Cotreports — Trading Ideas on TradingView

AUDNZD Analysis - Bullish - Trade 07 AUDNZD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality AUD: Strong **buy** signal for the first week of December, suggesting upward momentum. NZD: Range-bound signal, indicating weaker performance compared to AUD. Seasonality Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 2. COT Report AUD: COT RSI : Decreasing from the top but still indicates bullish positioning. COT Index : Near the top, signaling strong institutional interest in AUD. Net Non-Commercial : Increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. NZD : COT RSI : At the bottom (0%), but overall positioning is weak. COT Index : Bottomed at 0%, reflecting limited institutional support for NZD. Net Non-Commercial : Decreasing, suggesting bearish momentum. COT Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) : AUD : Increasing, pointing to improving economic conditions. NZD : Increasing, but weaker overall impact compared to AUD. Endogenous Factors: AUD : Mix to decreasing, but seasonal strength supports AUD’s buy case. NZD : Increasing, but weaker compared to AUD. Exogenous Factors : AUDNZD exogenous signal supports a buy AUD, sell NZD bias. Fundamental Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence spotted on the 4H timeframe, signaling potential upward movement. Parallel Channel : Price is at the bottom of a bearish parallel channel, indicating possible reversal to the upside. Daily Support : Currently holding above a strong daily support zone, reinforcing the bullish setup. Technical Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- Final Bias: Buy AUDNZD All factors—seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, and technicals—align in favor of a BUY setup for AUDNZD. This pair shows potential for upward movement, supported by strong economic and technical signals.

Is the Euro Looking for Support?It seems like the euro is on the hunt for some support. Could the bulls finally take charge and pull the euro out of its steep decline? The indicators are sending mixed signals. And when I say "indicators," I’m not talking about stochastics, moving averages, or that kind of stuff. I’m referring to the data from COT reports (show sentiment leaning towards a stronger dollar), analysis of options trades (not signaling a reversal), and retail sentiment (which is firmly bearish). And sure, we’ll throw in some chart analysis, but not just for the euro—I'm also looking at the 10-year Treasury yield chart. What’s particularly important is how the quotes react at the 4.28% and 4.38% levels (marked as 1 and 2 on the chart). So, what do I mean by "how they react"? If the quotes hit resistance at these levels and turn south, the Dollar will likely correct, giving the euro bulls a breather. I highlighted the levels in the euro, the correction to which is very justified for finding liquidity. But if the quotes 10Y Bonds start to "chop" through those levels, then the Dollar is headed higher and beyond.

Volumes. Why every trader should be able to work with them.The third “stream” of incoming real data, which simply cannot be ignored when analyzing a chart, is volumes. I’ll try to explain why the third stream, what are the first two. On any chart of a trading instrument there are two scales, price and time. These are two real and independent incoming data streams. All Technical Analysis studies them inside and out. Price behavior is studied in the form of graphic figures, support/resistance levels, candlestick analysis and patterns, trend lines and channels, the movement of waves of price movement, using indicators, Renko charts, tic-tac-toe, etc. and so on. The time scale is divided into seasonality, quarters, trading sessions, sessions for hours before and after lunch, and simply into hours and minutes of possible manipulations (in ICT smartmoney, for example, Kill zones, macros). I would call volumes the third stream of data, the “3rd scale on the chart.” This is an independent and independent flow of data about the turnover of money, or more precisely, contracts traded at a certain time and at a certain price. All indicators and volume analysis tools do not depend on price and time in the direct sense. They work with their data coming from the exchange. A clear example... Any oscillator, for example, depends on the price, is calculated using a formula based on the price value, and produces a certain “averaged” option.” The cumulative delta curve is constructed based on data on the number of contracts traded from the exchange, and does not depend in any way on the price value; it has its own data. Volumes also include not only analysis using various indicators and clusters. And the ability to work with COT reports, open interest and other data from CME. This is also data on contracts traded by different groups of participants. And understanding how options work, all markets are closely related and influence each other. There are many complex risk hedging designs. Nobody wants to lose money. And I think ignoring this data flow and not being able to work with it is, at the very least, stupid. And simply, isn’t it interesting to look inside a candle or figure to see what’s really going on there? The price is in a “triangle or sideways”, accumulation/distribution is taking place, but is anything really happening there? Are you waiting for a rollback to imbalance (FVG), but is there this imbalance there? Are you waiting for a reaction to a level, “liquidity withdrawal”, order block, but is there something or someone inside the reaction or not? By the way, I don’t know the fourth data stream, if you know, please let me know. I'll be happy to study it. I hope the information will be useful. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share with friends, leave comments. All you have to do is click a button, and I love seeing feedback. Thank you.

Fundamental & Technical Analysis on NDQ100 Fundamental : COT report shows a rise in shorts positions continuing the past 3-4 week while simultaneously showing a decrease in longs positions held the past 4 weeks. Net positions also show a large change from 7.8K down to 535, a -88.71% change. Open interest is split between both longs and shorts with neither showing an advantage, over all OI has decreased a little COT Report : cot-reports.com Technical : From a technical prospective price action is underneath the EMAs, were getting the 3 EMA cross down the 10 EMA while Momentum is negative, and the Stochastic is underneath 50% TP/SL : Target around recent lows with a stop above highs

COT reports + SMT. How to determine the long-term trend (BIAS).A pattern in the COT reporting curve to determine long-term trend or bias (BIAS). With a scope from several weeks to months. Of course, reports arrive with a delay, but on a long-term scale this is not a big problem. Many people use divergences, or SMT in the teachings of Smartmoney Michael Huddleston (ICT), when analyzing charts. Why not use COT and divergence reports together as a useful chart analysis tool. Everyone probably noticed that the positions of Commercial traders in the curve constructed from reports coincides with the price movement (there is some direct correlation, and a large one). After a long observation and playing with the scale, obvious discrepancies in correlations and emerging divergences (SMT) caught my eye. And very often at the peaks of movements, followed by a reversal. Data reports are of course released once a week. Therefore, tracking such SMTs can be used as an additional factor to determine bias in the analysis of higher time frames. And already having a bias for the next few weeks, or even a couple of months. You can look for signals in trades with confirmation on lower timeframes. I like these divergences, they are built on an indicator that is completely independent of price. unlike any RSI, Stochastics, etc. The curve is constructed solely based on trading volumes on the CME exchange, and does not depend in any way on the price, therefore it does not follow the price further to infinity. This is a direct correlation of two different data streams, and their divergence (divergence). I think I’ll make a separate short article about “data streams”, what I mean by this. And finally, of course, the tool is not the holy grail. But with a proper and adequate approach in skillful hands, it is a very good tool that can be kept in mind during a complex analysis of charts. At a minimum, if divergence occurs, you can be wary and reconsider your plans. I hope the information will be useful. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share with friends, leave comments. All you have to do is click a button, and I love seeing feedback. Thank you.