Downloading...
Download

CPI

US500 - Inflation data aheadHi Traders, last week the US500 did a correction as expected. Right now price is at a interesting level for Bulls (arround July High) Next week we have to put our eyes on the US inflation data. On wednesday we have the Core CPI. The forcase is +0,2% What is the core CPI? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. On Thursday we also need to watch for PPI - which is likely a good indicator for future CPI values. What is the PPI? The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Wish you all good trades! Team tegasFX
CAPITALCOM:US500
by tegasFX
RBA expected to pause, US nonfarm payrolls rises slightlyThe Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise. The central bank has paused for two straight meetings and the odds of a third pause stand at 86%, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. The most important factor in RBA rate policy is of course inflation. In July, CPI fell to 4.9% y/y, down from 5.4% y/y and better than the consensus of 5.2% y/y. Inflation is moving in the right direction and has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. A third straight pause from the RBA will likely raise expectations that the current rate-tightening cycle is done but I don't believe we're at that point just yet. This is Governor Lowe's final meeting and he is expected to keep the door open to further rate hikes. Incoming Governor Bullock stated last week that the RBA "may still need to raise rates again", adding that the Bank will make its rate decisions based on the data. The RBA isn't anywhere near declaring victory over inflation and has projected that inflation will not fall back within the 2%-3% inflation target until late 2025. The week wrapped up with the US employment report for August. The Fed will be pleased as nonfarm payrolls remained below 200,00 for a third straight month, rising from a revised 157,000 to 187,000. Wage growth fell to 0.2% in August, down from 0.4% in July and below the consensus of 0.3%. The data cements a rate hold at the September 20th meeting, barring a huge surprise from the CPI report a week prior to the rate meeting. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6458. Above, there is resistance at 0.6516 There is support at 0.6395 and 0.6337
by OANDA
Hyperinflation China (CNY) + Japan (JPY) First to Go! Chinese real-estate has collapsed China refuses to update new unemployment metrics (like they've ever told the truth) China BOC keeps printing to backstop this (parabolic m3/m2) China forcing peoples money trapped in this death spiral Japan Real estate is also dead Japan stocks / Gasoline is going parabolic due to the start of hyperinflation not a booming economy Japan's BOJ also can't stop printing! what could go wrong? I've made post about this months ago with warning signs about Japan's stock market going parabolic without anything going on. This is text book Weimar Germany 1923, why the Chinese stocks going down though? simple the capital is trying everything to exit into US markets. The CCP has printed so much money and you know what people did with it? they sold it for US Dollars and used it overseas because nobody is buying the bs that China is a booming / powerful economy its completely collapsing you love to see it!. Japan? their currency is done. Both these countries have debt to GDP past the point of no return. Both these countries have PPI / CPI going parabolic past the point of no return. People have started to panic in China and it will follow in Japan followed by a complete meltdown, but the trick here is there's a chance this will not take out the US markets ironically. All of this capital will flow back into the USA. The final take away from this is the US markets see's strength not from "Real growth" but from countries where people have no option to diverse and enter the US market. "Forecasters recession this recession that" it never equals what the markets actually do.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
3
EUR/USD eyes German, Eurozone CPI reportThe euro's mini-rally has run out of steam. EUR/USD climbed 0.80% over the past two days but is trading in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0867, down 0.11%. The markets will be keeping a close eye on European inflation releases today and Thursday. Germany releases the July CPI report later today, with a consensus estimate of 6.0%, compared to 6.2% in July. The once-formidable German juggernaut is in trouble and inflation remains high. The eurozone releases July CPI on Thursday, which is expected to drop from 5.3% to 5.1%. The ECB meets next on September 14th and ECB President Lagarde may have signalled that another rate hike is coming. Lagarde attended the Jackson Hole summit last week and said that interest rates would remain high "as long as necessary" in order to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. Lagarde's hawkish remarks were more hawkish than her comments at the July meeting, where she said that ECB policy makers had an "open mind" about the September decision. There's no arguing that eurozone inflation remains too high, but the argument against raising rates even higher is that the eurozone economy is not in great shape, and nine straight rate hikes from the ECB have cooled economic growth. Further hikes could tip the economy into a recession, which means that the ECB has its work cut out in deciding whether to raise rates again or take a pause in September. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at next week's meeting, and disappointing data on Tuesday may have cemented a pause. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 106.1 in July, compared to 116.0 in August, marking a two-year low. As well, JOLTS Jobs Openings slowed to 8.82 million in July, down from 9.16 million in June and well off the estimate of 9.46 million. This was the sixth decline in the past seven months, a sign that the resilient US labour market is showing cracks. EUR/USD is putting strong pressure on resistance at 1.0896. The next resistance line is 1.0996 1.0831 and 1.0731 are providing support
by OANDA
1
Nasdaq is ready to drop or surprise us!Next CPI number will be important for SKILLING:NASDAQ , which has been rising like there will be no tomorrow. If we see a hot CPI number, we may see a strong drop towards 14500 area. If core cpi number shows a sign that the sticky part of the inflation is also cooling down, we may see some initial the first steps of the move towards ATH. Let's see if the market will respect the up trend or finally break it down. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
SKILLING:US100
by WhaleGambit
$CNIRYY - Deflationary CPI- While ECONOMICS:USIRYY numbers remain inflationary, having the latest increase to 3.2% on August 10th, on the other side of the World from the second Global Superpower, ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came Deflationary at negative 0.3% on 9'th of August, just a day prior to numbers of ECONOMICS:USIRYY . Note that The Head of Federal Reserve, our pal Jerome Powell, stated that Feds do not see Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY coming down to their norm target of 2% CPI by 2025. Jerome still believes on a 'Soft Landing'.. How about another Joke, Powell !?
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
DXY Analysis. CPI Day! No trade today!Hello Everyone. I want share my idea after we will get some news from CPI. In my last analysis of DXY my price prediction still short (i will link that idea in this post) My price prediction is still Short. on high timeframe from weekly trendline we have some pretty bearish movements. I think until cpi numbers it will touch daily trendline then it will retest weekly trendline, if there will be not new sellers the price will brake easy that trendline. TODAY I WILL NOT OPEN ANY TRADE UNTIL CHART WILL BE NOT CLEAR! Good luck Everyone.
TVC:DXYShort
by elmakacho
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Traders Anticipating US Inflation DataHi Traders! Ahead of the US CPI data in a couple of hours, USDJPY is trading with momentum, and we could finally see the 145.073 resistance level broken if the inflation outlook looks positive for the US. Looking at the 1W chart, the market looks bullish; we are above the 20 EMA; last week's high was broken; and even with the weaker than expected US jobs report announced last week, the US dollar is still showing strength. If the inflation data is stronger than expected, there is a strong possibility that the market breaks the 145.073 resistance level. Above this level is the psychological 150 level, which is the next long-term target that the market will look to test if the bullish momentum continues. Above 150 is our Apex level at 151.946, which is our record high. Depending on the outlook in the US, we may see this level at some point this year. Though USDJPY looks bullish, the market is currently in a range zone, and the resistance at 145.073 must break to confirm the bullish view. On the other side, below is the 137.915 level, which has been our strong support level over the past few months. If the inflation outlook looks weak and the bullish US dollar's bullish outlook becomes bearish, this level will be the likely long-term target level for USDJPY. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
USD Index road map with US CPI to come.Today's focus: USD Index Pattern – Ascending Triangle Support – 95.68 Resistance – 96.32 Today, we look at the USD index as price continues to trade rangebound after fighting back from a two-day decline. Could today’s CPI data break the deadlock and give the market some direction? Traders will be watching to see what today’s data could do for rate rise expectations. Could a move above expectations lift price above resistance and get the current trend back on track? Or could a miss to the downside confirm an LH and break the trend, setting off fresh selling? If we see the data come in flat, this could maintain the current price range that we are seeing at the moment. Keep an eye on today’s data when it’s released at 8:30 am EST, as it could produce some volatility if the figure comes out outside of market expectations. Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Eightcap
Btc At Pivotal Level ,Dub The Area The Most Important Trend LineBtc At Pivotal Level, Dub The Area The Most Important Trend Line With CPi ahead and projected to Increase, will Bitcoin keep its correlation with the NASDAQ and continue to act as a high-yield beta stock? Eventually, Bitcoin could diverge from tech stocks and compete with gold or possibly even the dollar in the event of a major flight to safety. First, we have a very probable move lower bar we don't decouple from the tech correlation as the market potentially prices in a Higher for longer from the fed Cpi over 3.4 will be bad for all risk assets and push the dollar high which should be bad for high-yield things like btc Technically, we're seeing divergences In multiple oscillating indicators plus approach long-term trend line Let's see what happens, Up this post if you utilize this Idea Happy Trading!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by PipsOverPast
3
Generally Up Until TuesdayWith Intermediate wave 1 likely in the books, I have projected the top for Intermediate wave 2. It won't be as high as originally thought. Minor wave A could end tomorrow or Friday and wave B could end Friday or Monday. The end looks like maybe Tuesday based on historical data. Intermediate wave 1 ended about an hour late today but the market roared after the bottom per analysis: The move up this afternoon almost ran the whole length of Minor wave A's expectation so a cool off today may continue to provide room for gains tomorrow. The inflation read still appears to be a catalyst for gains, but maybe 20-30 points early on Thursday is not a significant jump or confidence in the reported numbers which the pundits may add the context of fuel prices having gone up after the end of July. This realization should led the market down into Minor wave B temporarily and then some sort of short rally should occur Monday/Tuesday. The next drop should be another 150-300 pointer. The projected bottom for this first Primary wave 1 down right now is early October, however, based on the ending point of Intermediate wave 1, it is possible the bottom is October remains above 4050 AND the final market low toward the end of 2024 could remain above 3100 based on the analysis here:
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Gold Price At A Critical Support Level – After Steady DeclineGold Price – Technical Outlook Daily Chart After experiencing careful declines since mid-July, gold price is currently positioned directly on the ascending trendline originating from February, as depicted in the chart below. If this trendline is breached, it could pave the way for a more pronounced bearish technical outlook. This scenario would potentially reveal the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1903, which notably coincides with the lows observed in June. 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour chart provided below offers a clearer view of the recent short-term downtrend. A descending trendline is serving as a consistent support, facilitating a gradual decline in price. Notably, there is a positive divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which suggests that the downward momentum is diminishing. This observation coincides with XAU/USD testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level within this specific timeframe. However, for a potential return to a short-term bullish technical outlook, it would be essential to surpass the 1932 resistance level. Alternatively, if bearish momentum continues downward, the next area of support to watch out for would be 1898 and 1867
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by imxoxo
What Disinflation - Beef Price Went Up 64 percent in 5 YearsCME: Live Cattle ( CME:LE1! ), Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! ) Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US inflation on food items was 5.7% in June, exactly half of its peak of 11.4% in August 2022. Food inflation is at its lowest level since November 2021. Under the sub-category “Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs” from Food-at-home, the BLS data shows a negative 0.2%, meaning that meat prices declined in the past year. The official data contradicts my own experience. Anyone who has been shopping knows that the grocery bill gets bigger every month. Last weekend, I surveyed the Beef section at a local Walmart and found the following: • Beef cuts with the USDA Choice label price between $12-$18 per pound. • A primal loin, for example, costs $16.99/lb. Next to Beef is the Pork section. • A full slack of spareribs prices at $1.89/lb. • This is back to the pre-Covid price level. Why is beef so pricy? Will consumers get some relief as food inflation goes down? In this report, I attempt to find out what drives the beef/cattle price up. The Cash Cattle Market According to the National Daily Cattle & Beef Summary published by the USDA, Choice Beef averaged $301.79/cwt (per 100 pounds) nationwide on August 4th. Primal loin cutouts averaged $4.11/lb. This is so much lower than the retail price. But why? The USDA reports transactions occurred at meatpackers, where cattle farmers sell their beef cows. The report shows the value chain throughout the packing process: • Live Cattle: Steer (male cow), 187.55/cwt; Heifer (young female), $187.26/cwt; • Beef Carcass: $284.86 (Choice); • Primal Flank: $214.84 (Choice); • Primal Rib: $457.54 (Choice); • It also lists prices for Chuck, Round, Brisket, Short Plate, Trimmings, etc. From the packing plant, beef goes through cold storage, wholesale, and retail distribution before consumers pick up their favorite meat at the grocery store. During the inflationary period, labor and energy become more costly, driving up the cost of each stage of processing and distribution. Higher interest rates also raise the cost of business overhead. These together widen the price spread between live cattle and retail beef cutout significantly. In the beef cattle value chain, it takes farmers two years to raise the cows, while processing and distribution take maybe two weeks to complete. However, farmers receive only about 20% of the final sales price. The Cattle Cycle and A Shrinking Herd Cattle cycle is the process in which the size of the national cattle herd changes over time, from low point to low point. The cattle cycle averages 8–12 years and is influenced by the cattle prices, input costs that drive producer profitability, the gestation period, the time needed for raising calves to market weight, and climate conditions. If cattle prices and producer profits are expected to rise, producers may expand their herds; if prices are expected to decline, producers will reduce their herds by culling older cows and keeping fewer heifers to replace older cows. Cow-calf producers’ response to price fluctuations may be delayed because of the lengthy gestation period for cattle relative to hogs and poultry. The total number of beef cattle in the United States is highly dependent on the stage in the cattle cycle. Last month, the USDA reported that the latest herd inventory for all cows and calves was 95.9 million, down 3% year-over-year. Beef cow inventory was 29.4 million, also down 3%. The decline in beef cow supply is the main driver for higher beef prices. Over the past 50 years, the US cattle herd has shrunk significantly. • Inventory for all cows and calves peaked at 132 million in 1975. We have lost over 36 million cows or 27% of all cattle supply. • Beef cattle inventory peaked at 45.7 million. We now have 2/3 of peak herd size. A counter argument is that, with technology advancements, we need fewer cows for the same amount of beef supply. The production time gets shorter, and the cows gets bigger. People now have healthier diets and take in less red meat. According to USDA data, per capita beef consumption was 63.3 pounds in 1960. It declined to 59.1 pounds in 2021, down 6.6%. But look at the huge population growth for people. The US had 203.2 million people according to the 1970 Census. US population grew to 331.4 million in the 2020 Census, up 63%. Beef demand clearly outpaced supply as US population grows. Beef Export and Import Interestingly, the US both exports and imports beef. In 2021, the US exported 3.43 billion pounds of beef while imported 3.35 billion pounds. Beef export was mainly higher-grade beef cutouts. And import was lower-grade beef for processing into ground beef. The US used to be a net import country for beef. In 2020, China signed a trade agreement with the US and opened its vast market for US beef import. This resulted in China buying four times as much beef the following year. More export reduces domestic beef supply. This is another factor driving up beef prices. In conclusion, the days of lower priced beef are long gone. Beef prices are expected to remain high, even though food inflation goes down. Cattle and Hog Spread Trade – A Revisit How could we make use of this analysis? On May 15th, I published an idea about a spread trade between CME Live Cattle Futures ( NASDAQ:LE ) and Lean Hog Futures ( NYSE:HE ). The 20-year chart shows that the price spread between live cattle (LE) and lean hog (HE) broadly stays in the range of $20-$60 per 100 pounds but could go up to as high as $100. On May 12th, October cattle contract (LEV3) was quoted $166.2 per 100 lbs., while October hog contract (HEV3) priced at $77.425. Thus, the price spread was $88.775. On August 4th, LEV3 settled at $183.10 while HEV3 was closed at $83.25. The spread has widened to nearly $100. The Impact of Proposition 12 In 2018, California passed an animal welfare law called Proposition 12. It requires that breeding pigs be confined to a pen with no less than 24 square feet of floor space, allowing them to fully turn around in their living area. Proposition 12 applies to not only hog farmers in California, but also any supplier selling hog and pork in the state of California. The hog industry fought hard but lost. The Supreme Court upheld the law in May, and it is finally taking effect in July. The animal welfare law significantly increases the cost of hog production nationwide. Prices of live hog, pork cutout, ham and bacon shall all go up. However, as we are now in summer, a low pork consumption season, cash market price has not yet caught up. In my opinion, the cost factor pushing pork prices up in the short run is greater than the supply-demand force that drives up beef prices in the long run. There may be room to short the cattle-hog spread, until pork prices stabilize in a new equilibrium. A Short Spread trade entails selling 1 CME Live Cattle Futures and buying 1 CME Lean Hog Futures. Both contracts are based on 40,000 pounds of meat and require $1,600 in initial margins. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:LE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
26