Canadian Forex Analysislooking at the daily chart of the canadian futures index (D61!) price is at daily supply so any shorts would be counter trend based on the index chart but maybe not on the pairs.
D61!
USDCAD: Large corrective structure - down then upThis pair has been trapped within a large complex correction between 1.38 and 1.20.
This move down started for the top could breakdown support soon to pass all the way down into 1.20 area to tag former valley.
Then another seesaw move before the final drop occurs.
Canadian Dollar: Trade for Bearish Continuation I have a conditional order placed - if a new high is made before then I will wait for the next set-up.
Canadian dollar completing ABCD at confluence resistance $6C_FTriangle next? A close >0.8260 can see 0.85-.0850 $USDCAD
Canadian Dollar: Potential Bullish Butterfly at 50% RetracementI am looking for a buy in the PRZ shown based on the bullish Butterfly pattern as well as 50% retracement level.
From an Elliot Wave perspective, if the move up from the recent bottom was all a first wave then this is the minimum retracement I would expect for the second wave. In this case we are getting ready for Wave 3 which would likely be pretty amazing.
This was also previously a supply zone which now could be turned to demand, if you believe that sort of thing (I am not too sure about it myself).
My stop loss for the butterfly is below the 1.414 extension, shown by the red horizontal ray. However if I am stopped out I will likely still look for chances to long from lower, perhaps based on a larger bullish pattern, unless there is a strong move down before then.
This will be a continuation of my previous CAD trade which I have linked below. I will be looking to employ the same strategy as in that idea once price reaches the PRZ, and still optimistic that bull flag will break up someday!
Canadian Dollar Futures: FlagI know it is not advisable to try and pick a bottom..I have learned this lesson many times. However when I noticed today price had dipped below the .618...Daily RSI was in oversold territory... and it made a pinbar on the 5 minute chart with decent volume...I decided to take a shot. But I am going to try a different approach to catching a bottom this time.
My plan is to try to long from this .618 area when I see a bullish candle/pinbar on the low time frames with my stop below that candle. I will move the stops to breakeven/cover costs after I am up some pips.
This might not be a great plan, but I see it as a way to potentially catch a large move without using a large stop loss which might get spiked out anyway. If the Canadian Dollar is going to start a large move up anytime soon, then I might just get lucky enough to get in with the small risk and hold on for the longer term move.
I believe this idea is also in accordance with a quote I have recently found by Paul Tudor Jones:
“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.”
I am not saying he means exactly what I am trying here but...I think it fits the overall strategy for this trade.
I am happy to hear (read) any comments on this idea or strategy. Wish me luck!
P.S. A big thank you to @MaryJane for her educational posts on the 1-2-3 Trading Strategy and the Flag Pattern (linked below), both of which have helped me with my trading and analyses!
USD/CAD on the Light blue train 21OCT2 weeks ago I sold the 0.715 PUT in /6C ( D61! ). I was looking for it to range back down and initially it did but never hit my target profit (2 ticks away). Since then it's run away from me a bit and followed the Light blue line just like TRON taking the Light train to the exit.
As the Canadian dollar is a proxy for Crude oil also CL1! I'm looking for Crude to move up to help the Canadian dollar to move up.
