BTC Triangle Squeezing Toward $100 K — Sellers Press🎯 TL;DR
A four-week contracting triangle is coiling price just under $105 K.
Measured move ⇒ $100 506
Both W.ARITAS Quantum RSI flash strong selling pressure while QSP shows a weak trend.
On-chain: miners dumped ≈30 000 BTC since late May, yet spot-ETF inflows have stayed positive eight days straight.
Base case: price breaks lower into $100 K-97 K, where I expect a sharp bounce.
🗺️ Chart at a Glance
Element Detail
Pattern Symmetrical / contracting triangle (late-Apr → present)
Immediate pivot $104 800 – reclaimed as resistance (red circle)
Target 1 $100 506 – triangle measured move
Demand block $96 900 – $95 000 – weekly support & June VWAP
Invalidation 6-h close > $106 000
🔧 Technical Internals
Momentum 🟣
Quantum RSI: −23 / −41 and falling → sellers dominate.
QSP: muted blue histogram sub-zero → trend itself is still weak, so expect whipsaws near support.
Structure 🔵
Three successive lower-highs (113 K → 110 K → 109 K) tighten the squeeze.
Price is riding the underside of the triangle, a common “kiss-of-death” before resolution.
🔍 Fundamental / Flow Backdrop
Miners on the offer – Wallet balances down ~30 000 BTC over 20 days (≈ $3.1 B)
Source: IntoTheBlock via CoinDesk, 19 Jun 2025
ETF demand refuses to quit – U.S. spot ETFs pulled $388.3 M on 18 Jun, marking 8 consecutive inflow days
Source: CoinTelegraph, Cryptonomist, 19 Jun 2025
Regulatory clarity incoming – U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan stablecoin bill on 17 Jun; House vote next
Source: Reuters, 17 Jun 2025
Net: structural sellers (miners, profit-takers) vs. structural buyers (ETFs).
Right now, technicals side with the sellers.
📈 Trade Map (3-8 Week Horizon)
106 000 – 104 800 Triangle top & failed breakout zone Bias flips bullish only on sustained reclaim
100 506 Measured-move target + psychological $100 K Primary TP / bounce watch
96 900 – 95 000 Weekly demand, June VWAP Secondary TP if 100 K gives way
110 000 + Pattern invalidation Opens road to 113 K-115 K ATH cluster
🛠️ Execution Idea (Not Financial Advice)
Trigger: 6-hour close < $103 500 confirms breakdown.
Entry Bias: Short retest of 104.8 K-105.5 K.
Targets:
TP1 – $100 500
TP2 – $97 000 (only if momentum stays bearish)
Stop / Invalidation: 6-hour close > $106 000 and Quantum RSI flips back to green.
