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BTC: leveraged trading games. Discussion & theory.Greetings. Anyone who remembers back when the BTC markets took a dive in November 2017 might be able to recall at that time i set up a "leveraged trading playground" band that we would be playing in for some time. For reference here are the levels that i indicated. Back then i called the green line the "mid line" and i assumed we would actually be going sideways from that point and then waving between 5300 and 3500.. However i see now that my fault was i expected the period of uncertainty to find the bottom later rather than earlier. Looking back i see that the market went near full capitulation and then started from the bottom up... And it would make sense to shake out volatility early in the new region and then go stable and start extracting liquidations after a period of sentiment recovery. It is very easy to see that is the meek moves of recovery and that the candles are very precariously hanging. And i want to take a moment here to relate that one of the core aspects of value derived from crypto is within its profit extraction mechanisms. Many clone coins pop up attempting to provided incentives towards producing some network and database behavior that is supposed to decrease the friction of handling the transfers of contracts, value, and identity. Yet all of these coins suffer from the same type of double edged sword in that if one is using technology that is inherently designed to decrease friction then the capturing of your value for your coin may inherently be difficult. A prime example is that of Mastercoin, the ICO that started it all. It's worth very little now in comparison to the beginning... yet so much value has been made off it's back. With that said i wanted to note here that trading, and extracting profit from market participants, is one of the REAL driving value extraction methods for crypto. I remember years ago, must have been 2012 or 2011, ranting about the death of the dollar and how the crypto would in essence slowly start siphoning out fiat value into crypto value. Traditional market analysts and people with knowledge of international finance will be quick to discard such a fantasy as the scale and scope of it is almost irrelevant and unnecessary (look how abstract the financial capital market already is)... However i think what is important to note is that crypto gains it's value, or at least expresses it's representation of value, by siphoning off fiat. And i do not mean AT ALL that crypto is based "off the dollar" and that it's just another layer on top of the dollar. I mean that the idea of value that exists within the dollar is absorbed into the crypto ecosystem and assists in reflecting the value of it.. similar to how the price of gold doesn't actually mean that the gold is "worth more" but that it can be seen as the weakness of dollar, rather. Understanding as such... we cannot discount the power that price action has to cause profits to be extracted... and we cannot discount the power that these actors have to move the markets so as to induce scenarios to provided trading opportunity. We all know that over the past few months that not much new money has been coming into the exchanges. A lot of this time we have been feeding off of what already was (of course new money is entering in but not a fomo flood of fiat) and rising the total market cap through the buying and selling of Top coins and Alts... Not through a giant inject of fiat (and tether) onto the exchanges like what happened in 2017. We consider the region indicated in the chart above as the "playground" region for the market manipulators within the bear market. We are still within the bear market is my point here, and yes only in crypto can you have a 20% candle for top coins and still consider it "potentially bearish"... I too was caught up in the idea that in summer 2018 we might experience a giant rebound and race back past 20k but then i started seeing how exhausted the funds were and how hard the traders were hit and how they could not continue. No fund of any large amount in its right mind could easily play those moves. I am a believer now that the next bull run will be much greater than 20k and thus we will need to observe a longer period of growth outside of this region to really consider it bull season.. For if you believe that the market purely moved up on positive sentiment alone, and without some hint of manipulation or at least knowledge of price level alteration, then i do believe you are sorely mistaken. And the power to go up represents the power to go down... and we can easily trend upwards into the 8000 whilst still capturing liquidations and juicy trades on movement between 5300-3500. Looking briefly at the volume profile here we can easily see that we are currently on thin ice. The main factor keeping this baby afloat is positive sentiment, not a strong support at this price level. This is a place of waiting... and unless we see a strong sideways develop out that can cause a good support to establish then i do believe we have quite a bit more chop to experience in our push towards 8000 + ... You can consider that the bear market is not over yet, but the bottom is in. We are starting to reach towards the end of the bear market and i believe we are perhaps half way through it, maybe more. But i am still seeing a lot of big shocks to come. However lets disect a bit more what the market conditions currently may be for shorter time frame trading. In the above picture we have selected out three domains with red rectangle. These domains are periods in which we can observe the wave structure inherent in the sentiment patterning. You can see that at first it was highly choppy and volatile... after which the amplitudes died down a bit and we settled into a pattern of more stability with smaller waves and longer periods of sideways. Well. I do believe that there are consequences for this large price spike upwards we have currently had... Yet we need to watch to see what the real case is. 1) In one case we have the option that this massive spike may have broken us out of the current wave forms we were experiencing lately... long periods of stability followed by "1-3% moves" that would keep the market trending upwards. We may have a period now of dramatically increased volatility as the market scrambles to make sense of these sentiment shifting moves. 2) Yet the other case is that we need to look towards the continuation of the prior pattern: stability will continue marching along from this level with only minor 3% swings taking place on the short term (multiple days)... which could easily see us push up towards the higher 5000s and 6000s soon. Perhaps even sooner than expected. On the near term though (next few days) we could easily shoot into 5000s territory. The floating price right now is ripe for movement UP OR DOWN which we can easily see reflected in near equal short term pick ups of leveraged positions. However since i started this article the longs have really went vertical and increased which leaves me believe we will see 5000 fairly soon. A few closing notes here: If we drop down back towards 4000 on the short term we cannot easily know what type of scenario we will be in. We will need to wait until we see how the reaction to this extreme spike plays out. If you are expecting a steep run up back to full bull mode though i want you to know that it is low chance. The bear market is not over yet. We need to clear out these longs and test the gathered bullish sentiment. They don't just get to get slammed freely and then rise again. There is one final test. We need what happened last night to happen after a large sell event, we need a bounce, before we can be certain the bulls are strong enough to pull us out. In the mean time be careful in the alts. You saw how they all dropped nearly 20% when BTC pumped? well if we drop down back even to our safe 4000 level we will see potential drop in the alts in a similar fashion. Never discount the power of the margin gain.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Altcoin_Ninjas
1
Prediction and Discussion: BTCUSDT & The New Pump Overview: We have recently seen this new pump enter into the price action of BTCUSDT. This pump has several important features that show us the underlying structures at work within the market. We break the daily chart down into rectangular regions that indicate a form of behavior that identifies sentiments present in the active trading for those specific time frames. You can see these rectangles are labeled with letters which each indicate the period under which the sentiment phase is present. For this prediction, rather than relying on traditional indicators we are working to develop a better understanding as to the nature of pumps and how they are effecting the near term future prices of interest to day traders. This pump is of importance because it has reached a higher high than the last wave up for BTC, which is the first time that this has happened since the compression down from the All Time High of 2017 / 2018... Price Prediction: Within the next 7 day period we expect to see BTC return to trade at a 7000 level. These motions are to be considered in their potential effects in the Altcoin market. However that discussion is saved for another time. Discussion & Rundown of the Rectangles: We have labeled several rectangular regions. The main focus of this discussion is upon those regions labeled W, P.1 & P.2 Of first consideration is the region P.1 This region represents the expressions of a specific type of trader in the market, jokingly labeled P for Plebs. In this band of activity we consider that most of the trading volume is coming from smaller bag holders. There is hesitation to call them "retail traders" although this term does serve to help grasp what we are looking at. In this P.1 region we see what is the net "potential of market movement" that this category of traders can have in a given time frame. We break down sentiment motions within that band by further rectangles, A B C D E F G ... Since we are dealing with an asset that is almost purely speculative in it's nature it is important to note that tracking sentiment as though the asset were performing an economic function outside of pure speculation can lead to incorrect assumptions about the nature of price movements. Although we can point to history to demonstrate to us trends from other assets and periods in the "traditional market" we take a position in this discussion that there are novel features to the activity of BTC that relate to yet unrealized economic affects. With this understanding we can consider that different levels of traders trade in different ways, which on the surface is obvious but the details are yet to be fully articulated. This leads us to our next rectangle of consideration, W This rectangle is assumed to represent to us the power which large bag holders can have, so called Whales. We have to consider that the whales of BTC are not the types of traders who obsess upon smaller time frames but that their holdings require by nature for them to scale with time in ways that smaller holding amounts cant. In general this breaks down into considering larger time frames and that opportunities exist within the "noise" between these larger moves. It is important to note also that whales compete with each other. No doubt whale traders participate in the "noise" trading of the P region, and indeed many of these sentiment motions are in part created by larger bag holders bringing specific types of influence to the market, however as a general rule the "Plebs" rule the P region. Now thirdly we consider P.2 P.2 is a clone of P.1 and given as a type of ghosting as to the potential swings that BTC can make from it's current position at the time of this writing. We use this as a visual aid that allows us to formulate a type of qualitative risk. However, this can be further broken down quantitatively. The rectangles A B C D E F G each represent a type of "sentiment phase" which is experienced during the general noise behavior of the Plebeian trading. For now we will leave a detailed breakdown of these out of this discussion but they are highlighted to show the role they play in the construction of the P rectangular region. With these considerations all in place we can make a prediction that baring any type of "whale battles" bringing us an extreme drop downwards that the P rectangle trading band will be followed with high probability. Being that this pump actually breaks the high of the prior wave up for BTC, which has not happened yet and It has the highest daily volume since April, we consider that after a period of "consideration" that BTC will, for a time, return to a 7000 level sometime within a 7 day period. Due to the extreme volume of this BTC pump and the generally strong nature of Alts lately to move despite the action of BTC, we see a near term bolstering of Alts bull sentiment entering into the market which will markedly hasten by any motion of BTC back towards a trading level of 7000. On closing note we must remember that there is still a very strong sentiment among several traders to see BTC return to a level below 6000. We cannot discount these players looking to make moves that will take advantage of this BTC pump to find ways to bring the price down. Additionally, we feel that we have entered into a new market phase where the compressing wedge that has been happening over the last year has ended and we are starting to open up. Even if we experience a deep drop the potential sentiment to return us to our current level, the 5500 - 6500 level is a very strong support for BTC due to many reasons beyond sentiment of traders. Good Luck in your Trades Everyone!
by Altcoin_Ninjas
VTC/BTC The big or bust apex (Chart 04 of Training log)Vertcoin/BTC 1 week chart. Vertcoin is approaching a very crucial APEX, with intersections of the current diagonal resistance line, Horizontal support line, Diagonal support line that is still in my eyes valid but has not been tested in a while and a old diagonal support line that would be the final level of support for Vertcoin. Declining Volume means that this current price level is not stimulating buy pressure and at the moment selling pressure seems to be more dominant. I have drawn this conclusion from the declining price levels coincided with the rapid continued divergence of the 7,14 EMA. I have used the 7,14 EMA as a gauge of short term price action due to the nature of the EMA weighting value to the more recent price action and as both the EMA lines are in a decline and diverging, this suggests to me that the price will test this horizontal support line and may breach it. The MACD also on a shorter time frame than usual shows that the standart moving average values for the 7,14 MA have been converging and i had previously drawn them on my chart and they were still converging and about to potentially cross which can be perceived as a bullish signal. Even if the 7,14 MA were to cross i would still consider the other factors of the chart to be of far mroe significance to determine the price moves of VTC. Given that BTC has been declining is USD valuation as of late, and my recent analysis of the BTC chart gives me a solid basis to suggest that BTC will consolidate and then proceed to move up vs USD, I would wager that VTC will be having a period of consolidation around its current satoshi value. However in summary i believe once BTC begins to move upward there will be not enough buying pressure to give VTC the sustained breakout above the resistance line its currently following, and thus we will possibly see VTC coming back to retest old support levels around the 0.0001 and below area.
VShort
by CryptoBigBoss01
6
NeoGas future.How u see it?Im astounded by undervalue of this asset, or i think that way because im just deluded and biased bag holder? :D ,so i want u to help me understand if this main utility tool in NEO ecosystem will be as big as i think it will. I started to accumulate this token by increasing demand and development of antshares/neo, tho i dont see much interest from majority of crypto players ,no matter that this token have such small cap of supply which deflates witch each and every neochain assets transaction or modification(keep in mind that neo icos are popping like shrooms after the good rain).I believe GAS will be more valuable then NEO , not because of x10 lower supply rate but because neo produce gas slowely and hasnt even started to consume it with this day 0 fee on transaction,and lack of movable / interactable ,while neo is governing token GAS is the main player in the ecosystem. So im expecting at least x3 price increase in following months because of new assets in play .What im missing here or im correct and gas is really undervalued with best entry point now and soon we see sudden price spikes after more icos will finish,neon wallet updates for asset holding and exchanges start to list ? Share your thoughts,speculations or biases about this asset and his future P.s im green to Trading view and picture isnt relevant by more than gas price on posting date (and english isnt my native , i learning not just TA now )
G
by Sheo
Bitcoin : Open and contributive discussionBitcoin, since its creation, is globally gaining in value more than any other comparable asset class. Late 2011, one bitcoin was traded at $3 ; now it's over $2700 which represents a +90 000% performance. What is even more remarkable about this crypto-currency is its price pattern . It is evolving in exponential phases , then consolidates slowly. Four major sequences can be spotted easily, and they are described on the main chart of this article. Nevertheless there are many more sub-sequences that are also exponential. The current upside phase is certainly the most impressing because Bitcoin pushed over $1000 and $2000, and seems on track to reach $3000 soon, if not this week. If prices repeat the past magnitude (x17), then Bitcoin could reach 3400$ before declining gently for a consolidation. But it is also different from the previous runs : it lasts longer (6 months for phases II and III ; over 2 years for current phase IV). Is it a sign of strength, or the opposite ? I personally have only little doubts that crypto-currency will become soon or later one of the leading asset classes for investment but also trading purposes on everyday life. However, it is possible that Bitcoin won't be that currency : it seems reasonable to think that an alternative one could take the lead before the real takeoff for many reasons (from marketing, trend effect, or practical specification that make bitcoin obsolete. What I also believe is that this kind of scenario can be identified from price analysis , even though bitcoin should be studied a different way. This article is nothing but an open discussion , thus I invite anyone who has analysis and views about bitcoin and more generally crypto-currencies to share their contribution below .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AlexandreNygal