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Divergencetrading

NFP Bears gathering their troops? or will the Bulls stampede...The past 9 days have been quite interesting for the EUR/USD which has been relentless. Price has been rising like a helium balloon let loose at the park... Bulls have clearly been in control, not only the past 9 days but since the beginning of the year with the exception of the strong pullback in April & May only to bounce for another 700 pip run. I am totally USD bearish across the board as I have been mentioning in my analysis videos for the past few months but like all macro moves, we always have pullbacks along the way and that is why I have been shorting the EUR/USD back from 1.1500+ - 1.1700+ I've given this a lot of room to breathe, more than usual but considering the following technical setup, I'm willing to give the Bears some leeway and potentially show me they'll come through. •Rising Broadening pattern (Where two trendlines start close together only to divergence and expand) - This is a bearish pattern. •Negative Divergence on the MACD, Linear Regression & the RSI. •Price has made a run to the yearly R3 pivot level. (Rare extension) •Last daily candle is a hanging man candlestick (Reversal candle) •Weekly chart has the EUR/USD at the upper band of a polynomial regression channel which calculates for price extremities in the market. There are a few more setups as well but it's too much to describe here and I'd have to show it in a video (Which I plan to do over the weekend) With all of that said... It could all fail lol but seriously speaking... You just can't ask for a better probabilistic setup so whatever happens during NFP... happens. Aside from the technical aspect... I know yearly R2 around 1.1600 was a hotspot for shorts because divergence was at the early stages and taking a short there wouldn't have been a bad idea but we know institutions are in play as well, so above 1.1600 could have been a huge area to run stop losses and margin calls before a potential reversal. 250 pips would be enough to run a large pool of stops and liquidation. IF price is going to reverse here during NFP, I believe late longs and breakout/pullback traders are going to try and buy at the trendline at 1.1660ish but it wont hold and trap them on the other side of the trade. Under that, I can see us pulling back towards 1.1200ish... If the Bears give up and price continues to climb... the original macro target may very well be under way which was 1.2000 - 1.2200 (Based on a Monthly and 3-Month chart analysis) As of this writing the EUR/USD is pretty much completely flat which is expected before the NFP fireworks ahead of July 4th. We'll see what happens tomorrow morning! buckle up! As always, Good luck and Trade Safe! See you post NFP.
Short
by InternalTraderNYC
1
Trading A Divergence Trade (Breakdown) with Pivots and LiquidityTrading divergences was always a problem for me in the past. I did the same thing you did and got it wrong every time. I was trading divergences when i saw them instead of realizing a divergence is a flip of support and resistance levels. I just needed to know where they are. In this video: Internal vs External Pivot divergence confirmation: You can have two types of pivots on your chart. One for long term and one for short term. Using them to confirm short and long term price action is intuitive as youll be able to see the market squeezing on the short term while knowing where your long term price structure exists. Price action to Divergence Confirmation: A divergence on a short term pivot is an indication of short term loss of trend or reversal. If the short term has no divergence but the long term does, you are about to end up with some pretty large price moves. Youll be confirming the divergence by looking for highs, lows, and closes moving the wrong way from current price action. This video will give you a method you can use to draw out your support zone / resistance zone / divergence zone and use them to your advantage. The "Divergence Zone" that you draw out is the very reason why so many people fail at divergences. Bare in mind that when you have a divergence, support and resistance are on the WRONG sides as their normally are so you'll learn here how to find those zones as well. Then in the end of the video ill show you how to use lower timeframes to confirm the new move of the market. Thanks, everyone. For coming through to the CoffeeShop.
CME:6J1!Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
2
S&P500 & US30 Active DivergenceDivergence does not always have to be observed through the lens of a lagging indicator. Closes do provide powerful signals as to when a move is likely to reverse direction. They also allow us to enter with a smaller risk. Lets first compare the previous swing lows marked out on both charts (dotted orange horizontal line) on the 20th Dec 2024. Zoom in on the white arrows! What do you see with the closes? Now focus in on the S/R zone in purple. Notice that the block width is created from the highest high and the highest low of the same swing. These are very important inflection points from which to compare closes when observing divergence between both instruments. Now observe the yellow arrows!! What do you see with the closes when comparing the S/R zone in purple? Now look at the yellow UPWARD diagonal median line of both purple pitchforks . have they both touched the same median line? Yes or No? perhaps another line confirming divergence? As an additional confirmation the market has touched the upper line of both light blue DOWNWARD pitchforks on both instruments with the current candle Lets see if we get the reversal. Cheers
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by inflectionpointtrader
What is Divergence?Divergence in trading occurs when the price of an asset moves in the opposite direction of a technical indicator. This mismatch indicates that the momentum behind the price action may be weakening, often suggesting a potential reversal. By learning to spot divergence, traders can anticipate market changes, either as a reversal in trend (regular divergence) or a trend continuation (hidden divergence). Types of Divergence Regular Divergence Hidden Divergence 1. Regular Divergence Regular divergence is a classic form that suggests a potential trend reversal. It happens when the price action and an oscillator (like RSI or MACD) display conflicting information, often indicating that the current trend may be losing strength. Types of Regular Divergence: Bullish Regular Divergence: Occurs when the price makes lower lows, but the indicator makes higher lows. This suggests a potential reversal to the upside as the selling momentum weakens. Bearish Regular Divergence: Occurs when the price makes higher highs, but the indicator forms lower highs. This indicates potential downside momentum, often preceding a downtrend. How to Identify Regular Divergence: Use an oscillator such as the RSI, MACD, or stochastic indicator. Look for situations where the price action forms new highs or lows, while the oscillator forms opposite lows or highs. Confirm the trend by observing the price trendlines to determine the type of regular divergence (bullish or bearish). Trading Regular Divergence: Bullish Regular Divergence: When you identify bullish regular divergence, consider entering a long position once the price shows signs of reversal, like a bullish engulfing candle or another bullish reversal pattern. Bearish Regular Divergence: For bearish regular divergence, a short position may be taken once you confirm a bearish reversal pattern, such as a bearish engulfing candle or shooting star formation. Example: If the price of a stock is making higher highs but the RSI is making lower highs, this is a bearish regular divergence. You could consider shorting the asset or closing long positions as a precaution, anticipating a potential trend reversal. 2. Hidden Divergence Hidden divergence indicates potential trend continuation. It suggests that although there may be a pullback, the primary trend will likely resume. Types of Hidden Divergence: Bullish Hidden Divergence: Occurs when the price forms higher lows, but the indicator makes lower lows. This pattern signals that the uptrend is likely to continue. Bearish Hidden Divergence: Occurs when the price makes lower highs, but the oscillator makes higher highs, indicating a potential continuation of a downtrend. How to Identify Hidden Divergence: Observe the trend direction of the price. Hidden divergence typically appears during pullbacks in a strong trend. Use the oscillator (RSI, MACD, etc.) and compare the highs and lows formed by both the price and indicator. Confirm the pattern: if the price and indicator form opposing highs or lows, it may indicate hidden divergence. Trading Hidden Divergence: Bullish Hidden Divergence: Enter a long position after identifying bullish hidden divergence, especially if the primary trend is upwards and the oscillator is showing a lower low. Bearish Hidden Divergence: A short position can be considered when bearish hidden divergence is identified, and the primary trend is downwards, with the oscillator showing a higher high. Example: Suppose an asset’s price makes higher lows in an uptrend, but the RSI makes lower lows. This indicates bullish hidden divergence, suggesting that the pullback might end, and the uptrend is likely to continue. Enter a long position, placing a stop loss below the recent swing low to manage risk. Indicators Used for Identifying Divergence Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI measures the strength and speed of price movement, making it ideal for identifying overbought and oversold conditions. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): MACD tracks the difference between two moving averages of the price and can be used to detect shifts in momentum. Stochastic Oscillator: This oscillator helps detect potential turning points by comparing the closing price to the range over a set period. Each of these indicators helps identify divergence differently. For example: If RSI or Stochastic is diverging from price action, it may indicate that momentum is waning. MACD can be useful to spot both regular and hidden divergences, especially on larger timeframes. How to Trade Divergence Confirm Divergence: Use divergence to identify a potential reversal or continuation pattern, but confirm it with additional signals such as candlestick patterns or volume analysis. Set Entry Points: Wait for a price action signal (e.g., a candlestick pattern) in the direction indicated by the divergence. A bullish divergence might signal a buying opportunity after a bullish candlestick, while a bearish divergence could indicate a selling opportunity after a bearish pattern. Use Stop Loss Orders: Place a stop loss slightly below or above recent highs or lows to manage risk. For example, in bullish divergence, place a stop loss below the swing low to protect against downside risk. Set Profit Targets: Use support and resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, or moving averages to set profit targets. Tips for Successful Divergence Trading Combine with Other Indicators: Use moving averages or trendlines to confirm the overall trend direction. Choose Longer Timeframes for Stronger Signals: Divergence on longer timeframes (e.g., daily or weekly) tends to produce stronger signals than shorter timeframes (e.g., 15-minute or hourly). Don’t Trade Divergence in Choppy Markets: Divergence is more effective in trending markets. Avoid using divergence in low-volume or range-bound conditions, as it could result in false signals. Stay Aware of False Signals: Not all divergences result in profitable trades. Always use risk management tools, such as stop losses and position sizing, to minimize potential losses. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Education
by Crypto4light
EURUSD - Technical Analysis [Long Setup]🔹 EURUSD Analysis on 4H chart - The current Trend is BEARISH - There is BULLISH divergences - Reversal pattern is present which is falling wedge 🔹 Trade Plan For 1HR - Entry Level = 1.08750 - Stop Loss = 1.08339 - TP1 = 1.09170 - TP2 = 1.09653 🔹 Risk Management - First TP is 1:1 - Second TP is 1:2 🔹 How to Take Trade? - Only risk 2% of your portfolio - Take 1% risk entry with 1:1 RR - Take 1% risk entry with 1:2 RR Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea! ✌🏼
Long
by Bountysoul
ETH - The Bullish & Bearish CaseToday we take a look at ETH and lay out a variety of trade ideas. MONTHLY: From the Monthly perspective, ETH remains very Bullish. Essentially, going long ETH anywhere at or below the low of the Monthly MAC is a legitimate spot to buy. The target based on the Monthly chart is around 3,400 (approximately 30% above current price level). From an investment perspective, this is a great area to go long ETH. WEEKLY: From the Weekly perspective, ETH remains Bearish, as we have not had a confirmed bullish trend change. Right now, ETH is trading at the Weekly MAC high, which is a legitimate place to look for new short entries, or to take profits from any longs taken at recent weekly lows. There is currently H6 bearish divergence setup, but not triggered. If it triggers, I will be shorting ETH to a target of the Weekly MAC low (2,337). DAILY: From the Daily perspective, ETH remains Bearish. However, we are getting a potential bullish trend change (but not triggered/confirmed). There is H1 bearish divergence setting up right now, and if it triggers, the short trade target would be the Daily MAC low at 2,421. As you can see, if you are an investor, the current price levels are reasonable areas to load up to the long side. However, the Weekly and Daily are still bearish until bullish confirmation. Daily is in the process of confirming bullish, but not yet. Day trades and shorter term swing trades to the short side are still valid. Have a great week.
by Tradius_Trades
How to REALLY Trade Divergences (One of My Favorite Entries)This tutorial might be short, but it is packed with potent information on how to REALLY trade divergences. Divergences are one of the BEST ways to catch market reversals. However, from what I have seen, most people do not have a real process for determining when a divergence is actually confirmed/triggered, and then how to determine targets based on the divergence setup. In other words, most people don't have a plan for trading divergence. This video will give you a full plan (Setup/Trigger/Follow Through) for trading divergences. I give full credit to Jake Bernstein, as this is a concept that I learned from him. He is one of the all time greats, and very worth your time to check out. I hope you found this video insightful. Have a great week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by Tradius_Trades
3
Apple - How I'm Looking to Trade Apple This Week Monthly & Weekly MAC strategy suggests dips into the Weekly &/or Monthly MAC low are good setup areas for going long. Essentially, I'm looking to buy the dip if we get a price move into the levels noted in the video. I would not just be buying the MAC lows. I would be looking for entry triggers on my entry timeframes in those areas. I also point out that there are some Monthly/Quarterly bearish divergences forming, but nowhere near confirmation, so bulls need not worry. In short, I'm looking to buy the dip on Apple. Have a great weekend.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Tradius_Trades
2
15% to 35% Upside Ahead for Corn (Divergence Strategy)Corn recently has had the monthly bullish divergence confirmed with Septembers monthly close. This has major implications for corn, as I anticipate corn to now trade up at least 15% from current prices, up to a max move of approximately 35%. Monthly divergence triggers such as this are signals that the prudent trader must pay attention to. This does not mean I anticipate this market to go straight up from here. However, it does mean that, in my opinion, dips are for buying in the Corn market until we reach these upside targets. Have a great week.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
15% to 30% Upside Ahead for Soybean Meal (Divergence Strategy)Soybean Meal recently confirmed the monthly bullish divergence with Septembers candle close. This is a significant signal that prudent traders should pay close attention to. What this signal implies is that there is a minimum 15% move to the upside from current price ahead for Soybean Meal. The high end target is a 30% upside move. This does not mean this market is going to go straight up from here. In my opinion, dips are for buying in the Soybean Meal market until we reach these upside targets. Have a great week.
CBOT:ZM1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
30% to 60% Upside Coming for Natty (Divergence Strategy)A powerful monthly bullish divergence just confirmed on natty. We see that the CCI had a monthly close which confirmed the bullish divergence setup. In this video I review how to determine targets with this strategy, and how to determine your risk. I anticipate a minimum 30% rally from current prices for natty, possibly heading up 60% from here. This doesn't mean this market won't have a pullback in the meantime. In my opinion, pullbacks are for buying until these price targets are reached. If you have any questions about this strategy, feel free to shoot me a message. Have a great week.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
18
BTC ANALYSIS🔮 #BTC Analysis 💰💰 As we saw that there was a very bullish move in #BTC. Now we expect a correction in #BTC. Also there is a bearish divergence in RSI. We will see a correction first after that we it will again continue to rise. 🔖 Current Price: $65700 ⏳ Target Price: $62700-61450 ⁉️ What to do? - We have marked some crucial levels in the chart. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits in #BTC. Keep your eyes on the chart, observe trading volume and stay accustom to market moves.🚀💸 #BTC #Cryptocurrency #Correction #DYOR
Short
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
1
SOYBEANS - Are We Close to a Major Bottom? Cycles Say YES.Here is what I am currently watching for SOYBEANS. -We need to be aware that there is a major bullish divergence setup (not trigger) developing on the quarterly & monthly charts. We need to pay close attention to this setup, because if triggered/confirmed, it implies a massive move up for Soybeans would be on the horizon. -Interestingly, the Weekly chart has confirmed bullish divergence. The first target (1090) has not yet been hit, but in my opinion, it looks probable that Soybeans will hit that target (and possibly go as high as the second target (1179). This implies that I believe Soybeans is likely to rally at least 5% in the near future, and possibly rally as much as 10% from current price levels. -I will be aggressive with taking profits on any short setups that present, due to the bullish weekly divergence that has triggered. -Utilizing the Weekly MAC & Valuation methods, I note that this market is in an area where we can look for H6/Daily short trades. As mentioned in previous paragraph, I will utilize more aggressive targets. -The cycles for Soybeans...wow, they are quite something. Decennial cycle suggests significant low being put in, APZ's suggest major low around October 4th, major 5 year cyclical low RIGHT NOW. Other temporary and permanent blended cycles suggest a major low right now. Composite of the 3 most similar years of price action also suggest a major low could happen soon, with a major rally to March 2025. -A combination of the cycles and the major timeframe bullish divergences have me leaning somewhat towards calling a possible major bottom in the Soybeans market. I would prefer to see commercials COT positioning support this idea, which makes me think maybe we get another nice selloff into the August lows before the real bottom is in. But time will tell.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tradius_Trades
META - Still Bullish, But Major Sell Signal LoomingHere is what I am watching on META. -Like many of the other high flying stocks in the US, the Quarterly, Monthly & Weekly charts are flashing divergence sell setups. Bulls need not be too worried yet, as these divergence sell setups have not yet confirmed. However, the astute trader must be aware that these setups are looming, because if they confirm, they imply a minimum 15% move to the downside for Meta. -We are bullish on any pullbacks into the 446 to 495 range (Monthly & Weekly MAC lows). These are considered Buying opportunities and valid areas to look for entry triggers on entry timeframes. -Cycles suggest a cyclical high right around now, heading into a significant cyclical low in early to mid October (possibly into November). I'd like to see this cycle play out to have price trade down into the Monthly/Weekly MAC lows, where we will be ready to hunt entry triggers to the long side.
NASDAQ:METALong
by Tradius_Trades
Amazon - Buying Pullbacks & Cyclical High Expected SoonHere is what I am watching on Amazon. -We need to be aware that there is bearish divergence setting up on the quarterly, monthly & weekly charts. HOWEVER, this divergence is not yet confirmed, and is therefore not actionable trade intel at the present moment. We need to monitor these divergences, because if they confirm, they imply significant price moves in Amazon share price. -MAC strategy for the Quarterly, Monthly & Weekly charts remain bullish. Any pullbacks into the bottom of the MAC are BUY opportunities. I do not blindly buy the bottom of the channels, but utilize lower timeframe entry techniques at these levels to trigger into a position. We are still BULLISH Amazon. -Cycles suggest that Amazon could put in a cyclical high any time between now and October 10th, before putting in a major cyclical low at the end of October. I would like to see this play out to provide us with nice buy opportunities at the bottom of the MAC's.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Tradius_Trades
Google - Looking For Sell Triggers Around 171This video provides an overview of the things that I am watching for Google right now. -We need to monitor the quarterly, monthly & weekly divergences that are currently setup, but not yet confirmed. These are not actionable right now, but they definitely need our attention. If confirmed, they imply some very significant moves in this market. -We can see that the Monthly is still bullish, and we had a monthly MAC entry confirm on the Daily on September 13th. This trade still has not hit its targets, with the first being 169.69 (what a great number). The second target being 180. I would not be surprised to see Google trade up to 169.69 sometime soon. -The Weekly chart is confirmed bearish for the MAC strategy. What this means is that any rallies into the weekly MAC high are opportunities to sell on the H6 chart. I'll be looking for sell triggers if price trades into the 171 level (Weekly MAC high). -Threw in some cycles, for fun. Have a great week.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by Tradius_Trades
1
NVDA - Still Bullish, But Major Potential Sell Signal LoomingThis week in NVDA I am paying attention to the following: -On the monthly timeframe, we see that there is a significant bearish divergence setup forming. This has not yet triggered, though, so the bulls can relax (for now). However, in 7 days when the Monthly candle closes, we need to pay close attention to the CCI divergence. If it confirms, it implies a MAJOR bearish correction for NVDA is on the horizon. -But in the meantime, everything is all systems go for the bulls. If you trade based on the Monthly, any pullbacks into the $88 region (Monthly MAC low) would be satisfactory spots to look for Buy triggers on the Daily timeframe. The Williams Acc/Dis is positioned well above its 57 period MA, which means we should look to buy any pullbacks into the low of the MAC. -Weekly analysis also implies all is good for the bulls. I will look for Buy triggers on the 6H chart if price pulls back into the $107 region (Weekly MAC low). -For fun, I throw some cyclical analysis into the mix. We see that NVDA has a strong seasonal cycle for an upmove from early October into November. Thank you for reading. Enjoy your week.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Tradius_Trades
10
Apple - High & Intermediate Term AnalysisToday, we look at Apple utilizing a variety of techniques: Divergence, MAC & Cycles. We need to keep an eye on the quarterly, monthly & weekly bearish divergences that are occurring. They have not yet triggered, so bulls don't have to worry (yet). But we must keep our eyes on these divergences, because if they trigger, they imply significant downside ahead for Apples share value. We take a look at the MAC and see that there is a case to be made for some further upside this week, and based on todays state of the indicators, longs are favored on any pullbacks to the MAC on the Daily chart. Cycles show a bit of a mixed bag of possibilities. I'm most interested in the Decennial pattern and the APZ's. Let me know if you have any questions.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Tradius_Trades
20% to 40% Dip Coming for Microsoft?DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational & entertainment purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to be involved with this market. Trading involves significant risk, do your own due diligence. A concerning sign for Microsoft bulls triggered a few weeks ago. We saw the DPO divergence confirmed. Price targets to the downside of this confirmation imply a 20% to 40% dip is coming for Microsoft. Do you think Microsoft is heading for a dump? I do. See you down there.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Tradius_Trades
EURUSD - Technical Analysis [Short Setup]🔹 EURUSD Analysis on 1HR chart - The current Trend is BULLISH - there is Bearish divergences -Rising Wedge reversal pattern is form 🔹 Trade Plan - Entry Level = 0.67295 - Stop Loss = 1.11500 - TP1 = 1.11030 - TP2 = 1.10790 🔹 Risk Management - First TP is 1:1 - Second TP is 1:2 🔹 How to Take Trade? - Only risk 2% of your portfolio - Take 1% risk entry with 1:1 RR - Take 1% risk entry with 1:2 RR Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea! ✌🏼
Short
by Bountysoul
2