Dilma — Trading Ideas on TradingView

EWZ: Viking is back in town I've been working for 5 hours to estimate the trend turns for the next six months. To gain the knowledge to do those five hours are countless. Now, it will not be 100 % accurate in timing. I still have a lot of cycle work to be completed to fine-tune. But it will be quite accurate as I have gone back in time and checked out what EWZ has done in the past. And since the past tells us about the future as history repeats, confidence level is high. Please allow a day or two on each side of the green bars. Price is a different story. I have no clue how to deal with that. But its better to know when price can turn than how high it can go, if you catch my drift?

IBOV - IBOVESPA rompe LTB após 6 anos!Agora é o momento? Ainda não temos uma confirmação precisa de reversão de tendência, mas que é um belo furo na LTB, isso é! Como podem ver no gráfico, passamos por tempos nebulosos desde 2010 onde tivemos uma drástica queda nos preços das commodities e graças a um governo muito competente (PT), "e notem a minha ironia enquanto escrevo", tivemos redução e congelamento de tributos e expansão de credito para o incentivo do consumo. No entanto, como podemos notar sem muito esforço, tudo deu errado. Mas agora em 2016 surge uma nova esperança, após um longo e traumático processo de impeachment, chegamos a reta final da queda da quem gosta de ser chamada de "presidenta" Dima Rousseff. Enfim, surge uma bela oportunidade para os próximos anos, como eu disse no começo, ainda é cedo para termos uma confirmação concreta, mas para tantos como eu que já estão roendo o osso há muito tempo, um pouco de esperança já é muita coisa. Abraço do Jake!

THE FORCE BEHIND BRAZIL'S RECENT BULLISHNESS (ANALYSIS ON EWZ) If you've been paying attention to headlines about Brazil recently, the term "impeachment" seems to be all over the place. But what's really driving prices upwards in the country's stock market? Is it the daily swaying impeachment probability or something else? Today's instrument to be analysed is EWZ, the ETF that seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index. The fund generally invests at least 95% of its assets in the securities of its underlying index and in depositary receipts ("DRs") representing securities in its underlying index. The index, which consists of stocks traded primarily on the BM&FBOVESPA, is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index with a capping methodology applied to issuer weights so that no single issuer of a component exceeds 25% of the underlying index weight, and all issuers with weight above 5% do not cumulatively exceed 50% of the underlying index weight. The fund is non-diversified. (source: finance.yahoo.com) The chart's left side is late October 2014, when president Dilma Rousseff got re-elected. As can be seen, EWZ price has since then maintained a close correlation with the price of other Emerging Market ETFs and Indexes 2015 was a perfect storm for Emerging Markets. With China's slowdown, a commodity crash, the strong dollar, a Fed rate hike, the light at the end of the tunnel was nowhere to be seen. Commodities Many emerging markets depend on commodities like oil, iron and copper in order for their economies to do well. Commodity prices tumbled in 2015, with Crude Oil hitting a 7-year low in December. Oil and other commodities are not set to boom in 2016, but they likely won't tumble as much as they did last year, specially if OPEC agrees on setting production quotas again. China's Slowdown China is transitioning to a consumer-led economy from one led by manufacturing and construction, meaning its demand for all those commodities has plummeted. China has been cutting rates, weakening the currency and pumping money into the economy to counteract the slowdown. Many experts believe China's growth may slow down more in 2016, but not at a faster pace. A more stable China should help the countries that depend on it. Strong Dollar and Rate Hike The good news is that a weak currency lets emerging markets sell products abroad more cheaply, making them more attractive to foreign buyers. That eventually boosts exports and, in turn, economic growth. The bad news is that emerging markets have to pay off some debt in U.S. dollars. In total, there's $3 trillion of emerging market debt denominated in dollars, according to Wells Fargo. As the dollar rallies, that debt gets more expensive to pay back. The rate hike makes the US Bonds more attractive and attract foreign money to the US. This money has to be exchanged into US Dollars and ends up boosting the currency. Many leaders in emerging markets are actually glad the Fed finally raised rates. So much uncertainty surrounded the first rate hike, and now that it's done, that gives emerging markets more clarity. With all this in mind, it's silly to say Dilma's possible impeachment is the main responsible for the upwards drive in Brazil's stock market prices...

The Force Behind Brazil's Recent Bullishness (Analysis on VALE)If you've been paying attention to headlines about Brazil recently, the term "impeachment" seems to be all over the place. But what's really driving prices upwards in the country's stock market? Is it the daily swaying impeachment probability or something else? Today's stock to be analysed is VALE, the Brazilian iron ore producer. The chart's left side is late October 2014, when president Dilma Rousseff got re-elected. As can be seen, Vale's stock price has since then maintained a close correlation with the price of the main product it sells. The analysis gets even more interesting when the stocks of other notable Iron Ore producers are plotted on the chart... Anglo-Australian BHP Billiton and US-Based Freeport McMoRan. So, what's really driving those prices more, Dilma or Iron Ore(rhymed!)? I'll stick with Iron Ore...

PBR is correlated to oil prices, but that's not all...PBR is correlated to oil prices, but that's not all. Out of a selection of other oil majors, PBR underperforms significantly when the starting month of August 2011 is chosen, a date I arbitrarily chose due to launch of a new industrial policy in Brasil (a proxy of changing economic policy). Note, however, work done by my friend, Raphael Geraldelli (related ideas), showing a much closer correlation of PBR to oil prices in a more recent period (). The takeaway here is that although PBR is correlated to oil prices, internal company issues and Brazilian political economy played an important historical role in the stock's price and I believe it will continue to do so moving foreword.

VALE's Update The key points are in the graph. Trade safely.

BVSP all the way down Together with my last chart about the BVSP, this is more of a Swing-Trade leveraged position against this active (BOV11 in IBovespa and BVSP in NYSE), considering the following fundamental key points: * The main stocks are being hammered, some of them: Petrobras, Vale, Sabesp. * Brasil fiscal efforts to keep a good spending balance showed some ugly side effects on the economy. * The Brasil's economy plans to grow by 0.3% this year, which basically means a recession. Basically, in the near term there's no way you can be bullish in this scenario until all the changes on the fiscal politics stabilize the economy and produce long-term growth. It may not even begin this year.