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Costsbasis

Hodl'ers Dominate - More confidence comes into the marketIf you you refer back to my posts on crypto you know I have set-out a consistent approach to trading these markets - LTC is no exception. LTC is still a unique case however, with a majority of the market being under water on their equity, Hodl'ing has dominated this market. Hence, I refer back to the percentage of Realised Gains / Losses (the lower indicator) to understand whether market participants: 1) are taking advantage of rallies to Breakeven, or 2) continue to hold with an expectation of further gains. I think it is clear that the 2nd scenario is what is actually happening and the probability of going to overall breakeven (the upper costs basis line) in the market has been a slow grind but a realistic target. Some traders simply want to buy at the lows - but from my perspective there are some great opportunities to trade other markets, that I am happy to sit back and wait until I see evidence of the psychology I explained in this post and related posts to be tested and then as a trader - exploited!
BITFINEX:LTCUSDLong
by Adam-Cox
Is a perfect storm brewing?I am looking at potential short positions on OIL related stocks as indicated by this example. Observation Phillips 66 has gone into a bearish mode with swing traders (around 30% of the market) losing on net longs positions with the wider market on average now being at break even. Break-even price levels can mean either 1) important support areas, 2) break points where on-stop shorts can be positioned (without the risk of being affected by stop loss hunts) Discussion Several core issues to measure here: 1) OPEC - growing pump volumes' 2) USA dollar - and its purchasing power 3) US economy - is the US fiscal response still in-tact? 4) Covid-19 and economic recovery - new strains and 2nd / 3rd waves in countries - South Africa, USA etc. We could have a situation where OPEC volumes being increased intersect with economic wobbles and new Covid impacts. So a perfect storm may be brewing! Extra Two oscillators are presented: 1 - Realised PnL for this stock - If I saw large losses being realised and a new cost basis being set by the wider market , I would be more inclined to think that the current set-up is a pivot point low and potential buying opportunity - currently this is NOT the case! 2 - Exempt short volume - measures the 'Urgency' of shorts- or hedgers. These points come in just before or at Pivot Point highs or after Pivot Point lows for cover. So I will be keeping an eye on this. Good trading :)
NYSE:PSX
by Adam-Cox