion phase occurs when market volatility increases and the market breaks out of consolidation, leading to bigger price movements. Institutional players execute their strategies by inducing price movements to entice retail participation. Depending on their goals, institutions may manipulate prices upward or downward, creating liquidity for their trades while taking advantage of retail sentiment. Institutional buying during this phase can increase the movement in price and volatility, leading to rapid changes in markets and trends. 3. Trend Phase Once the market establishes a clear direction following the breakout, it enters the trend phase. The trend phase marks the end of the contraction, expansion, and trend phases, which are marked by sustained directional movements powered by institutional profit-taking activities. Retail traders often find themselves on the wrong side of the trade during this phase, triggering panic, liquidations, and potential market reversals. The panic caused in this phase can eventually lead to liquidations. While this is not a strategy, it is a versatile methodology that works on any timeframe and assets as long as it has enough volume on the market. You can develop many different types of strategies using the Contraction, Expansion, and Trend Phase .
Education
by Traders_Endeavors
ETHBTC is about to make a historical moveAnything that follows is not to be taken as financial advice. This is the Binance weekly chart for ETHBTC, with a single indicator loaded on: the Bollinger Bands Width Percentile. The BBWP is a volatility indicator that measures whether or not we should be looking for the price action of the examined asset to contract or expand in relation to its own past volatility, calculated by the BBW. Simply put, it tells us if we should be expecting the asset to be in a mostly sideways price action, or if it's appropriate to look for expansion. Make no mistake, volatility is a direction-neutral indicator, meaning it's inherently neither bullish nor bearish. We can see some flashing red and blue bars in the background, they're there to warn us about an extremely high (red) volatility environment, or an extremely low (blue) one. Generally, when the asset is in an extremely high volatility environment, it's wise to expect it to cool off, therefore looking for price action to generally reduce its turbulent behavior. This implies the exact opposite for when the volatility is extremely low. With default settings, which I'm running, extremely high volatility is considered to be between 98% and 100%, while extremely low volatility is found between 0% and 2%. Let's focus on the blue bars for this analysis. Only once in the history of this chart, two weeks straight of extremely low volatility can be observed. From there, the expansion led to an initial move up, and then ultimately a move down of -26.95% from the open of next week to the lowest point of the move. Right now, ETHBTC is waiting for a massive expansion after twelve weeks straight of extremely low volatility. If it was to expand to the downside from this point, a move of roughly the same impact would see this asset retest the june 2022 low. However, spending more time contracting, usually means having a more explosive move when the time comes. In the case of a downside move, I don't think it would be too crazy to look for a retest of Q1 2021 highs, anywhere around the 0.045 level. That would make for about a -33% move from here, but I'd say there's fair concern for said move ending up being more destructive than that. This could happen along with BTCUSD breaking into a new bull market while ETHUSD fails to catch up just like it did in the past, although that's just speculation on my part. Remember, volatility is direction-neutral, while price action might look bearish right now, there is no way to tell where a future sustained volatility expansion might lead this asset to. Personally speaking, I believe that if it were to expand to the upside, a retest of the ATH would definetely be within reach, seeing as ETHBTC has been consolidating for about 22 months. It would certainly result in a massive move, more than a 2x from here, since the ATH is around 0.15 and the asset is now trading at around 0.067, but we've seen crazier things in crypto. Whenever the expansion happens, and wherever it brings ETHBTC to, good luck and stay safe.
by Andewyl
1
ESCORTS is currently sitting at a major demand zone!The stock is currently spotted at an important upwards curving area of demand that has been active for the past 4months. The demand zone has been enough times tested in the past 4months and proved its strength over all test occasions. The stock has traded between the demand zone and the control price for the past 2 months and the entire 2 months range can be thought of as an accumulation phase. The times when a stock gives a breakout after a long accumulation phase , what follows usually is the pick up in volume and momentum. The stock can begin a strong rise from current levels towards the INR3500 region(10% from CMP). INR 3100 currently is a good support area for the stock. A short term trade using 3090 as SL and INR3300(control price) for a target, would not be a bad trade either. CMP - 3130 SL - 3090 Target 1 - 3300 Target 2 - 3500
NSE:ESCORTSLong
by neeraj_2_sharma
BTC futures Entry Stop and Target with money management -Price is in contraction and building shelf at the high - buyers will freak out as stops start getting run and fall back into previous swing - buyers from last low want to step up and buyers that missed the last run will pile in at the higher low. - stop is under known buyers that held and entry is at buyers that lifted price to new high - this is based on principles of supply and demand, buyers and sellers and contraction and expansion - this may work or it may not.
CME:BTC1!Long
by pauliet
The true thinking process of the banks - Forex Master Pattern Hello there traders, in this article I have compressed information which will be useful for every trader. There is this trading methodology which very little know of (Even though its public information) that revolves around a market cycle which consist of an contraction, expansion, and trend. This article will just open the doors to your understanding of these principles, and will just go over the basics, to master it you must practice it a lot and identify many different zones in the markets. Practice Makes Perfect __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ What will be gone over in this article? This article will explain what exactly are contraction phases, expansions, and trends and how to identify these different market phases. Get a basic understanding of what institutional traders look for and how they operate vs Retail. What exactly is the value line and how it acts like the "center of gravity". __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ What is the Forex Master Pattern? The “Forex Master Pattern”, is a alternative type of Technical Analysis which shows the true psychological patterns of the Financial Markets. This pattern has 3 Phases, which is known as the Contraction, Expansion, and the Trend Phase, which will complete one market cycle in this term. This pattern also creates a concept known as the “value line,” which is the fair value zone or the neutral belief zone where buyers and sellers agree is the fair value. Consider it in terms of the center of gravity. This pattern is present on every timeframe and in every market with enough liquidity and volume, and shows the behavior, psychology and activity of retail, professional traders, institutional traders and investors and market makers. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Contraction Phase The contraction phase is the setup and it indicates a period that the market is in consolidation, with a tight and narrow range. During the contraction phase there is going to be low institutional volume and they are avoiding positions and trades. It is best to avoid trade entries in this phase and wait for a clear trend after the expansion. The Expansion Phase The expansion phase is the play and its when the institutional traders begin to accumulate positions. There are many things that institutional traders would do in this phase. If the institutional trader or "market maker", main goal is to buy the asset, they will drive the price lower with their money to draw in retail traders to place shorts and sell their positions which will generate liquidity for "smart money" to buy cheaper. and vice versa. If the institutional trader or "market maker", main goal is to sell then they will make the price go up a little with their own money to lure in traders who will buy their bags so that "smart money", can sell in a profit and overvalued. The Trend Phase The trend phase is the final phase that completes this market cycle. Once the institutional traders feel like it is time for them to start taking profits, will commence the distribution cycle which causes price to move down. All this profit taking from "smart money", will eventually lead retail traders to understanding that they were in the wrong side of the trade and the panic, liquidations, and stops start. Eventually they panic and start buying back in, and this generates liquidity for institutional investors and traders to take profits, leaving retail with overvalued bags, for the cycle to repeat itself again. For the short scenario it'll be a vice versa too, they will move price up with their own money, cause retail to believe the price is going up so that they get into wrong trades (Retail buys, Smart Money Shorts), they start accumulating short positions or selling their bag and with the trend drive price back to value or even below, and at this point retail again begin the panic, liquidations, and get stopped, and ultimately sell their bags to institutional traders who buy at a discount. This pattern is also similar to the accumulation and distribution cycle and are basically the same theories with different executions. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ What is the value line? Previously in this article I have explained how contraction zones create fair value lines. Value lines can be described as the average price and the neutral belief zone for price. It sorta acts like an center of gravity. Knowing the HTF value lines can be your key to success since you will understand the general direction of the market. Value lines help you visually understand what territory the market is in, like if its consolidating at value you should avoid entering any trade at all cost and wait for the expansion and perhaps the trend. These value lines and contractions can also be used to find certain broadening wedge ranges and the longer price stays in a proper broadening wedge the more volatile it will get. The broadening wedge starting from the origin of the contraction is rare to find but can create some pretty good scalping environments and conditions. Conclusion: Well I hope this was educational, and it gives you another way of understanding the markets. This article was pretty basic in understanding this pattern and methodology but hopefully now you have more awareness. The best way to start understanding these principles is to practice in the charts and learn to identify the three phases. This isn't a strategy but more like a theory or a concept which explains the behavior of the market. With proper understanding you can create many different strategies since this is extremely versatile and works on any market and timeframe if the liquidity is there. So go on the charts and try to identify the three phases and see how you can improve your trading game!.
Education
by Traders_Endeavors
2
SOL SHORT CONDITIONAL SETUPSOLANA is above the 12 hour value line on an expansion and on the lower timeframe on the trend line ribbon it is now at a downtrend. I am personally entering a short only if it retraces around to the 14.3 to 14.5 area and it rejects that zone only. Solana doesn't seem to have the best sentiment at the moment and after long pumps to above its value, this dump could possibly take place, it could break this channel and continue lower but I am waiting for a retracement to the resistance of the bearish channel and a rejection. What is a value line ? It occurs when a local contraction (Low institutional volume) happens and generates an average price. And acts like an center of gravity. Whenever its around this level it then creates an Expansion which violently and with volatility moves it either above or below the value line which shows the sentiment of retail. After this is when you take advantage and enter within a trend that was proven to be valid. These entries may be rare but are still profitable none the less...
Short
by Traders_Endeavors
Monday BTC LongI decided to place this small BTC long to see if this Monday move was a fake move. The last 4 hourly contraction value line was plotted on the chart and an expansion below has happened, perhaps an uptrend to the value line can happen? TP1: 16150 TP2: 16349 TP3: 16530 TP4: 16700 SL: 15788 ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Contraction Plotter Indicator and Expansion Index: ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Long
by Traders_Endeavors
1
GMT SCALPING DOWNTRENDThere seems to be a downtrend on GMT 15 Minute timeframe after the contraction and expansion phases. As long as the trend is respected you could probably make some decent profits. ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Contraction Plotter Indicator: www.tradingview.com
Short
by Traders_Endeavors
ETHUSDT SHORT SCALPI found this possible short scalp trade, the value line is the TP and is way below and ETH expanded above and broke the trendline with low volume. A SSL Exit arrow also formed, I am taking a chance with this scalp. TP1: 1212.03 TP2: 1181.8 SL: 1249.7 Note: A contraction may be forming and the stop loss is pretty tight, I am going to wait for the close of this candle to see if this is an actual contraction. ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Contraction Plotter Indicator which will be able to be bought monthly with Patreon soon:
Short
by Traders_Endeavors