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December2021

$ROKU near heavy entry (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 Should probably wait for better entry around bottom support (4/5) General Thesis Weekly RSI good entry level Daily RSI bounced off oversold, could still become bullish divergence with a lower low bounced off near-term (2017) support trend line since inception Growth Gross margins (45%) is pretty steady the last few years, at all time highs Revenue growth (50%) around historical average, down from 2020 pandemic highs Value P/S below average, looks like about historical median P/FCF is very high (156), but about around mid-range of history Fundamentals & Balance Sheet quick ratio very attractive Potential Risks history is quite short, unclear how it will behave during recession Daily RSI could spike down to oversold area some more Historically no bullish divergence on weekly RSI before bounce
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by asdf098
$VMW potential bottom (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 likely (40%) to go down more to touch lower trend line support (2008) General Thesis potential bullish div on weekly RSI @ oversold levels could go down more to touch lower channel support (2008) hovering long-time resistance / support line from peak of 2007, which was broken by covid panic Growth Gross margins high (82%), but decreasing since 2017 Revenue growth about historical average (11%) Value P/FCF below average P/S below average Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low debt to asset (<1) quick ratio good (>1) Potential Risks RSI-W not oversold yet expensive P/FCF another leg down for bullish divergence another leg down to touch lower trend line support
VLong
by asdf098
$TWTR bounce from retest? (4/5)Conviction: 4/5 could have another leg down to complete bullish RSI-W divergence General Thesis breakout and retest from downward resistance line (2014) Weekly RSI at oversold levels - ALTHOUGH could have another leg down to complete bullish divergence 200WMA as support? c-leg down at 100% of a leg down Growth Margins are high, although came down a bit since 2019 revenue growth trending up, about average Value P/FCF expensive, coming down in 2021 P/S about average Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low debt to asset (<1) good quick ratio (4) Potential Risks expensive P/FCF data does not contain last recession another leg down for bullish divergence? can continue to hug downtrend
NYSE:TWTRLong
by asdf098
Bitcoin outlook — Jan/Feb 2022Lines on charts for the end of December 2021 through February 2022. Winter is here, with some storms ahead. Bitcoin looks to continue to follow the short-term trend down from the recent all-time high. I believe we broke up and are currently in a retest. Unfortunately, I don't expect it to hold. The next support is from a previous higher low at ~$45,475. No faith here in this support, it's looking weak AF. I'm looking back at May-July 2021 for clues—particularly June 15th to July 20th, which could very well be the same pattern we take over the next 4 weeks. In short, we respect the major red trendline. However, expect to dip below and retest. So, be ready for more drops. Expect a few nasty bear wicks over the next few days. Totally wouldn't surprise me if it happens during New Year's Eve. So prep accordingly. There will be brief runups with BTC showing dominance compressing ALTs to max pain. Careful with those bull traps. Keep plenty of cash on hand, be ready to buy the dip. Trade this area but within a tight range. If the previous pattern holds, we'll run up but then back down under the trend line and then around February start looking for the run to begin towards the next ATH. Till then. Lighten your bags if you can, be ready to buy those dips. Best of Luck in the New Year!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Accipiter107
1
$DBE brajkout and retest (4/5)Conviction: 4/5 potentially better entry lower around 14.25 General Thesis breakout and retest of off long-term (2008) downward channel resistance weekly RSI did not touch oversold, but seems to hold at historical turning point Growth N/A Value N/A Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low investment in energy production unlikely to have high energy production in the future from "green" initiatives inflation? Potential Risks could hug trend line down further, especially if following elliott wave (5 waves already completed)
AMEX:DBELong
by asdf098
$TDC breakout and retest! (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 General Thesis Weekly RSI looks is attractive but likely to go lower Daily RSI turning up from oversold positions breakout from 2012 down trend resistance, could be the start of a leg up! target $60 Growth Gross margins (57%) is pretty steady, at/near historical highs Revenue growth (1.32%) around 75th percentile Value P/FCF below average (40th percentile) P/S below average as well (25th percentile) Fundamentals & Balance Sheet quick ratio good (~1), although trending down Potential Risks short history quick ratio has been deteriorating sincepeak in 2017 price could continue to move down trend line stop loss at recent trough: $40
NYSE:TDCLong
by asdf098
$IVLU International Value 5th wave to $30? (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 General Thesis weekly RSI showed a recent bouc bounced off long-term (2008) support trend line Growth N/A Value from other research, value of value (i.e. relative performance of value and growth) is at historical highs (i.e. very attractive) also, US outperformance to international stocks is hitting upper bound of uptrend since 2011 which is also corroborated on a longer time frame from other studies. although we have no idea when this is going to turn Fundamentals & Balance Sheet N/A Potential Risks market downturn will cause this to go down too, albeit to a smaller degree to growth stocks did not bounce off of attractive Weekly RSI number
AMEX:IVLULong
by asdf098
$IBM bounce? potential target $300 (4/5)Conviction: 4/5 need to break above descending resistance line for confirmation. depending on speed of ascent, upper channel points to $300 target General Thesis bounced off long-term channel support since 1984-ish recently in 2020 also seems to continue channel since 1999 bounced off short term channel since 2020 lows weekly RSI about neutral Growth Gross margins (50%) is pretty steady, near historical highs Revenue growth (0.33%) is super low, but recent highs Value P/FCF below average (25th percentile) P/S about average Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low debt to asset (<1) Potential Risks entry for Weekly RSI is not ideal, could be lower
NYSE:IBMLong
by asdf098
$ADSK long-term (multi-year) top? (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 could go up some more in near term, but looks quite risky long-term (5+ years) General Thesis weekly RSI showing bearish divergence recently had multiple touches on long-term channel resistance (1991) Growth Gross margins (90%) at historical highs Revenue growth (18%) also high relative to own history, maybe 80th percnetile Value P/FCF about average in the last 12 months P/S at historical highs (about 80th percentile) Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low debt to asset (<1) quick ratio mild (.8) Potential Risks could continue to hug upper resistance short term bounce is possible, last time price touched trend line it took 4 years to touch bottom trend line Historically no bullish divergence before bounce
NASDAQ:ADSKShort
by asdf098
$DISCA likely bottom (4/5)Conviction: 4/5 General Thesis weekly RSI just grazed oversold levels, which means it could go down some more bounced off long-term (2008) support trend line Growth Gross margins (50%) is pretty steady Revenue growth (23%) slightly above historical average, bounce from lows in 2020 Value P/FCF below average (25th percentile) P/S below average as well Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low debt to asset (<1) quick ratio good (~2) Potential Risks RSI could spike down to oversold area some more... unlikely because it just did that in 2020?? Historically no bullish divergence before bounce Currently below all moving averages
DLong
by asdf098
$SAM potential bottom (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 General Thesis potential bullish div on weekly RSI @ oversold levels could go down more to touch lower channel support (2008) fallen about 50%, normally fall 61.8% Growth Gross margins have steadily decreased since 2011 Revenue growth experienced high growth in 2020-2021, but have come down from 50% to about 15% Value P/FCF expensive (negative FCF) P/S about average Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low debt to asset (<1) quick ratio could be better (.8) Potential Risks expensive P/FCF another leg down for bullish divergence another leg down to touch lower trend line support
NYSE:SAMLong
by asdf098
1
$MELI could be done falling (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 could have another leg down to touch lower channel line (2008) General Thesis could have finished 3 leg down correction Weekly RSI at oversold levels - historically only touches this level once before bouncing Growth Margins are consistently falling since 2011 revenue growth trending up, new ATH Value P/FCF expensive (negative FCF) P/S below historical average, come down a lot since peak in 2021 Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low debt to asset (<1) good quick ratio (>1) Potential Risks expensive P/FCF data does not contain last recession another leg down to touch trend support?
NASDAQ:MELILong
by asdf098