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TRX - The Outlier - Time For A Mega Short?Ah, Tronix. Yes, it's actually called "Tronix", not "Tron." The coin with the disappearing wallet. No joke, I made a wallet back in early 2019 for TRX and stored the private key. I like to do things the old fashioned way, so I wrote it down and double-checked it by logging in. The second time Iogged in, I got the notification, "this wallet doesn't exist." Since then, I've been pretty wary of this project. I could go into all sorts of conspiracy theories about Justin Sun, CZ, Binance, stablecoins......but I'll leave that to your imagination. This is a purely technical setup. TRX is one of the few coins that has maintained higher support levels during this bloodbath. What's up with that? As far as I understand, TRX is burned to help keep the Tron stablecoin USDD pegged to the dollar. USDT recently moved away from the Tron network. Anomalies like this don't usually last long in the crypto market. I'm speculating that this breaks down massively. There's already buzz that TRX will be the next LUNA, but before I say it's going to zero, let's just look at horizontal supports. If TRX cannot hold the 200 MA on the 3 day (teal), and if it cannot hold that orange uptrend, I think it can fall 50% pretty quickly, much like other alts during this period. On the bullish side, TRX will need to break and hold above the 200 day MA (teal in the below chart) The 200 week MA lingers just below, at the 4 cents level. Now, the question is - does TRX test the 50 week MA near 8 cents one more time before dumping? Let's find out. This is not meant as financial advice. This post is highly speculative, and is meant for entertainment :) -Victor Cobra
Short
by VictorCobra
4
TRX - The Outlier, Part 2This is just a quick follow-up post to my short idea on Tronix from May. Here is the original post. I ultimately got stopped out of the first trade and failed to catch the nearly 50% drop. Despite dropping below the uptrend, TRX rebounded much better than the rest of the crypto market, and remains one of the only coins still above its bull market support. It's been doing better than both Bitcoin and Ethereum for months. So, what's going on? Without going into too much detail, the price of TRX is being inflated due to burning mechanisms and its algorithmic stablecoin USDD. Does it deserve its current valuation? Is Justin Sun truly a genius who has engineered the perfect, stable asset? My bet is that this is not the case. I'm scaling into a short again - entries are marked at the green levels on the lefthand chart, which shows short-term price action. Short term targets are in red, while longer term short targets are shown on the righthand chart (3 day). It might take some time for this to break down, during which TRX can again get into the mid-7 cents zone. This is especially the case if markets are to rally for another 2-3 months. This is why my stop is fairly tight here, and I'm just trying to catch a wave down. Let's see! Invalidation will be if TRX can break and hold above that triangle resistance on the 3 day chart. This is not meant as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
Short
by VictorCobra
1
what is going on in crypto market?!hello guys! today crypto market has gone down a lot! let's look through the details: Today's crypto market experienced a bearish trend, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling to $65,000 and Ethereum (ETH) declining to $3,428.45. Altcoins like Solana (SOL) and meme coins Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw significant drops, while XRP defied the trend, rising slightly. The global crypto market cap dropped 3.14% to $2.35 trillion, and market volume surged 104.01% to $94.07 billion, influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Key Prices: - Bitcoin (BTC): Down 1.39% to $65,374.98. - Ethereum (ETH) : Down 4.39% to $3,428.45. - Solana (SOL): Down 9.25% to $134.26. - XRP: Up 0.33% to $0.4893. Meme Coins: - Dogecoin (DOGE): Down 9.74% to $0.122. - Shiba Inu (SHIB) : Down 12.12% to $0.00001802. Top Losers: - zkSync (ZK): Down 30.23%. - Fantom (FTM): Down 20.69%. - Ethena (ENA): Down 18.89%. - Starknet (STRK): Down 17.82%. ____________________________________ let's come back to Total2: description: The **Total2 Index** is a cryptocurrency market index that tracks the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin. This index provides a way to measure the overall performance and trends of the altcoin market, without the influence of Bitcoin's market movements, which often dominate the crypto space. By excluding Bitcoin, the Total2 Index gives a clearer picture of how the altcoin sector is performing, helping investors and analysts understand market dynamics and the relative performance of various other cryptocurrencies. This index can be particularly useful for those focused on altcoins or looking to diversify their portfolios beyond Bitcoin. technical analysis: the previous leg Was corrected until 33%, so it seems the next legs become more bullish, and this index will touch the $12.9T area as well, but it's fine if it becomes a little bit bearish until touches more than 480b area, we can consider on an upward movement! ___________________________ ✓✓✓ Always do your research. ❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. ❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by melikatrader94
1
Ripple (XRP) -> Triangle ContinuationMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Ripple. Since the beginning of 2018 Ripple Coin has been trading inside and forming a quite bullish triangle pattern which is most more often than not a simple continuation pattern. I am now simply waiting for a breakout which is roughly at the $1.4 level and then we could see another crazy pump of more than 1000% towards the upside. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by basictradingtv
39
Bitcoin -> Consolidation Breakout!?Hello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Bitcoin 💪 A couple of months ago Bitcoin perfectly retested and already rejected the previous cycle high from 2018 and also the 0.786 fibonacci level so the recent rally was quite expected. Furthermore you can also see that weekly market structure is bullish with Bitcoin creating higher highs and higher lows so there is no reason why Bitcoin should actually reject the previous resistance zone once again towards the downside. With Bitcoin once again retesting previous daily support we could see another rejection towards the upside but this is definitely a coinflip trade so I am now waiting for a clear range breakout and then I will look for a buy trading setup. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
27
TOTAL CarnageA lot of investors are probably asking, WHY IS THIS HAPPENING? We're seeing unbelievable amounts of deleveraging, not just in the cryptocurrency market. Over the last several months, I have posted consistently on why I believed there was significant risk for something like this to occur. Within the crypto market itself, we're now seeing consistent bad news. Trust is evaporating, as participants now feel that nowhere is safe. The profiteers and the moguls are now being exposed, and the system is failing. Microstrategy's share price is in freefall - and this is something I suggested could happen months ago, before the broader market was considering this as a significant risk. Here is my post about MSTR and Bitcoin from April 30th: Bitcoin has declined over 20% since that post, while MSTR has collapsed by a staggering 50%+. This tells me that it is very possible investors see Bitcoin has worth far below its market value, and see it as a big risk to Michael Saylor. That means Bitcoin can fall quickly to sub-$20k levels. Bitcoin has also now broken its long term trend against SPX convincingly. If Bitcoin is to head back to those lower levels against SPX, and if SPX drops by another 30-50%, Bitcoin could collapse to lows not seen since the 2018-2020 bear market, meaning Saylor would indeed be liquidated at $3.5k. Already, many altcoins are deflating at an alarming rate back to some of those levels. And why would SPX drop by another 30-40%? It's still a ways above a pretty significant long term trendline. If markets can't get it together soon, that remains a glaring target. Here is where I wrote about the asset bubble and the (actual) death of Bitcoin: Recently, I wrote about a potential altcoin collapse after noticing the long term trendline break for Litecoin: I even wrote about an altcoin capitulation back in March, right before the last major market bounce: Now as for that bounce to $46-48k, here is the post where I speculated why it could happen. Pressing play on this one is fun. Here are a few of my bearish altcoin posts from the last few months, including where I showed weakness in the Terra (LUNA) chart, while it was still above $90. Pressing play on these charts is also fun, but in a bit of a sickening way. Terra (LUNA) Cosmos (ATOM) Solana Polkadot Looking at the above chart for this analysis, you can see that the TOTAL cryptocurrency market cap is now back inside of a broadening wedge pattern, which momentarily broke out to the upside this year. This is after already breaking a couple of long term uptrends. Falling back inside the wedge and failing to close this week above leaves room for TOTAL to continue its free-fall towards 2018 valuations. This means that Bitcoin can return to $20k or lower within the next week or two, while ETH can venture back to near $1000. There is not much technical support at this point for the market, should the current level fail to hold. This is what a free-fall truly looks like. If this occurs, it would be continued disaster for the crypto space, as exchanges would likely not have enough stablecoin liquidity to support supply from sellers. Although it may seem impossible, the situation would actually escalate. I can't even imagine the level of nonsense that would occur in this instance, but people's funds would not be particularly safe, and it might even be impossible to sell. If exchanges do collapse, then it would be revealed that Tether was simply the largest counterfeiting scheme in human history, and quite successful. People forget that even once these schemes are revealed, the leaders of the schemes have already won and pocketed billions of dollars in real cash. Is there any hope? Sure, TOTAL could bounce back over that trendline before the end of the week. That would be a decent bottom signal. But then, in looking at charts for many "promising" projects over the years you'll see that most have failed to maintain significant value. People are holding out for another cycle, thinking that this is just "Crypto winter," and that the hype will occur again. I believe that crypto reached a critical mass - essentially the minimum required value for it to have a permanent negative impact on the broader sentiment towards the market. That value was over $2 Trillion. If this market were completely erased from existence, almost nothing would change about the world, except we'd need to find something more meaningful to believe in. All that energy that has been spent in crypto communities (much if it actually positive energy) can easily go elsewhere. This is not meant as financial advice. This represents my opinion, and so is meant for speculation and entertainment only. Over the summer, I plan to finally transition to YouTube for video content. So that’s something to look forward to! -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by VictorCobra
48
The Market Requires A 100%+ Move - Will Buyers Save Bitcoin? Here on the left, I've shown the BLX chart (Bitcoin index with the longest price history, plus its log curve) and the broken long term uptrend on the Litecoin chart on the right. Why Litecoin? Well, the 2017 bull market was characterized by astronomical gains for Bitcoin alternatives. At that time, it was about which functioned as the best currency. Litecoin and others were seen as faster, cheaper alternatives to Bitcoin. Litecoin supporters mark a bit of a cross-over between those who believe proof-of-work offers the most secure, stable network and those who prioritize cheaper transactions. Although Litecoin and other currency competitors did well in 2017, they underperformed in 2021, outclassed by coins associated with DeFi, memes, NFT's, the metaverse, and staking. This past bull run was characterized by which had the best "value" proposition and/or the best memes. Needless to say, much of this has already gone up in smoke. The issue is, the "currency" coins have not held value either, retreating all the way back to levels from the 2018-2019 bear market, while Bitcoin itself barely maintains its price above the 2017 all-time-high, between $19800 and $20100. Most people did not think this was possible a few months ago. Many were still convinced that Bitcoin would hold above $28800 and maintain a bullish trend. Litecoin has broken its long term uptrend, and arguably needs to go up a whopping 4x in value quickly in order to regain the trend. Yet, a currency does not necessarily need to appreciate in value over time. We're now in the utility phase - cryptocurrencies need to prove they have some sort of necessary use-case outside of value appreciation. Speaking of long term value - we're now at a moment where if the bottom is NOT in , there's very little historical Bitcoin trend support until nearly $9k, where I've drawn my log curve. And I've drawn it generously - I've noticed that before this crash many were drawing their curve so it cut out the COVID crash, seeing it as an anomaly. But if that was an anomaly, what is today's price action? For many participants in the crypto market, the bottom MUST be in, or at least we must be very close to it. Bitcoin likely could not experience anything greater than another 50% decline from the most recent low ($17600) before total implosion, at least according to the log curve. Some would argue that the market has already imploded, but it seems merely that the over-leveraged players are getting consumed by those with deeper pockets. Just because the smaller, riskier lenders have fallen, does not mean the market is immune to continued systemic risk. The bigger fish need to attract more buyers ASAP, and the bounce needs to be huge - I'm talking a 100% increase at minimum. So then, the question becomes: What is the probability that Bitcoin will double from current prices and get back above the $40k level in coming weeks? I believe the market needs to see something like this, in order to prove it has any legitimacy as an "asset class." Otherwise, I think this was the final bubble for Bitcoin and crypto. I mean that seriously. Either of these scenarios would work, to inject confidence back in the market, though of course the blue is more severe. As I've said in my recent posts, any kind of bounce would be perfectly reasonable from these levels - buyers, you're welcome to that $20k Bitcoin at any point....a lot of people are waiting for you *evil smirk, impersonating big exchanges*. My point is that the bounce needs some SERIOUS oooomph behind it. Rising slowly to $33-34k over the course of several weeks just wouldn't do the trick, and it would provide the opportunity for longer term moving averages to solidify themselves as resistance, and could even allow the 200 week MA to flatline and roll over to the downside. TL/DR: Bitcoin needs to show buyers have strength to take it back to $40k+ quickly, even if it's just an initial impulse, to inject some confidence and liquidity back in the market. Now, for the warning signs, and what limits the probability of a 100%+ up move. BROKEN TRENDS I'll begin by posting a chart of a seemingly random altcoin - TRX. I think this one is significant because of Justin Sun's relationship to Binance, his own algorithmic stablecoin (USDD), and its apparent refusal to break down from its distribution range. Of the coins I've followed, its the only one that has not dropped substantially, although it finally broke its own uptrend. This shows there is still significant downside risk in pockets of the market. Something I've been watching for roughly a year now is the ratio of Bitcoin against the S&P 500 index (SPX). It has now experienced an extended decline, interrupting a decade of outperformance. Based on the above chart, Bitcoin needs to triple soon (at minimum) to regain the trendline and show strength against traditional assets. My theory (as it stands) was that Bitcoin only outperformed because the market expected it to become mainstream one day, and be touted by billionaires and celebrities. Now that it has achieved fame, there is not much to speculate on anymore. Bitcoin also needs to move up substantially against Gold, in order to continue capturing the "store of value" market share. Currently, it's below the 2017 all-time high, and resting on the highs from mid-2019. Gold is dropping substantially at the moment, so this provides an opportunity for Bitcoin to show some relative strength. But does it have enough fuel to get back above 18-20x and the long term trendline? If Bitcoin's value proposition TRULY lay in its scarcity, then why did the market find the need to create thousands of other coins? Humans are greedy and expansionist in nature. Sure, having a limited supply of something and conserving it can teach humans to save and to prepare for the future. But in the end, as I've said numerous times, cryptocurrencies are not a resource. Bitcoin *could* be a commodity, but again, the market does not see it as such, which can be viewed in the simple Bitcoin Dominance metric, and implied by its decline during a period of high inflation. I find that the Bitcoin Maximalist ethos is really about preparing for disaster. But to me, the most important things one can do to prepare for disaster are: CONNECT WITH YOUR LOCAL COMMUNITIES IN PERSON, develop a valuable skill or trade, and manage your risk. Interpersonal trust is extremely important. This is how movements and change occur, not by building a hypothetical simulation of trust through algorithms on the Internet. In addition, BACK TO LITECOIN - this thing has now dropped all the way back to its accumulation range from the previous bear market, showing that the last halving did nothing to increase the long term price floor for the asset. Will the same happen to Bitcoin? Litecoin appears to be in danger of heading back to somewhere below $10, should it not QUADRUPLE in the coming weeks. What does this all mean to the buyer? This means it's time to position oneself relative to risk tolerance. If you feel there is even a slight probability crypto will be saved by the big buyers, then now seems a decent time to allocate whatever percentage of your liquid capital to this crazy market and just hope for the best. For me at the moment, that's a little under 5%. For some, 5% might be a lot, for others, not so much. The way I see it - if I'm going to increase my exposure back to something like 10%, that's risking 10% for the potential to double my entire capital, since many altcoin projects could rebound 10x from here. That's my absurd logic, and is clearly only gambling. So, in my trading, I'm still considering putting a little bit back into the market near current levels. Yet, something holds me back - I think it's that my belief in the space has waned over the last couple years and I don't see much meaning in buying anything for the long term at this point. I'd rather focus my resources elsewhere. Nevertheless, I continue to post on here, cataloguing my ever-evolving thoughts on the market, and the fascinating history of humankind. This article represents the opinion of the author, and is not meant as financial advice. It is meant for speculation and entertainment only. Please consult with a professional financial advisor before making significant financial decisions. -Victor Cobra
BNC:BLXShort
by VictorCobra
16
Preparing for A "Best-Case" Scenario As I've been talking about over the last several weeks, the market SEEMS overdue for some sort of relief rally. Although I believe crypto has begun a longer term downtrend and likely will not see all-time highs in the foreseeable future, it is not unreasonable to expect some hope to be injected into the market before further sustained downside. Of course, the market can also continue its death-spiral, but I'm seeing what usually constitute bottoming signals: 1) Overwhelming negative sentiment 2) Retail traders becoming interested in shorting 3) Extremely negative articles in the news 4) Low Bitcoin exchange balance - this one may not mean much since supply doesn't need to affect traded price, but historically the balance goes UP along with major distribution, not down. 5) Indicators. The MACD, Ultimate Oscillator, and Stoch all leave room for several weeks of upside, even if it's a slow grind. Unfortunately, many of these "bottoming" signals already presented themselves at the three previous "floors," at $32k, $28k, and now $17.6k. Most traders trying to time a bottom still expect the crypto market to reach a new all-time high eventually. I do not operate under this assumption anymore. I think most of those people will get rekt and throw good money after bad. This would be the phase where the larger exchanges assume even more risk to keep the market afloat, and the next leg down begins when those larger firms capitulate as well. I think the biggest crypto bulls (C.Z., Michael Saylor, etc.) will be forced to admit defeat before bottom is reached. This is just my brazen opinion. What's Different This Time?? The only thing that *could* be different this time is that declining oil prices may alleviate liquidity constraints across markets. We may even get a rapid deflationary period, kind of in a whipsaw reaction to easing supply bottlenecks and fuel price relief. Michael Burry mentioned something about this recently. Deflation could lead to momentary relief in markets, as people buy back some riskier assets. However, it may also be accompanied by declining profits for companies, and eventually severe layoffs. Optimistically, this could improve the outlook for small businesses and community organizations, but cause mayhem for large corporations. All of this is speculation, of course, since there are so many interacting variables with unpredictable behavior and outcomes. Why Would The Market Go Up, if Everything Sucks? I myself have been incredibly negative about crypto since the beginning of 2022, well before most of the carnage hit the market, so I was able to reduce my risk and get out in time. Here is the post that marked my transition from long term bullish to longer term bearish, in the very beginning of 2022. I received criticism from more experienced investors for being too flighty. But now is it time for me to become more positive? Am I still being too flighty? To be honest, I still don't see anything of substance emerging from the crypto market, but I do admit that the emotions of traders are likely to continue being manipulated, which could result in some surprisingly large upside moves. I think the most likely way traders will be manipulated is to the upside. Hence, I am looking for some opportunities at current levels to buy a little bit, to be sold towards the end of the year. I am so disconnected from any emotional attachment to crypto at this point that I can have a fairly balanced approach, and not care about wishing new all-time highs into existence. On the above chart, I've drawn a speculative trajectory to show a somewhat realistic outlook for the coming months, based on the broader market structure and sentiment. This is the best I think we can hope, if the market is to bounce. I think there is a slim possibility for a complete reversal here, but I noted the conditions necessary for that in my last analysis, linked here: People are now talking about the Pi cycle bottom indicator for Bitcoin, which just flashed. Sure, this can be a bottom. As I keep saying, buyers are welcome to that $20k Bitcoin at any time, although bulls really don't want to see it become heavy resistance. As it now stands, the 200 week MA is already becoming resistance for the very first time in Bitcoin's history. This is really bad news. But, it still holds on the TOTAL chart. What's particularly interesting about the above chart is that the TOTAL crypto market cap tested its 2017 all-time high perfectly. If it continues to hold, I think the market can build a bit of a base here and try to exit the downtrend closer to the end of 2022. My speculation is that this breakout fails and TOTAL cannot hold above its next major weekly Moving Average (100 MA, yellow), while traditional markets make a lower high peak after weeks of slowly grinding up. Then, once 2023 begins, markets enter a new phase of implosion. I think it's fairly likely we see some debt-related liquidations across major financial firms in the U.S., as the central bank will remain under stress due to over-reliance on the dollar. The crypto collapse in this case is a strong warning signal to major financial institutions. Without the ability to print much money, I think we enter the worst depression since the 1929. Something like this: How Can We Avoid The Collapse? Unless economic conditions sort themselves out miraculously, and unless humanity does some seriously aggressive problem-solving, I think it will be really hard to avoid a depression. Most importantly, the U.S. needs to motivate its workforce and develop projects people actively want to work on - such as improving transportation infrastructure and water management/conservation infrastructure. This could actively solve both inflation and labor issues while helping us move forward in a future that will likely be characterized by severe clean water shortages and changes in how we use fuel. Unfortunately, humans have been trained to be more reactive than proactive over the last century, which makes the aggressive problem-solving more likely to occur once we have reached peak disaster, rather than beforehand. Part of this is due to exploitation and wealth inequality. Since the wealthy elite hold the power and they also do not feel the effects of global economic turmoil until things are at their worst, they are unlikely to do anything preventative. This isn't always because they are bad people, but simply because their privilege makes them blissfully unaware, and less likely to take actions that they see as too "drastic." The good news is, major contractions are opportunities for growth, in the longer term. Think of it as a necessary growing pain for humanity. Now if this is the BEST-case scenario, what's the worst? Well, the market can actually just continue to the downside here and offer zero opportunity for people to get out at higher prices. This becomes more likely if traditional markets have not yet reached their short-term bottom, and if more systemic issues surface. Even if Bitcoin heads to a new low shortly, there is still the possibility for a relief rally in the coming months, although it's mostly guesswork. This is not meant as financial advice. This is meant for personal use, speculation, and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by VictorCobra
5
The Bitcoin Supercycle: Understanding the PhenomenonBitcoin's meteoric rise in value shows no signs of slowing down, with financial experts predicting it will hit $100,000 this year and others forecasting that it could eventually reach $1 million. But what is driving the surge, and is it sustainable? Many analysts believe that we are in the middle of a Bitcoin "supercycle," a phenomenon where a bullish increase in a market security's price drives it up even further. While this is an exciting time for cryptocurrency investors, it is important to understand what is happening before jumping in. A supercycle is a term used to describe a decades-long bullish run of commodities, but recently financial analysts have been using it to refer to Bitcoin. The growing interest in Bitcoin has driven its mainstream acceptance, and it is now seen as a legitimate investment that can deliver real value. As more e-commerce stores accept cryptocurrency as a form of payment, and investors gain more access to Bitcoin, its accessibility and utility will continue to grow. The increasing interest and investment in Bitcoin is driving up its price, leading many to believe that we are in the middle of a Bitcoin supercycle. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies offer an effective way to diversify investments and store cash, as they are not tied to any one country or currency. Bitcoin is seen as the ultimate global asset, with some even referring to it as "Gold 2.0" upon which the rest of our monetary system is based. While Bitcoin's price history is relatively short, some evidence suggests that we are in the middle of a Bitcoin supercycle. Bitcoin's market cycle is around 4 years long, and it consists of four phases: accumulation, continuation, parabolic, and correction. We are currently in the parabolic phase, which is marked by Bitcoin hitting all-time highs in price. While many investors will capture profits by selling some or all of their holdings, this can result in significant price corrections during the correction phase. In conclusion, Bitcoin is a legitimate investment with real value and growing mainstream acceptance. Although there is some evidence that we are in the middle of a Bitcoin supercycle, it is important to understand the different phases of its market cycle and the risks involved. As with any investment, it is crucial to do your own research and make informed decisions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
24
Solana - Back to Double Digits Solana is one of the best performers from the bull market, and was one of the few to actually achieve a 1000x increase. Multiple coins did this in 2017, but very few did this time around, most likely because leverage can now be used in the crypto market. Pumping altcoins by this much doesn't seem worth the risk anymore, considering they often just retrace most of their gains. Futures provide a much easier way for people to gain and lose money in the market. So, when a coin like SOL does extraordinarily well against Bitcoin, it MUST be due to fundamentals, right? The chain itself has stopped functioning more than once. 25% of the supply is held by the founders & team. Another 37% is held by initial investors. That's 62% held by people who got SOL for likely under $1. The remaining 38% was reserved for airdrops and the community. There's a lot of people BIG in profit on SOL. Latecomers probably own a very small portion of the supply. Additionally, NFT's are big on Solana, but I believe NFT's are in a huge bubble anyway. From a tech perspective, maybe it's better than Ethereum. However, the cyrpto market (over time) often doesn't really care about these things. Even in 2017, some of the best performing coins (XLM, NANO, XRP) were also some of the biggest losers. Those coins had significant advantages over Bitcoin, but could not compete with the network effect, or the economic incentives of proof-of-work. High fees were chosen over zero fees, and it remains that way to this day. Ethereum fees have remained consistently high throughout the bull market, and I think this makes crypto exclusionary. It shuts out any smaller crypto enthusiasts, and makes the whole NFT thing seem like a big scam - essentially a party for the wealthy where the ticket is your sanity and your small pile of cash. Anyway, I don't think the market cares about how fast or how low the fees are. Maybe it does momentarily, but the market is driven on hype and profitability. Under capitalism, barriers to entry increase the concentration of wealth at the top. So wealthy investors are incentivized to hold coins that are harder to obtain, and more expensive to use. Basically a status symbol. I think the market will turn on SOL, resulting in a correction at least back to the 50 week MA (red). The same can happen for SOL/BTC. In the short term, perhaps SOL can have a relief bounce towards the 9 week EMA (near $166). Ultimately, I think it can decline at least 50% from current prices, and perhaps even to test some levels below $60. Potential supports are shown on the chart above. Currently, we don't know how bad things can get for crypto. It's possible things really turn around soon, but I think we'd need a pretty impressive move up from the market to invalidate my bearish bias. This is not meant as financial advice. I'm posting this really out of curiosity - to see if huge bearish drawdowns continue to occur in the crypto market. I'm curious to see whether Solana can hold up, and last until a new potential cycle. -Victor Cobra
BINANCE:SOLUSDShort
by VictorCobra
50
The overall market capitalization may be renewing lows.In the chart, the maximum volumes go through the highs. We can see the honeycomb, the upside. Everything tells us about a possible renewal of the low. And then we will see the realization of the plans of MM. The sharp impulse up or "liquidate" all those who want to buy. If you liked the idea, please like it. That's the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Artem_Dishel
4
$FUNDUSD Unification PT 100 and higher The Future of FUND - Codegnosis It’s been a busy month since the successful completion of the MainNet upgrade. Although the foundation is deep in advisory services and development with our main external partners, the work to improve the internal network and platforms are as prominent/complimentary in the roadmap. Almost as soon as the last MainNet upgrade was complete, we began working on the next set of improvements for FUND mainchain. What Upgrade? A number of improvements and additions will be rolled out in the next update, including: Cosmos SDK 0.45.x Bringing FUND mainchain up to date with the latest stable release of Cosmos SDK, und v1.6.x implements the v0.45.x branch of the SDK (v0.45.6 at the time of writing). In addition to allowing FUND to be compatible with IBC and Gravity Bridge (more info below), one of the other things we’re really excited about with this SDK update is the ability to run in-place store migrations for this and future upgrades. This means that Validator operators will no longer need to manually stop their node at a given height, manually export the state to a new genesis, migrate the genesis and restart their node with the new genesis. This cumbersome process is now fully automated and does not require any genesis export/migration — operators can set up the upgrade in advance, with a tool such as Cosmovisor. IBC & Multi-Chain FUND und 1.6.x will bring FUND into the larger Cosmos ecosystem with the addition of the IBC and IBC transfer modules. These modules will allow FUND to be transferred to any IBC-supported chain. Once deployed, the Unification Foundation will run an IBC relayer, with channels connecting FUND with the Gravity Bridge chain — the first step on the road to enabling FUND as an ERC20 on Ethereum! The concept of IBC is quite simple: a user initiates an IBC transfer with the ibc-transfer transaction on the source chain — for example sending some FUND from FUND mainchain to “Chain B”. The FUND is locked in an escrow account within the IBC module on FUND mainchain (note — the source FUND is not burned on mainchain!), and proofs are generated. The proofs and transaction data are forwarded to “Chain B” via the relayer, and if everything checks out “Chain B” mints vouchers to represent the FUND sent. These vouchers can be transferred and used on “Chain B” with normal transactions. If a user wants to send FUND back from “Chain B” to FUND mainchain, then an ibc-transfer is initiated on “Chain B” with the vouchers as the source coin. Once proof has been verified, the vouchers on “Chain B” are burned, and the equivalent amount of FUND is unlocked from the escrow in the IBC module on FUND Mainchain and given back to the user. More details on how it works can be found here. As previously discussed, the existence and utility of FUND on EVM as an ERC20 (previously referred to as wFUND) is already in plan for private TestNet use of several large-scale projects for oracles and additional usage and will continue to grow in usage with all options including the utility and presence an all prominent EVM based AMM DEXs. BEACON/Wrkchain state pruning State bloat has been a long running concern for validator operators. The upgrade includes a major improvement for the BEACON and WRKChain modules to address this, with hash & timestamp state pruning. The vast majority of BEACONs and WRKChains don’t need to keep millions of hashes in-state, so it makes sense to modify the storage of old data sets to optimise network efficiency and state storage. Much like EVM smart contracts, all data submitted to mainchain is effectively archived via Transaction Events, which, with the latest in-place upgrades offered by Cosmos SDK, means event data is no longer “lost” during a chain upgrade. This means that while old data may no longer be held in the state DB, it will effectively still be accessible via transaction query filters to search for BEACON/WRKChain specific events. Starting from the upgrade height, BEACONs and WRKChains will be allocated 50,000 in-state storage spaces — this is the equivalent to approximately 1 month’s worth of hash submissions, (assuming 1 submission per minute). During the upgrade, the 50,000 most recent submissions for each BEACON/WRKChain will be retained in the state DB, and the rest will be pruned from state. New hash/timestamp submissions will be added to the top of the stack, and old data will be pruned via FILO. BEACON/WRKChain state storage purchase (and future storage subscriptions) If 50,000 in-state storage spaces are not sufficient, BEACON/WRKChain developers have the opportunity to purchase more storage — up to a total of 550,000 additional spaces, leading to a total of 600,000 spaces, which roughly equates to 1 year’s worth of in-state storage (assuming 1 hash is submitted per minute). Further, as with registration and hash submissions, eFUND can be used to purchase the additional storage, meaning that validators will be rewarded for these purchases in addition to rewards already received for registrations and submissions. Ultimately, this will lead to annual subscriptions for additional BEACON/WRKChain storage, which we believe is a fair way to reward validator operators, and ensure that a steady stream of eFUND is added to the general FUND circulating supply. eFUND usage — query spent eFUND Currently, if an end user wishes to see how much eFUND has been added to the general FUND circulating supply, a series of on-chain queries and some additional off-chain calculation is required. This process currently involves querying the chain for completed eFUND purchase orders (a completed PO means that eFUND has been minted and made available to the purchaser to pay for BEACON/WRKChain fees), and a second query to find out how much eFUND is currently “locked” (minted, but not yet part of the general FUND circulating supply — i.e. it can only be used for paying BEACON/WRKChain fees, and not general transfers/transactions). The difference between the two is the amount of eFUND that has been added to the circulating supply. With the next update, this is all tracked in-state and can be queried completely on-chain — both the total eFUND spent, and for each individual Enterprise address, making “eFUND inflation” much simpler to view. Staking Module Params As a requirement for IBC relayers to be able to interact with FUND mainchain, the historical_entries parameter for the Staking module will be set to 10,000 as part of the upgrade process. BankKeeper Denom Metadata Also as part of the upgrade process, denomination metadata for nund/FUND will be saved to the BankKeeper. Documentation Mainchain documentation is currently part of the mainchain GitHub repository. We aim to migrate all documentation into a dedicated repository, which we believe will make it more accessible and open up more opportunities for community involvement with maintenance and contribution. Further, we anticipate integrating other project documentation into the central repository over the coming months (VOR, OoO etc.). Wen Upgrade? Much of the upgrade roadmap is dependent on the date the initial TestNet governance proposal is submitted. The MainNet upgrade will be dependent on the success of the TestNet upgrade. As with the previous upgrade we aim to initialise the MainNet upgrade via governance approximately 1 month after a successful TestNet upgrade takes place. Further, the date of the actual TestNet upgrade will be difficult to predict, as (unlike the previous upgrade), this upgrade will be based on a future block height as opposed to a Unix timestamp. Predicting the time and date of a future block with fluctuating block times is an interesting task! The date will be officially announced soon, but the tentative roadmap at the time of writing is as follows: TestNet During week beginning 25th July — TestNet governance proposal for 1-ibc upgrade During week beginning 8th August — Voting period ends (2 weeks after proposal submitted) Approx. 1 week after voting period ends — TestNet upgrade executes. Post TestNet upgrade: Unification Foundation will deploy an IBC relayer and set up IBC connections between FUND TestNet and the Gravity Bridge chain testnet. Publish IBC channel details in appropriate repos to allow for testing MainNet Approx. 1 month after TestNet upgrade is executed (allowing for tests etc.) — governance proposal for MainNet 1-ibc upgrade Voting period runs for 2 weeks Approx. 1 week after voting period ends — MainNet upgrade executes. Post MainNet upgrade: FUND chain details will be added to the Cosmos chain Registrar repository Unification Foundation will deploy an IBC relayer and set up IBC connections between FUND MainNet and the Gravity Bridge chain mainnet. Gravity Bridge proposal submitted for FUND ERC20 We hope to be included in Mintscan explorer How Upgrade? The standard method for managing binaries and upgrades with the majority of Cosmos based chains is to run Cosmovisor. Cosmovisor is a wrapper around Cosmos SDK based binaries, and automatically monitors the chain for upgrades (which are created via governance proposals). When detected, cosmovisor automatically halts the node application at the correct upgrade height, and carries out the specified upgrade before restarting the node application with the new binary. Cosmovisor does require some initial setup and configuration by validator operators, but once this is done, upgrade management is as straight forward as creating a new directory, and downloading the latest und binary. A full guide to setting up cosmovisor in preparation for the upgrade will be published before the TestNet governance proposal is submitted in order to give validators plenty of time to prepare. A Quick Start guide to migrating systemd service files to use Cosmovisor can be found in our TestNet repo, which can be implemented now for TestNet (the process is the same for MainNet).
FLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
ETH And The First Real Bear Market Rally I'm back after a couple weeks of studying for my master's exam (which I passed!). I am officially almost a licensed social worker. Now, how that qualifies me to write about financial markets, I have no idea. Though, I certainly think they are related, as much of our social and system issues stem from poor economic policy and rampant exploitation in markets. In any case, welcome to the first significant bounce, after months of downside! I consider this the first "real" bear market rally because it is the first big bounce after a lower low (breakdown from the support held during the 2021 slump). I have been speculating about some sort of multi-month relief rally leading up to the midterm elections in the U.S., as political interests do not want markets in upheaval when their political positions are at stake. In the last several weeks, Ethereum has increased by well over 100% since the lows. Back in January, I wrote about how I thought $800 levels for ETH were possible, given the loss of the bull market uptrend and a number of other warning signs. Here is the original post: Since then, ETH perfectly headed down towards my "value zone." Now, I call it the "Dead Zone." I was still thinking I'd scoop some back up at those sub-$1000 prices after selling above $3k, but my long term stance on crypto has changed, and I don't really have any interest in owning any. I actually think continued price appreciation for these assets would be a net-negative for society. The more energy goes into intangible assets, the less goes into improving the physical world in which we live. Unless, of course, the goal is to NOT live in the physical world. Okay, you got me. That's clearly where the money is, baby. No more real world. Only metaverse. Only APE. APE APE APE. No, this is only an absurdity a human could design. That's the irony of the "Ape" culture, isn't it? Now, what's going on with ETH today? We've got pretty impressive volume off the lows. Whales seem to be manufacturing a rally leading up to the ETH merge and transition to proof of stake, while Bitcoin lags behind traditional markets. As I've written before, I think much of ETH's inflated value in 2021 had to do with the NFT bubble and the ridiculous fees (premiums) people were willing to pay. The fees acted as a gatekeeping mechanism, but it also served to increase FOMO, as people had to buy even more ETH to cover the cost of all their transactions and expensive pixel purchases. I do think this rally will fizzle out, but the question is - when? The market seems to be treating this as a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, which plays out in crypto fairly often. Other people are skeptical and think the rally is already about to fizzle out. This is possible, given that some indicators are showing signs of slowing momentum (bearish divergence on the oscillator, MACD looking precarious, etc.) Another camp believes that the rally will just keep going after the merge. Anything is possible! Ethereum can be particularly hard to trade. Just look at the ETH/BTC ratio: It broke down from what looked like a huge distribution pattern, but rebounded with immense strength and is now testing the highs. This is something I honestly did not expect, since I wrote about a long term top for the ratio here: I do still think it's possible ETH never achieves a new all-time high against Bitcoin, but it's starting to look possible that it will briefly make a new high in anticipation for the merge. There is one month left, supposedly. Since Bitcoin dominance has not really broken to the upside, and since ETH bounced with so much vigor, this reminds me a lot of the first major bear market rally in April 2018, which occurred off a big short squeeze. You can see the similarities here: The above shows the 3-day chart, and a rejection at the 50 MA (red). If ETH fails here, I think it's very possible it'll head down to the "Dead Zone" and break the recent lows. Then, I think it would be unlikely to recover anytime soon and could simply fizzle out as the rest of the crypto market continues to implode due to lack of liquidity and too much leverage. I took a small short here from $1890, with a target between $1390-1450 (2017 ATH zone). There is room for it to first head higher towards the downtrend on my chart, but Moving Averages have proven to be a bit more reliable than trendlines during this bear market, and particularly during chop. Let's see if it gives a big pullback here. As always, this is not meant as financial advice, but for speculative purposes only. I've been posting only periodically these days since I have other interests. I may wind down my posting even more. I am still working on my creative projects, including a sci-fi novel and my book about analyzing market behavior. That book is particularly hard to finish, because things are always evolving, and algorithms continue to become more advanced. Who knows? Maybe if I stopped posting entirely, a bot would take my place, as it would be able to perfectly imitate my writing and speech patterns. Maybe this isn't even me writing this right now. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by VictorCobra
11
2022/8/3 11:49 ETH/USD analysePivot Point: 1600 Currently: Consolidating at this 1740 level , its next support zone is at 1820 Reaction: Resisted at 1520 and retraced back to 1470 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by idealcase
Deeper Network DPR Crypto Bearish MDeeper Network DPR Crypto breaking down from the Bearish M Pattern with a drop to .0186cents. It is starting to hit the first resistance line, we will see if it can break thru or get pushed back down. Bullish News: Aug. 5 & 6, 2022 Deeper Network has an invitation to showcase at Sir Richard Branson’s Block Chain Summit on Necker Island at the Neckerverse Showcase for a chance to pitch to the Virgin Impact team and other global heavyweight investors. Bearish News: Possible Token Crash Starting around September 6, 2022 thru the next 8 months, investors getting Deeper Chain DPR returned to them who bought in at .006cents to .02cents. Deeper is only allowing 750,000 DPR total perday from the miners and the invests to go over the bridge from Deeper Chain to the other two chains to get to an exchange and to sell. Some of the people have set up computer programs to keep dumping coins over the bridge first so they do not get locked out when the daily total of 750,000 is hit. There was 2Billion token allocated to sell but they only advertise 1Billion being sold. DPR given out already to the investors that crashed the coin the first time, there is an estimated amount of 3.3Million to 6.6Million Deeper Chain DPR being released each day to their investors for the next 8 months starting in September 2022 thru May 2023. Will Deeper fully open the bridge or will they try to control their investors cash out for a second time, well see what happens…….. How will the miners plan for this apocalyptic scenario of no longer being able to move Deeper Chain DPR across the bridge to get it on an exchange to pay for their expenses? I foresee another massive upset that Deeper Network will hush the investors by kicking people out of there Deeper Network community social groups when people complain and get upset like what happened when they lock up the investors DPR the first time without paying them back as was promised in their smart contract that had a hidden back door in the smart contract to reprogram it and to lock back up again. This is a lack of trust that I don’t think Deeper Network will every out live. -Crypto Whale Information: See the Whale news on my channel for their Wallet address & Location, as you can track for yourself who is a true supporter and who is a dumper…… (AMA said Whales are allowed in the project now) - Deeper Chain Community Governance - Currently being controlled directly by Deeper Network, not by the Community but thru a back door in the program (Verified on AMA) - 7 Validator Nodes on Deeper Chain, 3 have been verified to be in control of by Deeper Network DEVs, apparently they can control votes on the Governance with their locked DPR rewards- Wallet Addresses 1st 5C4vNVT5pDroqufEtXKYp3RKrNXVTHk9yqTeNNUSnJ6EbGGY ; 2nd 5CJDFR5RCMxPwVdzgH6JA9D7M625FEFKrdsJG1JnQVQdQkH2 ; 3rd 5HCG6MvAhYgLZdPoD1BVHEjgKee9n4AhMLKfq64VLiM4znuU -Deeper Chain DPR Crypto Burn Wallet #1: (Warning this is a subject Deeper does not like to talk about) There has not been a routine burn setup yet promised by Deeper to fight inflation . The only burning is est 21DPR perday equivalent to about .80cents per day!!! from the Validator transactions which they are calling a “Routine Burning or Every Gas Fee”. The old burning was every 7 days and burnt all the treasury wallet. Then they slowed it down to every 24 Days thru the Treasury and to burn only about 1% now. There is credit burning set up for the miners, which is false advertisement because they only burn 1% of the money paid to buy credit to increase mining rewards. The rest of the money is added to the treasury wallet for Deeper to pay their DEVs instead. Waiting for Deeper Network to provide Burn Wallet Address for all three Blockchains so the community can monitor what they are being told. Talking about this subject will get you band and removed from Deeper Network Social media accounts so be aware………… Deeper Network has responded to my concern about this saying "that 1% of the treasury wallet is burned each day" but I don't believe that's what happens, I believe that only 1% of each transaction that is transferred to the Treasury wallet is then sent into the burn wallet only during the transaction process, not that 1% of the treasury wallet total is burned. So once the funds go into the Treasury wallet once the 1% has been taken out, the remaining funds are no longer programed to be burned. (...to be determined) At the moment it is unknown how to see a total burn amount from this wallet but you can see how much DPR will be burned in the next 7 day burn period. -Deeper Chain DPR Crypto Burn Wallet #2: Deeper Network has not provided the wallet address from the burning during the Pico sale so the community can monitor the wallet activity. - Deeper Token ECR-20 Blockchain Ethereum Burn Wallet Address - Deeper Network has not provided the wallet address from the burning during the Pico sale so the community can monitor the wallet activity. - Deeper Token BSC Binance Smart Chain Burn Wallet Address - Deeper Network has not provided the wallet address, nothing would be in the wallet address that i would be aware of if it exist yet - Deeper Chain Treasury Wallet Address: 5EYCAe5ijiYfyeZ2JJCGq56LmPyNRAKzpG4QkoQkkQNB5e6Z (At the moment this is funded by the left over Validator Transactions & Burn DPR for Credit Score Increase, 1% of Transactions going into the wallet are Burned, this is confirmed) - Polkadot Parachain for Deeper Chain – not yet, no future plans at the moment (Verified by Polkadot Support) -10 Billion DPR Total: 6 Billion DPR will be mined within 25years (Verified on AMA); & 4 Billion DPR Belong to Deeper & Investors -Location of Deeper Network servers where VPN data is stored: Unverified, Programmers working from China, ect. , Government Jurisdiction over VPN data information unknown, Privacy VPN info shows data is kept by Deeper Network, time period kept unknown. - Deeper Network VPN / DPN equipment concerns: They say they do not keep logs of records of your internet access BUT!!!!! When you login to the device for the first time it makes you approve there two privacy agreements first. Terms and Condition of Use agreement under point Prohibited and restricted uses point #25 say : “We shall have the right… to monitor User Content”; The second agreement you must approve is the Deeper Network Privacy Policy under Data we Collect says “We may receive access to basic personal information from your social network accounts should you register or sign onto such services using Deeper Network Products or Services” (Why in the world is Deeper trying to collect your personal information?????????), then under section Data Retention it says “We will keep records containing personal data….. as maybe required by applicable laws (So then which governments laws are you under because there are countries that require no data collected) at the end of the day Deeper Network is not a Decentralized VPN because your data is collected in Deeper Networks Servers and Deeper Does not allow the Miners with the Exit Nodes for the VPN service to erase the VPN data on there own devices, even if their country allows for no logs to be collected. Will Deeper Network change their policy’s to be in harmony with what they told their community of NO LOGS/DATA KEEP BY DEEPER and ONLY DATA COLLECTED ON EACH EXIT NODE, apparently, they changed their minds…… Pico - At the moment the Pico is only good for mining with a Staked credit score, if the Pico has its own Public IP and is connected for months without being disconnected it will currently not get 10mb of traffic each day to get an increased organic credit score as an exit node, they network currently will choose a faster path out thru a Mini instead. So the Pico at the moment is not a good mining device if that's what you bought it for. This has been confirmed. -Company Info: -Deeper Network INC of the Marshal Islands (no office location there currently) Crypto Currency company that was set up as a shell company, filed on March 8, 2019 Entity number 100333 (Legal system mixed legal system of US and English common law, customary law, and local statutes; International law organization participation accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction with reservations; accepts ICCt jurisdiction) -Deeper Network Inc of Delaware USA (no office location there currently) Software Developer/ VPN / DPN , Entity 201816910575 6/14/2018, EIN Tax ID# 841835438, State ID 04799167 This is the company that controls everything. -Location Of Head Quartiers Office (5200 Great America Pkwy, Santa Clara, California, 95054) : The main temp office rental location no longer exists that is advertised and on Entity Documents the location is currently enmity and abandoned, supposedly working remotely from home and out of a shipping warehouse since the past two years or longer, unable to verify from the last trip to California. No new permanent office location currently that I am aware of that has been verified. (A Few people have come and gone from the head ranks, not sure if currently accurate) Chief Executive Officer: Hui (Russell) Liu; San Jose, California Chief Technology Officer: Hui Liu/Chao Ma Secretary/Chief Financial Officer: Xiaoshuai (Cheryl) Liu ; Maple Ridge, British Columbia, Canada Corporate Officer: Adam Wolfe Lei Chang; Saratoga, California Chief Marketing Officer: Eric Ma (Thailand) Chief Branding Officer: Yinan S. Software Developer: Arturo Jimenez Product manager: Kain Xu
by C-J_
2022/7/8 15:00 ETH/USD analysePivot Point: 1237 Currently: Consolidating at this 1295 level , its next support zone is at 1335 Reaction: Resisted at 1194 and retraced back to 1153 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by idealcase