DCL Blogger - your source of all Decentraland knowledge :)Firstly - none of the information posted by me should be treated as financial advice - it can only be taken as an observation of an individual who tries to understand market mechanics for a good few years now. On a daily basis, I work in the engineering sector which requires a high level of specialization - trading is not my primary, but only an additional source of income. I'm a swing trader who does not use leverage - I only follow trends with significant amounts of support. It is no mystery that I trade rarely, limiting my exposure and risk... it is my way, it works for ME. Every trader has a different approach, beliefs, strategies, habits and other characteristics, so don't ever believe anyone that tells you, that they're way is better than your own - they're lying.
How it should be approached (my opinion) :
IMPORTANT: If you look at other trader's analysis for confirmation of your view - you are already doing it wrong. You should only look at others in order to educate yourself - remember to always take your own conclusions instead of blindly following others. At the end of the day - it's your money...
Now down to business :
Every analysis should always start from looking at the bigger picture - Long time frame charts, so this is what I'm going to look at first. Since 17 of june 2019 we are in consolidation. According to Investopedia :
Consolidation is a technical analysis term referring to security prices oscillating within a corridor and is generally interpreted as market indecisiveness. Said another way, consolidation is used in technical analysis to describe the movement of a stock's price within a well-defined pattern of trading levels. Consolidation is generally regarded as a period of indecision, which ends when the price of the asset moves above or below the prices in the trading pattern.
Let's start with the risk: We are currently at the highest price point since September 2019. That's definitely a good place to sell - if MANA was bought any time between now and then.
We cannot say yet if we are going much higher since price oscillates around 500 satoshis - previous highs wasn't broken yet. What we need to see in order to increase our assumption of the probability of a significant upward move is a daily candle to break and close above these levels - and that's not all. I never go into a trade if there is no confirmation of a breakout. What I mean by confirmation in this case: If let's say (today) daily candle (or any other day) closes around 580 satoshis and next day or a few days later drops back down to around 500 sats, while closing above this level (as you can see confirmation sometimes takes few days in my style of trading) I would consider this trade as one with pretty high probability of profit and would go in with appropriate position size in order to limit my risk and exposure. This way I can sleep at night :) and maintain a profitable trading account.
Another important aspect of trading is appropriate placement of a stop loss. Showman says they cut losses short and let winners win BIG. The truth is that tight stop losses often eliminate you from a game - in here all is about patience and discipline.
Some people would laugh if I would say my SL would be around 350 sats area, but the reality is that also I see here possible ascending triangle (in red) formation where suggested entry would be close enough to my stop loss anyways (as of today and if we don't break above resistance which for now is holding strong).
If it comes to long term targets - I marked them with green lines. You can scroll and zoom to see long term targets. For now, we are still in consolidation - regardless of recent bullish sentiment.
Hope this helps :)
Adam.
