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Dluginacci

EURCAD just refreshes itself for the Bull partyIn my eyes there is some Bull party about to come and the EURCAD pair is just refreshing itself. So, I am not only throwing out theories but also try to justify it in the easiest, technical form possible. Now I do take fundamental events into consideration but only as such as they give an impuls but not set the agenda. If you are a fundamental trader and don't like 'drawn' pictures you may as well step away now as it is about to become really technical ... 1. Overall Uptrend First obvious factor that speaks for my setup is the overall bullish trend - clearly marked as a green channel on my chart, with an upper and lower edge. Currently we are crawling along the lower end without 'hurting' or even smashing it. That's a good sign. However, the price shouldn't deflate here but get a move on pretty soon to not let me hanging and look like a wet sock! So taking the trend channel as a first indicator we are looking pretty good and aiming for 'at least' 1.6200 (recent high) if not higher! 2. Ichimoku Cloud Right, before you can even think about it: I see and know that the Ichimoku on the daily timeframe is negative. Fair enough. However, if you want to trade a daily timeframe you should look on the Ichimoku on the weekly period to get an idea of the overlaying trend - et voila: Bullish! I am only looking for entry signals on the daily to trade the weekly, so if you want to trade for example H4 you should look at D1 to get an idea if you should look at long or short options. 3. Elliot Wave I wouldn't call myself an Elliot wave expert but I do know what I am looking at and especially what I am looking for. So in this case I am not 100% sure if I got the count right but I am not looking for accuracy but if I am generally in the right direction. Taking both my first points into account I am pretty confident that I am on the right track. No surprises Just to be on the safe side: If I, however, got the whole call wrong I'll be out as soon as we drop through the current bottom area. If this is the case, please forget all the above you have just read ;) Like what you've read? Visit me on my website or Facebook !
Long
by Dluginacci
EUR/USD Starts New DownmoveThe good mood from the end of last year faded away and left us, once again, with a strong resistance at 1.1000. And from here the misery starts. It really doesn't look good for the Euro against the USD as the odds are long that the EUR finds its way out the undertow of the negative trend anytime soon. I use it as an opportunity to look for short entries and with today's analysis I explain you why I think it could be profitable to enter a short trade by the end of the day. Read the full analysis here: dluginacci.com
Short
by Dluginacci
EUR/USD - The Roaring Of BearsDear traders, in my last analysis I indicated that the bears (should) get ready - slowly but steady. And here they come, roaring and shouting, showing off how fast they can pull the rug out from under the bulls feet. So where are we at? Is It A Trap? Based on my analysis and expectation: No! It fits into the big picture and goes conform with my DAX30 analysis as well. Sure, there's always a chance it rockets upwards out of nowhere but based on the technical and fundamental situation it's very unlikely. What's The Story? To keep it short and crisp: I think the final move/impulse towards parity is made/in progress. Game Plan I have already opened a short position in all my accounts today but aim to get a few more - build a pyramid as we move on. Godspeed and happy trading. Comments welcome. Cheers!
Short
by Dluginacci
20
DAX30 - Ready, Set, Go?Dear Traders, there has been happening a lot since my last DAX30 analysis eleven days ago. I have closed my short positions with some profits and kept quite until the beginning of this week, waiting to bring my long trades into the race. If you remember, I revised my initial expectation from 'call' to 'put' as I expected the correction not be finished - or better, it was just about to start. The situation changed a bit which meant the (blue) 4 wasn't complete at this stage and had to be fully developed before we could look at any DAX30 long ideas. The Question Now Is Was this correction enough to complete the (blue) 4? There is a good chance that this is the case as the (Elliot wave) fits perfectly - and so do the indicators. But, there is still enough room for the DAX30 to correct. If you remember, I was initially talking about the area around 11,500. It's A Matter Of Sink Or Swim To put it in a nutshell, the German DAX30 has a perfect chance to take it from here, marching up, direction 13,000. However, if the latest (yellow) 1 gets touched (~ 11,803) the bullish scenario is off the table - for now. Everything above that is perfectly fine. Bottom Line In terms of trading this is a no-brainer. The chance/risk ratio is outstanding, if you are looking for 11,800 as a potential SL and 13,200 for a target. I take the risk and give it a shot. Therefore I have opened a long position in all my public and private accounts. Godspeed!
FX:GER30Long
by Dluginacci
2
WTI CRUDE OIL - It's Just A CorrectionDear traders, the most of us were hoping the oil price would drop forever, well at least those of us who drive a car or have an oil based central heating. But as the commodity market is no exception and no one-way system it had to stop at one point. So it did. The oil price is rising again and the question now is: Was that it? No more cheap fuel at the gas station? The Answer Is No At least not for the next couple of weeks. The price has to recover from its huge drop of the past few months. This massive drop is considered to be a (blue) wave 3 - the longest wave of all five of an impulse. However, as we all know four follows a three and the 4 is a correction move, before the initial (trend) move continues with the final 5. To Make A Long Story Short The current correction can last a few days or even weeks. A sensible target area for the (blue) 4 would be between $60 - $70a barrel. However, the overlying trend is still strong bearish, so it is just a matter of time until the price turns soutwards for the final wave 5. Hence, you will be able to go to the gas station with a smile once again. Information I have opened long positions on WTI Crude Oil on all my public accounts, as well as a Brent Oil long position in my private account. Cheers!
FX:USOILLong
by Dluginacci
1
DAX30 - The Situation Has Changed A BitDear traders, if you follow my analyses and my social media channels regularly you know that I was talking about two scenarios regarding the DAX30 since the (blue) four was seemed to be completed: 1) We stick to the plan and finish the job without any detour. At this stage I was talking about 12,300 as a milestone - which I finally got. I closed all my long positions, waiting for something to happen as it still wasn't enough to be a (blue) 5 but the market seemed to be wobbly on its feet. So I had a few options on the table and thought a stretched (blue) 3 may be one of them - obviously I was wrong but that brings me to my second scenario which is, at this stage, more likely; 2) We take a detour below 12,000 as I mentioned on Facebook a few days ago. Strictly speaking, it can actually take us anywhere between 11,500 and 11,200. Anyway, in this case the (blue) 4 was not complete but is now in the making! This scenario makes total sense and wouldn't even harm the overlying, bullish trend of the DAX30. It's the long overdue correction in a very overheated market. Being Short In A Bullmarket The bottom line is that the market is, overall, still bullish even if we go to the maximum of this correction which would be in the region of 11,200. However, I took my chances and opened a short position yesterday in my Alvanda Mercury Account - and only in this account as this trade is counter-trend and therefore even more risky. My Conclusion This correction does the market more good than bad. My target (for the blue 5) still stands: 13,200. Cheers!
FX:GER30Short
by Dluginacci
6
DAX30 - Final Wave Is In Full SwingTwo weeks ago I have posted my last analysis about the DAX30, expecting the (red) 2 to be completed. If you remember, I was expecting two possible scenarios, whereof the second scenario became reality. However, the (blue) 4 seems to be complete at this stage and the next and final stage, the (blue) 5 is in full swing. Right, for all of you who are not really familiar with the Elliot Wave Theory a quick crash course: A (trend) move contains 5 waves, from which 3 (1,3 and 5) are so called impulse waves. The waves 2 and 4 are always corrections and point against the overlaying trend. Now, every impulse wave, i.e. wave 5 is build up in five smaller waves, whereof these are again build up by even smaller waves and so on. A Good Example Is The Current move As you can see the (blue) 4, which was a correction, is finished and is building up a (blue) 5 - which again contains five waves - in this case red - and the red contains the orange and the orange the grey - and this is where I stop because I don't want to atomise it. Anyway, I think you get the idea when you look at the chart. Bottom Line My target from two weeks ago still stands: 12.300 and from there we go. There's a good chance that the price is going to excess that target level but if so, be careful! A big a-b-c correction will be due as soon as the (blue) five is complete. I have opened a DAX30 long position on all my public accounts after the (orange) 2 was finished, aiming for the 12.300. Looks good so far.
FX:GER30Long
by Dluginacci
4
EUR/USD - A Matter Of TimeSo far the EUR/USD went according to plan - except the 4th wave. This may got some of us stumbling. Anyway, I do think it's completed now! So what do I expect to happen next? Based on my analysis and all the inidicators that come with it, the story is crystal clear: We are going down. The initial target of 1.02/00 still stands (based on EW counts) but we may not get there in one straight move. There are several support levels in the way (i.e. 1.0500) that can potentially act as a platform for new bullish attacks. However, the overall picture is strong bearish and it stays that way, until the price doesn't close above 1.1800. Taking the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo into consideration there is a wonderfully, strong bearish Tenkan Sen/Kijun cross coming up. The price is also below the Alligator which confirms it to the extend. Bottom line I currently have a short position running in most of my accounts and am not planning to close it anytime soon.
Short
by Dluginacci
DAX30 - Where are we at?The last few weeks went like a clockwork. Basically every target zone got hit, every support held and the price action matched perfectly into the overall image of my Analysis. Now, since we have reached an ATH (all-time-high) at ~12.222 the price consolidated - which again - fit perfectly into my Elliot Wave count, as a small correction was overdue. On this note please don't forget that an overheated market is not automatically an occasion to sell! So what do I expect to happen? Basically there are two scenarios from which I think one is more realistic than the other: 1. A-B-C correction is finished In this case the DAX30 will break out of the short-term negative trend (red line) and continue it's ride direction North very soon. From there we, once again, go into a 1-2-3-4-5 count which will probably end at around 12.300/20. As the indicators back this theory I think this is the more likely event to happen. 2. A-B-C is not finished, YET In this scenario we will have to face a lower low which can be projected near to the last 4 (blue 4). A correction of this extent would not harm the still bullish environment in the DAX30. Bottom line I currently have a long position open in most of my accounts, aiming for the 12.300 level.
FX:GER30Long
by Dluginacci
9
DAX Completes Wave Early And Starts ABC CorrectionThe day before yesterday, on Sunday, I have posted my latest analysis about the DAX30 (GER30) index, talking about the current waves 4 and 5 (green) and a possible target at 11.701. The expected wave 4 (green) was pretty much spot on, the wave 5 wasn't really but I managed to detect the early completion before it was too late! Unfortunately the wave has been completed early yesterday with a high at 11.606 which led me to close all existing DAX30 long positions in all my accounts with some profit. So What's Next? It pretty much looks like that the index has started its a-b-c correction, which could easily bring us down to 11.200 (former wave 4). However, I will not trade this correction setup but wait it to be completed and look for new long entries. General speaking the correction actually comes handy and fits into the big picture. The Dow Jones was already struggeling with its high-rising and didn't give the DAX much space to the top. Say what you want but they are 'brothers' and generally head into the same direction. Anyway, I keep my hands still on this one until the correction is finished.
FX:GER30
by Dluginacci
DAX30 According To PlanLast Thursday (05-03-2015) I have signalised that the Dax30 (Ger30) is about to complete a small 1,2,3,4,5 wave (red) and a medium 3 (green). Target was 11.658 - actual high was 11.599. Based on that consider the red 5 and green 3 as completed. Next on the agenda is the green 4 and, obviously, the green 5, which will also be the blue 3. I expect the green 4 to be completed somewhen next week (11.200 must not be underpriced), which will automatically activate a new target (for green 5 and blue 3) of around 11.700. The long position I have opened on Thursday have been closed in profit (11.568) in all my accounts. I will wait for a new entry level and trade the green 5 (blue 3). Cheers
FX:GER30Long
by Dluginacci