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Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JULY 21, 2023Tech Titans' Earnings Fall Short as Dow Soars: Anticipation Builds for Fed's Rate Hike and Key Economic Data Key News: UK - Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) Canada - Retail Sales (MoM) (May) Thursday was a day of divergent fortunes in the market's theater. The mighty S&P 500 and Nasdaq, usually riding high, stumbled and fell, their spirits dampened by the less-than-stellar quarterly performances of two iconic players, Tesla and Netflix. The stage seemed shrouded in uncertainty as investors watched with bated breath, wondering what lies ahead for these titans. NASDAQ indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart Tesla's once-soaring shares took a drastic nosedive, plunging by a staggering 9.20% in a single day—a remarkable tumble not witnessed since April 20. The catalyst for this sharp decline came as the electric-vehicle giant reported a distressing drop in its second-quarter gross margins, hitting a four-year low. Such grim tidings sent shockwaves through the market, leaving investors on edge and questioning the road ahead for the iconic company. Adding fuel to the fire of uncertainty, CEO Elon Musk dropped subtle hints about potential price cuts. These mere suggestions reverberated through the minds of shareholders like an ominous echo, further fueling the already prevailing negative sentiment surrounding the stock. In the realm of Tesla's fortunes, this tumultuous day served as a stark reminder of the company's vulnerability to market forces. The road ahead seems uncertain, and the once-invincible aura surrounding the electric-vehicle pioneer has shown signs of faltering. The stage is set for a gripping saga of financial maneuvers and strategic decisions, and only time will reveal how this drama unfolds. Tesla stock daily chart In the world of streaming giants, Netflix faced a significant setback as its stock slumped by a considerable 8.24%, experiencing its most substantial daily percentage drop since December 2022. The culprit behind this downturn was the company's disappointing quarterly revenue, which fell short of investors' estimates. The news sent shockwaves through the market, causing a wave of negative reactions from shareholders and casting a shadow of doubt over the future prospects of the streaming video powerhouse. Amidst the turmoil in the streaming industry, the dollar index showcased its resilience, remaining strong and resolute. Once again, it boldly approached the psychological barrier of 100, a level that had previously proven elusive during a previous attempt on Wednesday. The index's tenacity and determination have captured the attention of market participants, eager to decipher its implications for the global economic landscape. As these parallel narratives unfold in the realm of finance, uncertainty reigns supreme. Netflix grapples with challenges in an ever-competitive streaming market, while the dollar index stands tall, an indicator of broader economic forces at play. Investors and observers brace themselves for what lies ahead, as the stage is set for a thrilling and unpredictable act in the grand theater of global markets. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart In the ever-shifting landscape of global markets, the dollar index faced a challenging phase, enduring a 2.9% decline over the past fortnight. This decline was triggered, in part, by cooler-than-expected US inflation data and speculations about the Federal Reserve potentially concluding its tightening cycle sooner than previously anticipated. However, the index began to regain its lost momentum, showing signs of recovery. Wednesday proved to be a pivotal day, as the index emerged from a period of narrow consolidation. During this phase, a notable triple-Doji pattern manifested, revealing a sense of indecision lingering in the market. This pattern underscored the cautious sentiment among investors, who keenly observed economic indicators and the possibility of shifts in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy—two critical factors that could significantly sway the direction of the dollar index. Meanwhile, the gold market danced to a different tune on Friday, with prices witnessing an upswing. The yellow metal was on track for a positive week, primarily driven by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve might be nearing the conclusion of its rate hike cycle. Such expectations breathed life into gold's allure as a safe-haven asset, attracting investors seeking stability amidst the fluidity of the financial landscape. As financial actors around the world analyze the rhythm of economic indicators and central bank policies, the stage is set for a captivating performance in the intricate theater of currencies and commodities. The plot thickens, and the audience of investors eagerly awaits the next act, where every move and decision can shape the course of these intricate dramas. XAU/USD daily chart The gold market has been on an upward trajectory, marking the third consecutive week of gains for bullion prices. Notably, they have found stability in the high $1,900s range, largely due to the prevailing perception that there will be fewer US interest rate hikes for the remainder of the year. Investors in the gold market are carefully attuned to the future path of interest rates, a crucial aspect determined by the Federal Reserve's decisions, and closely monitor fluctuations in the US dollar's value. These two factors hold immense sway over gold prices, and any indications or clues from the Federal Reserve regarding its monetary policy stance are watched with great interest. During the past five trading days, the New Zealand dollar has faced significant headwinds, emerging as the weakest performer among the G10 currencies. Its downward trajectory against the US dollar continued yesterday, further fueling the greenback's broad rebound. The release of New Zealand inflation data hinted that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might maintain interest rates and might have already completed its tightening cycle. This development has strengthened the US dollar against the New Zealand dollar and has influenced the broader sentiment in currency markets. AUD/USD daily chart The upcoming week looms large with significant events, particularly in the technology sector. Major tech companies, including Microsoft, are gearing up to release their reports. These industry giants have witnessed remarkable stock growth this year, driven by optimistic expectations surrounding artificial intelligence and its potential for explosive expansion. Analysts eagerly await further details on these companies' AI plans and how they will impact earnings, as this information can sway market sentiments. The second quarter reporting season for banks will come to a close, with regional players like Comerica and Regions providing their updates. The banking sector has enjoyed the benefits of rising interest rates, enabling them to generate more revenue from loans. However, larger banks with Wall Street-focused businesses faced challenges due to a decline in deal-making activities, which affected their overall revenue. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports to gauge the sector's performance and outlook. The Federal Reserve's decisions remain under the spotlight, as the central bank is scheduled to convene to determine interest rates once again. The general expectation is that rates will be raised by a quarter of a percentage point. All eyes will be on Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday afternoon, as investors seek additional hints about the Fed's future course and potential impacts on the financial landscape. Furthermore, key economic reports will be unveiled following the interest rate decision. These include the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) reading and the latest update on the personal consumption expenditures index—an essential measure of inflation. Investors and policymakers will closely scrutinize these reports as they hold vital clues about the health of the economy and its trajectory. As the curtain rises on the upcoming week, the stage is set for a flurry of events that will shape the narrative of global markets. Each piece of information unveiled in this dynamic performance will have far-reaching implications, captivating investors and stakeholders alike in the ever-evolving theater of finance.
by FOREXN1
7
Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY JULY 19, 2023Greetings, traders! Welcome back to our daily Market Analysis. Today, we have gathered the top news and interesting fundamental analysis for your consideration. Let's dive in and stay informed! Key News: UK - CPI (YoY) (Jun) Eurozone - CPI (YoY) (Jun) USA - Building Permits (Jun) USA - Crude Oil Inventories Market Sentiment Boosted by Strong Earnings and Economic Data, Gold Prices Soar to Six-Week High Tuesday's trading session brought a wave of optimism among investors, with the S&P 500 surging to new heights, thanks to impressive quarterly results from prominent Wall Street banks and other major corporations. The S&P 500 index demonstrated significant strength, recording a notable 0.8% increase, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw an even more remarkable surge of 1%, adding a substantial 359 points to the index. The Nasdaq also showcased its resilience, posting a solid 0.9% upward movement. Moreover, in response to the prevailing positive sentiment, gold prices experienced a surge, reaching a near six-week high. Investors appear to be reacting favorably to the combination of strong corporate earnings and encouraging economic data, fueling the upward momentum across various sectors in the market. NASDAQ indices daily chart Dow Jones indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart Bank of America Corp (BAC) emerged as a standout performer, driving a surge in banking stocks with an impressive rise of over 4%. The bank's second-quarter earnings exceeded analyst estimates, mainly attributed to the significant boost in loan income due to higher interest rates. This strong performance has solidified Bank of America's position as a key player in the financial sector and has garnered positive attention from investors. Bank of America stock daily chart Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Shines with Impressive Q2 Results Morgan Stanley (MS) proved to be another success story, witnessing a remarkable rally of 5% after reporting second-quarter results that surpassed estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The strong performance of its wealth management business effectively balanced out the trading business's weakness, which experienced a decline in equity and fixed-income revenue. This outstanding performance has garnered positive attention from investors and reinforces Morgan Stanley's position as a top-performing financial institution. Morgan Stanley stock H4 chart Tuesday's stock market session witnessed a slight downturn, influenced by US retail sales data that caused initial volatility but eventually settled. The June retail sales figures were notably weaker than expected, creating some concern, but the impact was partially offset by the revision of May's numbers, resulting in a mixed market sentiment. In response to a slowdown in consumer and producer price gains in June, the dollar experienced a significant decline. The market remains cautious as investors analyze the economic indicators to gauge the direction of future trends. US Retail Sales The recent developments in the US economy have led to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will put a halt to its rate hikes after the anticipated 25 basis-point increase at the July 25-26 meeting. Fed funds futures traders are projecting an additional 33 basis points of tightening later in the year, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November. On Tuesday, data revealed an unexpected drop in production at US factories in June. However, the second quarter showed a rebound, especially in motor vehicle output, which accelerated after two consecutive quarterly declines. Traders are now closely monitoring inflation releases from various regions, including the eurozone, Britain, and Japan, to gain further insights into whether inflation is cooling globally. These indicators will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and monetary policy expectations moving forward. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart As a result of the recent economic developments, the dollar index showed some volatility, last up 0.04% on the day at 99.924. However, it had previously fallen to 99.549, marking the lowest level since April 2022. These fluctuations indicate the significant impact of the latest data on the dollar's performance in the foreign exchange market. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar managed to gain 0.10%, reaching 138.83. This recovery came after the drop to 137.245 experienced on the previous Friday, which was the lowest level since May 17. The currency's rebound against the yen reflects the influence of the evolving economic landscape on currency pair movements. As traders continue to assess economic indicators and central bank policies, the dollar's performance is likely to remain subject to fluctuations in the forex market. Investors are closely monitoring data releases and inflation figures from major economies to determine potential shifts in monetary policies and overall market sentiment. USD/JPY daily chart Euro Holds Steady Amid ECB's Caution on Inflation On the flip side, the euro maintained its stability, trading at $1.1229, following an earlier climb to $1.1276, reaching its highest level since February 2022. European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot's comments on Tuesday revealed the bank's vigilant approach towards inflation. Knot emphasized that the ECB would closely observe any indications of inflation cooling down in the coming months, ensuring a cautious stance on implementing rate hikes. This cautious approach from the ECB contributed to the euro's steady performance in the foreign exchange market. With investors closely monitoring central bank communication and economic indicators, the euro's movements are subject to shifts in market sentiment and policy expectations. As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, market participants will continue to assess data releases and central bank statements to gauge the euro's direction in the forex market. EUR/USD daily chart Market expectations are leaning towards the European Central Bank (ECB) implementing a 25 basis points interest rate increase in the upcoming week. On the other hand, the British pound experienced a marginal decline of 0.22%, settling at $1.3046 after reaching $1.3144 on Thursday, which marked the currency's highest level since April 2022. This volatility in the pound's performance reflects the market's sensitivity to economic indicators and interest rate expectations. These currency fluctuations underscore the significant impact of various factors on the global foreign exchange market. Traders and investors closely monitor inflation concerns and central bank communications, as these elements play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and currency movements. As the economic landscape continues to evolve, market participants will continue to assess data releases and policy signals to navigate the currency market's changing dynamics. GBP/USD daily chart The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is currently engaged in a balanced debate among policymakers, evaluating the effectiveness of existing restrictive measures and considering potential future actions. The central question revolves around the appropriateness of the current conditions and whether additional measures could yield positive or negative outcomes. Although the market is confident in the likelihood of another rate hike by the RBA this year, the exact timing remains uncertain. As demonstrated throughout this year, expectations can shift rapidly, making it challenging for investors to predict future developments with certainty. In the realm of precious metals, gold prices are once again exhibiting a gradual upward trend after experiencing a brief pullback in recent sessions. Initially facing resistance near $1,960, the price underwent a minor retracement but found support around $1,940. The ongoing support from lower yields and a weakened dollar continues to significantly contribute to gold's positive performance, as evidenced by the market movements observed yesterday. Investors are closely monitoring these factors as they continue to impact the precious metal's trajectory in the market. XAU/USD daily chart In response to the recent developments, gold has surged past the significant $1,960 threshold, attaining a nearly six-week high. Yields and the dollar have displayed fluctuations subsequent to the retail sales data release, influencing gold's performance in turn. Nevertheless, the market has not yet exhibited a clear and definitive direction for the precious metal. The crucial factor to observe now is whether gold can maintain its position above the critical $1,960 level, which it is currently approaching for testing. A successful hold above this mark could be interpreted as a bullish confirmation signal. In such a scenario, the next potential challenge for gold's price might be reaching the $1,980 level. Investors are closely monitoring these price movements and are poised to respond to any further signals indicating the precious metal's trajectory.
by FOREXN1
10
Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY JULY 12, 2023Greetings, traders! Welcome back to our daily Market Analysis. Today, we have gathered the top news and interesting fundamental analysis for your consideration. Let's dive in and stay informed! Key events: New Zealand - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision USA - Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) USA - CPI (YoY) (Jun) USA - CPI (MoM) (Jun) Canada - BoC Interest Rate Decision USA - Crude Oil Inventories The energy and large technology sectors were the primary contributors to Tuesday's gains in the stock market, while investors awaited the forthcoming inflation reports with bated breath. The rise in value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 317 points, or 0.9%, while the rise in value of the S&P 500 was 0.7% and the rise in value of the Nasdaq was 0.6%. DJI indice daily chart SPX500 indice daily chart As a result of an improved demand outlook, oil prices skyrocketed, which provided a boost to the energy sector. There is a growing expectation that the oil market will tighten in the second half of this year. This expectation is supported by falling crude production as well as Saudi Arabia's commitment to cutting output by one million barrels per day beginning in July. The sentiment surrounding energy stocks was further buoyed by reports of potential stimulus measures in China, which is the largest importer of energy in the world. The stock of 3M Company (NYSE: MMM), which was upgraded by Bank of America to Neutral from Underperform, increased by almost 5% as a result of the upgrade. It is anticipated that the manufacturer of industrial and consumer products will benefit from the conclusion of legal issues, which is anticipated to enhance the performance of the company. A settlement agreement was reached between 3M and the government last month to resolve allegations that the company contaminated public water systems with PFAS, which are also known as forever chemicals. MMM stock daily chart After receiving an upgrade from Hold to Buy from Jefferies, JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) led the banking sector higher just as earnings season was about to begin on Friday. As justifications for the upgrade, Jefferies pointed to the robustness of JPMorgan's balance sheet as well as the company's potential for earnings. Gains were also seen by regional banks, which have come under increased scrutiny ever since the banking crisis that began earlier this year. After Bank of America reaffirmed its recommendation to buy the company's stock, US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) saw its share price rise by more than 3.5%. US Bancorp is well-prepared to handle sector headwinds, according to Bank of America, and is expected to achieve superior earnings growth and stock performance, according to the statement. JPM stock daily chart Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), which benefited from its two-day prime day sales event, stood out as one of the few stocks in the technology sector that was trading in the positive territory. During this time, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) struggled to make gains, despite the growing optimism surrounding the impending acquisition of Activision by Microsoft for $69 billion. Activision is the company that makes the Call of Duty video game. The attempt by US regulators to temporarily block the deal due to antitrust concerns was rejected by a federal judge in a ruling earlier today. The forthcoming publication of US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data has become the sole focal point of attention for stock futures trading in both the United States and Europe. The majority of speculators are expected to be surprised by the US inflation data, which analysts strongly anticipate will exceed their expectations. AMAZON stock daily chart The change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States is expected to be 0.3% month-over-month (m/m), while the change in the CPI year-over-year (y/y), which is the most significant change, is expected to be 3.1%, compared to the previous reading of 4.0%. If the actual number comes close to or matches the forecasted 3.1%, it will be seen as positive news for the market because the inflation target set by the Federal Reserve is 2%. On the other hand, market participants are likely to rejoice if the reading falls below 3.1% because this indicates a significant shift in the trend of inflation. Nevertheless, it is essential to pay close attention to the trajectory that the reading of inflation will take in the future. Although the data that are released today will show a significant drop, which will be driven by tighter monetary policy, an economic slowdown, and lower oil prices, these factors will have less of an influence on the inflation number going forward. As a consequence of this, the gap between the Fed's target and the actual reading might not expand by an additional factor of two from its previous magnitude. GOLD daily chart It is anticipated that the price of gold will be volatile throughout the course of the day. Even though the support level at $1,900 is strong, it may be put to a significant test if the inflation data continues to show no signs of easing. Gold prices would be supported by a sizeable decline in the reading of inflation, which could potentially lead to an attempt to test the $1,950 level. On the other hand, if the reading indicates that inflationary pressures will continue for some time, the price of gold may go up even further. As a result, there is a greater chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, potentially on more than one occasion.
by FOREXN1
14
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 03, 2023Key News: USA - Independence Day - Early close at 13:00 UK - Manufacturing PMI (Jun) USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Friday marked a momentous day on Wall Street as the three major indices experienced a robust surge, igniting a wave of optimism among investors. Notably, the Nasdaq, renowned for its focus on technology stocks, achieved an extraordinary feat by posting its largest first-half gain in the past 40 years. This remarkable milestone underscored the resiliency and strength of the technology sector, which has been a driving force behind the market's upward trajectory. Adding to the positive sentiment was the phenomenal achievement of tech giant Apple, as it soared to a market valuation of $3 trillion. This significant milestone was a testament to the company's enduring appeal and relentless pursuit of innovation. Not since January 2022 had Apple reached such heights, and this remarkable accomplishment further solidified its position as one of the most influential and valuable companies in the world. Apple's stock performance on Friday was nothing short of impressive. Closing at $193.97, it recorded a notable increase of 2.3%, with the stock even reaching a new all-time high of $194.48. This surge in Apple's stock price was fueled by a combination of factors, including the growing investor enthusiasm for growth stocks and the unwavering confidence in Apple's ability to conquer new markets. Investors' renewed faith in growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, has been a driving force behind the recent market surge. The allure of exponential growth potential and groundbreaking innovations has captivated market participants, leading to increased allocations in companies like Apple. Moreover, Apple's unwavering commitment to excellence and its track record of success have bolstered investor confidence, making it an attractive choice for many. Apple's ability to penetrate and thrive in new markets has further fueled investor optimism. The company's forays into various sectors, such as healthcare, augmented reality, and autonomous vehicles, have been met with great anticipation. Investors believe that Apple's strong brand, vast resources, and exceptional product ecosystem position it favorably to succeed in these emerging industries. This confidence in Apple's long-term prospects has propelled its stock to new heights. As the market continues to evolve and navigate through various challenges, the impressive performance of the Nasdaq and Apple serves as a beacon of hope and optimism. Their achievements not only symbolize the resilience of the technology sector but also provide a glimmer of possibility for future growth and innovation. Investors are closely watching these developments, eager to capitalize on the momentum and potential opportunities that lie ahead in the ever-evolving world of technology. Apple stock daily chart On the last day of the second quarter, investors displayed a heightened level of interest, primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's closely observed indicators, which pointed to a moderation in US inflation. According to a report released by the Commerce Department, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed a 3.8% increase, lower than the 4.3% figure recorded in April. When excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, the core PCE index saw a growth of 0.3%, slightly lower than the previous month's 0.4% rise. BEA, US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index The release of this data has instilled optimism among investors, raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve's cycle of raising interest rates could be approaching its conclusion. The decrease in Treasury yields, which was triggered by the alleviation of inflationary pressures, has played a role in fostering this positive market sentiment. Burns McKinney, a portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group in Dallas, Texas, emphasized the impact of declining yields on the overall market conditions. In terms of performance, the Nasdaq index delivered its strongest first-half showing in four decades, delivering a remarkable gain of over 31%. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 index, comprising prominent technology stocks, achieved its highest first-half gain on record, surging by approximately 39%. On Friday, the S&P 500's growth index experienced a rise of 1.4%. Alongside Apple, other popular stocks favored by investors, including Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, significantly contributed to the positive performance of the S&P 500. These stocks registered gains ranging from 1.6% to 3.6%, capitalizing on their impressive rallies propelled by strong earnings and the increasing interest in artificial intelligence. S&P 500 indice daily chart NASDAQ indice daily chart As we embark on the first full week of July, there are several noteworthy events lined up on the economic calendar. One such event is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision, scheduled for Tuesday at 5:30 am GMT+1. This decision holds significant interest as market participants eagerly await to see whether the central bank will increase its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bp) to 4.35% or maintain the status quo. The RBA's rate decisions have been closely monitored, particularly due to the surprise 25bp rate hikes in the previous two meetings. The most recent monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data revealed a 5.6% increase in the twelve months leading up to May. Although this figure is lower than April's 6.8% and market expectations of 6.1%, it still plays a role in shaping the RBA's decision-making process. Additionally, strong employment data and uncertainties surrounding China's economic recovery have contributed to a 63% probability of the RBA keeping rates unchanged this week. Market participants will be closely watching the outcome of the RBA rate decision as it has the potential to impact not only the Australian economy but also global market sentiments. Australia interest rate In the United States, the upcoming releases of the ISM Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will draw considerable attention. The Services PMI has been indicating contractionary conditions for several months, and the release scheduled for Monday at 3:00 pm GMT+1 is expected to continue this trend. Forecasts suggest a range between 48.3 and 46.7 for the Services PMI. On Thursday at 3:00 pm GMT+1, the ISM Services PMI will be released, which has remained in expansionary territory but experienced a decline from 51.9 in April to 50.3 in May. The median expectation for June's release is 51.0. It is worth noting that the past three months have exhibited a range between 52.0 and 50.0 in the Services PMI readings. These PMI releases provide valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing and services sectors in the US. Market participants will be closely monitoring these indicators as they can influence market sentiment and provide indications of economic trends and business activity levels. US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) One of the most highly anticipated data releases in the United States this week will be related to the labor market indicators. On a day preceding the non-farm payroll report for June, both the ADP non-farm employment change and JOLTS job openings data will be published at 1:30 pm GMT+1. Market participants will closely watch these indicators as they provide crucial insights into the state of the labor market. They serve as important precursors to the official non-farm payroll report, which is scheduled for release on Friday. The median consensus among analysts is for an addition of 225,000 new payrolls in June, which marks a decrease from the robust figure of 339,000 recorded in May. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings are projected to match the previous month's value of 0.3%. It is worth noting that a strong jobs report for June would increase the likelihood of a rate hike later in the month. These labor market indicators are closely monitored as they provide valuable insights into the overall health of the US economy, the pace of job creation, and potential wage growth. The data can significantly impact market sentiment and influence monetary policy decisions. US Unemployment rate In its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the Federal Funds target rate at its existing level. However, the committee signaled a hawkish stance, indicating a potentially more aggressive approach to monetary policy. This was reflected in the FOMC's dot plot, which outlines individual policymakers' projections for interest rates. Based on the dot plot from May, the FOMC projected two additional rate increases by the end of 2023. This suggests a tightening monetary policy in the near future. Market participants have taken note of this guidance, and as of now, they are pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for July 26. Following the anticipated rate hike in July, there is speculation that the FOMC may pause its tightening cycle and potentially even consider rate cuts in 2024. However, it's important to note that market expectations and projections can change based on incoming economic data and the evolving policy stance of the Federal Reserve. These market expectations regarding future rate movements are crucial for investors and can significantly impact various asset classes and market sentiment. Traders and market participants closely monitor such probabilities and projections to make informed decisions and position themselves accordingly in the financial markets.
by FOREXN1
10
Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY JUNE 28, 2023US Stocks Rebound As A Result Of Positive Economic Data Key News: USA – Fed Chair Powell Speaks USA – Crude Oil Inventories Tuesday witnessed a notable recovery in US stock indices, signaling a turnaround from a recent string of losses. The resurgence was spurred by positive economic data, easing investor concerns regarding a potential recession triggered by the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, comprising esteemed blue-chip stocks, halted its six-day losing streak on Tuesday. Simultaneously, the Nasdaq Composite, predominantly representing technology-related firms, appeared poised to achieve its strongest first-half performance in forty years. Furthermore, the S&P 500 rebounded after enduring declines in five out of the past six trading sessions. DJI indice daily chart NASDAQ indice daily chart SPX indice daily chart In a surprising turn, recent reports unveiled unforeseen growth in new orders for crucial US-manufactured capital goods in May. Furthermore, the month witnessed a substantial surge in sales of new single-family homes, alongside a nearly 1-1/2 year high in US consumer confidence in June. These encouraging economic indicators provided investors with a compelling incentive to reengage in the stock market, following a significant correction in previous sessions. Mark Luschini, the chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, described the recent correction as a "pretty vicious" one. EUR/USD daily chart Yesterday, the euro demonstrated a robust performance in response to the hawkish stance adopted by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and several other members of the ECB governing council regarding future interest rate increases. This indicates that the central bank has now made a commitment to implement another rate hike in July, with the possibility of a further increase in September. Lagarde has also dismissed the likelihood of a rapid decrease in rates, although her previous reversals on such matters have not been forgotten. A notable example was her statement at the end of 2021, when she declared a low probability of rate hikes in 2022. GBP/USD daily chart The pound has shown a gradual increase in value as traders intensify their expectations for a potential rate hike by the Bank of England. Speculation is mounting that the central bank may consider raising interest rates to a level above 6%, which has sparked renewed interest and confidence in the currency. The market sentiment surrounding the pound has shifted in favor of a more hawkish stance, driven by factors such as improving economic indicators and a belief that the Bank of England may take a proactive approach to control inflationary pressures. As a result, traders are adjusting their positions and positioning themselves to take advantage of a potential rate hike, leading to increased demand for the pound. However, it's important to note that these expectations are based on market speculation, and the actual decision by the Bank of England remains uncertain. USD/JPY daily chart The Japanese yen continues to face significant downward pressure, resulting in a decline against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 144.00. Additionally, the yen has reached an 8-year low against the pound, reflecting the persistent weakness in the currency. The yen's depreciation can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the diverging monetary policies between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, as well as a general risk-on sentiment in the markets, which has led to increased demand for higher-yielding assets. In contrast, the Canadian dollar (CAD) has displayed remarkable strength among G10 currencies over the past month, and it has managed to maintain most of its gains leading up to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today. During the overnight session, the USD/CAD pair reached its lowest level since September 2022, indicating the Canadian dollar's resilience. Although there has been a slight upward correction during European trading, the overall downward trend observed in June remains intact. Market participants are now eagerly awaiting the release of May CPI data in Canada, as it will provide further insights into the country's inflationary pressures. Positive CPI figures could potentially bolster the Canadian dollar further, reaffirming its strength in the forex market. Conversely, weaker-than-expected CPI data may dampen the currency's recent performance. Overall, the Japanese yen faces continued downward pressure, while the Canadian dollar remains strong and closely monitored ahead of the CPI data release, which could have a significant impact on its future trajectory. USD/CAD daily chart According to HSBC economists, there is an expectation of a 0.5% month-on-month increase in price pressures, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.4%. This anticipated rise in inflation is driven by persistent upward pressure on mortgage interest costs and a seasonal uptick in food prices. If the actual price pressures exceed expectations on the upside, it could reinforce the likelihood of a quarter-point interest rate hike at the Bank of Canada's July meeting. Such a move would further bolster the strength of the Canadian dollar due to the impact of higher interest rates. Currently, swap markets are pricing in a 15-basis point increase in rates. However, it is important to note that the year-on-year inflation rates for both headline and core measures are projected to slow down compared to the levels seen in April. This deceleration is attributed to the increasing influence of base effects, where the comparison is made against higher inflation rates from the previous year. In addition to the upcoming inflation data, market participants are also anticipating other economic indicators and events this week. Of particular importance is a crucial inflation indicator, which will provide further insights into the state of inflationary pressures. Furthermore, a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, is expected to shed light on the future direction of interest rates and the monetary policy outlook. These upcoming events and data releases are likely to play a significant role in shaping market expectations regarding interest rates and could have implications for currency movements, including the Canadian dollar. Traders and investors will closely analyze the outcomes and statements to make informed decisions in response to the evolving economic landscape.
by FOREXN1
11
Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JUNE 23, 2023Events: UK - Manufacturing PMI USA - FOMC Member Mester Speaks USA - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks USA - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USA - Services PMI (Jun) During Thursday's trading session, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq displayed upward movement, propelled by the statements made by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell's hawkish stance indicated that the central bank's tightening cycle was not yet complete, instilling confidence in investors. However, he also emphasized the Fed's commitment to exercising caution in its approach to monetary policy. The Nasdaq, known for its heavy concentration of technology stocks, experienced significant gains. This surge in the index was primarily driven by the momentum stocks of prominent companies like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT). These tech giants showcased impressive performance, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the progress of the broader S&P 500 index was more modest compared to the Nasdaq's surge. While still displaying positive movement, the gains in the S&P 500 were not as pronounced as those in the technology-driven Nasdaq. In contrast to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) remained relatively unchanged. The Dow is composed of large, established companies from various sectors, including industrials and financials. However, during this particular trading session, these sectors had a minimal impact on the index's performance. Overall, the market sentiment on Thursday was largely influenced by Powell's statements, which offered a mixed perspective. While indicating a continued tightening of monetary policy, Powell also reassured investors about the Fed's cautious approach. This combination of factors led to varying degrees of upward movement in different indices, with the Nasdaq taking the lead, followed by the S&P 500, while the Dow remained relatively stable. NASDAQ indice daily chart S&P500 indice daily chart DJI indice daily chart During his appearance before the Senate Banking Committee for the semi-annual monetary policy testimony, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his stance on the likelihood of further interest rate hikes in the near future. This statement reaffirmed his belief in the need for continued tightening of monetary policy to address potential inflationary pressures and maintain economic stability. Powell's perspective on future rate hikes was echoed by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman during the session. The alignment of views between Powell and Bowman highlights the consensus within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential necessity of raising interest rates as part of their ongoing efforts to carefully manage the country's economic growth. The reaffirmation of this belief in further rate hikes signals the Fed's commitment to a proactive approach in addressing economic conditions and maintaining a balanced monetary policy. By emphasizing the likelihood of future interest rate increases, Powell and Bowman are providing transparency to market participants and indicating their intention to address inflationary pressures and promote sustainable economic expansion. As the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in shaping financial markets and investor sentiment, the reaffirmation of the potential for rate hikes in the coming months will likely influence market dynamics and investor decision-making. Traders and market participants will closely monitor future statements and actions from the Federal Reserve for further insights into the timing and magnitude of potential interest rate adjustments. US initial jobless claims In the economic landscape, the stability of jobless claims at a 20-month high reflects persistent challenges in the labor market. This indicates ongoing difficulties for job seekers and potential concerns about employment conditions. Additionally, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which tracks various indicators to gauge the future direction of the economy, recorded its 14th consecutive monthly decline. This suggests that the Federal Reserve's efforts to moderate economic growth are starting to have the intended impact of slowing down the overall pace of expansion. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) has made a decision to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes during its 13th meeting under its tightening policy. This move has received mixed reactions from different stakeholders in the financial markets. Households, bond investors, stock investors, and foreign exchange (FX) traders have expressed their disapproval of the BoE's decision. This dissent stems from concerns about the potential impact of higher interest rates on borrowing costs, investment returns, and currency valuations. These stakeholders are closely monitoring the consequences of the BoE's actions and adjusting their strategies accordingly. The BoE's decision to hasten the pace of interest rate hikes highlights their focus on managing inflationary pressures and ensuring economic stability. However, the varied reactions from market participants reflect the complexity and potential trade-offs associated with monetary policy decisions. As the effects of the BoE's actions unfold, it will be crucial to monitor the implications for different sectors of the economy and assess how market dynamics and investor sentiment are influenced by these policy moves. UK interest rate Despite the stabilization of the 2-year gilt yield above the 5% threshold, it failed to receive a substantial boost. This can be attributed to concerns among market participants regarding the potential negative consequences of the Bank of England's (BoE) proposed additional interest rate hike of one full percentage point. These concerns mainly revolve around the potential impact on the British economy, particularly in the property market. The anticipation of such a significant rate increase has dampened investor sentiment, leading to a cautious approach. In parallel, the 10-year gilt yield has experienced a decline in response to the prevailing gloomy economic outlook. This decline reflects market expectations of a challenging economic environment and a lack of optimism regarding future growth prospects. The declining yield suggests that investors are seeking safer assets amid uncertainty, resulting in increased demand for long-term government bonds. The possibility of Britain avoiding a recession, let alone a property crisis, appears increasingly unlikely in light of these developments. The market sentiment is shaped by concerns about the potential adverse effects of higher interest rates on the property market, which is a key sector of the British economy. This sentiment is further fueled by the prevailing economic uncertainties, both domestically and globally. Turning to the FTSE 100, the index has approached the 7500 level. However, trend and momentum indicators are displaying negative signals, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. Additionally, the index is nearing oversold conditions, suggesting that it may be due for a potential rebound or period of consolidation. FTSE 100 daily chart The performance of large British companies has been negatively impacted by falling energy and commodity prices, influenced by a relatively weak reopening in China. This year, these factors have contributed to bearish pressure on the companies, and the situation has been further intensified by rising interest rates. Until there is a rebound in global energy prices, which is yet to materialize, the outlook for the FTSE 100 remains neutral to negative. The market will closely monitor any developments that could potentially improve the prospects for energy prices and subsequently impact the performance of the index. Interestingly, in response to the 50 basis point interest rate hike, the pound depreciated instead of appreciating, contrary to the typical expectation. This reaction reflects the sentiment of the market, which believes that the challenges and uncertainties facing Britain outweigh the potential positive effects that higher interest rates could generate. The prevailing concerns and uncertainties surrounding the British economy have outweighed the impact of the rate hike, leading to a depreciation of the pound. Turning to the gold market, prices experienced a slight decline on Friday, signaling a potentially challenging week and heading towards their worst performance since January. This decline can be attributed to the significant rate hike by the Bank of England, coupled with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. These developments have raised concerns among investors about the prospect of tighter monetary conditions. Market participants will closely monitor any further signals and actions from central banks, as they have a significant influence on gold prices. XAU/USD daily chart Gold prices have reached a three-month low, breaking out of a narrow trading range observed over the past month, but unfortunately in a downward direction. This decline in gold prices indicates a shift in market sentiment and a potential weakening of demand for the precious metal. Looking ahead to Friday's session, investors will closely monitor the release of preliminary manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. These indicators provide valuable insights into the health and performance of these sectors, serving as important economic barometers. The PMI data can influence market sentiment and investor confidence, as it offers a glimpse into the overall economic activity and potential growth prospects. In addition to the PMI data, market participants will also pay attention to speeches from several members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including Bullard, Bostic, and Mester. These speeches have the potential to shed further light on the monetary policy outlook and provide clarity on the Fed's stance and future actions. The comments made by FOMC members can significantly impact market expectations, especially regarding interest rates and overall monetary policy direction. Overall, Friday's session is expected to be influenced by the release of PMI data and the speeches from FOMC members. These events will shape market sentiment and provide crucial insights into the current economic conditions and the potential future trajectory of monetary policy. Investors will closely analyze these developments to make informed decisions and position themselves accordingly in the market.
by FOREXN1
10
Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JUNE 16, 2023Market Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Reach 14-Month Highs, ECB Signals Rate Hike, BoJ Maintains Policy Notable Events: Japan - Bank of Japan (BoJ) Press Conference Eurozone - Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-on-Year (May) USA - Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June) USA - Federal Reserve's Waller Speaks The S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved their highest levels in 14 months on Thursday, driven by encouraging economic data that signaled the US Federal Reserve's approach towards concluding its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes. This development brought great delight to investors, resulting in a significant surge in the stock market. Furthermore, the release of several economic indicators indicating a decline in inflation played a role in lowering Treasury yields. This alleviated concerns surrounding potential future interest rate increases and significantly contributed to the exceptional performance of technology giants such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). S&P500 and Nasdaq indices daily chart Surprising Growth in US Retail Sales in May, While Jobless Claims Steady but Higher than Expected During the month of May, an unexpected growth in US retail sales was observed, indicating a rise in consumer spending across various product categories, including vehicles. Additionally, data concerning jobless claims revealed that for the week ending June 10, the number of claims remained steady at 262,000. However, it is worth noting that this figure exceeded economists' predictions, which had anticipated 249,000 claims. US Retail Sales Decline in Import Prices in May, Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady with Hints of Future Increases, ECB Implements Rate Hike and Concludes Asset Purchase Program In May, import prices experienced a notable decrease, marking the most significant annual decline in three years. This followed an earlier report in the week highlighting lower-than-expected inflation rates in April, further indicating a downward trend in pricing pressures. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates within the range of 5% to 5.25%, opting for no immediate changes. However, they provided hints that interest rates could potentially be raised by at least 0.5% later in the year due to persistent inflationary concerns. In line with expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) conducted its recent meeting, implementing a 25 basis point rate hike. Additionally, the ECB formally announced its decision to conclude reinvestments of assets purchased under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) starting in July. These measures signal the ECB's efforts to adjust monetary policy in response to economic conditions. These developments in import prices, central bank actions, and policy decisions have implications for various sectors of the economy and financial markets. Market participants will closely monitor future inflation trends and central bank actions as they assess the potential impact on investment strategies and economic outlooks. Euro Area interest rate Revised Projections Show Higher Inflation, ECB Signals Possible Rate Hike in July During the recent meeting, notable revisions were made to the staff projections, indicating an upward revision in both underlying and headline inflation throughout the forecast period. Of particular significance was the projection for 2025, with a substantial estimate of 2.2%, surpassing the ECB's target. Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, conveyed a high likelihood of another rate hike taking place in July. However, she refrained from providing specific guidance regarding the future trajectory of interest rates beyond that point, emphasizing the concept of a known destination but an uncertain path. EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Surges Following ECB Meeting, Bullish Outlook as Rate Hike Probability Increases In the aftermath of the ECB meeting, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced a significant surge, primarily driven by the increased implied probability of a rate hike in July. The probability rose from 50% to 80%, prompting a strong response in the market. As a result, the currency pair surpassed its 50-day moving average (DMA) and reached a level of 1.0950, indicating a remarkable increase of over 3% since the beginning of the month. Looking ahead, the medium-term outlook for EUR/USD remains optimistic, largely influenced by the contrasting stances of the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed). With the ECB adopting a notably hawkish stance and the Fed signaling a gradual winding down of its efforts, market sentiment favors the euro. The next target for a bullish movement in EUR/USD is set at 1.12, representing a significant milestone to watch for. As the probability of a July rate hike remains high and the divergence between the ECB and the Fed persists, investors will closely monitor the currency pair's movements in anticipation of further upward momentum. Please note that financial markets are subject to volatility and can be influenced by various factors, so it is advisable to conduct thorough analysis and consider other market indicators when making trading decisions. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart US Dollar Weakens as Multiple Factors Impact its Performance In contrast to the euro's strength, the US dollar has weakened and slipped below its 50-day moving average (DMA). This decline can be attributed to several factors that have negatively affected the currency's performance. Lackluster retail sales, an increase in jobless claims, a slowdown in industrial production, and the potential impact of a stronger euro following the ECB's upward revision of inflation forecasts have all contributed to the weakening of the US dollar. Meanwhile, as widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has announced the maintenance of its current yield curve control policy. This decision resulted in further depreciation of the yen, leading to USD/JPY trading at approximately 140.7 levels. The BoJ maintains its outlook for inflation to decelerate later in the year. The central bank remains committed to implementing monetary easing measures while remaining attentive to economic activity, price developments, and financial conditions. The upcoming press conference following the announcement will be closely monitored for any insights into the BoJ's perspective on the recent yen depreciation and its potential implications for inflation. Given these developments, market participants will continue to monitor the performance of the US dollar and yen, considering various economic indicators and central bank actions, as they assess the potential impact on currency exchange rates and investment decisions. USD/JPY daily chart BoJ's Tightening Measures and Wage Figures to Determine Policy Direction Japan's economic recovery has been gaining momentum, increasing the likelihood of tightening measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The upcoming release of wage figures for May, in about three weeks, will be crucial in assessing broader wage pressures ahead of the next BoJ meeting scheduled for the end of the following month. Analysts anticipate a potential expansion of the tolerance range surrounding the 0% 10-year yield target at either the upcoming meeting or the one scheduled for September. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey: A Key Indicator for the US Today, one important economic indicator to monitor in the United States is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which includes a component specifically focused on inflation expectations. This particular component is of significant interest to the Federal Reserve as it closely monitors inflation trends. In April, year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 4.6%, but they subsequently declined to 4.2% in May. The survey results will provide insights into consumers' expectations regarding inflation, which can influence the Fed's decision-making process. Fed Board Member Christopher Waller's Speech on Financial Stability At 13:45, Fed Board Member Christopher Waller is scheduled to deliver a speech in Oslo, addressing the topic of "financial stability and macroeconomic policy." Waller's insights and perspectives on these matters will be closely observed, as they can provide valuable insights into the Fed's approach and considerations related to financial stability and broader macroeconomic policies. Euro Area Final Inflation Data: Gaining Further Insights In the euro area, the final inflation data for May is expected to align closely with the preliminary figures, providing additional insights and details on the inflationary situation. These data points will offer a comprehensive picture of the inflationary pressures in the eurozone, enabling market participants to assess the implications for monetary policy and economic outlook in the region. Market participants will closely monitor these events and data releases as they shape market sentiment and influence investment decisions. The outcomes and implications of these developments will be crucial in understanding the ongoing dynamics and policy directions in respective economies.
by FOREXN1
15
Daily Market Analysis - Thursday June 15, 2023Market Analysis: Global shares decline, dollar recovers as Fed pauses rate hikes; ECB and BOJ meetings awaited. Key events on the economic calendar include: New Zealand GDP (QoQ) for the first quarter. Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate announcement for June. Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision for June. US Core Retail Sales (MoM) data for May. US Initial Jobless Claims report. US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June. US Retail Sales (MoM) data for May. Eurozone ECB Press Conference. On Wednesday, global stock markets saw a decline, while the US dollar managed to regain some of its losses. This came after the US Federal Reserve, as expected, announced a pause in its interest rate hikes. However, the central bank also hinted at the possibility of raising rates by an additional 0.5% before the end of the year. During its recent two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve presented new economic projections that indicated a potential 0.5% increase in borrowing costs by the end of 2023. This projection was based on a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. US Fed funds rate The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for determining interest rates, unanimously stated in its policy statement that maintaining the current target interest rate range during this meeting would allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. While it was widely anticipated that the US Federal Reserve would pause its rate hikes, the focus shifted to the communication surrounding potential future increases. In a surprising twist, the participants of the FOMC adopted a more hawkish stance. The median forecast for the end of 2023 regarding the Federal Funds rate was revised upward by 50 basis points, now ranging from 5.50% to 5.75%. SPX NASDAQ and DJI indices daily chart Following the announcement, the closing results of the stock market exhibited a mixed picture. The Dow Jones index concluded the day with a decline of over 230 points, while the S&P 500 index managed to secure a modest gain of 0.1%. The Nasdaq index, on the other hand, experienced a more significant increase of 0.4%. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite index was primarily driven by the positive performance of AI-related stocks, including Nvidia and AMD. In addition to the stock market movements, Wednesday started with Bitcoin surpassing the $26,000 milestone. However, it retraced shortly afterward and reached a 24-hour low of $25,791. Analysts are speculating that it may potentially drop further to $25,000. These sentiments are influenced by ongoing discussions on cryptocurrency regulation, which have been dominating the news recently. BTC/USD daily chart On the flip side, gold prices initially saw an uptick, reaching $1,959 per ounce during the session. However, as Asian traders kickstart their day, the price of gold has resumed its downward trajectory, edging closer to the $1,930 level. This downward movement can be attributed to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which has bolstered the United States Dollar (USD). The prevailing market sentiment currently favors the USD, consequently exerting downward pressure on the price of gold. XAU/USD daily chart The US dollar has demonstrated a decline against multiple currencies, resulting in a 0.32% drop in the DXY index. Among the currencies, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) experienced the most notable movement, surging by over one percent and reaching a three-week high at $0.6211. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP) registered more modest gains, each recording an increase of 0.39%. NZD/USD daily chart Despite the release of favorable exports and machinery orders data, the Japanese yen encountered a 0.9% decline, emerging as the primary loser in the Asian markets. Investor focus was predominantly directed towards the upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting scheduled for Friday. It is widely expected that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to bolster domestic economic growth. This anticipated approach is anticipated to have a favorable influence on Japanese stocks. USD/JPY daily chart Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is expected to encounter further selling pressure as interest rates rise in other regions, diminishing its appeal. Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials, including the newly appointed Governor Kazuo Ueda, have expressed their intention to maintain the bank's yield curve control policy to provide support to the domestic economy. Furthermore, the diminished anticipation of Japanese government intervention in stabilizing currency markets has contributed to the yen's weakening. While officials have issued verbal warnings, no concrete actions have been taken thus far. Currently, traders are closely watching the upcoming monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for later in the day at 12:15 GMT. It is widely anticipated that the ECB will implement a 25 basis points increase in key rates. However, the Staff Economic Projections and the subsequent press conference by President Christine Lagarde will play a crucial role in shaping future policy direction. Market expectations indicate that interest rates will likely reach their peak in July, with speculation of an additional rate hike following June's increase, followed by a potential pause in September. If the ECB adopts a more hawkish stance by implementing a rate hike, it is expected to exert additional selling pressure on the price of gold.
by FOREXN1
1
lINK/USD: UpdateIn this update, I will make a multi-analysis timeframe to analyze. So, during these days, Chainlink made exploxion in the price and climb around of $35.40 USD. My entry long posiiton was aroud of $27.10 USD and we're in profit in this trade from $27.10 USD, at least for me. We have near of 30% in profit, it's great, but I trade this cryptoucrrency by Daily timeframe to keep this trade until the $54 USD, this it's my point to take profit. And also, I up my break even to $28.70 USD. I protect my long position without zero loss. Now, this it's the H4 timeframe and I put my break even above of my price entry that was around of $27.10 USD. My break even it's $28.70 USD. And looking in weekly timeframe, we look that Chainlink closed up this weekly candlestick extremely bullish signal. For that, bulls are prepare to move Chainlink toward the historical maximum price of $54 USD soon. Guys, congraluations if you entry in this trade, we're in profit in this cryptocurrency and also, with nice profits in this trade.
BINANCE:LINKUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
2
Liftoff!! 🛫Crude oil prices continue to rise after reaching our target area (marked in yellow). After the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ met on Thursday, Saudi Arabia made a strong appeal to members of the OPEC+ oil consortium. Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned that "full compliance is not an act of charity" and noted that any attempt at overproduction was "doomed to failure". As long as the bulls hold above $38.45, we continue to be bullish and see the next target in the range of $42.90. The alternative scenario has a probability of 30% and needs to be included in all trading decisions as long as WTI stays below $43.80. Above the resistance zone, the alternative scenario is neutralized. Which, at the same time, paves the way towards the next target, around $50. 🤞 Feel free to comment and share your opinion. 🤞🏿
NYMEX:CL1!
by MarketIntel
S&P 500 trading range with a bias to show further weakness22 Apr 2020 recap - S&P 500 futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) tested support level at 2800 and gave back the gain during the London session while digesting the volatile oil trading session and waiting for US jobless claims report later. The rally from yesterday has shown rejection twice from level 2800. It is worth to note that the rally also tested the up channel, which becomes a resistance trendline. It is expected for S&P 500 index to have a swing down to at least test 2750 or the swing low at 2715 if it is weakening. Should 2715 be broken, we should see a test at 2625, which is an important support level for S&P 500 futures. So far, I expect the price to spend some time within the trading range between 2715–2800, with a bias to break below 2715. Bias - down Key levels - Resistance: 2800, 2830 Support: 2750, 2715, 2625 Potential setup - look for a rejection from 2795–2805 to short. Else a break below 2773 with a weak rally up could be another short entry. First target at the swing low at 2715. Stop loss at 2810.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by mingjong
2