BITCOIN Entering Cyclical Profit Zone. Risk should be limited.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just entered the first level of the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) Resistance Zone, which is the light pink band. The Top of the previous Cycle was priced at the top of the band just above this.
In fact every BTC Cycle had this as the 'Profit taking Zone'. The market marginally touched that also within December 2024 - January 2025 but got rejected, almost in similar fashion as January 2021, which was a Double Top approach of the peak formation during the previous Cycle.
This Cycle Top is expected to be within October - November 2025, so we call this the 'Profit Taking Zone' for a reason. Risk exposure from now on should be getting more and more limited. Peak range (depending of the nature of aggression of potential Rate Cuts in September) could be anywhere within $140 - 200k.
Do you think this is the time to start limiting BTC exposure, perhaps moving some of the huge profits to alts? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrencies
$PENGU Taking a Breather? CSECY:PENGU Taking a Breather? Wave 4 May Be Brewing
After a strong move, CSECY:PENGU looks like it might be pausing for breath. The recent action suggests we may have just wrapped up a small-degree Wave 3, with price now struggling to clear a key resistance level from earlier in the structure.
That hesitation could mark the early stages of a Wave 4 correction...Conservatively.
Here’s the zone I’m watching for a potential W4 pullback:
- .236 to 50% retracement of Wave 3, measured from the Wave 2 low
- Most Likely Target (MLT) sits right around the .382 fib
- Keep an eye on time symmetry—Wave 4 may offset the time duration of Wave 2
- Price could react off the base channel as a support guide
If this is a W4, it could give us a clean continuation setup into Wave 5—provided it holds structure and doesn’t overlap the Wave 1 territory. Stalking the pullback as it plays out, and am ready to react if we see support step in at the expected fib levels or the base channel.
Trade Safe!
Trade Clarity!
ETHBTC shows that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin MASSIVELY!The ETHBTC pair has been rebounding hyper aggressively after the April 21 2025 Low on the 6-year Support Zone, and is now facing it's most important test, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
This trend-line has been its Resistance since basically March 13 2023, so if broken, it will be a massive bullish break-out signal.
In fact during the 2020 - 2021 Bullish Leg, once the price broke above the 1W MA50, the market got the final confirmation of the upcoming long-term rally.
We expect Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin for the rest of the year at least.
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"ORDI/USDT: Pirate’s Treasure Trade! Bullish & Loaded"🚨 ORDI/USDT HEIST ALERT! 🚨 ORDI/USDT Bullish Raid Plan (Thief Trading Style) 💰🎯
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Based on our elite Thief Trading analysis (technical + fundamental heist intel), we’re plotting a bullish robbery on ORDI/USDT. Our goal? Loot profits near the high-risk resistance zone before the "Police Barricade" (bear traps & reversals) kicks in!
🚨 Trade Setup (Day/Swing Heist Plan):
Entry (📈): "The vault is open! Swipe bullish loot at any price!"
Pro Tip: Use buy limits near 15M/30M swing lows for safer pullback entries.
Advanced Thief Move: Layer multiple DCA limit orders for maximum stealth.
Stop Loss (🛑): 8.300 (Nearest 4H candle body swing low). Adjust based on your risk tolerance & lot size!
Target (🎯): 14.400 (or escape early if the market turns risky!).
⚡ Scalper’s Quick Loot Guide:
Only scalp LONG!
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Use trailing SL to lock profits & escape safely!
💎 Why ORDI/USDT? (Fundamental Heist Intel)
✅ Bullish momentum in play!
✅ Macro trends, & intermarket signals favor upside!
✅ News-driven volatility? Expect big moves!
⚠️ WARNING: Market Cops (News Events) Ahead!
Avoid new trades during high-impact news!
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XRPUSD Has it started the mega rally to $8.500??XRP (XRPUSD) has been trading within a Triangle pattern for the past 6 months (January - July 2025) and only recently, it broke to the upside. Ahead of a pending 1D Golden Cross, this pattern is no different than the one of the previous Cycle from May - December 2017.
That setup resulted into the final Parabolic Rally of the Cycle that peaked just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As you can see, both fractals are identical even from their starts, both initiated after a Falling Wedge that produced the first Parabolic Rally (green), which transitioned into the Triangle we described. Even their 1D RSI sequences are similar.
As a result, it is more than probable to see XRP hit $8.500 (Fib 1.5 ext), by the end of the year.
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BITCOIN Should we still trust the Stock to Flow model??It sure worked perfectly during Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) first Cycles, but the Stock-to-Flow model has greatly diverged from the current price action since March 2024.
Right now the model sits at around $750000, which is vastly above the current market price of $119000. It's been trading sideways actually since June 2024 and all of the times that it was ranging, Bitcoin eventually caught up and closed the gap.
It has always been a 'story' of divergence and convergence but it sure seems unrealistic to catch up this time, especially during if this Cycle continues to follow the 4-year model.
So what do you think? Should we still trust what seems more and more like an 'obsolete' model as mass adoption kicks in? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Will it go lower?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) pulled back rather aggressively yesterday after marginally breaking above $123000 and making a new All Time High (ATH).
We've mentioned before the similarities of this Bullish Leg to the April - May structure and so far the current pull-back having already touched the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, resembles the late April pull-back.
However, besides the 0.236 Fib, that pull-back also hit its 4H MA50 and rebounded, so that's a condition that hasn't been fulfilled. If it does, we are potentially looking for a Low around the $115k mark. Notice also how both fractals are supported by a Higher Lows trend-line exactly on their respective 4H MA100 (green trend-line) levels.
If BTC continues to replicate this pattern, we expect to see $140000 (+43.05% from the bottom) by early August.
Will the Support levels hold and push it that high? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN High after High going for the Cycle Top!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a new All Time High (ATH) today, just north of $123000 and shows absolutely no signs of stopping there!
The brilliantly structured 2.5-year Channel Up (blue) that has been dominating the entirety of the current Bull Cycle since the November 2022 market bottom, has been on its latest Bullish Leg since the April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1W MA50 has been the Cycle's natural Support level since the March 13 2023 bullish break-out, never broken after, just like it has been for the 2019 - 2021 Bull Cycle (excluding of course the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID crash).
In fact the similarities of the whole 2022 - 2025 Cycle are strong with the 2018 - 2021 Cycle. Similar Bear Cycles of -80% on average, followed by strong Lower Highs break-outs and subsequent consolidations within the 0.786 - 0.618 Fibonacci range, takes us to today with the April 2025 1W MA50 bounce resembling the July 2021 one.
Eventually, that Bullish Leg led to the Cycle's Top a little above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. The market seems to be only one step away of completing that past pattern and if it does, BTC may hit $170000 before the Cycle peaks.
Do you think that is a likely scenario after today's new fresh ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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NETFLIX 1D MA50 test is a new buy opportunity.Netflix (NFLX) has been rising non-stop since the April 07 bottom on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This bottom has been the latest Higher Low of the 3-year Channel Up that started on the June 14 2022 bottom.
This kickstarted its third long-term Bullish Leg. The previous two have been fairly similar (+210% and +195.93%) so we can assume a minimum total rise of +195.93% until the next top (Higher High of the Channel Up).
We can also see that on each Bullish Leg, after the initial rebound, the stock always tested the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) around the 0.236 Time Fibonacci level. That has always been the best buy opportunity of that stage.
As a result, we believe that the recent short-term correction is a buy opportunity in disguise, targeting a Higher High at $2200.
Check out our previous analysis on Netflix:
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BITCOIN hit new ATH above $118k and isn't stopping there!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above its previous All Time High (ATH) Zone and the buying pressure accelerated so much that it even crossed above the $118k level early in the E.U. session.
Technically the bullish trend doesn't seem to stop there as following the Bull Flag (we've analyzed this extensively the previous days) break-out of mid-May to June, the long-term Bullish Leg that started on the April 07 2025 bottom, is looking now for its 2nd Phase (extension).
Based on the previous two Bullish Legs since 2024, we should be expecting at least a +91.12% rise from the April bottom, as so far the symmetry among all three fractals is remarkable. Equally strong Bearish Legs (around -32%) of roughly 112 days each, gave way to the Bullish Legs, which supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) pushed the market higher.
If this pattern continues to be replicated, we should expect this Leg to peak a little over $140000 before the next correction.
Do you think we'll get there? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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DOGE started its final rally. Don't miss it.Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) has been trading on a Bullish Megaphone pattern within a Channel Up. The recent (June 16 2025) rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is a Higher Low at the bottom of both patterns.
With the 1W RSI also rebounding on its long-term Support Zone, Doge is most likely at the start of the new Bullish Leg, which could be the final rally that will shape this Cycle's Top.
As the previous two Bullish Legs peaked on the 3.618 Fibonacci extension of the last decline, Doge is technically targeting $1.2500. If you (naturally) wish to pursue a Target within the Channel Up though, you can settle for $0.800.
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ETHEREUM ahead of the most critical break-out of the Cycle.Ethereum (ETHUSD) is on the cusp of a major bullish break-out as this week it is already trading above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). If it manages to close the 1W candle above it, it will be the first time since January 06 2025 to do so.
This whole price action remains inside a massive Megaphone pattern and resembles the same structure ETH had during June 24 2019 - July 20 2020. Both patterns had a final decline of around -67% with the 2020 structure eventually starting a (green) Channel Up that broke above the Megaphone and made a first Top on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, if the break-out does happen this time around also, we expect the emerging Channel Up to target at least $6300 (Fib 1.382 ext).
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BITCOIN facing the most important Roadblock of the Cycle.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached $112000 yesterday, testing the May 22 2025 All Time High (ATH) and immediately got rejected. This ATH rejection is key to the continuation of the bullish trend as the entirety of the ATH Resistance Zone is perhaps the last (and most important) Roadblock before the final rally of the Cycle that could potentially price the new Top.
You can see that this Resistance Zone already had 3 rejections previous on its bottom and yesterday was the first one on its top.
A break above it can target $118400 at least within days, in anticipation of a +10.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the one following the June 22 Low.
If the rejection prevails however, we may see a pull-back that will test the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN turning the Bull Flag into Support??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading sideways, almost flat, since the July 03 High, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Perhaps the strongest development of the week though is the fact that this consolidation has been taking place at the top (Lower Highs) of what we previously identified as a Bull Flag pattern.
Together with the 1D MA50, this Lower Highs trend-line forms a formidable Support, which as long as it holds, can technically fulfil the technical expectations out of this pattern and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $168500.
Is this one step closer to our 'fair valued' $150k Target for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is there enough time for another parabolic rally?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is practically consolidating on the short-term, having just recently been rejected off its new All Time High (ATH). Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook is still a very strong, structured uptrend, a Channel Up pattern that is now technically aiming for its next Higher High.
Incredibly enough, this Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom, has been almost entirely within the Buy Zone (green) of the Fibonacci Channel Up going back all the way to April 2013!
As you can see during the previous two Cycles, every time BTC got above that Buy Zone, it started a parabolic rally. So far, we haven't got such rally on the current Cycle and with time running out (assuming the 4-year Cycle model continues to hold), do you think we will get one this time around?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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KAIAUSD Buy this level for a bullish continuation.Kaia (KAIAUSDT) is pulling back towards its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for a technical re-test of its natural long-term Support.
We think it will be a January 2024 type of test, with a breach and subsequent rebound to test the Resistance and potentially a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) test. Target 0.32000.
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TAIKO/USDT NEW INCREASE VIEWThe latest data shows that this coin is entering a new uptrend, which can be confirmed in the coming time frames, see the last update.
In trading, it's about building a real, confirmed trend, starting with building and holding levels.
The keys are: Start of a new cycle, start of new smart money
This coin is at the first level of scan, and time frames should confirm if it's an interesting coin or not. Until now, there is no confirmation; only the first scan shows it can be interesting.
* This coin is a high-risk coin.
BITCOIN Golden Cross going to slingshot it to $130kBitcoin (BTCUSD) has completed a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame and is attempting to keep the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. If successful, it has high probabilities of staging a Channel Up similar to April - May, which peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
So far, the bases of those to fractals are virtually identical, with a Lower Highs trend-line initially acting as a Resistance, which broke and on the current one it is testing the final Resistance (dotted trend-line).
This is the green circle, which on April 21 staged a quick consolidation before breaking aggressively upwards. If the pattern continues to repeat itself, we can get $130k (Fib 2.618 ext) at the end of the Channel Up.
Do you think it will? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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SUI Historic Pitchfork targets $10 at least!Sui (SUIUSD) has been staging a bounce attempt on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since last week and if the current 1W candle closes in green, it will be the first 2-week green streak of Sui since March 24.
There are high probabilities of a sustainable rebound here, that may very well turn into a strong parabolic rally, similar to those of August - December 2024 and October 2023 - March 2024.
The reason is that the price hit and is staging this rebound attempt on the 0.786 level of the Pitchfork, which is where it started the April 07 2025 rally.
If we repeat the 'shortest' of those parabolic rallies (+492.14%), then we should hit $10.00 at least, which will also test the 0.236 level of the Pitchfork.
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ADAUSD Is this 1W Golden Cross what the market needs??Cardano (ADAUSD) just formed a 1W Golden Cross this week, the first in its history, amidst a continuous bearish sequence since the December 02 2024 High. With its 1W RSI just below neutrality, this simply highlights the undervalued condition of this token relative not only to the rest of the high cap market, but also to its previous Bull Cycle.
As you can see, based both on 1W RSI and price action terms, we may be in a consolidation phase similar to September - November 2020, at the end of a Megaphone pattern. That pattern was the Accumulation vessel of the Cycle that led to the massive 2021 parabolic rally and the eventual Cycle Top / Higher High of the historic Channel Up.
According to that, we should be expecting a 1.236 Fibonacci extension test, targeting $5.000.
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BITCOIN now starts ascent to $150k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last week with a strong green 1W candle, recovering all loses and has started the current one with a stable rise. As stable as the whole Bull Cycle has been so far since the November 2022 market bottom.
The current uptrend is the technical Bullish Leg that has always emerged the Triple Support Combo of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and former Resistance, turned Support (Pivot).
As you can see, this has happened 2 times already and this is the 3rd. The previous one peaked a little above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which gives us an immediate Target on a 2-month horizon at $150000. This confirms a number of previous studies we conducted, all leading towards this price or around it.
So do you think all roads lead to $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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