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Cycle4

CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels. The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE). We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post). ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING? As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market. CME GAP Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles. To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post. The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close. NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle. 21W EMA & 20W SMA Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC. ORANGE TREND LINE Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher. * Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top. * Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s). Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
1
CYCLE 4 | BTC If Perfect Cycle - ATM Target Zone [For Fun]IF PERFECT CYCLE - ATM TARGET ZONE For this post (just for fun) if BTC is allowed to run to it historic tends this cycle, then I have marketed the projected 'ATH Target Zone', based on the current state of my price modelling, cycle mapping, oscillators, indicators and technical analysis tends. Weekly RSI - CURRENT ANALYSIS While the weekly RSI bearish divergence (yet to be locked in) looks eerily familiar to our double peak top the 2021 cycle, if this does eventuate then we will be looking for BULLs to continually invalidate similar to the 2017 bull run. If there is a reasonable pull back at this point (30% to 40% pull back) and we retest and hold the 21W EMA 20W SMA, then this would be consistent with the 2017 bull run at this point in the cycle and we would then want to see bulls invalidate the bearish divergence on the weekly RSI to have confidence in the possibility of more upward price action ahead. FOLLOW ALONG WITH THIS POST! What do you think about this chart? Am I too bullish or bearish with this zone? Will be fun to track this moving forward.
Long
by Brodie
Cycle Top Indicator [CTI] | Deep Dive AnalysisIn this post we will look at some of the long-term trends identified with the tracking of the CTI indicator (Red and Green Moving averages in the price chart), and what we can learn from the observed behaviors over Cycle 1 / 2 / 3 and possible implications for Cycle 4. INDICATOR RECAP The CTI indicator attempts to model the cycle top based on observed historic price over extension from Cycle 1 / 2. Indicator marks a cycle top when the 'Fast MA' (Red Line) crosses above the 'Slow MA' (Green Line). I.e. the condition where both MAs price value is equal. I should be noted that this condition was achieve for every cycle to date so far, and that the condition was met twice for the experienced 'double peak top' in Cycle 1 but was only met for the first of the two peak tops during Cycle 3. OSCILLATOR: % DISTANCE MODELLED BETWEEN SLOW (GREEN MA) & FAST (RED MA) – NORMALISED TO PRICE The below oscillator models the %Distance away from each other the Green Line and the Red line gets over BTC's cycles (Normalised to Price). * RED HORIZONTAL LINE: When the oscillator is equal to 1, this models the price value of the Green and Red moving averages as equal (or the CTI cycle top condition) * ORANGE HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark the maximum over extension the Red MA exceeded the Green MA during a cycle top condition. * GREEN HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark low levels of the oscillator, indicator maximum distance of the Red MA below the Green MA during each cycle. BLACK SLOPING TREND LINE(s): Represent the diminishing trend of overlap between the Green and Red Mas each cycle. * VERTICAL RED AND GREEN LINES: Show cycle tops and bottoms as triggered by the CTI and CBI (Cycle Bottom Indicators) – NOTE: CBI moving averages not shown. SIGNIFICANCE OF ORANGE HORIZONTAL & BLACK TREND LINES It is observable that each peak of the Oscillator is lower than the previous cycle peak (each peak is marked with an Orange horizontal line). This diminishing trend is shown with each orange line marked lower than the line before, and modeled with the Black downward sloping trend line(s) connecting the peaks. A reminder that the Red Horizontal line shows the condition with the CTI models the cycle top and conditions above the Red Horizontal line show the % distance the Red MA reaches above the Green MA each cycle. For example: * Cycle 1 Peak = 1.58 * Cycle 2 First peak = 1.25 * Cycle 2 Second peak = 1.20 * Cycle 3 First peak = 1.07 The diminishing trend of this relationship over each cycle (if historic behavior continues) suggest that the CTI overlap condition for cycle 4 my not eventuate. This would be modeled by our oscillator not exceeding the red line in Cycle 4. The learnings for this analysis could suggest that waiting for the CTI indicator to Fire may result in a non-event for Cycle 4. SIGNIFICANCE OF GREEN HORIZONTAL LINES A surprising finding from this analysis show for all cycles to date that when the modeled oscillator reaches levels between -1.11 and -1.82 and particularly for Cycles 2 / 3 & 4 between -1.50 & -1.82 (Red MA % distance below the Grean MA), Historically BTC has found its cycle bottom. These findings are summarized below for quick reference. * CYCLE 1-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.11 <> -1.82 * CYCLE 2-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.50 <> -1.82 Feel free to include any other observations I may have missed in the comments below. i intend to do a similar analysis for the CBI indicator when I find the time.
BNC:BLX
by Brodie
CYCLE 4 | RSI Monthly TrendA quick post to cover Bitcoins Cycles with respect to the Monthly RSI. We can see based on the monthly close RSI values, a descending trend where each consecutive peak for consecutive bitcoins cycles have reduced in magnitude (i.e. a lower low RSI value coinciding with the trend reversal points. This trend is also evident with monthly RSI low values. Using trend lines (based on historic BTC behavior in the past), we can speculate what would not be abnormal monthly RSI behavior for this cycles (Cycle 4) top and the future bear market low. Have a play with the interactive tools in the post to observe details more clearly. I have also detailed Cycle 1-3 length from the bottom to the top, bear markets (top to bottom), halving's and each cycles Fib extensions for your reference. For greater detail, reference the below companion post to this discussion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
CYCLE 4 | SMA Golden Ratio [UPDATE]For those following along with this indicator, the current price action volatility has accelerated price to some interesting historic points. As discussed in prior post above, historically BTC has followed a trend of dropping to the lower SMA extension coloured line with each cycle with interesting multiple hits in establishing our 2021 technical cycle top. We have already tagged the gold line and currently approaching the 'Gray Line' which put in our prior cycles ATH. Will be interesting to see how BTC (buyers / sellers) handles this price level and the information this may provide on how useful this indicator may be this cycle....
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & OverlayThis post is intended as an interactive companion post with a 'to follow' detail post for historic analysis. I want to explore the relationship with BTC and Realised Price, and historically where we have seen cycle over bought and sold regions based on extensions from calculated realised price values. What is Realized Price? Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com "Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price." The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies. I will follow this post with a zoomed version for detailed discussion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC | BTC COLOURED CANDLES [Weekly]Hi All. Since my prior post on this indicator, I have been asked to show this indicator with risk level colours against price. I initially built this functionality in originally (during the development of this indicator) a number of different ways but ended up simplifying to using pine scrip 'bar color' function. This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over / under extension and volatile ranges in prior cycles on the Weekly chart. I will follow this post showing the daily chart. Feel free to interact with the chart on a computer via this post (phone apps only show the static image with trading view posts).
BNC:BLXLong
by Brodie
SMA Golden Ratio | CYCLE 4 ATH UpdateIn accordance with historical behavior, BTCs ATH each cycle has corresponded with the next SMA line down (following a multiplication factor of the Fibonacci sequence). As observed in CYCLE 3, BTC tag the BLUE line putting in the Technical High of this cycle meaning CYCLE 4 should tag the Yellow line if History is to repeat. The Second and ATH top of CYCLE 3 tag two lines down hitting the gray line. We can see BTC has already tag the Yellow line when BTC tage ~73K USD. Looking at CYCLE 3, BTC played with the BLUE line multiple times before settling with the top. Considering this in CYCLE 4 BTC may make another attempt at intercepting the Yellow line again depending no how parabolic BTC will be over the AUS summer period will land the price in the zones discussed in the below post. BTC in CYCLE 4 may also contact the gray line and in this scenario most tops out around the 100K region December 2024 / January 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
BUY / SELL INDICATOR| CYCLE 4 ATH UpdateAssuming we reach the Light Red line again of the BUY / SELL indicator, as per our analysis in the below post this could suggest an ATH for CYCLE 4 could land in the 117K to 157K region. It is noted while it was the second top in CYCLE 3; our purple line met / crossed but did not exceed past our orange signal line materially (see red arrow above). This marked the second and ATH of Cycle 3. We are approaching this scenario with the orange and purple line as we approach the mid 90K region (see cross and second red arrow above). Worth tracking on your radar. Again if we continued on as we have with prior cycles and reach either or both the Red Lines of the BUY / SELL indicator we would be expecting a very parabolic period ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
The Birth of a new Bitcoin CycleHello Folks, it's been 2,5 years since I predicted in May 2020 that Bitcoin will reach 70-150K when the price of Bitcoin was below 10K. I now believe that Bitcoin Circle 4 has started. Let me explain why! I did this using historic data of Bitcoin and it's halving dates of its 4 cycles. Bitcoin halvings used to have an extreme influence on the price as it made it harder for miners to acquire BTC rewards for mining which they subsequently released on the market, causing the price to drop when BTC supply was relatively thin. Now with most of BTC's maximum supply already circulating, miners releasing their BTC rewards into the market is just like a drop in the ocean. That means, that halvings are mostly psychological events for the BTC price which fundamentally don't influence Bitcoin much other than dropping its hashrate for a short amount of time and making the business of miners less profitable, causing many of them to stop operations and increasing market share for the more established miners. Nevertheless, Bitcoin halvings do have a psychological effect on the market that is sticking: A couple weeks after every halving BTC started its halving run, catapulting the BTC price to new highs in the timespan of roughly a year before collapsing 80-90% again to start a new cycle. Due to trades trading accordingly and the severe psychological effects of these swings I excpect those 4 year cycles to continue. For comparison, here is how the halving runs (HR) and their aftermath of every cycle looked like: HR Cycle 1 HR Cycle 2 HR Cycle 3 At the end of Cycle 3 I overlayed the performances of Cycle 1 - Cycle 2 (purple) and Cycle 2 - Cycle 3 (blue) to the top of our HR circle top 3 (green). HR 1 top -> low occured after 411 days from top. HR 2 top -> low occured after 363 days from top. Our current top (9th of November 2022) -> low occured 364 days from top, pretty much matching HR2 top and also its timeframe from BTC halving date to top (HR2 was 556 days, HR3 was 548 days). That HR3 low was slightly broken 1,5 weeks later on the 21st of November but can be considered a soft double bottom. According to the paths of Cycle 1-2 and Cycle 2-3 we should be heading to 30-50K in the next 6-12 months before retracing to 20-30K. After that, it will be the run-up to the halving run. The date of the next Bitcoin halving is still unknown. At the time of the making of this chart it was scheduled to be May 2 2024, right now it's scheduled to be on March 17 2024 due to hash rate increases. As I expect some miners to stop operations till then, the date might move back a couple weeks or months again. In this chart I still use May 2 2024. as we get close to the halving date I will a djust my chart accordingly and publish an update. Using history data and calculating possibilites I came up with a path for the next halving run: I estimate for Bitcoin to top out around 120K. However, as we can't predict the future, the real number might rather be between 80K-170K. Disclaimer: As always, nothing is guaranteed. Bitcoin might change its behavior completely somewhen. This is a calculation on how things went in the past - past performances can never guarantee future performances.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by The_Silen
5