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Commodity Outlook: Finding antivenoms in the Year of the SnakeWe are about a month into the Chinese Year of the Snake. The preceding Year of the Dragon (10 February 2024 to 28 January 2025) brought significant momentum to the asset class with broad commodities rising 10%, precious metals rising 36%, industrial metals rising 12%, and even energy and agriculture mustering a late gain (close to 2% each)1. However, the Year of the Snake presents several macro challenges for commodities. Renewed trade protectionism from the US, under the new Trump Administration, is likely to dampen global trade. Additionally, higher bond yields and a strong US dollar create further headwinds for the commodities market. China’s reticence to stimulate big is also holding back the asset class. Despite these headwinds, we have identified several micro factors that could provide support for certain commodities—what we refer to as our ‘antivenoms’. We remain optimistic about precious metals, aluminium, and European natural gas. Additionally, some of the macroeconomic challenges may ultimately prove less severe than initially anticipated, creating potential upside opportunities for commodities that currently reflect bearish sentiment. Strong US dollar The recent strength of the US dollar has historically correlated with weaker commodity prices. While this pattern has been inconsistent post-COVID-19, the dollar's resurgence could once again pressure commodities. Historical data suggests a strong dollar often aligns with declining commodity values. Trump’s trade policies and market impact Donald Trump’s return to the presidency introduces uncertainty into trade and commodity markets. Trump's first presidency saw a trade war with China and other nations, negatively impacting global trade and commodity prices. While extreme tariff measures have often been bargaining tactics, the risk of real implementation remains. In his second term, some tariffs were announced and then delayed; at the time of writing, we still have no real guide as to whether they will be implemented or when. This uncertainty is already dampening market sentiment and increasing long-term interest rates, further constraining commodities. Economic and inflationary concerns Tariffs could raise inflation in the US while simultaneously depressing global commodity prices due to reduced demand. This dynamic may complicate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to control inflation, potentially leading to prolonged high interest rates. Climate policy reversals Trump has vowed to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and declared a “national energy emergency,” reversing climate regulations and boosting fossil fuel production. His administration is expected to cancel a $6 billion Department of Energy program aimed at industrial emissions reduction and repeal incentives for electric vehicles. These changes could suppress demand for critical materials used in clean technology, such as base metals. At the same time, deregulation of oil, gas, and mining operations may increase the supply of key commodities like copper, aluminium, nickel, and cobalt. Major projects, such as Rio Tinto’s copper mine in Arizona, could proceed after years of delays. While immediate production increases are unlikely in 2025, long-term supply growth is possible. Geopolitical risks and energy markets A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, brokered just before Trump's inauguration, has eased some geopolitical risk, though its stability remains uncertain. As we write, a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is being brokered by the US. Short-term oil price spikes are possible if sanctions are initially tightened to get parties to the negotiating table but, ultimately, we could see easing oil and gas prices if a deal is hashed out. The US has been pressuring Europe to purchase more American natural gas, but Russia’s LNG shipments to the EU remain significant. A resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war could weaken US leverage in energy negotiations, making Europe less dependent on American gas. Stricter enforcement of Iranian oil sanctions under Trump could drive oil prices higher. However, OPEC2 members may counteract this by increasing supply, potentially offsetting price gains. China’s economic strategy and commodity demand China remains the world’s largest consumer of commodities, yet its recent economic weakness has limited demand growth. Unlike previous economic cycles where China launched large stimulus measures, its current approach focuses on smaller, targeted interventions. The government has stabilised the real estate sector but remains wary of excessive stimulus due to debt concerns. China is investing heavily in clean technology and renewable energy infrastructure, supporting metal prices despite weak real estate demand. US tariffs on China could accelerate its push toward energy independence, promoting domestic adoption of solar, battery, and electric vehicle technologies. Trade tensions could escalate into retaliatory actions, such as China restricting exports of critical materials, as seen with gallium, germanium, and graphite in response to semiconductor disputes. Further restrictions could impact global supply chains for energy transition materials. China’s depreciating Yuan complicates economic policy. The People’s Bank of China has been intervening to stabilise the currency, limiting its ability to cut interest rates. While a policy shift to boost growth led to short-term market gains in 2024, further action remains constrained by currency pressures. Conclusion In the Year of the Snake, we are searching for antivenoms to counter the potential threats posed by trade wars, a strong US dollar, and a China that may be unable or unwilling to overcome its economic weakness. We see strong opportunities in gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc and European natural gas, as each of these has compelling drivers that could withstand broader headwinds in the commodity complex. As policies become clearer, we may find that our fears were overstated, potentially paving the way for a relief rally across the broader commodity complex. Until then, we place our confidence in these antivenoms.
CBOT:AW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Copper is red hot on China’s reopening, but there is more to itCopper is to commodities, what tech stocks are to equities. They are both historically cyclical but also promise potential long-term growth. Tech stocks were down last year, not because the underlying technologies were dead, but because central banks were aggressively tightening monetary policy. Copper too endured the same fate on account of macro headwinds despite the accelerating energy transition. Lockdowns in China added another layer of disappointment. So, with the macro backdrop changing this year, is the red metal becoming red hot? Markets appear to be endorsing that narrative. What does the demand and supply situation look like? China reopening China consumes more than half of global refined copper with its demand experiencing an eight-fold increase in the past four decades1. Chinese manufacturing activity, therefore, is inevitably a key driver of copper prices (see figure below). Chinese manufacturing activity remained contractionary through August till December last year, as evident from the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. In January, while the number remained contractionary at 49.22, the expectation is for it to pick up in the coming months if lockdowns remain sustainably lifted. China is a crucial source of copper’s green demand too. Chinese subsidies for electric vehicle (EV) makers have given rise to a booming industry to the point where BYD is now competing fiercely with Tesla for market share worldwide. Although subsidies for producers will come to an end this year, tax exemptions for buyers will remain in place through 2023. This will further be supported by the rollout of charging infrastructure, a key component of China’s 14th 5-year plan issued in December 2022. A battery EV can require three to four times as much copper as an equivalent internal combustion engine vehicle. Similarly, a 200 kilowatt (kW) fast charging station uses around 8 kilograms of copper3. There is a similar multiplicative effect on copper demand from other energy transition applications like renewable wind and solar power, which China is heavily investing in. The supply side In What’s Hot: Dr Copper’s misdiagnosis, we highlighted how copper’s inventories on exchanges are perilously low, a sign of supply tightness which could exacerbate if demand picked up quickly. According to Wood Mackenzie, copper may see a slight global refined market surplus of 170 kilotons (kt) in 20234. But there is considerable uncertainty surrounding this forecast. On the supply side, disruptions such as the ones we’ve seen recently in Peru could play an important role. Peru is the second largest copper producing nation and is responsible for around 10% of global mined production. Anti-government demonstrations in Peru have led to shipments being halted at the 300 kt Las Bambas mine, and disruptions at Glencore’s 180 kt Antapaccay mine, and other mines including Constancia (117 kt) and Cuajone (148 kt)5. The figures above highlight how disruption in supply from Peru can easily tip the copper market into a deficit. While disruption may not be as severe this time as it was when Covid caused mine closures in Chile and Peru in 2020-2021, it could still be meaningful especially if coupled with more demand from China. Market pricing has been moving in response to these developments. The energy transition At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged unprecedented support in clean technology across all sectors of the energy transition. For Europe to remain competitive in the new era of clean energy, it must offer something that can rival the US Inflation Reduction Act. In 2023, we expect more action from US, Europe, and China now that energy security has become synonymous with the energy transition. According to Wood Mackenzie, for the world to be on track for net zero by 2050, 9.7 Mt of mine supply will need to come from projects that are yet to be approved. This amounts to $23bn of investment a year in new projects, 64% higher than the average annual spend over the last 30 years. Conclusion Copper’s long-term demand trends suggest it could continue trending upwards but remain cyclical depending on the macroeconomics. Cyclical pullbacks could create interesting entry points for investors who recognise copper’s structural case. Sources 1 International Copper Study Group’s Factbook 2022. 2 Bloomberg, January 2023. 3 International Copper Study Group 2023. 4 Wood Mackenzie’ report, “Copper: Things to look for in 2023” dated January 2023. 5 Morgan Stanley as of January 2023.
COMEX:HG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
SPX 500 - BOTTOM REACHEDOANDA:SPX500USD With the economy reaching PEAK FEAR, very likely we have reached the bottom... But I wouldn't base it on pure fundamentals... Here we see clear Institutional Demand Levels. We have just encountered a substantial demand zone increasing the possibility that we have reached a bottom in the market. We can start to see and trace this evidence in the markets as shown on several different stocks as well. Check my profile for all different potential stocks that can be affected by an increasing S&P 500.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by ringingbells
Groupon Daily Demand zone Groupon acts as the middleman between consumers and merchants, offering a variety of products and services at discounts via its online store. It offers consumers daily deals (in the form of online vouchers) from local merchants. Groupon also sells products directly to consumers. It generates revenue from the take rate on the purchase and/or usage of the vouchers (40% of total revenue) and from direct sales (60% of total revenue). More than 65% of Groupon's revenue comes from North America That area is a well nested area and a cheap stock . marked where am going long with stop loss and Target profit
NASDAQ:GRPNLong
by FxBaus