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US10Y 🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Interest Rate History (1913 - 2022) One of the biggest "shocks" in the 22' financial markets is the breaking of the long-term (weekly) trend in Interest Rates — specifically the U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y), which has gone through now two long-term trend cycles since it’s history dating back to 1913. Given the inflation fight that the Federal Reserve is currently waging, while at the same time keeping in mind the structural debt-load that the U.S. 🇺🇸 is current burdened with, this begs the question can rates actually go higher from here? While we do not know the answer as to the actual trajectory of interest rates into 23’ and beyond — what we do know is that given the structural debt load, we can speculate that at some point rates will likely be forced lower as a proxy of stabilizing inflation and also total debt servicing obligations of the U.S. Government. 
Also keep in mind comments by J. Powell and the Federal Reserve as they have been preparing investors for a new macro regime of “higher for longer” . Should this actually play out and not just be the "hawkish tone" of the Federal Reserve that is helping to push interest rates higher, investors must consider the ramifications that could come IF we have truly entered a new (rising) interest rate regime that includes structurally higher rates as part of the next 40+ year historical cycles. Here is the same chart of the (US10Y) paired against the backdrop of other macro indicators including Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, as they give us insight as to both the bull and bear thesis for yields moving forward: U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Debt Total Public (GFDEBTN) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Central Bank Balance Sheet (USCBBS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Liabilities & Capital (WRESBAL) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. S&P 500 (SPX, SPY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, DIA) 📊 What is your take on the forward trajectory of interest rates? Have we officially broken the 40+ year downtrend on structurally low interest rates, given the potential for entrenched inflationary pressures within the U.S. economy? Or, will rates be forced lower as structural debt obligations of the U.S. are far too great to support the notion of "higher yields for longer"? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇🏼
TVC:US10Y
by kylemusserco
2
2022 Yearly Recap - SPY QQQ DIA IWM DXY US02Y EFFR USIRYY Looking back over the last year (22'), as the saying goes "hindsight is 20-20". That said, here's the recap on the 22' market cycle against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hiking Cycle (one of the fastest on record) — while at the same time, we (investors) are all asking "What's next for 23'?" TOP SECTION DXY - Dollar Index ($104.51) 🔼 ✅ (Green Line) US02Y - U.S. 2yr Treasury (4.38%) 🔼 ✅ (Black Line) US10Y - U.S. 10yr Treasury (3.84%) 🔼 ✅ (Blue Line) EFFR - Effective Federal Funds Rate (4.33%) 🔼 ✅ (Orange Line) USIRYY - U.S. YoY Inflation Rate, Federal Reserve Target Rate = 2% (7.10%) 🔼 ✅ (Baseline = 2%, Red = Above Target, Green = Below Target) BOTTOM SECTION SPY - S&P 500 SPX ES1! (YTD 22', -19.92%) 🔽 🩸 QQQ - Nasdaq NQ (YTD 22', -33.95%) 🔽 🩸 DIA - Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA (YTD 22': -8.77%) 🔽 🩸 IWM - Russell 2000 RUT (YTD 22': -22.57%)🔽 🩸 Prediction(s) these asset classes for 23'? Let me know your macro trade(s) in the comments below! 👇🏼 All Asset Class Chart Template 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com Index Chart Template w/ YTD Return Indicator 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com
TVC:DXY
by kylemusserco
Warning VIX model is now set up to SOAR My work posted a few days back call for a drop to below 20 .Today we saw this and I was 85 % plus net long goint into this morning in trow spy qqq smh aapl and calls I HAVE SOLD EVERYTHING net gain 3.5 to 4.6 % I am now back to 100 % cash the net gain for 2022 is now back above 64.2 % . I stated this rally would be very strong into jan 3/10 2023 see 1973 chart dec 15 . The issue is now that the VIX did not get up to mid 24 /27 as I had hoped . So what is next well we had 4 days below the bb bands which on odds rallies min back into it and we saw that today . I do NOT like the pattern in the vix see the arrows and this formation the last 4/5 times the VIX SOARED > I am flat and I will not short . I am NOT SURE with this setup I must PROTECT GAINS as everyone else takes losses of min 20 % see forecast dec 2021 model min drop 20% for 2022 well 2023 I think we will see another 16.8 to 21 % drop I am working on the cycles as well as the SPIRALS . best of trades WAVETIMER
TVC:VIX
by wavetimer
2
40 Bar Cycle Chart - Dow Jones DIA DJIA - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets. Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼‍♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly". Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for DIA DJIA, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $330 DIA / $33,000 DJIA, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking? DIA Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:DIAShort
by kylemusserco
1
From "Hovercraft" to IHS pattern? WAY EARLY but interesting 2cDo you see it? $DJI Is it easier to see on weekly? The "Hovercraft" patter COULD be a precursor to an Inverted Head & Shoulder! See it now? IT'S WAAAY early & it doesn't mean it'll happen $ETH had one recently & went kaput Can $DJI #BEAR be ending? Time will tell IMO chances are NOT for BUT As stated MANY TIMES #markets are NOT logical What about $NDX $SPX & $RUT? Short answers no, bleh & actually looks like head & shoulder recently lol
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DJI forms Outside Week (DAY)Had no plan for trades 2day barring huge opportunity, which not seeing BUT like $META action in "bear" market Did say keep this in mind BUT THIS IS NOT THREAD FOR @facebook It's for $DJI and its cronies #DJIA $DIA $UDOW $SDOW WE HAVE HUGE MOVE in place with more to follow Being this is WEEKLY the paint = more important 31.7k is 50% retracement but IMO we're likely retesting 30k next year, just don't see bloodbath ending year Another post which may or may not post here later AFAIK no such thing as HOVER pattern🤣 Me having FUN BUT could be precursor to one! IHS patter is hint
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
40 Bar Cycle Chart - Dow Jones DIA DJIA - Updated 121022Given that we are headed into the release of the November Consumer Price Index this upcoming (Tuesday, December 13th) and also the December Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, December 14th) , are markets set up for another short opportunity into the end of January (Q1)? DIA DJIA Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below!
AMEX:DIAShort
by kylemusserco
DIAUSDTMy current view on DIAUSDT. DIA (Decentralised Information Asset) is the governance token of an open-source oracle platform that enables market actors to source, supply and share trustable data. DIA aims to be an ecosystem for open financial data in a financial smart contract ecosystem, to bring together data analysts, data providers and data users. In general, DIA provides a reliable and verifiable bridge between off-chain data from various sources and on-chain smart contracts that can be used to build a variety of financial DApps.
by kbrls
DIA Dow Jones Outlook For 2023Throwing a textbook at the charts it becomes clear at what is happening. This is DIA Dow Jones ETF: - A Clear double bottom formed that pushed DIA to recent resistance - yellow line - Another rising wedge is forming which we will see correction, small correction. - After small correction we will retest Resistance line again. - AFTER the above we will form a DOUBLE TOP which we can retest resistance. ALSO note the fibonacci levels at 0.618 we will have to close the gap at the green arrow.
AMEX:DIAShort
by MARKETLYTICAL
Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 3.06% last week according to VXD data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 7th percentile, while according to VXD, we are on 8th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.6% movement Bearish: 1.9% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 19.5% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 35473 BOT: 33370 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 79% probability we are going to touch previous high of 34750 21% probability we are going to touch previous low of 33370 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 77% BULLISH trend Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend 4H timeframe indicates 53.3% BULLISH trend
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!
by exlux
DJI Dow Jones Short???Hello there! Great news came out yesterday regarding the interest rates by May 2023. Regardless, a great pump in market yesterday. But with such actions opportunities arise that can be seen while charting the trend. Here we have Dow Jones Industrial DJI shown: - A previous falling wedge worked it self into a nice pump. - Heading into correction territory. - How do you find where the correction will retest and bounce? -- Take a look at the previous Unclosed gad in green box at the 1HR chart. Gaps eventually will have to be closed. -- Also take a look at the FIB where the 0.618 lands, right at the GAP. What are your thoughts? Thank you for taking a look. Cheers.
DJ:DJIShort
by MARKETLYTICAL