AR Long Spot Trade (Resistance Consolidation Opportunity)Market Context:
AR has moved into a critical resistance zone, where price consolidation could occur before the next upward leg. This presents an opportunity to position for potential breakout gains.
Trade Details:
Entry Zone: Ladder between $23.00 and $27.00.
Take Profit Targets:
First target: $40.00 - $45.00
Second target: $70.00 - $80.00
Stop Loss: Set a deeper stop loss just below $20.00.
This trade anticipates consolidation within the resistance area, with a setup aimed at capturing substantial upside momentum.
D-AR
Analyzing ARBTC: Next Potential Breakout Zones - Arweave◳◱ On the $AR/ CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart, the Trend Reversal pattern suggests a pause in volatility, potentially gearing up for a breakout. Traders might observe resistance around 0.0002543 | 0.0002838 | 0.0003536 and support near 0.0001845 | 0.0001442 | 0.0000744. Entering trades at 0.0002567 could be strategic, aiming for the next resistance level.
◰◲ General info :
▣ Name: Arweave
▣ Rank: 82
▣ Exchanges: Binance, Kucoin, Huobipro, Hitbtc
▣ Category/Sector: Services - File Storage
▣ Overview: Arweave is a data storage protocol built on blockweave technology. Arweave is developing an underlying network where data can be stored forever and accessed on its permaweb, a secondary layer where data is accessible in a human-readable manner (e.g. via web browsers).
◰◲ Technical Metrics :
▣ Mrkt Price: 0.0002567 ₿
▣ 24HVol: 14.523 ₿
▣ 24H Chng: 2.557%
▣ 7-Days Chng: 19.36%
▣ 1-Month Chng: 61.44%
▣ 3-Months Chng: 16.64%
◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels :
◥ Resistance: 0.0002543 | 0.0002838 | 0.0003536
◢ Support: 0.0001845 | 0.0001442 | 0.0000744
◱◳ Indicators recommendation :
▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL
▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY
◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : BUY
◲◰ Sharpe Ratios :
▣ Last 30D: 4.00
▣ Last 90D: 0.95
▣ Last 1-Y: 1.45
▣ Last 3-Y: 0.30
◲◰ Volatility :
▣ Last 30D: 1.39
▣ Last 90D: 1.11
▣ Last 1-Y: 1.34
▣ Last 3-Y: 1.18
◳◰ Market Sentiment Index :
▣ News sentiment score is N/A
▣ Twitter sentiment score is N/A
▣ Reddit sentiment score is N/A
▣ In-depth ARBTC technical analysis on Tradingview TA page
▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated!
◲ Disclaimer
Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk.
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AR COIN SWING LONG - Arweave Long OpportunityAR is one of my favorite coins fundamentally. It has a strong foundation in storage and distributed computing, which could play a crucial role in integrating AI technology with crypto. I won’t go deep into the details here, but you can read more about it online if you’re interested.
Technical Analysis:
The price reached the monthly demand, ran the daily swing liquidity, and couldn't close below it. We saw a strong rejection from that level, which led to a break in the daily structure.
Additionally, we broke the bearish trendline responsible for the downtrend since spring 2024. The trendline has been retested and rejected, further reinforcing the bullish bias. I believe we could soon see strong upward momentum on this coin.
I’ve purchased a spot bag and opened a futures position at this level, targeting significant upside and potentially holding as a swing trade until all-time highs.
AR Long Spot Trade (Support Retest)Market Context: AR has retraced to a significant support zone between $18 and $20, following a rejection around $24. This retracement offers a favorable entry point for a long position, with potential for a rebound toward higher resistance levels.
Trade Details:
Entry: Between $18.00 and $20.00
Take Profit Targets:
First target: $24.00 – $26.50
Second target: $32.00 – $35.00
Stop Loss: Just below $16.00
Rationale: The current support zone aligns with previous price action, suggesting a potential for upward movement. The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, with a clear stop loss below the recent support level.
Note: Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before entering any trade.
Is #ARUSDT Ready to Skyrocket or Dive? Key Levels to WatchYello, Paradisers! Have you been watching #ARUSDT? Let's look at the latest analysis of #Arweave and see what's happening:
💎Currently, #AR is trading within a falling wedge, a pattern often associated with bullish reversals. The price is retesting the descending resistance, with increasing volume and the 50EMA reinforcing a bullish momentum. These are promising signals, but the next steps are critical to confirm the breakout.
💎#Arweave is approaching the $15.40 support level, a vital zone that could spark a new leg up if held. A rally from this point, combined with a break above the descending resistance, would mark a significant shift in the market structure. Such a move could pave the way for higher resistance targets and signal a sustained upward trend.
💎However, if #ARUSDT fails to hold this demand zone, the price could slip further to test the $12.38 support. This range, aligning with a previous low, serves as a crucial price floor. A failure to reclaim $15.40 with strength would jeopardize the bullish case.
💎A daily close below $12.38 would invalidate the bullish outlook entirely. In such a scenario, Arweave risks setting a new lower low, potentially leading to further declines and increased bearish pressure.
Always aim for precision and keep a close eye on the critical zones to maximize your trading edge.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
AR Long Spot Trade (Support Zone) Market Context: AR has moved into a key support zone, presenting an opportunity to ladder into a long spot position. This range provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio if support holds and the price reverses upwards.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Ladder in between $11.00 - $12.75
Take Profit:
First target: $17.50 - $20.00
Second target: $24.00 - $26.50
Stop Loss: Just below $10.00 (daily close)
This setup seeks to capitalize on the support zone for a potential reversal. #AR
AR RoadMap (1D)From where we put the arrow on the chart, it looks like AR has entered a correction.
We can call the bullish pattern A/W wave and consider the wave we are in now as B/X.
It is expected to form the green range of the C/Y wave.
AR support range cannot be optimized and the range is large so control the risk.
The targets are clear on the chart.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
AR Long Spot Trade (Low Volatility Expansion)Market Context: AR is holding above a critical level with low volatility, suggesting a potential expansion soon. This offers a good entry opportunity.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Around $18
Take Profit:
First target: $24
Second target: $30
Stop Loss: Below $16.5
This trade is positioned for potential breakout and expansion. #AR #Crypto #Trading #Volatility
AR Long Position (Support Consolidation)Market Context: AR is consolidating at a major support zone, offering a good risk-to-reward opportunity for a long position as it holds these levels.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Between $17.50 - $19.50.
Take Profit:
First target: $24.00 - $26.60
Second target: $32.00 - $35.00
Stop Loss: Just below $16.50.
This trade focuses on the potential for a bounce from key support, with defined risk and reward levels. #AR #Altcoins #Crypto
AR Long Spot Position (Support Entry)Market Context: AR has retraced to a significant area of support between $18.00 and $20.00, creating a favorable opportunity for a long trade. This setup looks promising if the support holds.
Trade Setup:
Entry: In the current $18.00 - $20.00 area of support.
Take Profit:
First target: $24.00 - $26.50
Second target: $32.00 - $35.00
Stop Loss: Around $16.00.
This trade aims to capitalize on the bounce from support, providing a structured risk-reward profile. #AR #SupportTrade
ARUSDT Shows Potential for Rally!ARUSDT technical analysis update
AR's price is breaking the falling wedge resistance on the daily chart after 200 days of formation and is about to cross above the 100 EMA. Once the breakout is confirmed on the daily chart, we can expect a strong bullish rally in AR
Regards
Hexa
AR Long Spot Position (Breakout Retest)Market Context: AR is showing strength at current levels after a proper breakout, now retesting the broken resistance. With AI performing well, this presents a high-conviction trade opportunity.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Enter a trade around $22.5.
Take Profit:
First target: $28
Second target: $35
Stop Loss: Below $20
⚡ The breakout and retest setup indicates strong bullish potential.
#AR #Crypto
Natural Gas Goes Kaboom!Profits have been secured I the Natural gas trade. That being said I still think Nat gas equities can push higher.
On the UNG chart we just saw the 20 day MA & 50 Day MA bullishly crossover each other.
Last time this happened Nat gas had a 4-5 day parabolic move.
The bulls must be careful to not push this commodity up too quickly because it makes the pattern less likely to have a continued breakout.
We are still putting in Lower weekly highs, so the next test of the most recent pivot high is going to be crucial.
If the bulls can trigger the weekly inverse head and shoulder pattern there's going to be a great long continuation opportunity. Until we break the pivot high & create a higher high traders must use caution now that we've had a large move occur.
AR, EQT, CPK, LNG are all set to push higher if Nat gas holds these gains.
9/23 Crypto Faces Gloomy October.Overview:
The AMEX:SPY closed higher last week, but Thursday’s candlestick pattern resembles a bearish abandoned baby. What’s more concerning is the weekly chart showing a bearish MACD divergence—while the price keeps hitting all-time highs, both the MACD and signal lines are trending lower. Has this divergence played out already, as seen in the first week of August, or is it still ahead of us?
You may have noticed that we only have two more rate cuts left for the year. Why not three, with three months remaining? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets only eight times a year. There’s no meeting in October to give time for economic analysis and to avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations. Conveniently (for bears), September and October are typically weak months for markets. Remember, FTX collapsed in November 2022, bottoming out the crypto market in November-December.
The next FOMC rate cut is expected on November 7th, leaving BINANCE:BTCUSD bulls on their own for the next 44 days. However, this cut is not guaranteed. If inflation remains high or increases, the cut could be postponed. Rate cuts are a quantitative easing tool used to support a slowing economy—not one that’s running at full speed. This Friday, the FED will release the PCE index, which could influence their decision. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 55.2% chance of a one-basis-point cut and a 44.8% chance of a two-basis-point cut.
In recent letters, we suggested a price increase in late September. Now might be the time to take some profits and wait to see if we can break resistance and establish a new bull trend, or if this is the peak before a downturn.
Weekly:
BTC closed the week with a strong green candle, slightly above the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) but still below the highs of late August. The trend remains bearish.
Daily:
We’re overdue for a correction back to the BB MA, with targets at $61.4k and $60k. The price is hovering around the major resistance level of GETTEX:64K , which is also a key monthly level. The last three days have formed three consecutive dojis, indicating market indecision after 15 days of bullish momentum. Breaking this resistance without first testing the $61.4k support is unlikely.
4-Hour:
Weekend price action shows BTC reaching its peak between Thursday and Friday night, pulling back by 2.6% before U.S. bulls prevented further losses. Despite pushing higher on Sunday, Asian bears applied pressure again. Bearish divergence between the price peaks and the MACD-signal line suggests a potential downturn.
1-Hour:
At 10:00 a.m. NYC time, BTC posted a big green candle, supported by strong U.S. buying. However, since Monday midnight, the price has been dropping, while the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) line remains green and positive. This indicates that despite strong buying pressure, hidden sell orders are absorbing the demand, suggesting:
Absorption by Sellers: Large sell orders are preventing the price from moving up.
Distribution Phase: Larger market participants may be offloading positions while smaller traders buy, creating an illusion of demand.
Potential Reversal: This could signal a potential reversal if the selling pressure eases.
Altcoins Relative to BTC:
ETH has outperformed BTC, along with NEAR, TAO, APT, AR, RNDR, and AAVE. SUI, BNB, and FTM showed weaker pumps, while SOL appeared the weakest.
Bull Case:
If the Fed’s two-basis-point cut doesn’t lead to higher inflation and jobless claims continue to rise, it could boost speculative assets. Other central banks around the world may follow suit, increasing global M2 money supply.
Bear Case:
Until the next Fed rate cut, there’s little to support BTC’s current price against bearish pressure.
Fear and Greed Index:
Currently at 50.64—neutral sentiment.
Overall, the market remains in a delicate balance, while weekly trend is still bearish.
Natural Gas: Weak Day / Strong WeekNatural gas had a bit of profit taking today and you can't blame the bulls for trimming especially since we did the same.
The Daily chart now needs a couple days of consolidation before another sustainable push.
The weekly chart recaptured the 50 Weekly MA...very good near term sign.
This can now be used as a support level to trade against for very tight stoploss swing traders.
As long as we remain above the breakout neckline we should be likely heading to retest 2.75 & $2.90
Levels below can cause nat gas to fail and fall substantially. Alway remembers the Weekly trend still has Lower highs in place.
9/10. Crypto Recovery or Short Squeeze? Key Data as CPI Looms.Overview:
Over the last two trading days, the VANTAGE:SP500 and NASDAQ:QQQ posted green candles, pulling us back from the bearish abyss we ended up in last week. However, neither has yet surpassed Friday’s opening price.
Many speculate that the U.S. election outcomes could positively affect crypto prices, though we believe that any correlation is weak beyond short-term timeframes. Regardless, today, Harris did a decent job debating Trump. About 15 minutes into the debate, the market reacted by dropping 1.72%.
Monday and Tuesday were relatively uneventful in terms of Fed reports, but tomorrow, we’ll get the CPI and core CPI data. Last month’s inflation rate was 2.9%, and estimates are at 2.6%. If it comes in higher than 2.6%, the market could react negatively. If it meets or falls below expectations, we could see range trading for the next four months until liquidity flows back into the asset markets.
ETF buying has also picked up, breaking a streak of selling.
W: So far, we’re painting a green candle, hovering around the $55.9k weekly level. Tomorrow’s Fed report will likely determine whether we close the week above or below this critical level.
D: In our last report, we noticed a bullish MACD divergence that has now played out. Weekend to Tuesday price action has pushed BTC back into the previous trading range of $55.9k to $58.4k. The lower bound is about to be tested as support. On Monday and Tuesday, the price nearly reached the BB MA and the upper bound of $58.4k. Monday’s green candle resembles a short squeeze, although it’s debatable how many participants are borrowing crypto from brokerages versus shorting regular or perpetual futures, the latter of which doesn’t result in a price spike if the trade goes against the shorts. Bearish to neutral if the weekly level holds.
4h: Currently trading above the BB MA, with the weekly level perfectly aligning with it.
1h: At the lower bound of the BB, Monday’s high and Tuesday’s high are drawing a MACD bearish divergence. Let’s see if this divergence played out during the presidential debate’s red candle or if more is to come tomorrow.
Alts relative to BTC: No significant divergences noted besides 1 project. Read below in opportunities.
Bull Case: Once again, BTC has pushed up, potentially driven by awakened bulls or a short squeeze, returning to its old trading range. September 6th marked the cycle bottom without breaking below the previous August 5th low of $49k. Global liquidity has been climbing for 72 consecutive days. With this and some positive macroeconomic news, BTC could hold between the $52.2k and $55.9k levels, possibly sparking a rally to $80k.
Bear Case: Monday’s spike may not reflect genuine interest in crypto but rather a short squeeze, soon to be crushed by a contracting economy due to high interest rates.
Fear and Greed Index: 45.01, back to neutral.
Prediction: Range trading unless tomorrow’s Fed report throws a wrench into the works.
Opportunities (W, 4h divergences of major alts): One coin that showed weaker price action during the last 4 bullish days is BINANCE:ARUSDT . While the market rallied, AR continued to sell off, signaling that insiders and whales may be keeping selling pressure high. AR still faces a potential 53% decline before it reaches the BTC ETF price level recorded on January 11th.
Sept 6. Start DCA'ing these altsOverview:
The FRED:SP500 is down, NASDAQ:QQQ is down even more, and COINBASE:BTCUSD has dropped. Everything is red! Or wait… BINANCE:SUIUSDT is up! Could this still be the effects of the Grayscale Trust, and how much longer can SUI defy the overall market? Previous Grayscale picks like BINANCE:NEARUSDT and BINANCE:TAOUSDT aren’t performing as well on red days like yesterday.
The Fed reported fewer new jobs added in August—lower than expected, even after multiple revisions. This was also fewer than the job additions in August of the past few years. Quantitative tightening is in full swing! These metrics signal a potential path to a rate cut, but large economies like the U.S. don’t pivot easily, especially not with just a move from 5.50% to 5.25%. Higher unemployment and fewer job openings will likely persist for months, possibly even quarters.
Yet, no federal bailouts? No major bankruptcies? Meanwhile, commercial real estate is still struggling, with San Francisco’s office vacancy rate rising to 37%, up from 36.7% in Q1 2024.
BTC ETFs are seeing 9 consecutive days of outflows. BINANCE:ETHUSD has seen consistent selling throughout August, except for a slight uptick on August 28th when Blackrock bought slightly above the original Grayscale Trust level.
Believe it or not, this is when whales start dollar-cost averaging (DCA) back into the market. So why is the market falling if big players are buying? These deep pockets unloaded their portfolios and secured profits early in the year when green candles were stacking up. The current selling pressure is from retail traders, as reflected in ETF trends.
If you still have cash (or those precious paychecks), this could be a good time to spread it out into 10-15 weekly buy orders. Don't try to catch the exact bottom—just remember the old adage: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
W: It’s only the first week of a bloody September, and BTC is already nearing the $52.15k weekly level. Sunday might be calm, with a potential bounce back to $55.9k. But watch out for Sunday evening (U.S. Eastern time) when the Asian bears wake up.
D: Friday closed lower than August 5th. This is the third time we’re testing the $52-54k range—July 5, August 5, and now September 6. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. The worrying sign: yesterday’s volume was much lower than the previous two occurrences. No need to look far; volume has been rising over the last 7 days, confirming bearish sentiment.
4h: RSI dipped below 30 at 4 PM Eastern, but since then it’s bounced back 1.5%. Looking back at July 5 and August 5, we can see a key level around $54.4k (though this doesn’t hold on the daily chart). This is the point where decisions must be made.
1h: Price action is moving sideways.
Alts relative to BTC: ETH has dropped more than BTC and other altcoins, falling to levels not seen since January 11th when the BTC ETF was approved. The argument that Layer 2 solutions diminish ETH’s "sound money" status isn’t helping. Bearish. On the bright side, APT has been trading below BTC ETF demand for 91 days and could be a good option for DCA. SUI shrugged off the recent sell-off and posted a 5.13% green candle, making it another solid contender alongside APT, as both are already below BTC ETF price levels.
Bull case: Everyone who could sell has already sold. Now, only the diamond hands remain.
Bear case: The capital allocators have finished realizing gains, and retail traders are finally waking up to the fact that the bull run has been canceled.
Fear and Greed Index: 25.97 – an all-time low for 2024 and 2023.
Prediction: A short-term rebound over the weekend, followed by further declines next week.
Opportunities: Check out weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins. Are you shorting TON yet?
Mistakes: The bullish MACD divergence didn’t play out for BINANCE:SOLUSD , BINANCE:ARUSD , and BINANCE:AVAXUSDT . When big brother (BTC) makes a move, it doesn’t matter what the technical analysis says for altcoins.
Sept 4Overview:
Today marks a mini anniversary—exactly one month since the 15% COINBASE:BTCUSD BTC crash on August 5th, which concluded a 7-day bearish correction. This correction was the third wave in a 28-day cycle. Why does this matter? BTC tends to follow relatively short cycles and typically doesn’t take longer than a month to make a decisive move in either direction. If there’s momentum left, it’s time to pump. If not, we may see a dump.
The Fed reported 7.7 million job openings in July, the lowest level since 2021. This was below the estimated 8.1 million and June’s 7.9 million. Job openings have been declining since March 2022, the month when the Fed first raised rates after cutting them to 0% in response to COVID-19. However, this figure is still higher than the peak of 7.6 million in November 2018. The Fed's goal isn’t to reach the same numbers as in 2018, but if we apply the growth in the U.S. economy since then, 7.6 million jobs in 2018 would be equivalent to 8.46 million in early 2024. Hence, discussions of an interest rate cut on September 18th are gaining momentum.
On Wednesday, the VANTAGE:SP500 and NASDAQ:QQQ both opened and closed lower than the previous day, though they posted green candles. Despite this, their relation to the previous day is bearish. So far, this September is shaping up to be like others—Labor Day weekend is over, professionals are back at their desks, and business cycles are picking up (the last three trading days have shown higher volume since August 9th).
As we mentioned yesterday, BTC’s new trading range is between $55.8k and $58.4k. It touched the lower bound of $55.8k at 9 PM NYC time and then climbed to $58.5k 15 hours later but has been sliding down since.
BTC ETF flows have been negative for the last 7 days, despite occasional daily green candles. At Evgen Capital, we believe ETFs represent a less crypto-enthusiastic crowd, akin to the shoe shiner who once gave stock tips to John Rockefeller—prompting him to sell. As with the Fear and Greed Index that we quote regularly, one should move in the opposite direction of ETF flows. If they are negative for an extended period, it’s time to start buying. If they’re posting all-time highs, it’s time to sell.
W: Up until today, it was a green weekly candle, but it has now turned into a red doji. Can it hold the $55.9k level? We don’t see many reasons for a quick dump, so BTC might remain in this range for another week. Big volatility is expected next week ahead of the September 18th rate cuts. Neutral.
D: RSI is at 41. The last time it was here was August 15th, which preceded a 15% pump over 10 days, trapping the bulls. Bullish to neutral.
4h: Neutral.
1h: At the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands with a low RSI. Neutral to bullish.
Alts relative to BTC: No divergences or major breakouts.
Bull case: There is still time before the historically bearish October to push BTC up to 60k. ETFs are showing signs of capitulation, with 7 consecutive days of sell-offs.
Bear case: There’s a lack of enthusiasm toward crypto, and negative news, like the SEC sending subpoenas to COINBASE:UNIUSD investors, continues to emerge.
Fear and Greed Index: 34. No change.
Prediction: For the rest of the week, BTC will likely retest the $55.9k level. If strong volume and buying power come in, bulls might be able to push through.
Opportunities: Weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins. COINBASE:SOLUSD , BINANCE:ARUSD , and COINBASE:AVAXUSD show bullish MACD divergence. Even though BTC has been sliding lower, these altcoins reached their lows a few days ago, when we reported BTC-to-alts divergence. This is the time to decide which side to take and to set stop-limit orders.
Sept 3Overview:
As we wrote on Sept 1st: "Tuesday brings a wave of bears." It's been a strong start to the week for bears. The VANTAGE:SP500 is down 2.12%, pushing aside hopes for new all-time highs and forming a pattern resembling a double top. The riskier NASDAQ:QQQ dropped even more, correcting 3.04%, further confirming bearish sentiment. Both of these corrections were preceded by their respective futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! and CME_MINI:NQ1! ) crashing 5 hours before the market opened, wiping out Friday's gains. Immediately after the stock market fell, BTC followed. We are now below the critical $58.4k weekly level, which had been tested many times. BTC even touched and bounced perfectly from the next weekly level of $55.8k. The new trading range is $55.8k - $58.4k.
We conclude that this price action is likely due to insiders dumping assets or securing profits ahead of the Fed’s jobs report scheduled for Wednesday. One issue with the new $55.8k level is that it isn’t as strong as the previous level since it hasn't been tested as much. It's also away from the point of control (based on the volume profile) on all timeframes (1h, 4h, W), meaning it's not where the whales are trading. We likely won’t stay at this level for long.
Global liquidity has resumed its upward climb after an 8-day decline, which perfectly mirrored the last BTC bull trap (yellow line on our chart).
W: The week opened lower than the August 5th closing. Bearish.
D: Played out as expected, hitting the BB MA at $59.8k on Monday, then dropping to the lower band at $55.5k. After bouncing off the lower support band, the price should naturally return to $58.4k to establish it as resistance before continuing the downtrend.
4h: At the lower band. RSI is close to 20 and hasn't crossed the 50 mark in the last 7 days. Bullish, unless Wednesday's Fed report knocks out the markets completely.
1h: What is less visible on the 4h chart is clearer on the 1h chart. A bullish MACD divergence is forming, and RSI is below 80. Target: $58.4k.
Alts relative to BTC: COINBASE:ETHUSD , COINBASE:SOLUSD , and BINANCE:TONUSDT have declined lower than the August 4th closing. COINBASE:NEARUSD and BINANCE:ARUSDT haven’t yet, but they’re not far off. Bullish whales are keeping COINBASE:SUIUSD afloat despite strong headwinds.
Bull case: All macroeconomic data has already been priced in, and we are at the bottom of the market. Whales have likely finished taking profits and will stop selling to retail traders, easing selling pressure. When the market looks this bearish, that's often when it pulls an "UNO Reverse" and starts pumping to new highs. We need to see full capitulation, like on August 5th, to target at least a short-term rebound.
Bear case: Continuous confirmation of bearish sentiment: lower lows, lower highs.
Fear and Greed Index: 34. Congratulations! We are officially in the fear zone. Historically, buying at this level tends to be profitable. If you start diligently DCAing while in Fear territory, you won't go broke.
Prediction: BTC will likely spike up short-term to either the BB MA or the upper band, followed by a continuation of the downtrend.
Opportunities: Weekly and 4h divergences in major altcoins: COINBASE:SUIUSD couldn’t hold its weekly level, which has now become resistance. BINANCE:TONUSDT next target is $2.48 (-46.5%). BINANCE:ARUSDT next target is $10.8 (-50%). COINBASE:SOLUSD and BINANCE:NEARUSDT both show 4h MACD divergence and are both at weekly levels. If BTC can trade sideways for 5-7 days, there are bullish opportunities in these two coins.
Natural Gas waking up? Nat gas showed some poise today.
Holding green in a red market where most commodities saw negative price action.
This is impressive to see because Nat gas has a long historical trend of diverging from many commodities.
The price action today also saw a red to green reversal further emphasizing the positive potential trend shift.
Nat gas stocks were discounted today despite the stronger price action in the commodity.
We remain bullish and long UNG, our call positions in the money.