Corporate — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Corporate governance reforms are working for Japan Japan1 is trading at a 33-year high, despite a challenging global macro backdrop. At 15x forward Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio, Japan has been trading at a valuation discount versus global peers, for a considerable period of time. We are finally starting to see a number of catalysts help narrow the wide valuation gap versus global peers – an improvement in corporate governance, rebound in domestic consumption post the pandemic, strong earnings results in FY3/23 and a weaker yen. This has led to a notable influx of overseas investor capital into Japanese stocks for 8 weeks in a row. This rally was initially stoked by Warren Buffet publicly investing in Japan’s five leading trading companies. Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffets industrial and insurance conglomerate also said it intended to hold onto the investments for the long haul and could increase the size of its holdings to as much as 9.9%. The Japanese equity rally has also been fuelled further by a combination of strong macro-economic data and solid earnings results which saw ¥5Trn in buyback announcements. On the macro front, the re-opening driven rebound in domestic demand is supporting the economy. Recovery in Travel demand boosts business confidence According to data on travel and tourism from the Japan Tourism Agency (JTA), spending on domestic travel reached ¥4.2Trn in Jan- March 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels slightly. The rapid recovery in inbound consumption is also a tailwind with the number of visitors to Japan in April back up to 73% of the 2019 average. Strong travel demand is supportive for business confidence. In tandem, the May services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached its highest level since the survey began in 2007. This is consistent with trends in consumer sentiment evident from the May consumer confidence survey which showed an improvement in the consumer confidence index for the third month in a row2. Rebound in domestic demand aids growth According to preliminary estimates, GDP in Jan-Mar Calendar Year (CY)23 grew by 0.4% following two quarters of negative growth3. The main driver was private second demand, with consumption rising 0.6% and capex up 0.9% quarter on quarter (QoQ)3. Even public investment, which has been weak for a while, rose 2.4% QoQ contributing 0.1% to GDP growth. On the flipside external demand, highlighted in the export trade data, contracted 4.2%, dragging down headline GDP growth by 0.9%. While inbound spending, classified as services exports in the GDP statistics, increased 5.6% QoQ, goods exports contracted 6.5%3. Fast forward through years of deflation, inflation is beginning to trend higher. Inflation triggered by structural labour shortages is forcing companies to raise wages meaningfully and re-think their pricing strategy. So, while the rest of the world is battling inflation fires, Japan is trying to ignite one. However, the most recent inflation print in May showed a surprising slowdown in Tokyo core price gains. Slower inflation is good news for households, which are spending more as the economy re-opens. It also gives further ammunition for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to maintain its stance on ultra loose monetary policy. BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledges that Japan’s economy continues to require significant stimulus to maintain a goal of stable demand-driven 2% inflation. Owing to which, we have seen the Japanese Yen decline 5.51%4 versus the US dollar. This in turn has made Japanese exports cheaper aiding Japanese export companies. The myth that Japanese companies do not reward shareholders has been dispelled now Japan’s Fiscal Year 31 March 2023 earnings season witnessed results that were resilient overall. What stood out was the large increase in the number of share buyback announcements ¥5Trn. This was not a consequence of profit growth alone but more likely a result of the changes of the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) Price/Book (P/B) criteria as discussed here. Share buybacks have attracted foreign investors and is providing an important tailwind for Japanese equities. Corporate governance reform has been a thematic in Japan for seven years. However, this time we are seeing reform make breakthroughs. We got early indications from the mini-March annual shareholder meeting that showed Japanese investors voting more actively at AGMs. The next major catalyst will be the June AGM season. In regard to the potential impact to the new TSE guidelines on Japanese companies, feedback initially was mixed. However, we have seen 15%+ moves on the day of reform announcements by Japanese companies which confirms the market is clearly rewarding companies that are being proactive. Solid earnings results provide a tailwind for Japanese equities Japan’s Fiscal Year 31 March 2023 earnings results were resilient highlighting sales growth 16.4% YoY and 2% in net profits YoY5. The sectors that guided for the highest earnings growth in Fiscal Year 31 March 2024 are the ones that benefit from lower materials prices, namely electric power & gas, pulp & paper, and glass & ceramics. The domestic demand-led sectors are posed to benefit from reopening and inbound tourism, including land transportation, retail, and financial. They also issued the next strongest earnings guidance.

Fundamental and Technical Analysis | January week 2, 2023 Table of Content: 1. The World Bank 2. Jerome Powell 3. Mass Layoffs 4. Corporate Headline 5. Technical 1. The World Bank The World Bank has recently announced a slash in the forecast for global growth. This year's global growth forecast is reduced by nearly half, to just 1.7%, from its previous projection of 3%. It would be the third-weakest annual expansion in three decades, behind only the deep recessions that resulted from the 2008 global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. “For most of the world economy, this is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind,” Georgieva said. “Why? Because the three big economies — U.S., EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.” Furthermore, The World Bank projects that the European Union’s economy won’t grow at all next year after having expanded by 3.3 percent in 2022. It foresees China growing 4.3 percent, nearly a percentage point lower than it had previously forecast and about half the pace that Beijing posted in 2021. 2. Jerome Powell In a recent statement led by Jerome Powell, he expressed his highest level of hawkish sentiment towards the economy. He noted that inflation is the foundation of a healthy economy and can require the central bank to take actions that are not necessary, but popular. Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with measurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.” He wants to resolve the issue he initially created, previously, he was insistent that inflation was going to be transitory and now there is a clear indication that it is not and will require major efforts to bring it down. Why was Powell hawkish? Financial conditions are unintentionally loosening and he does not want to see it because that will increase the probability of a rebound in markets which could mean a rebound in inflation. - Some of the world’s largest asset managers such as BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments and Carmignac are warning markets are underestimating both inflation and the ultimate peak of US rates, just like a year ago. (Bloomberg) - “Central banks are unlikely to come to the rescue with rapid rate cuts in recessions they engineered to bring down inflation to policy targets. If anything, policy rates may stay higher for longer than the market is expecting,” a team of analysts including Jean Boivin, the head of the Institute, wrote last week. BlackRock is underweight developed market equities and it prefers investment-grade credit to long-term government bonds. - JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to 6% to fight inflation, which would be higher than most are expecting this year. 3. Mass Layoffs In order to bring down inflation, the Federal Reserve needs to slow down the economy. It is common sense to see that an economy will not go down until consumers stop spending which results in loss of employment. - One of Wall Street's biggest banks plans to lay off up to 3,200 employees this week, as it faces a challenging economy, a downturn in investment banking, and struggles in retail banking. It is one of the biggest rounds of layoffs at Goldman since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Goldman Sachs is having difficulties in the stock market, underperforming. - Bed Bath & Beyond reported a net loss for the quarter ending Nov. 26, 2022, of $393 million. That's a widening of 29.7% from the $276.4 million loss in the comparable quarter of 2021. Furthermore, the Q3 loss is worse than the retailer's projection last week of a $385.8 million loss. These inadequate results will lay off hundreds or thousands of employees in the company. On the other hand, the stock rallied by double digits, emphasizing again that the stock market likes when employees get fired to increase profit margins. - Coinbase announced Tuesday that it was laying off 950 people, about 20% of its staff. The job cuts come only a few months after another major round of layoffs. The crypto brokerage firm let 1,100 people go in June, about 18% of its headcount at the time. Again, the stock still rallied by double digits. It is notable to mention that the brother of the former Coinbase product manager, Nikhil Wahi, was sentenced Tuesday to 10 months for his role in a scheme to trade on confidential information about when the cryptocurrency exchange was going to list new tokens. A comparable phenomenon I start to visualize from these and recent layoffs is the 2021 stock splits. When firms announced stock splits in 2021, their stock would surge. In 2023, when a company announces layoffs, the stock surges higher (until they run out of liquidity). 4. Corporate Headline - The cyclical growth rebound, possibly triggered by the Chinese reopening, is being priced in or could go higher (major resistance at SPX $4,250). Macau sees deserted streets and Casinos after reopening (Reuters). - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. recorded its first quarterly revenue miss in two years, signaling the global decline in electronics demand is starting to catch up with the chip giant (Bloomberg). This issue will take months to recover as it has to adapt to the oversupplied market. - Apple is Broadcom’s largest customer and accounted for about 20% of the chipmaker’s revenue in the last fiscal year, amounting to almost $7 billion to stop buying key components, and instead, produce pieces themselves. - Blackstone Inc. lost a bid to end rent stabilization at Manhattan's largest apartment complex after a judge ruled in favor of tenants at Stuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village. - Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 player in mortgages, is stepping back from the housing market. This is a negative signal for the housing market, prices are too high and few can afford these houses. Once homeowners realize the Fed is not going to ease interest rates anytime soon, the housing market is going to slow down dramatically and individuals are going to lose their homes. Renters and Airbnb will slow down real estate further as they will not be able to pay their mortgages and will be forced to get rid of the houses, greatly increasing the supply. 5. Technical Analysis - Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving toward positive momentum and volume remains below average (bullish). - If S&P500 breaks the sloping resistance (channel), prices will rise significantly as individuals will assume the market is already priced-in, plus, showing: a break in pattern resistance; higher-low; and bear market sentiment reducing. - This is a similar pattern to the 2000 market crash where SPX broke a major trend and resistance, then followed to fall 34%. I point out the negative indication in most of my recent analyses, this is because the negative indications are far greater than any positive singular indication in this market environment. Overall, I have not changed my outlook and I am keeping my government bonds. I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels.

Corporate Credit Conditions Part 1 Since credit has far greater potential to create systemic issues than does equity, corporate credit conditions are much more important to the Federal Reserve (Fed) than changes in equity prices. If you have interest in macro, monitoring and understanding the basics of corporate credit is a must have skill. If there is any one thing that might actually cause a Fed pivot, it is disfunction in this market. There is a significant amount of current commentary around the sharply higher all-in-yields of high yield (HY) and investment grade (IG) corporate debt. In most cases the pieces conflate extreme price weakness in the large credit ETFs (HYG & LQD) with credit distress. Most pieces seem to conclude that the declines are linked to declines in credit quality and highlight financing problems in the sector. Most of that commentary suffers from a misunderstanding of the relationship between credit and Treasury spreads, what the price declines/yield increases are communicating about macro conditions, and how vulnerable companies, particularly IG companies, are being forced to refinance into a higher rate environment. In February 2022 I published a piece on credit conditions that covered using the TradingView platform to monitor secondary market credit spreads and conditions, why the declines in most credit ETFs had nothing to do with credit quality, and the basics of monitoring credit on the platform. That piece is linked below. The short course: 1) Corporates trade at a yield spread to treasuries. The spread compensates the corporate debt investor for the higher risk of default. 2) If Treasury yields rise, their dollar price declines. Since corporates trade at a yield spread to treasuries, if treasury yields rise, so do corporate yields (prices decline). 3) Since corporate spreads are generally far less volatile than Treasury yields, in most time periods, corporate total returns are driven by changes in Treasury yields rather than changes in corporate spreads. 4) The lower the credit quality, the wider the spread or default compensation. For instance, BBB rated corporates have more credit risk and thus more spread/yield above Treasuries than A rated bonds, 6.27 verses 5.65%. The difference of 62 basis points is the markets compensation (risk premium) for owning the riskier bond. The chart is a weekly chart of the option adjusted spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA Corporate Index back to the 1997 index inception. OAS is the standard way of assessing the credit spread compensation over and above the Treasury rate. The higher the OAS, the more compensation the investor receives. The bands are plotted 1 and 2 standard deviations above and below the from inception date median value. The large spikes higher in 2008 and 2020 are the great financial crisis and the pandemic. Spread compensation is only now back to the long term median. This after spending most of the last decade trading nearly a standard deviation rich to the long term median. I view this as the residual of the Feds QE translating to richer than normal asset prices. In short, there is no evidence of credit distress in the broad IG market. There is also, at least in this chart, no compelling value argument to be made. However, credit spread is only part of the equation. Remember that corporate total returns are more a function of changes in base or treasury rates than in changes in corporate spreads. In the next installment we will focus on the IG and HY markets in detail, some fundamental observations and finally, the correlation between rates and the major credit ETFs. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.

Processing Spreads Provide Fundamental Clues Some futures markets offer contracts that are related to others and are processed products of the commodity. Understanding the price relationships, history, and paths of least resistance of the processed product versus the original input can provide valuable insight into supply and demand fundamentals. Moreover, these relationships shed light on other related assets. Market structures are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The soybean crush spread Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Monitoring corporate profits There is so much data at our fingertips, but we need to understand how to use and interpret the information. Processing spreads are invaluable tools as they are critical variables for market calculus when forecasting the path of least resistance of prices. The crude oil and soybean futures markets offer liquid futures contracts in products that can reveal significant trends, warning signs, and calls to action. Anyone who undertakes a home improvement project knows that the job will not go well without the correct tools. Trying to hammer in a nail with a screwdriver is far from optimal. Tightening a bolt with an ax is a disaster. The best tool leads to the optimal result. The processing spread is one of the most critical tools in my investment and trading toolbox. Market structure are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle In the world of commodities, market structure are integral pieces of a puzzle. When put together, they provide clues about the path of least resistance of prices as they reflect and can be real-time indicators of supply and demand fundamentals. A commodity’s market structure includes: Term structure- Price differentials for nearby versus deferred delivery periods. Location differentials- Price differentials for delivery of a raw material in different regions. Quality differentials- Price differentials for differing grades, sizes, or composition of the same commodity. Substitution spreads- The price comparison of one commodity for another that can serve as a substitute. Processing spreads- The margin or differential for refining or transforming one commodity into its products. Together, the various pieces that comprise a market’s structure create a picture that often points to higher or lower price paths. Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The processing spread is one of the valuable tools in an analysts’ toolbox. It tells us if demand for the products is rising or falling. Consumers often require the processed product instead of the raw commodity. The differential between prices of the input, the commodity, and the output, the product, is a critical fundamental measure. Narrowing processing spreads signal falling demand while widening spreads are a sign that supplies are not keeping pace with requirements. Since futures contracts prices are constantly changing, processing spreads can be volatile. When the commodity and product trade in the futures market, the differentials provide a unique supply and demand perspective for traders and investors. There can be many reasons for price variance in processing spreads. However, comparing them to historical levels can serve as real-time indicators of fundamental forces that determine the underlying commodity’s price direction when exogenous factors are not impacting the overall refining or treatment process. Many commodities do not offer futures contracts in the products. The soybean and crude oil markets are exceptions. The soybean crush spread Soybean futures trade on the CME’s CBOT division. Soybean products, soybean meal, and soybean oil also trade in the futures markets on the CBOT with separate and independent futures contracts. Soybean meal is a critical ingredient in animal feed, while soybean oil is cooking oil. Both have other uses. Processors crush raw soybeans into the two products; the oil is the liquid from the crushing process, while the meal is the solid substance. The soybean crush spread can be highly volatile. The monthly chart shows the soybean crush spread over the past fifteen years. The spread traded to a low of a quarter of one cent to as high as $2.1950. The low was in 2013 when soybean futures were trending lower from the all-time high in 2012 at $17.9475 per bushel. The high was in October 2014 when soybean futures were consolidating at lower levels. The move to the high was because consumers bought soybean products at lower prices around the $10 per bushel level. More recently, the crush spread signaled that soybean futures had run out of downside steam. After trading to a high of $16.7725 per bushel in May 2021, the oilseed futures fell below $12 in October. When soybeans were on the high in May, the crush fell to a low of 52.75 cents. At high soybean prices, consumers backed off buying the oilseed products, leading to a price correction that took the price below the $12 per bushel level in October. Meanwhile, falling prices caused demand for products to return. The crush spreads traded to the most recent high at $1.9050 during the week of October 18. The rising crush spread was a sign of robust demand that lifted the raw soybean futures from the recent low. The November soybean futures chart shows the rise from a low of $11.8450 to the $12.50 level. The price action in the crush spread was a signal that demand for products would lift the soybean futures price. The processing spread action signaled the price bottom over the past weeks. Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Crude oil refiners process the raw energy commodity that powers the world into products, gasoline, and distillates. The NYMEX futures market trades contracts in crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. Heating oil is a distillate fuel that is a proxy for other distillates, including jet and diesel fuels. Refineries process crude oil into the oil products by heating them to different temperatures in a catalytic cracker. The price differential between the input, crude oil, and the output, the products, are “crack spreads.” Rising crack spreads point to increasing demand for oil products. When they fall, it is a sign of oversupply or weak demand. Crude oil futures reached lows in April 2020 during the height of the global pandemic’s impact on markets across all asset classes. The NYMEX crude oil futures weekly chart highlights the bullish trend since April 2020 as the energy commodity has made higher lows and higher highs. The weekly chart of the gasoline crack spreads highlights the bullish trend since March 2020. Gasoline is a seasonal commodity that tends to reach highs during the spring and summer months and decline during the winter as drivers tend to put more mileage on their cars during the warm months. However, at the $17.63 per barrel level at the end of last week, the gasoline crack spread was appreciable higher than the peak in October 2020, when it reached $11.62 per barrel. The gasoline crack spread has provided bullish validation for the path of least resistance of crude oil’s price. The weekly heating oil or distillate crack spread chart also displays a bullish trend. Distillates tend to be less seasonal than gasoline as jet and diesel requirements are year-round. At the $22.53 per barrel level at the end of last week, the heating oil crack was far higher than its October 2020 peak at $9.96 per barrel. The crack spreads have supported the rising crude oil price as they point to robust product demand. Monitoring corporate profits While processing spreads can provide insight into the path of least resistance of prices for commodities that are inputs, they are also real-time earnings indicators for companies that refine or process the raw commodities into the products. Refiners or processors tend to buy the input at market prices and sell products at market prices. The refiners and processors make significant capital investments in refineries or other processing equipment. They make or lose money on the processing spread. When they widen, they experience a profit bonanza; when they fall, times can get rough. When the spreads rise above the cost of the process, profits rise. Low processing spread levels can lead to losses. Valero (VLO) is a company that refines crude oil into oil products. The chart shows that the high in October 2020 was at $44.88 per share. In October 2021, VLO was over the $80 level at the end of last week. Rising crack spreads have lifted profits for the oil refiner. Archer Daniel Midland (ADM) and Bunge Ltd. (BG) are leading agricultural processors. Soybean processing is one of the many business lines for the two companies. The rising soybean crush spreads have lifted profits for the companies. In October 2020, ADM shares reached a high of $52.05 per share. At the end of last week, the stock was at the $66.22 level. BG shares reached a high of $60.50 in October 2020 and were trading at the $88.33 level at the end of last week. The rise soybean crush spreads at least partially supported rising profits and higher share prices for ADM and BG. Processing spreads are real-time indicators for the demand of the commodities that are the inputs. They are also real-time earnings barometers for companies that process commodities into products. Any tool that improves your ability to analyze markets is worth keeping in that toolbelt. --- The full article and spread charts are available using the link below. You can also sign up for the Monday Night Strategy Call below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

Yield spreads say more selling ahead During several previous liquidity crisis in 2001,2008,2012, 2016 the investment grade corporate yields spread over treasuries hit 200+ bps ... right now at an average spread of 150 basis points, may suggest more pain ahead before capitulation is reached. In other words investment grade corporate bond yields may be still too low. Based on what we've seen during several previous liquidity crisis the cost of borrowing in corporate credit may need to rise another 50 basis points before this is over.

Market slaughter houses In this screencast and links below I expose what's going on in market manipulations. In essence large organisations - who shall remain nameless - are busy buying back their own stock in an attempt to stabilise Wall Street and other markets. This is likely to give small investors a sense of security that they should buy stock. Price - to the minds of the big boys - is likely to move north as the small fish come in. Then the big boys sell off!! Oh sure - this is a gamble by the big boys. How big? Nobody really knows for sure. Estimates are in the region of Trillions of US dollars. Yes the big boys have a secret 'war chest' with which to fight the markets. And the 'big' manipulate money out of the pockets of the poor. This is Corporate America - innit? References: 1. Corporate buybacks keeping the markets afloat (at this time). 2. Why would a company buy back its own shares?

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