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Decisive

Bitcoin: BTCUSD A Decisive Night Lies AheadBitcoin BTCUSD Decisive Night Ahead Bitcoin is now approaching the last major dynamic resistance potential between here and the highs on both Bitfinex and Coinbase charts - though not on Bitstamp. We've seen it just under double so far, gaining 5250 points on Bitfinex from the 6000 low. It can go one of two ways from here: 20:13gmt/15:13est Update and Bull Set-Up First off, was really looking to stay long up to the next line of fixed resistance at 11438 on Bitfinex today but so far the first line at 11257 has proved too much with an intra day high at 11250 so the long from 10840 today got closed out for 400 or so points profit on the first test of the line. Since then there has been a 200 point gain on another quick long from 10900 to 11100 - around 600 points or so. Now it's getting trickier again. The hourly candle shows pretty much a spinning top with pin above as long as it is deep below...indecision, sideways movement likely now...can move sideways to the big dynamic and then comes the crunch. It's Bitcoin, boys. It can always go either way. So we need to cover both the 2 alternatives...The Bull Break: Bitcoin finds buyers enough out of far East or when it opens (or even earlier) to push above the big dynamic and to hold and not fizzzle out by 2am gmt/21:00est - that would be a super-bullish outcome and if it comes at any point tonight must be followed with stops below the dynamic when first broken line by 100 points or so or alternatively, depending on price action, can wait for retest from above once broken ... This break to the upside is a big ask - may well prove too much on this first attempt. But it's Bitcoin. It's done stranger things before - it really can go either way from here. The Second alternative from here: The Bear Break: We need to keep in mind what could still develop from here - which is that Coinbase is leading and saying the rally is done ....and now this last few hours is just unspent upward momentum now running out of steam...if so, the chart will tell us by Bitcoin not being able to push higher above that last big line of last dynamic resistance on Coinbase - so this thing needs watching more carefully than ever for the next few hours...fairly obviously it needs more buyers now if, as we did in the chat room, you bought the dip back to 10900ish - the worry it that it grinds higher slowly and with no real power behind it as we move towards the far east opening...and then tops out ...we just need to be very vigilant tonight - and if it does recoil from the dynamic holding back price on Coinbase and then it goes on to break the last dynamic support line on Bitfinex just around 10600 now ...that would be the signal for swing traders to exit too and also for day traders to start opening short positions on the next rally back towards the now broken trend line. It should fall away to 9500 and then if this fails to 8900 - and has the potential to break much lower still...depends on the shape of the decline - this is the 'bad ' side of the Bitcoin coin, potentially. May never happen but forewarned is forearmed. Time as always will tell us the answer. We follow. To do that we have to see the upper dynamic broken to move back to full-on bull mode from here. Until then we need to tread carefully if still long here. Try not to second guess it too much but be ready to follow the next big signal coldly either way when it comes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
6
EUR/USD at decisive zone!Hello Traders, today we want to share with you the FX:EURUSD as it currently flirts with our decisive zone. As we taking a look at the previous movements towards our reaction point, which is characterized by a clear momentum driven upwards sequence, we now need to be cautious about current continuation. If we take a look at our inter-market indications, it shows that we are currently heading towards lower outflow levels. This however indicates interestingly a divergence with current movement as market continued to rise and our outflow basically (besides minor corrections) moved straight upwards after the FED rate decision and Netherlands elections. We currently take the ratio of FX:EURUSD vs. INDEX:DAX , TVC:GOLD and TVC:EUBUND . We always mention the important of inter market analysis to time our trades and the movement around reaction points better. As it seems that investors may take their profits at current reaction point which could lead to lower prices. If we do not get a momentum driven daily or at least 4-hourly break to the upside, we might see some correction moves around current zone. First heading area will be around 1.077 and then 1.07 or even lower, if market reacts at current zone. We wish you much success. As always please use a stop loss while trading and take care. To you success, Secrets2Trade
by secrets2trade
EURGBP heads south again before breaking trendline?Hello Traders, Today we will share with you guys the FX:EURGBP as it seems to show soon further depreciation towards lower trendline around 0.845-0.85. It currently seems that we see more outflow of capital and profit taking from big investors around the current resistance level. As we believe a further appreciation of the GBP before turning south again in near term underlines the current statement that market may fall a little further again. Also the EUR may have some trouble heading north as it currently flirts with major resistance level. The reaction of the two currencies and the potential outflow in this curreny pair could be decisive if we see further downwards correction or a break of the resistance zone and trend line to head north. Supported by a significant intermarket sign, which points a potential outflow of capital currently towards two asset classes, commodities and bonds! This may underline this setup as it seems that market will initiate a correction at current levels to test lower trend line again. Our intermarket analysis always helps us time our trades better. We see a good timing of a potential short trade as our indication hits current outflow levels. Our measurement is currently the ratio of the FX:EURGBP vs. TVC:DAX , TVC:GOLD and OANDA:DE10YBEUR . Our inter-markets indication gave good accuracy in the past for timing our trades at price relevant levels. We will be looking for interesting entry levels and keep you updated once we see interesting signs of turning south again. As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. Cheers, Secrets2Trade
Short
by secrets2trade
NZDUSD at a very decisive zone! Bullish correction bias? Hello Traders, Today we want to share with you the FX_IDC:NZDUSD as it currently flirts with a very decisive zone around 0.697! The current fall within the FX_IDC:NZDUSD is on one hand caused by the USD strengths, but more importantly because of the Commodity weakness which lead to the New Zealand Dollar weakness. Long-term sentiment within the NZD is more likely bearish as Graeme Wheeler (Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand) always point out the need of a devaluation of the NZD to increase growth. This is caused by the current global situation surrounded by uncertainty and downside risk as China still seems to show some growths weaknesses. New Zealand however, is currently traded in a big wedge formation on mid-long-term as it seems that in the next 3-6 month we might see a significant break to the downside. After the sharp fall in the FX_IDC:NZDUSD it seems that market may find temporary support around the 0.697 zone and will initiate a long move towards 0.712 or even higher. Supported by a significant intermarket sign, which points a potential inflow of capital very soon! This may underline this setup. Our intermarket analysis always helps us time our trades better. We see a good timing of a potential long trade as it seems to hit outflow lows currently. Our measurement is currently the ratio of NZDUSD vs. the SPX500 , NZDUSD vs. Gold and NZDUSD vs. the 10Y U.S. Bonds . Our inter-markets indication gave good accuracy in the past for timing our trades at price relevant levels. However, keep in mind that one of our intermarket indications still remains in outflow territory however with a sign to inflow signs. Therefore, it could be possible that the NZDUSD may tumble around current zone for a little before initiating bullish correction move. Keep in mind this week on Friday we will receive important US employment data which may be decisive for next week's FED interest rate decision. Current odds are around 84.1%. So if we see due to these events a daily close with more than 0.25% below the 0.697 zone, our potential long setup may be invalid and we need to evaluate again. We will be looking for interesting entry levels and keep you updated once we see interesting signs of turning north again. As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. Cheers
Long
by secrets2trade
SPX turning point soon?Hello traders, Today we want to share with you our TVC:SPX perspective as it starts to flirt with a very decisive zone at around 2400-2450. Currently market seems to be a very decisive level for the market weather bearish sentiment will kick in soon or not. Current fundamental important facts to consider: FED rate hike (rate odds jumped in previous days significant higher as they currently are in 79.7% ( CME FED watch) for a march rate hike of 25 basis points. As Yellen spoke on Friday she mentioned to watch very closely at next Fridays NFP. They might be significant for a March rate hike. Of course another factor to mention is the huge influence of President Trumps policy as it may effect further gain within the stock market in several sectors. However, keep in mind that investors sentiment sometimes act before certain policies are taking place. As we look at our intermarket indications we need to be careful, as they currently still warn for a potential downside moves. We always mention the importance of intermarket flows, as we believe that investors only repark their money due to sentiment and global macro-economic conditions. Therefore, we always keep in mind the in-and outflows with the help of our intermarket indications that lead us towards better timing when making a trading decision. As you might know that timing is one of the most important things when it comes to trading together of course with risk/money management. As seen in the chart, two of our three intermarket indications already moving in extreme areas territory which might indicate a soon outflow of capital to other asset classes. We always take into account the BIG 4: Currencies , Bonds, Stocks and Commodities. Only the SPX/Bonds ratio shows still more potential to the upside. Investor may still move their capital to indices from Bonds. This action has still not reversed to reach its extreme on the flip-side! Looking at the technical perspective and current trading range, we have seen an extreme up-rally in the TVC:SPX throughout the whole year so far. It currently trades at 2383 with its all-time at 2401. If Yellen gets supported by +VE US NFP figures on Friday, we might see some volatile movements around that current trading range. Additionally, very important key factors to consider is the current policy of Trump. His tax plan, infrastructure plan and his borderline tax ideas could influence the TVC:SPX significantly. We will keep you updated with that! So, summarizing everything together, we believe that TVC:SPX is currently at a very decisive zone and we need to take care. We will closely watch the actions of investors in terms of capital movements and the fundamental perspective within the FED rate probability. All these factors together we are currently at mid-term turning points where a move to the downside is also possible! Either way we will keep you updated with possible trading setups! As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. We wish you much success, The Secrets2Trade Team
TVC:SPX
by secrets2trade
EUR/USD at a very decisive zone! Intermarkets warning!Hello traders, Today we want to share with you our FX_IDC:EURUSD perspective as it currently flirts with a very decisive zone at 1.05. Currently market flirts again with the 1.05 level as it seems to be a very desicive level for the market weather new bearish sentiment will kick in or not. Current fundamental important facts to consider: France latest polls as Macron gained 2% (now 27%) and overtook Le Pen (25.5%) FED rate hike (rate odds jumped in previous days significant higher as they currently are in 77.5% (CME FED watch) for a march rate hike of 25 basis points, therefore USD could gain significant strengths. Today Yellen will talk and this may be a significant day for the 1.05 level. And of course the other important factors the European Union currently faces. Divergently, as we look at our intermarket indications we need to be careful, as they currently still warn for a downside moves on mid-term. We always mention the importance of intermarket flows, as we believe that investors only repark their money due to sentiment and global macro-economic conditions. Therefore, we always keep in mind the in-and outflows with the help of our intermarket indications that lead us towards better timing when making a trading decision. As you might know that timing is one of the most important things when it comes to trading together of course with risk/money management. As seen in the chart, two of our three intermarket indications showing a tick to the upside as they currently moving in extreme areas territory which might indicate a soon inflow of capital from other asset classes. We take into regard always the BIG 4: Currencies , Bonds, Stocks and Commodities. Only the FX_IDC:EURUSD /Indices ratio shows still more potential to the downside as capital may still flow into Indices. Investor may move their capital to indices. This action has still not reached its extreme! Looking at the technical perspective and current trading range, we see a ranging scenario on midterm. The FX_IDC:EURUSD moves between 1.0825-1.05 (besides on spike to the downside after rate hike in December 2016. If the FX_IDC:EURUSD breaks the trendline on daily close we might consider that the FX_IDC:EURUSD moves higher towards upper range zone. However, if todays speech by Yellen and +VE US Non-Manu figures arrive, we might turn. Importantly is to consider the situation in France and the two parties. So, summarizing everything together, we believe that FX_IDC:EURUSD is currently at a very decisive zone and we need to take care. We will closely watch the actions of investors regarding capital movements and the fundamental perspective within the EU and FED rate probability. All these factors together we are currently at mid-term turning points where a move to the upside is also possible! Either way we will keep you updated with possible trading setups! As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% right and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. We wish you much success, The Secrets2Trade Team
by secrets2trade