Corepcepriceindex — Trading Ideas on TradingView

GOLD ANALYSIS 27/06/24 Current Gold Price Trends: Gold is currently trading around $2,328.135, having rebounded from $2,315 due to a weaker US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields The anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year supports the bullish sentiment for gold . Impact of Core PCE Index on Gold: The Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation measure, will be released tomorrow. This data can significantly influence gold prices as it shapes Federal Reserve policies A higher-than-expected Core PCE Index could indicate persistent inflation, potentially leading to higher Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar, which may exert bearish pressure on gold prices . Conversely, a lower-than-expected Core PCE Index may suggest slowing inflation, prompting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, thereby supporting bullish momentum for gold Technical Analysis from the Screenshot: The chart shows key resistance levels at 138.00% ($2,397.895), 161.80% ($2,416.014), and 175.00% ($2,426.064) Fibonacci retracement levels for bullish scenarios. Key support levels for bearish scenarios are indicated at 138.00% ($2,257.790), 161.80% ($2,238.630), and 175.00% ($2,228.003) Fibonacci retracement levels. If the Core PCE Index is extremely low, gold may break above the resistance levels; if it is extremely high, gold may break below the support levels.µ Reminder : i will update with news , possible entries Stay Tuned and Support me & Max Share and Boost Brothers & Sisters Love to help you all

HEADLINE/CORE PCE - Inflation dips down into to historical norms U.S. Headline PCE - Lower than Expected ✅ Actual: 2.64% Exp: 2.8% Prev: 3.0% US Core PCE - Lower than Expected ✅ Actual: 3.16% Exp: 3.4% Prev: 3.5% As highlighted on my recent Macro Monday post Core PCE is the Feds favorite metric for measuring inflation (as it excludes volatile price swings from the likes of energy and food and gives a good indication of the underlying inflation trend). PCE is also considered more comprehensive and a more consumer led report than CPI which focuses more on a lessor altered fixed basket of goods (compared month to month). CORE PCE Core PCE has come in this month lower than expected at 3.16% (expected 3.4%). This is great news for the fight against inflation. HEADLINE PCE Separately, Headline PCE has just dipped under the 3% level down to 2.64% which is getting very close to the Federal Reserves long term target of 2%. Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. A sub 3% Core PCE next month would be ideal and demonstrate further easing of inflationary pressures. For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review this weeks Macro Monday released earlier this week. PUKA

EUR/USD edges lower as eurozone inflation slides EUR/USD is slightly lower on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0883, down 0.21%. The euro continues to look sharp and is poised to record its fifth winning week in a row. Eurozone headline inflation fell sharply, but the core rate ticked higher. In the US, the Core PCE Price Index was within expectations. ECB policy makers must be pinching themselves today, after eurozone headline inflation tumbled to 6.9% in March, down from 8.5% in February and below the 7.1% estimate. The massive drop was driven by the sharp decline in energy prices. Inflation hasn't been below 7% since February 2022, but the news was not all good, as March core inflation accelerated to a record 7.5%, up from 7.4% in February. Core inflation is seen as a more accurate gauge of inflation trends, which could spell trouble for the ECB in its battle to contain inflation. The ECB didn't flinch from hiking rates by 50 basis points earlier in the month, even though it was in the midst of the banking crisis. With core inflation remaining stubbornly high, the central bank will have to remain aggressive with its rate path. ECB President Lagarde has suggested that the banking crisis, which shook the financial markets, could dampen demand and lower inflation, but so far, that hasn't been the case with core inflation. What can we expect from the Federal Reserve? Market pricing has been on a roller-coaster. It was only a few weeks ago that Jerome Powell's hawkish testimony on the Hill had the markets expecting a 50-basis point hike, but the banking crisis squelched any thoughts of an oversize hike. The likelihood of a 25-bp hike is currently at 57% and a pause at 43%, according to the CME Group. The core PCE price index dropped to 0.3% m/m in February, vs. 0.5% in January and the estimate of 0.4%. On an annualized basis, the index ticked lower to 4.6%, in February, vs. 4.7% in January, which was also the estimate. This is within expectations and thus unlikely to have any impact on the Fed rate decision. EUR/USD showed little reaction to the release. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0916, followed by 1.1072 There is support at 1.0774 and 1.0618