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Coronacrash

Moderna. Why Anti-Covid19 Juggernaut Goes 'The Bloodmachine'It's gone 5 years or so... (Duh..? 5 years, really? 🥴) since everyone was talking about COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines, "world will never be the same again", and so on. - And now?.. - It's gone. It's absolutely gone..! Since nothing last forever and no one should chase a feather, or dust in the wind. This is why we at our 💖Super-Duper Beloved @PandorraResearch Team decided to build this idea, as a educational idea to learn, even this story is about single Moderna stock, and we have reasonable considerations about fundamental, technical and price movement perspectives. Well.. Let's the story begin... Over the past few years, Moderna's stock has experienced a significant decline, primarily due to several key factors. Here's a detailed explanation of why Moderna's stock has been moving downward: 1. Declining Demand for COVID-19 Vaccine The primary reason for Moderna's stock decline is the waning demand for COVID-19 vaccines. During the pandemic, Moderna's mRNA-based vaccine was one of the first and most widely used, leading to a surge in sales and profitability. However, as the pandemic transitioned into an endemic phase, demand for vaccines decreased substantially. This shift has resulted in declining sales for Moderna, impacting its revenue and profitability. 2. Sales Guidance and Performance In recent years, Moderna has faced challenges in meeting sales expectations. For instance, in 2025, the company forecasted sales between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, which was significantly lower than analysts' expectations of around $2.9 billion. This discrepancy led to a sharp decline in stock prices as investors became increasingly pessimistic about the company's future growth prospects. 3. Cost-Cutting Measures To mitigate the impact of declining sales, Moderna has implemented cost-cutting measures. The company plans to reduce its cash operating costs by $1 billion in 2025 and an additional $500 million in 2026. While these efforts aim to improve profitability, they also reflect the challenges Moderna faces in maintaining its financial health without strong vaccine sales. 4. Competition in New Market s Moderna is expanding into new markets, such as the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine space, with its product mResvia. However, this market is highly competitive, with established players like Pfizer and GSK already present. The competition and uncertainty about market share have contributed to investor skepticism about Moderna's ability to drive growth through new products. 5. Delayed Break-Even Point Initially, Moderna aimed to break even on an operating cash cost basis by 2026. However, this goal has been pushed back to 2028, indicating a slower-than-expected transition to profitability. This delay has further eroded investor confidence in the company's ability to execute its strategic plans effectively. 6. Valuation and Market Performance Moderna's stock has underperformed both the industry and the broader market. The stock trades below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting a lack of momentum. Additionally, Moderna's price-to-sales ratio is lower than the industry average, which might suggest undervaluation but also indicates a lack of investor enthusiasm for the stock. 7. Analyst Sentiment and Profitability Forecasts Analysts have become increasingly pessimistic about Moderna's prospects, with many not expecting the company to turn profitable again until at least 2029. This negative outlook has contributed to the downward pressure on the stock. Furthermore, estimates for loss per share have increased, reinforcing the bearish sentiment among investors. In summary, Moderna's stock decline is primarily driven by declining vaccine demand, missed sales expectations, increased competition in new markets, delayed profitability, and negative analyst sentiment. While the company is taking steps to adapt to these challenges, the path to recovery remains uncertain, contributing to ongoing investor skepticism. -- Best 'No more Covid' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
NASDAQ:MRNA
by PandorraResearch
1
Corona death analyses in GermanyWelcome to my Corona Death Analysis *Note because the chart was inserted as an image, the scaling may have shifted slightly, simply scale at the right edge until the orange zero matches the zero line of the chart. First of all, I know Corona is a delicate subject and also that I analyze the deaths here seems to work a macabre, but the fact is that the numbers are rising and this can have an impact on the German economy, this analysis serves as a complement to my DAX short analysis and is purely scientific nature. The Dax analysis can be found here (German Only) Let's get to the analysis: As we can see from the chart, deaths increased rapidly between January and February, reaching a high of ca 1138. In February, a bearish SKS formed at the high which had also already reached its target of 371 deaths. This target line is very often reached again after the Unterstreiten in later upward movements or correction phases and serves us thus as a first "target line" Furthermore, we can take from the chart an ABC Correct which has the following death numbers as a target. Target 1 435 Target 2 705 Target 3 900 Target 4 1451 Target 5 1846 Here the death number of 900 is to be seen as the first strong resistance. At 1451 I expect the end of the rising numbers for the first time, whereas 1846 deaths would be the maximum and at the latest here a trend reversal should take place. If you liked this idea, I would be pleased about a click on the Like button ;) If you have any questions, suggestions or a different opinion, don't be afraid to use the comment function. Thanks a lot Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that this is a pure analysis and only reflects what my eye shows me ;) This analysis is for informational purposes only and is scientific in nature. This analysis is not based on any fundamental data! This analysis is not an investment advice and should not be considered as a buy, sell or hold signal. Always do your own research before investing and seek the advice of a qualified person. I am not an investment advisor or similar and do not make any investment recommendation here.
TSE:5909Long
by Highrisk221
Omicron Weighs on Global StocksWe cautioned readers yesterday to exercise caution with stocks and this advice was warranted, as stocks have dipped further into negative territory. Global stocks have pushed lower with news of the first case of the Omicron strain of the Coronavirus was confirmed in the United States. We have broken through what appeared to be strong support at 4580, then 4564, taking out several levels below, and finally finding support at 4504, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. All of these levels we have discussed in the past, and we gave comments to yesterday's report keeping readers updated. The Kovach OBV is quite bearish, but we are currently seeing another meager attempt at a rally, which is currently facing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI at 4545, another one of our levels. From here it depends on how the markets will interpret this news further. A rally will have to break 4580 and cross the vacuum zone above for stocks to attempt a recovery. Further fallout could break 4504 and test the 4400's, with 4487 and 4462 being the next targets. We still advise caution in buying this dip as the fallout may persist, or we may see at least some volatility as markets jostle for footing.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Corona(Covid 19 vaccine) stock that can explode in 2021A little-known biotech is trying its hand at developing a coronavirus vaccine. Can it succeed? over the past year, Vaxart stock has soared over 1,250% because of its spot in the lucrative coronavirus vaccine race. Its stock performance even outpaced those of biotechs that have already brought their coronavirus vaccines to market, such as Moderna and BioNTech. In fact, over 30% of Vaxart stock has been sold short. Vaxart claims to have created an experimental coronavirus vaccine in the form of an oral tablet. One could potentially self-administer the vaccine pill, which is stable at room temperature. This would allow patients to order the vaccine online and have it delivered for at-home use. At the moment, Vaxart's experimental coronavirus vaccine is only in phase 1 clinical trials, with a new data readout expected by next week. Unfortunately, it's impossible to conclude how the experimental vaccine will work on humans from animal models. Hence, the candidate's phase 1 data release will likely be a make-or-break moment for Vaxart. Vaxart is under investigation by both the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) for insider trading and inaccurate statements regarding its role in Operation Warp Speed (OWS). Even though Vaxart has more than $133 million in cash and equivalents with no debt whatsoever, that's not nearly enough to move forward. Right now, it could cost billions of dollars to run a potential coronavirus vaccine through clinical trials involving tens of thousands of participants. The company will likely sell more stock to pay for its research and development (R&D) expenses or apply for grant funding -- just to stay afloat. Vaxart is far riskier than the other coronavirus vaccine drugmakers out there. Its corporate conduct is under federal investigation, and its vaccine candidate is in far too early a stage to draw any definitive conclusions about. With a market cap just south of $1 billion, it will undoubtedly become a very undervalued stock if it can bring a coronavirus vaccine to market. Moderna, which has done so, projects $11.7 billion in revenue from its mRNA-1273 vaccine alone. However, the probability of Vaxart achieving anything remotely similar is up for debate. Short-sellers and passionate bulls will be arguing over the stock for the next year. If you believe in Vaxart's science and have the stomach for a roller-coaster ride, then go for it.
V
by AlenCiken
Possible Stock Market CrashNow this an interesting one, Traditional Markets Closed last candle very bearish as shooting star and with selling pressure, also we closed below the previous candles close, indicating more bearish momentum, We also confirmed the 4 drive bearish RSI divergence, which is hefty After the first bearish divergence we had on the monthly we crashed about 21.13%, 1 Year 1/3 later we had a third crash caused by corona and a 3 drive rsi divergence, which is about double as big from last crash Now we confirmed a 4 drive rsi divergence, and the government initiating a second lockdown, aswell as the elections happening, We very well could crash a third time and this time looking at the previous crashes, this would put us at 1720
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Alrightdude
The Corona Virus Narrative by Trading-GuruThe global death toll surpassed 200,000, and the markets are surging. Nobody would have ever expected this, so let's take a deeper look at all the Corona news events and their impact on Bitcoin. The NY Times shared an article with the timeline of the progress of the Corona virus so far, which I used for this idea. JAN. 11 China reported its first death. JAN. 20 Other countries, including the United States, confirmed cases. JAN. 23 Wuhan, a city of more than 11 million, was cut off by the Chinese authorities. JAN. 30 The W.H.O. declared a global health emergency. JAN. 31 The Trump administration restricted travel from China FEB. 2 The first coronavirus death was reported outside China. FEB. 7 A Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm died. FEB. 13 There were more than 14,000 new cases in Hubei Province. FEB. 14 France announces the first coronavirus death in Europe. FEB. 19 Hundreds leave the quarantined cruise ship. FEB. 21 The virus appears in Iran from an unknown source. FEB. 23 Italy sees major surge in coronavirus cases and officials lock down towns. FEB. 24 The Trump administration asks Congress for $1.25 billion for coronavirus response. FEB. 24 Iran emerges as a second focus point of the virus. FEB. 26 Latin America reports its first coronavirus case. FEB. 28 The number of infections in Europe spikes. FEB. 28 Sub-Saharan Africa records its first infection. FEB. 29 The United States records its first coronavirus death and announces travel restrictions. MARCH 3 U.S. officials approve widespread coronavirus testing. MARCH 11 President Trump blocks most visitors from Continental Europe. MARCH 13 President Trump declares a national emergency. MARCH 15 The C.D.C. recommends no gatherings of 50 or more people in the U.S. MARCH 16 Latin America begins to feel the affects of the virus. MARCH 17 France imposes a nationwide lockdown. MARCH 17 The E.U. bars most travelers from outside the bloc for 30 days. MARCH 19 For the first time, China reports zero local infections. MARCH 23 Prime Minister Boris Johnson locks Britain down. MARCH 24 India, a country of 1.3 billion, announces a 21-day lockdown. MARCH 25 The United States leads the world in confirmed coronavirus cases. MARCH 27 Trump signs coronavirus stimulus bill into law. APRIL 2 Global cases top 1 million, and millions loser their jobs. APRIL 6 Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved into intensive care. APRIL 12 Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved into intensive care. APRIL 14 President Trump planned to stop U.S. funding of the W.H.O. APRIL 17 President Trump encouraged protests against some state restrictions APRIL 21 Officials discovered earlier known U.S. coronavirus deaths in California. APRIL 24 The European Union, pressured by China, watered down a report on disinformation. APRIL 26 The global death toll surpassed 200,000. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru Recent success stories
by Trading-Guru
4
AD Ratio Suggests Birth of a New Bull Market!AD Ratio Suggests Birth of a New Bull Market! Or the madness of crowds. The Advance-Decline Ratio (ADR) is a simple measure of how many stocks increase versus how many decline. A ratio of 1 means 1 company’s stock increases to every 1 that declines. A ratio of 4 means 4 increase to every 1 that declines. It is a good measure of the bullishness of the market participants. The magic number I am using for this analysis is an ADR of 4, as anything above 4 increases to 1 typically indicates a turning point in the market. Chart Setup: Price – Log Weekly AD Ratio – 10 Bar Moving Average + 200 Bar Moving Average AD Ratio Red Line = 4 Indicating Extreme Bullishness There are two stories here. You need to decide which one you believe. Pre 2008 Crash – The Madness of Crowds. During the Financial Crisis crash from 2007 to 2009 the crowds were simply wrong. Extreme ADR indicated only temporary market bottoms, which were followed by brief rallies then market collapse. Post 2009 – The Birth of Bull Markets. Since 2009 the market participants signaled extreme positive sentiment with an AD ratio above 4 on 9 separate occasions which all indicated the end of the bear market and birth of a new bull market. This suggests one of two things: 1. During a major market crash the crowds are overly optimistic, underestimating the full impact of the economic devastation. 2. During a long-term bull market, the crowds are correct, in fact, it is the crowds of course, who power the bull market. The Key Point. The Corona Crash has shown us 2 extreme bursts of ADR buying above 7 for the week’s March 9 and April 6. This means either the birth of a new bull market or the radical underestimation of the impact of Corona on the economy. Final Summary. I am not convinced either way. Part of me thinks that this is the start of the new bull market, because in fact governments have done everything possible to stimulate the economy and save jobs and industry, there is no other choice apart from instant economic devastation. Interest rates will remain close to zero for the next 10 years and in governments stimulate inflation that the debt will eventually reduce by itself (according to the Economist April 24th Edition) The other part of me thinks that we simply cannot move to a new market high without further market correction to account for the large losses in future earnings. Do not forget. This market is driven now by central banks, Trump and Macro-economics. This market will turn on its head with a few massive headlines. Let’s have a discussion, let me know your thoughts below, I will try to reply to all. If you Like, then Like and Follow to get more updates. Stay healthy. Barry
SP:SPX
by liberatedstocktrader
11
Learning From 5 Markets Cycles & The Crashes That Ended ThemTo put into perspective what could happen in the current market climate is always helpful to study historical market behavior. For this analysis, I am using Gann Boxes a great drawing tool from TradingView. Although each market cycle is different in duration, boom and bust, they share common characteristics. The ability to be unpredictable, erratic and wipe out wealth. Another trait they all share is the ushering in of a new era of wealth building. Only the new era that we face may be built on deflation, significantly weakened currencies and potentially a new world order. Additionally, in the west, the distribution of wealth is very seriously skewed toward the super-rich. Things will need to change. Anatomy of wealth creation and destruction. • The 60s and 70s ended with an 80% loss of gains accumulated. • The 80s ended with Black Monday which wipes out 38% of gains (relatively mild) • The Dotcom Bust wiped out 60% of gains • The Financial Crisis wiped out 100% + of gains So far, the Corona Crash has been relatively mild, thanks to massive government intervention, with currently 25% of gains lost. The question you must ask yourself is: Is this the end of the crash? Is the retracement of the market commensurate with the actual economic activity & jobs market collapse? Just be clear all options are on the table, including a retracement to Zero, for the S&P this is close to 700 points. No one knows the future and we humans are notoriously bad at predictions. What do you think?
SP:SPXShort
by liberatedstocktrader
18
S&P500. Deep Technical Analysis, Mixed Messages + 3 OutcomesWhen analysing daily chart price moves to determine the future direction of a market, it is important to use a good mix of indicators each focused on a telling a different story. In this analysis I will be using a few of my favourite indicators: 1. Price – the most important indicator of all 2. Volume – the power behind the price trend 3. RSI – Price Strength Indicator 4. Money Flow - A Price & Volume Indicator 5. On Balance Volume – A Price & Volume Indicator By having a mix of price and price volume indicators we can see is the indicators agree with price (confirm) or they contradict the price direction (Divergence). Analysing Price & Volume Price Down–Volume Up (PDVU) In an uptrend this may indicate a crisis, panic selling or simply when a stock is going out of favor. The pressure is on the sell side and to sell they have to accept lower prices. A strong negative signal! Price Up-Volume Down (PUVD) In an uptrend this is very bearish as it suggests that although prices are rising, there are fewer participants suggesting people are backing away from the higher prices. This also infers that the trend is weakening. In a downtrend it suggests a continuation of the downtrend. Indicator Analysis • Relative Strength Index – Confirms the current short-term uptrend in price • Money Flow – Confirms the current short-term uptrend in price • On Balance Volume – Flat Not Confirming Uptrend Conclusion & Outcomes We are seeing mixed technical analysis messages here. Volume says down, RSI & oney Flow say up, OBV is not indicative. So, what can we hypothesise as the outcome? Well there are 3 possibilities. 1. Price Moves Down from Here (2,800) to the Current Crash Low of 2,00 points 2. Price Moves up to psychological level 3,000 and then collapses to 2,000 points 3. Price Moves Up to challenge previous highs. What possibility do I bet on? I think 2 is most likely, followed by 1, then 3. Why, because I believe that the full economic devastation wrought by the virus has not yet revealed itself. The USA is very badly impacted, and this index measures the core base of American Wealth Creating Companies. My heart goes out to our American friends who are impacted by the 2,000 deaths per day. Barry
SP:SPXShort
by liberatedstocktrader
11
When to Get Into Stocks During a Market Crash? SP500 AnalysisDo you feel it? The FOMO. Fear of missing out is a common phenomenon, and I imagine it is starting to creep in right about now. The last few days have seen the market begin to claw back some of its losses, so the key question is… When should I get back into the market? To answer this question, you have to formulate the risk-reward situation. To do this let's establish a few “facts”. • The S&P500 is building a trading range between 2140 and 2,700 points • The Virus Outbreak, especially in Europe and the USA is far from over • There is real economic damage being incurred But the FOMO is still there, so let's consider your options. (See the Chart) 1. If you believe the market will rise from here, you have a 19% upside to the next resistance 2. The market could, however, move down 17% 3. Worst case scenario could be a further decline of 26% to the 2000 and 2007 Market Highs 4. The total upside from here is 29%, back to the 2020 all-time high 5. The total downside is 43% to the 2007 high Risk Reward 1.4:1 It would appear for now that the market participants have priced in what they know. I expect that the S&P500 will trade between 2,100 points and 2,700 points for the foreseeable future. Potential options to get back into the market. 1. Buy towards the bottom of the “New Trading Range”. 2. Buy on a breakthrough into target 2, above 2,700 points 3. Buy when price moves into the value zone below 2,100 4. Start scaling in now and keep on buying into the dip using DCA (dollar cost averaging) Do you think there is more downside risk than upside risk? What do you plan on doing? Let me know in the comments.
SP:SPXShort
by liberatedstocktrader
25
Short US marketUS cases climbed by 13,000 to 68,000 cases (stats from worldometer site) already and it seems like the rally 2 days ago just took a small turn downwards. I still think it will continue heading downwards till either vaccine is released or when the numbers are better controlled. Because looking at the growth rate, it doesn't look like its slowing down and many countries have started partial shutdowns and I think the impact on their economy will be huge but the real effect on the economy can only be seen at a later stage.
CShort
by Trader_hao
The Corona Virus Conspiracy ------ WAKE UP IT'S ALL PLANNED MartyBoots here , I've been trading the markets for 13 years and I have see this Panic before What is unusual is that the Corona virus could have actually been used to manipulate the masses and even other countries Who needs real war when you can just create a deadly virus Anyway let me know in the comments what you guys think Please like the Video to help my work This is not my normal video , I just thought I would put it out there because there are a few very fishy elements to this situation , this is also evident in the charts
TVC:SPXLong
by MartyBoots
32