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Digitalsurf

20 Year SPX Bear MarketAfter looking over and fine-tuning my analysis for SPX over the past few months, I think I've calibrated things as good as they will get for now (barring any new, major developments which would force me to re-adjust my wave count). SPX has been on a tear from 1877 to 2022 for a very large Grand Supercycle (a 5 wave move lasting more than 100 years). Though timely corrections were seen during the Great Depression (1929-39 roughly) and during the 9-11/Iraqi War timeframe (early 2000s), to name a few, the Bulls have always responded and claimed higher highs afterwards. Giving SPX traders the feeling that it will never ever come down. However, the injection of the COVID era seems to have forced the SPX into a much different and more dramatic phase potentially. Though a new all-time high was seen after the introduction of COVID-19, the lingering nature of this disease and its effect on global economies will continue take a toll on the US Stock Market as it seems.. Surely, I'm no Doctor but I think SPX has a case of Long COVID to put it more plainly. Beyond the fractal by fractal wave counting, I've also heavily considered fibonacci levels plus RSI readings. Things to note: 1) Wave 5 terminates between +1.38 or +1.618, compared to the size of Wave 4. Currently the hypothetical Wave 5 sits at more than +2(00%) the size of Wave 4, technically making it extended. 2) The Elliott Wave science suggests that RSI has the lowest peak in Wave 1, the highest peak in Wave 3 and an obvious divergence in the peak of Wave 5's divergence. Looking at the circled areas of SPX's RSI window, all of these guidelines seem to ring tru. Its clear to see that the RSI peaked in Wave 3, its also clear to see that although Wave 5 made a higher-high in price action - the RSI level terminated at a lower level compared to Wave 3, its also clear to see that the RSI in Wave 1 was the lowest of the three-trending-waves (1,3 and 5; Waves 2 and 4 are corrections against the trend). As for price levels, its my belief that if SPX cannot reclaim and hold support above 4000=4600 in the next few years to come then the pending pump (which should initiate in the days/weeks ahead) will only serve as a correction/relief rally/retracement. WIthout 4000-4600 turning into support (in the next few years), I have reason to believe that the Bear Markets is even more likely (see outline below).
SP:SPX
by DigitalSurfTrading
12
Bitcoin's Route to $3,000,000+: An Elliott Wave Based OutlookWhat are the possibilities for the future of Bitcoin? There's mixed perspective with the retail and institutional world of investors but to base things solely on my opinion of its all-time wavemapping, I think Bitcoin could see upwards of $3M-$4M per coin by the early 2030s. I too anticipate a number of heavy, undeniably deep corrections to come during that timeframe but Bulls should be able to do the heavy lifting to restore its value. Regardless of whether you're a lifelong Bitcoin fanatic or an unbiased trader for profit, the pending corrections can and should be avoided. This is how profits are maximized. Hopefully this is the last Bitcoin chart I'll ever have to share on TradingView but nevertheless, I will update accordingly.
BNC:BLX
by DigitalSurfTrading
9
Binance Soars Towards $800 Despite Widespread FUDBinance, a giant in the crypto ecosystem, is gearing up for an important run as it looks towards a new all-time high. With much speculation around a recent audits and interviews, price action is seemingly unaffected as buyers continue to load up on the dip. Interpreting the price action from BNB's all-time low, I believe that it is due to test the $800 mark (or come damn close to it) at some point late in 2023 or early 2024. Considering this pending upside wave as the last in its first cycle (Wave 5), I too fully expect for Binance to make a tremendous drop afterwards. Making a 32637X move from the lowest price point ($0.00) to the highest (believed to be $800 roughly), at minimum , Binance should drop towards the 38-50% fib levels . 61.8% and 78.6% are also very commonly seen under these circumstances. As a Binance investor, I would personally begin to look for sells/exit near $800. As a user, I would consider switching to another broker or to cold storage. Typically when crypto brokers suffer these sort of sizeable setbacks, withdrawals are frozen. Itll be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next 1-3 years. Until next time, stay safe and whatever you do, don't drown. Surf!
BINANCE:BNBUSD
by DigitalSurfTrading
4
Coke Zero?Coke will remain my soft drink of choice however, I will not be buying any of its stock any time soon. Recently KO was suggested as 'safe stock for seniors' however, I couldn't disagree more. Coke has spent the past 20 years climbing up towards its recent, new all-time high but the lasting RSI divergence is quite evident. There's a pretty good chance that this stock loses nearly 80% of its value over the next 7-10 years. Holders should look for the most suitable exit in order to avoid more losses than necessary. (Wave analysis has been redacted from this marking however, wave-by-wave analysis will be tracked via link in bio).
NYSE:KOShort
by DigitalSurfTrading
11
NGAS: Will Demand for Natural Gas Increase With Climate Change?Natural Gas's all-time price action/chart suggest that it is due for a sizeable, generational bull run, to start within the next 3 years. One could blame it on war or climate change or politics but I am not smart enough to determine which may be the actual cause, if any. I can instead deduct from NGAS' wavemap that we are unlikely to enjoy the low prices we've seen during the early 90s or at late as Spring 2020. I've never looked at an inflation chart or have been able to determine what's next for us in that regard but I think this commodity alone can give us some decent expectations. What happens if/when it costs 20x more to keep your home cool in the summer (or warm in the winter)? With an extended diagonal wave in primary Wave 1 of NGAS, we can expect that primary Wave 3 will be likely extended beyond the 1.618 level. We cannot say that this will occur for sure but it is as likely as it ever is. After finding possible support below $5 in 2024, this commodity could make citizens want to hit the rewind button irl. By 2037-2040, Natural Gas could and should be more than the price of Oil. At this point and time, I genuinely believe that NGAS will go 40X within the next 15 years. This is indication that I've found through continued analysis of price action. I have no reason to doubt this perspective but am well aware that it could be invalidated upon any given day. For continued analysis of this worldwide commodity and help with taking advantage of a possibly upcoming generational swings, come surf with me and the Digital Surf Trading Community.
NLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
2
Meta Undergoes MetamorphosisFor the 9 year span between 2012 and 2021, Facebook grew at an average of 200% per year. Now being almost rested from a 1800% wave that stretched its value from $19 to $359 per share, Zuckerburg and Co. are ready to make way towards their encore siting near the price tag of $2579. A stock split could alter this price target but if an investor were to buy the big dip near $60, I'd expect the 4000% increase in value to remain a high probability outcome for Wave 3. While Jim Kramer is shedding tears because he was blindsided, we at least knew that META was nearing its peak level and a finish of Wave 5. While I'm not sure of his nor others approach to technical analysis, Elliott Wave gave clear signal that it was not the season for buying META. The morals of the story are simple, buy the dip, don't follow Kramer's advice and SURF!
NASDAQ:METALong
by DigitalSurfTrading
1
Meta Obliterates SupportMeta/Facebook has destroyed its nearby support level and has nothing left to sustain ground for any lasting upside push. A relief rally could come over the next couple of years however, the downward slope has already initiated. Barring any rise above $305, it can be comfortably assumed that Meta will look to discover support near the $60 range. Holders should look for the most suitable exit in order to avoid more losses than necessary. (Wave analysis has been redacted from this marking however, wave-by-wave analysis will be tracked via link in bio).
NASDAQ:METAShort
by DigitalSurfTrading
10
Bitcoin's Probable Wavemap: $113K to $5KWhile Bitcoin's fate is unwritten, considering its historical, all-time price action there are certain signals that we should be able to gather, based solely on its continuous price action. Over the last few months, the wave count for BTC has been a bit muddy at best but should we be where I think we are, the Digital King will be soon on its way towards a new all-time high precisely in the range of $113K (based on BTC's all-inclusive wavemapping). Though this hypothetical pending pump will be euphoric for many of us retail traders, from where I sit, the unorthodox ATH will amount to nothing more than a sucker's rally. The days of enormous Bitcoin growth are on ice until the current corrective phase finishes. Bitcoin enthusiasts across the world are happy that the downward-swing is signaling the end of the #CryptoWinter. I definitely look forward to the #CryptoSpring as well, but I am not very optimistic that that the mid-term (3-5 years) forecast will result in the bulls favor! We could see seasonal swings of winter > spring > fall ... #CryptoWinter = 2021-2022 #CryptoSpring = 2022-2024 #CryptoFall = 2024-2027? Traders that have numbly relied on the Halvening to be the catalyst for Bitcoin's new growth cycle will likely be in for a rude awakening during the #CryptoFall. If/when Bitcoin Bulls are unable to maintain its current 5 year trend line, its heavy RSI divergence (since February 2021) should/could force a deep, healthy correction. Before Bitcoin is able to achieve more high-rate growth, it must first withstand a very probable, mind-blowing 93% correction from the likely ranges of $113K to $5K.
BNC:BLX
by DigitalSurfTrading
2
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Prepares for New All-Time High Near $99.4KBy or during Spring 2024, Bitcoin should be near its next destination within the expected price itinerary ($99.4K). After taking a Beary Bad beatdown over the past 8 months, the gloomy sentiment of further capitulation has settled within the minds of many retail traders. Making the timing ripe for the market to feast. According to the waves we've witnessed from June until now, I on the other hand think that Bitcoin has instead taken all the abuse it will allow from the Bears, for now. With a 73% reduction in value from its current all-time high at $70K, price action has seemingly formed a vey sharp zig-zag wave downward. Based on my personal wave count from Bitcoin's very first all-time low candle, I think the macro pattern spells out a pending pump for the Digital King. Forming what I believe to be a Leading Diagonal from June's bottom price at $17.6K and ultimately pushing up to the range of $25K, the Digital Surf Gang and I were totally expecting a deep dive back to the range of $18-$20K for a major test and a likely level of discovered macro support. If I had to be more specific on the expected support level, I'd guess that it comes near $20.1K, in a matter of hours from now. With an apparent Leading Diagonal in Wave 1 (of a hypothetical Wave A), I expect Wave 3 of said Wave A to become extended in form. This extension would likely get Bitcoin back above $40K by October of this year (2022). Looking beyond the nearest term pump, I believe that Bitcoin will reach the $99.4K mark by Spring of 2024 . As you can see on my chart, though I'm confident that a new all-time high comes, it'll likely only be a big trap as the ascending move would be due to come in corrective form, instead of impulsive. Not too long from now, many traders and investors will better understand why it is better to 🏄 than to #hodl (if they haven't already).
BNC:BLXLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
8
Bitcoin: Momentum Looks Toward Liquidity Near $27K-$29KWith a 70% drop in value over the past 8-10 months, its easy to understand why many traders consider price levels of $3K, $10K, $14K, $16K and even $0.00 as appropriate at this time. Relying solely on Bictoin's price structure, even to consider the waves from its all-time low, I find all of the above mentioned targets as doubtful in the least (though I have been wrong before). As my prediction was made weeks ago, I yet expected Bitcoin to find very solid support above the $18.6K level and am hesitant to consider other macro, bearish alternatives without this being negated. Still sitting nicely within its apparent Leading Diagonal pattern, wedge Wave 4 should conclude very soon, likely within the next 48 hours. Also considering the guidelines of a Diagonal Wave, which many also classify as Wyckoff, the next upside swing should be at least $6503 in length, pointing us minimally to low $26K. Looking at the current upside trend line, one could also see why $29K would be attainable. The distant ranges of traders' emotion are currently on full display. At $17K most people thought gloom, I was too undecided a bit here but shortly after the pump initiated and I found some invalidations for more downside, my sentiment has since been bullish. At $25K, certain bulls proclaimed that price was heading back into the $30Ks and beyond. The Digital Surf Trading Community was in total expectation of a drop to the $20K range. Now that we're below $20K, the sentiment of gloom and fear has yet returned. With the theory of Support and Resistance, traders feel that a drop below $20K is a very very big deal. TradingView and mainstream news articles only help to cement this bias. In the grand scheme of price action however, $20,000 is simply just another number, though definitely a psychological level when looking at the bare naked number. Should the target range of $27K-$29K be actualized, fully expect a retest near $21.5K, though there is slim chance that support could be discovered above this level. Based on Fib levels and my personal wavemapping, $18.6K is the only major level in the current range. If Bears can't strike below it, Bulls are largely yet in control. As said weeks ago, Crypto Winter has concluded and Crypto Spring is upon us (unless $18.6K breaks).
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
44
There's No Wonder Why Elon Hasn't Bought Back His Tesla StockBefore Elon's announcement of any stock split, it was predicted that Tesla's stock was due for a deep retracement. Week ago, I thought that drop action had finalized however, based on reassessment of the wave structure + assessment of NAS100, it seems very likely that Tesla will do its part it assisting to drag down the index. Many would assume the outcome from Tesla AI Day would result in bullish momentum or new investors, and it very well may. The new buyers (investments) won't be enough to stop the pending 50% drop however. Holders should look for the most suitable exit in order to avoid more losses than necessary. (Wave analysis has been redacted from this marking however, wave-by-wave analysis will be tracked via link in bio).
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by DigitalSurfTrading
Marathon Reaches IntermissionWith an overlapping wave structure since its inception, Marathon has seemingly finished Wave 3 of its apparent diagonal wave. With Wave 3 being longer than Wave 1, it should also be expected for Wave 4 to be longer in price length than Wave 2. This makes it very probable for share price to see a 50% shave over the next couple-few years. A drop below the yellow line is nearly mandated currently (unless a new all-time high is secured). Holders should look for the most suitable exit in order to avoid more losses than necessary. (Wave analysis has been redacted from this marking however, wave-by-wave analysis will be tracked via link in bio).
NYSE:MPCShort
by DigitalSurfTrading
2
Gold's Route to New All-Time High -- PostponedGold's transitory route towards a new all-time high has been postponed. Due to a misread with Waves 2 and 4 within sub-wave 3, the previous idea of Gold finding bottom support immediately below $1680 is obviously nullified at this point. Using invalidation as a signal, its now very safe to assume that Gold will drop to $1500-$1480 before support is likely discovered. Considering the size of the Zig-Zag correction in Wave 4 (of sub-wave 3), Fib levels point to the zone of $2270-$2570 for the next multi-year, upside swing. Roughly a 50% anticipated increase in value, traders/investors/hodlers are due to reap decent profits. Surf with the Digital Surf Trading Community for daily-weekly updates on Gold, BItcoin and more.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DigitalSurfTrading
Gold Prepares for New Bull Run/ATHResharing this as my last idea wasn't very useful in micro terms. Knowing all to well that the macro picture is what matters most, I still had 0 intents of sharing a decade's long trade idea. Hopefully it ages well though :) Focusing this time on the more near time, anticipated price action, we can see that Gold is near very strong support levels. In Elliott Wave speak, I believe us to be ending (c) Wave of an all-time Wave 4 correction. With (b) Wave of Wave 4 only reaching 100% of (a), it is my belief that (c) wave will reach 100% of (a's) bottom - near 1682, or down to 105% below (a)'s bottom - near 1662. Gold's new all-time high will sit between $2200 and $2415 and should be seen within the next 18-24 months. I've missed the top of the last big sell entry but won't find myself on the sidelines for this one. You shouldn't either. Grab your surfboard and ride the wave with us.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
5
Tesla Gets TestyOver the past few years, not many companies have seen the hype that Tesla has when it comes to its stock performance. Starting at $1.10 in 2010 and pushing up to the range of $1200 near a decade later (before the stock split), early investors have enjoyed monumentally unfettered growth in profits. A side-effect of this historical growth has been undeniable euphoria. There is no better drug for a trader to experience. Even after Elon Musk sold large amounts of his shares, euphoria is what kept many retail investors loyally invested. The only reward to come was a loss of peak gains. Although Tesla has more juice in the battery pack and could easily extend its value towards $520 in the months ahead, the pending correction will be monstrous and one that any investor should want to protect themselves against. See related ideas below: Tesla Prepares for Major Dip... (before a stock split was actualized, the waves showed that a return below $500 was very likely to come). Tesla Returns to $50... (a supremely immature call. The current position of the pattern was also incorrect however, the retest level below $50 is very likely to manifest beyond 2023).
NASDAQ:TSLA
by DigitalSurfTrading
1
Bubble Trouble: A Multi-Decade Bitcoin Prediction (BTCUSD)Admittingly, I am beyond fascinated by the structure and massive growth that Bitcoin has seen over the years. I don't mind acknowledging the fact that I was late to crypto and trading too, to an extent. My missing of the initial take-off has nothing to do with this prediction and I share it with no bias at all. While I do believe that cryptocurrencies are now a staple in the world's financial system, I have little faith that Bitcoin will forever remain as the most dominant currency within the market. I say this solely because of BTCUSD's price structure and current wavemapping. I don't follow news too closely nor do I heavily consider many factors outside of the chart itself. The use of Elliott Wave Theory allows me to minimize any personal bias and follow a close set of rules/guidelines to help find tremendous probabilities, both bullish and bearish in nature. Surely, I am familiar with the term bull and bear , but I regularly subscribe to neither. Rather, I surf wherever the profits may take me. So now you know a bit about my logical stance, let's talk specifically about Bitcoin. Having surged 202875423 % since its inception, its easy to fall in love with the allure of its massive, historical strides however, I find an issue with Bitcoin not having made its proper corrections earlier in its journey. With a very dismal 38% correction after its rise to $31, one could consider this as a Wave 2 correction despite not reaching common retracement levels. The hypothetical Wave 2 also failed to erase the previous Wave 5 within primary Wave 1. There are no rules that dictate these actions as being invalidation indicators but they both go against what's most frequently observed (within impulsive waves). Rather than considering the correction from $31 > $2 as Wave 2, logically I place this as a Wave B correction. After B wave's termination, naturally its my expectation that C wave has then started. Usually within a diagonal wedge, I have the tendency to assume C wave will generally be a smaller diagonal pattern but its totally eligible to be in impulsive wave as well. Hint: A diagonal wave is constructed of 5 zig-zag waves. The anatomy of a zig-zag is that both A and C waves have to be 5 wave moves. The are two options for 5 wave moves in Elliott Wave Theory - Impulsive or Diagonal waves . A zig-zag can have two impulsive waves between A and C but cannot have two diagonal waves between A and C (see below) . As stated in the image above, I believe that Bitcoin is currently in a wedge formation with Wave 1 being constructed of a zig-zag with two impulsive waves (A + C). Currently moving through the (C) wave of Bitcoin's primary first wave, I believe that we are more precisely within Wave (a) of Wave 4 - within (C) wave of Bitcoin's primary first wedge-wave. Based on my perception, the anatomy of (C) wave can be seen here: As for Wave (a) of Wave 4, within (C) Wave (the current downside swing from $67K), I think that Bears will retain momentum until we strike the $11K-12K range. Placing the Fib tool on this specified range, it gives indication that Wave (b) of Wave 4 is likely (not promised) to reach between $103K-$136K by early 2024; a 10x wave. Also placing the Fib tool on the range of $11K to $136K, a possible range for Wave (c) of Wave 4 can be determined as $2355 to $6255; a 95% drop - possible to come by early 2025. If this drop does pan out, it will be very painful for not only Bitcoin holders but likely the crypto community as a whole - only for a brief period of time. We Elliotticians know that after Wave 4's correction, new heights are generally seen within Wave 5 (aside from truncated Wave 5s). Using the Fib tool to measure the total price range of Wave 4, we can also gather possible levels for the hypothetical Wave 5 that should come. What target range do you think we'll see? Ready for this () ? The idea of Bitcoin hitting $1,000,000 by the year 2027 may seem farfetched to some. The idea of Bitcoin falling from $1,000,000 to $10 will surely seem farfetched to the rest but by 2030-2032 I expect this to come to fruition. From this level, I believe Bitcoin will initiate its next bullish wedge wave which should should once again hit astronomical levels, maybe near $1,700,000. Who knows! The alternative to this idea is that Bitcoin gets Luna-bombed and drops from $1,000,000 to $0! For more actionable, daily and near real time analysis, join me on the waves (and don't forget your surfboard). No updates will be shared under this post; see my TradingView bio and let's connect.
BNC:BLX
by DigitalSurfTrading
5
Tesla Postpones Descent Below $500 | Digital Surf TradingThe supreme Tesla giant has postponed its tremendous descent below $500 as the previously anticipated Extended Flat has turned out to be a Running Flat correction instead. With a level of concrete support established in the $700 range, the EV leader is now due for a new all-time high in its Wave 5 move which should allow Bulls to reach between $1700 and $2300 by Summer/Fall 2023. The science of price action lets us know that after a 5 wave move completes, a 3 wave correction is to follow. For Tesla, this means that its postponed downswing should see the levels of $170 at most and a mind-boggling $35 at the least -- within the next 3-4 years. I believe there is decent chance that Tesla turns into the next greatest bubble stock. The alternative being that its price will reach beyond $100,000/share during the 2030s, which I'm just super doubtful about. I have no position with or against this stock so I share this with 0 bias and am simply looking forward to see how the price action develops.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by DigitalSurfTrading
10
SAM: Boston Beer CompanyLooking to follow his family’s passion for brewing, Jim brewed the recipe in his kitchen with the hopes of challenging the status quo in the American beer industry. He started by introducing American drinkers to craft-brewed beers that were full-flavored, balanced, and complex, and brewed with quality ingredients. Pleased with his brew, Jim started The Boston Beer Company with his co-founder and first employee, Rhonda Kallman. In those first months, Jim walked bar-to-bar with a briefcase full of beer that he called Samuel Adams Boston Lager, in recognition of one of our nation's great founding fathers, a revolutionary man of independent mind and spirit. Boston Lager soon became a catalyst of the American craft beer revolution, making its public debut in Boston on Patriot's Day in April 1985. Six weeks after its introduction, Boston Lager was selected as "The Best Beer in America" in The Great American Beer Festival's Consumer Preference Poll, which became an award Samuel Adams Boston Lager went on to win an unprecedented four times. If you're unfamiliar as to what beverages are made by SAM, think Samuel Adams (of course), Angry Orchard, Twisted Tea, Truly (seltzer) among others. While you may not be hip to 'Boston Brewing Company', if you enjoy alcoholic beverages, chances are you've indulged in at least one of their products. More fascinating to me than the number of household brands this company supports is the wave structure of its all-time price action. If one didn't believe in the power of an extended 3rd wave before now, feast your eyes on its magically vertical increase in price, practically since inception! For what its worth, I have no stock or positions with SAM however, as an Elliott Wave fanatic, I'm excited to show the power of such a move. To get ahead of the wave and find potential moves like these (or avoid the downfall that comes after a completed wave cycle), join us on the waves.
NYSE:SAMLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
3
Bitcoin Beary Bad -- Support at $13K Pending!Despite aggressive downside action from $68K, Bitcoin Bears are not yet done with their assault on Bullish traders. Based on price action, to include both confirmations and invalidations, it seems that Bitcoin is currently in a sideways push which could last for upwards of 3 weeks. I anticipate a drop test near $16K, also a pop test near $22K as price action ping pongs to rob more badly leveraged traders. Ultimately, Bitcoin should find its bottom support level between $13K-$15.5K. While I totally expected a drop even before 68K landed, I didn't think it would drop this far. Let's see how the movie pans out. Surf carefully; dont drown.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DigitalSurfTrading
2