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Potential Bullish BTC 11 May 2022BTC 11 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 81.61%/year So that converted into daily is 5.14% The opening price was on 30970 So based on that our TOP 32600 BOT 29410 This channel has a 88.3% change to sustain based on the last 290 candles At the same time with 79.3% changes TOP 32200 BOT 29800 From fundamental point, today we have CPI release and this marks a huge volatility moment From volume point, current POC is around 31100 So based on this, and how the SPX market moved in the last 12h aprox, I can expect a small bullish moment for this we can wait and make a long entry around 30k, with a stop loss on 29750/29500/29410 The other was is to not wait for the rebounce on the support and instead just enter now, with the same stop loss values. For take profit look for 31k+, after 31k you can start securing some profits and move the stop loss on break even.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by exlux
Bitcoin, 9 OCT - Elliott waves | Gann | Astrology $BTCBTC got rejected quite precisely at the 55828 Gann level. This corresponds to the 2.382 Fib extension of wave (i). If price breaks down and out of the channel, we may expect choppy action & further contraction of volatility. The Elliott count suggests a wave (iv) is due. Should price rally higher, the entire count needs to be revised. It would be quite unusual if BTC did not re-test the 50k mark. Usually large numbers get re-tested before further upside. My idea at 52k was to begin scaling out in order to protect capital from a potential wave (iv) and set up a theta decay strategy instead. BTC options are still rich in IV to continue this strategy, while being cautious of the upside risk. Sun and Mars conjunct natal Midheaven on 11 OCT and we shall watch out for an expansion of volatility again. ______________ www.constellations.trade In my analyses I combine Elliott waves, Gann theory, and planetary aspects to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to use options premium decay for consistent income when markets may contract and range. BTO = buy to open STC = sell to close STO = sell to open BTC = buy to close TD = Theta Decay (for example a strangle or iron condor) These abbreviations in the chart describe ideas that are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial advice. If you'd like to support my work, you can open accounts here & get discounts: TastyTrade start.tastyworks.com Deribit www.deribit.com Binance accounts.binance.me Disclaimer: The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker. They are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn12250317
Bitcoin, 6 OCT - Elliott waves | Gann | Astrology $BTCOur last entry at 42800 has given us a nice profit so far. Bitcoin is now at the median level between two Gann levels. We can count 5 waves to the upside (green count), assuming that wave v is coming to an end. That would complete wave (iii) of a larger degree (blue count). Sun squares natal Sun on 6 OCT, an important and potentially problematic aspect. An idea could be to scale out as we don’t want to get chopped up in a potential wave (iv). When we see further confirmation of an unfolding wave (iv), an idea could be to set up a Theta Decay strategy to receive income from expiring options. Another idea would be to trade altcoins because they thrive when BTC ranges after a strong move up (Bitcoin dominance decline). Potential support levels for a wave (iv) would be: - 48608 Gann level and .236 Fib - 47400 .382 Fib level This is the range of the blue box. Below 46800 the assumption is invalidated. Correlations: Nasdaq is currently correcting to the upside and approaches the 50-60% retracement zone where sellers may step in again. ______________ www.constellations.trade In my analyses I combine Elliott waves, Gann theory, and planetary aspects to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to use options premium decay for consistent income when markets may contract and range. Open an account here if you'd like to support my work: TastyTrade America's best Options, Futures and Crypto broker start.tastyworks.com Deribit The world's most liquid Bitcoin options platform www.deribit.com Binance 10% off trading fees with this link: accounts.binance.me These abbreviations in the chart describe ideas that are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial advice: STO = sell to open BTC = buy to close BTO = buy to open STC = sell to close TD = Theta Decay (for example a strangle or iron condor) Disclaimer: The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker. They are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn12250317
Mispriced Gamma - Settled Longs Opting Delta Ahead of Massive UpAcross the derivatives markets we're seeing lower premiums than we would expect following this possible gamma increase week over week (which is still ahead of full acceptance). With a significant amount of piecewise linear activity with consistent slopes combined with table-and-chair vertical+sideways motion we saw massive volume creating price constraints as the large ships set their sails following the past month of blood in the seas. If we are in-fact seeing this mis-pricing in Gamma the market would be telling us to short gamma, but, as we know the decentralized liquidity pools are already shorting gamma implicitly if we consider multi-currency effects with Bitcoin as a run-to-safety on either side of the coin from a bear rout to a final upward FOMO. We'd naturally expect intelligent coins to take the opposite side of the trade, then, pricing a significant upward move in Gamma especially at such a relatively low point of volatility. Simultaneously, interest in derivatives is somewhat low. What does this mean? Smart money is extremely long delta simply waiting for the dark forest FOMO shootout to cycle the underwater turbine lifting everyone. The money held behind which ought to be locked in delta-neutral gamma-long positions is actually preferring the missed gamma opportunity in favor of degenerate breakout trading or the other side, flatting the premiums on top of all-time-high degeneracy. If we want to play the first bounce following the all-time high then it would be natural to simply make our way into long gamma here with the intention of missing some of the delta in the initial breakout, kicking the can down the line so that we can instead make our way out of this into long delta on the future bounces.
DERIBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by zdhuxncq65
Bitcoin Perpetual Swaps v Spot basis suggest overlev longs Bottom indicator showing some important Perpetual Swaps contracts vs Coinbase price basis baseline = spot price basis positive = swaps trading at premium (generally strong over-leveraged LONG exposure ), push longs paying funding to shorts basis negative = swaps trading at discount (generally strong over-leveraged SHORT exposure ), push short paying funding to longs We can observe ongoing existence of what is likely to be over leveraged longs. The swaps been trading significantly at premium. Trading at premium mean that swaps funding rates rise substantially and consistently putting pressure on longs since longs pay shorts. Market-markers are on the receiving side of that funding to offset the risk of being against the trend while providing liquidity to a market that may for the moment may be losing some steam on the demand side waiting for a pullback Price been trading consistently above the trendline which remain intact but the swap-spot basis suggest a strong pull may occur in the future. Staying full long (specially if entry is very recent) in what looks like a very possible local top, even if we wick towards 20.1k, is very risky.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by D7R
7
BTC and ETH PrepSwap-Spot basis on avg currently positiveComparison BTC and ETH pairs between BitMEX, Deribit and FTX Perpetual Swaps vs Coinbase (Spot) price basis. We can observe an on-going basis pattern currently trending positive (trading with premium). Positive basis is leading information towards funding rate becoming positive as well. Positive Funding rates means Longs pay Shorts Longs paying shorts mean market makers will have the incentive to provide liquidity to longs. Even if that means another 30% rally up but crash bellow price point where funding turned positive is strongly possible. These analysis are nuanced as usual but as we keep trading in the range the more stronger is the bearish case if we dont see the flip to the negative side. Basis being positive means that Funding rates will be affected accordingly to the positive side. When price trading with a premium market makers have the incentive to provide liquidity to longs by being short because they earn the funding. This is particular important at top of uptrend rallies where they can "engineer" another (fomo) rally or an upthrust while knowing that dump is eminent because of the path of least resistance. This can also be used to artificually surpress price moving too much up. Likewise they keep providing strong liquidity to shorts while ensuring that price wont move much and this way allowing alts to have their rally vs btc and eth. So either this is an effort to keep price still trading in the range while allowing alts to run OR it's the beggining of another significant drop in BTC and ETH price.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by D7R
2
Let's see Neomenia on ETH!With humble beginnings as a paid project by @Patrick2018, a community member with a vision, and throughout countless evolutions and 81 git commits - our baby Neomenia Bot is ready for consumption by the general public. We have had seen considerable success with different config vars over tiem, and now we even supply the most optimized vars according to market condition via a RESTful interface that provides the vars to client apps. We have packaged Windows, Linux and Mac apps for BTCUSDT on Binance, ETHUSDT , and a balance-reporting site of your own like the one (redacted).
BITMEX:ETHUSD.P
by jrsdunn
2
Introducing NeomeniaWith humble beginnings as a paid project by @Patrick2018, a community member with a vision, and throughout countless evolutions and 81 git commits - our baby Neomenia Bot is ready for consumption by the general public. We have had seen considerable success with different config vars over tiem, and now we even supply the most optimized vars according to market condition via a RESTful interface that provides the vars to client apps. We have packaged Windows, Linux and Mac apps for BTCUSDT on Binance, ETHUSDT , and a balance-reporting site of your own like the one (redacted).
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Cryptopat1
BTCUSD: Titanic effort...long term guessLet's see how my understanding of price patterns and fundamental and postioning/sentiment related variables stack up against the facts: I think $Bitcoin will trend up strongly from here onwards, but the path is not yet fully clear. If prices move similarly to how I think they will between now and April, a new all time high will materialize, after confirming a long term trend signal, which would propel prices towards the vicinity of 290k by Sept-Oct 2021... The time duration of the rally would extend significantly, if this were to come to pass, since a new Time@Mode signal would be active, implying a strong continuation of the trend that started when price jumped up from 442 in 2016. For this to be an ideal price pattern, a move like this would need to occur (or, worse, a drop to 6449 or a bit lower, before rallying again, but I think this bearish scenario is negated now). Options and futures expirations are causing significant moves, and prices tend to be shaken up by the action of derivative traders more and more, so I included this variable into my long term analysis of $Bitcoin here. We're currently long from a very good average cost basis, and aiming to ride this move up for as long as it lasts. Let's see if we validate my scenario over time. Guesses like this are only good to test a hypothesis, the actual trading comes from day to day analysis of real time data and sentiment, as well as news, options and futures positioning and activity, and validation of expected post pattern behavior for each technical forecast as we move forward. The end result is that ideally we are positioned to exploit bouts of volatility, to the upside or downside as they come, and end up surpassing simply buying and holding the instrument at hand. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
12
Bitcoin back up over 7200 for now Undetermined resistance. Possibly 7350 or 7402. Beyond that, I am hoping for a move towards higher 7k levels. Deribit options were nice because I was able to get out in profit on both my terrible calls and puts while I was asleep. I closed my short and flipped long on futures at 7200, hedging with a 6500 put Dec. 27 expiry. Quick change to idea while writing this: if it fails to break past 7250 repeatedly it can bounce between 7100-7250 or dip into 7000 Moving forward I am considering: - Place low priced orders for more puts as price rises (not on the weeklies) - Hedge short at each possible resistance level and put tight stops on them - Reduce long (but bitcoin only up so I probably won't do this) - Hedging at 7250 because it's a round number I use COINBASE:BTCUSD as the ticker to view because volume on Deribit is currently too low to create 'proper' price action and volume analysis. Note: if you trade on BitMex, never buy their Ups/Downs. Flood on Twitter has done a whole analysis on why it's a terrible idea. Credits to Crypto Cred/Mayne et. al for SR level + range trading ideals. If you want to learn more/different methods I would suggest looking at their content as well as Trader Dante, tradersz. Murad Mahmudov, TheCryptoDog, and AltcoinPsycho have good content on trading mentality/sentiment analysis. And the others I have forgot (sorry lol).Check my following list or something twitter.com Note: It'd be ideal to get Deribit's funding ticker or index ticker on TradingView, too. Ideally ideal.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by NeoButane
2
Let's Flip a Bitcoin Issue #2Good day, today Ladies and Gentleman, It's your host xR, welcome to Let's Flip a Bitcoin. Let's take a look at what's been popping on Bitcoin. Shall we, jump into it? Last week we provided you all a continuous update through the mountainous peaks and valleys. Bitcoin displayed no mercy towards thousands of over-leveraged investors. In our previous analysis, we uncovered Bitcoin's final signal at seven-thousand four-hundred dollars per Bitcoin before it billowed back above the two hundred day moving average. Hitting a height of ten-thousand five-hundred dollars price per Bitcoin. Viewing the fifteen-minute chart you will observe a confirmed Bullish Kangaroo Tail Signal at seven-thousand three-hundred eighty dollars price per Bitcoin. Although the signal failed on Bitmex, it was confirmed and led by price actions shown on Bitfinex Exchange. China's commitment to adopting Blockchain technologies amplified its effects. These recent events confirm previous suspicions of the expected outbreak. Let us take a close look at the widened perspective to assure we are in the correct alignment to secure a proper market entry for our HODL position. I have outlined the two hundred day moving average in green. We broke clear above its trajectory. Ballistics might have a different opinion about the path of direction Bitcoin is taking though. This isn't the anti-gravitation projection vehicle we were hoping for this year. The slower gradual wavelength of the two hundred day moving average seems to be supporting this formation. I would anticipate we will have a much more subtle climb back to higher price regions. I'm looking for a formal entry with clear signs of market fatigue. The projected course of this wave would indicate that period being sometime early next early. We are entering lower zones within the projected zone of strength from the formation that led to a height of fourteen thousand dollars price per bitcoin. In a bullish scenario, I'd prefer to see price stabilize above the sixty-eight Fibonacci zone. Additionally, we are in alignment with the projected downward trendline. This minor consolidation doesn't display the strength I'd expect from a parabolic movement upwards. I'm still quite bearish. I suggest building a low leverage short into semi-higher price points around ten-thousands five-hundred dollars price per Bitcoin. Thanks for tuning in for this update on our Bitcoin Price Analysis with me, your host, xR.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Krewbacca_xR
How to not get liquidated and relax in the tradeLets face it we all do it, we want that $btc quick and easy so what do we do... LEVERAGE!!! and what is the subsequent fallout of a leveraged position ANXIETY, PANIC, SLEEPLESS NIGHTS (unless you get the optimum entry) So if we are gambling in a mid range between supports and resistance how do we trade either direction and feel safe, or relaxed? Its simple really... DO NOT USE LEVERAGE BEYOND YOUR SAFETY ZONE But what is my safety zone? Lets look at the charts, we can see we have had a big candle, everyone is saying 3-6k but we want to long or even short it down further although some are saying 16k October - confusion?? So we look at the dailyo chart, and eye up some support and resistance zones. Once identified we add the pivots to reveal P, R1, S1 etc. Do those pivots line up with our S/R zones? yes OK so when we make a trade we dont do 50x off the bat, instead we ease in to the trade. So 1x... what is the liquidation engine prompting you, is the liq below/above the identified support/resistance zone... yes - enter trade then 2x - still above below... add to position 3x 4x etc etc If you find you are 10x and your liq is above support (long) or below resistance (short) then reduce your position size or simply do not enter that heavy - easy right? What we dont want is to be mid range going high leverage.. thats called gambling. Unless you have identified a strong/weak point of the market and you are certain of direction then trade safe, trade low lev and wait for confirmation. When in profit move stop loss ...and always protect your capital. Finally = Trade responsibly
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cooper_5e
Some ALTS looks ready. CryptocurrencyThere's a couple of ALTS that looks ready to fire off. In the crypto market, what you want to see is Bitcoin Dominance drop and BTC price to remain sideways. At the current time, BTC price is sideways. BTC dominance has not dropped just yet, but as you can see for TRON. We're on a horizontal support with WEEKLY CCI curling back to the upside and crossing the 50 CCI (blue line.) Nothing is confirmed just as as I am just posting this in advance. But I am bias to the upside for some ALTS (not all of them.) As market sentiment for ALTS have basically died and become very bearish. This is the first sign that there might be a strong reversal soon for ALTS (not all of them.)
BITFINEX:TRXUSD
by cooface
1