FCPO / Crude Palm Oil CPO 18 April 2025 Daily Chart Analysis
Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low with a long tail below.
In our previous report, we said the bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area.
The market traded above the prior day's high (16 April) but the follow-through buying was limited. The market then reversed to close near its low.
Currently, in the night session, the market gapped up and is an inside bull bar with a prominent tail above.
The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 16) and a lower low major trend reversal.
While the market traded higher today (April 17), the bulls couldn't create sustained follow-through buying.
They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a retest of the 20-day EMA or the April 10 high.
They hope tomorrow (Friday) will close as a strong bull bar so the weekly candlestick will have a long tail below and close above the middle of its range.
The bears want a retest of the January low.
They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low.
They see the current move forming a double top bear flag (April 15 and April 17).
They want a strong retest of the April 16 low, followed by a strong breakout below.
They want a big bear bar closing near its low tomorrow (Friday) so that the weekly candlestick will be a strong bear bar. If this is the case, the odds of the market trading at least a little lower the following week will increase.
Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%.
Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet.
Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market.
The market remains Always In Short.
The recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold.
However, the bulls attempted to create reversals in the last 2 days but both times had limited follow-through buying, with the market reversing to close lower. The bulls are not yet strong.
The move down since April 10 has a lot of overlapping candlestick. (see the 4 hr chart below). While the tight bear channel means persistent selling, the overlapping candlesticks indicate a weaker down phase than the first leg down (April 2 to April 9).
The market formed a tight trading range in the last 3-4 days (small yellow box). The market is in breakout mode.
Traders will wait for a breakout from either direction and trade in the direction of the breakout.
Until then, traders may continue to Buy Low and Sell High (between 4000 and 4080).
The U.S. market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.
For now, traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar breaking below the April 16 low.
Or will the market trade sideways followed by a retest and breakout above the 4080 level instead?
