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Dollarmilkshake

$DXY about to hit THE WALL?Love TVC:GOLD , stocks, real estate? Well I'm about to make your day. TVC:DXY is strolling into historic resistance at 115. On the WEEKLY timeframe, we have two conjoining forces: A major resistance from the '85 high of 160 (in yellow), and a triple top high of 118 during the early '00s(in yellow). We're also riding the bottom support of 104 in our current rising channel. Fundamentals: The Fed and US fiscal policy will face pressure to weaken the dollar to strengthen exports, boost GDP. This means inflation isn't going away and any rate cuts are going to be like tossing gasoline on a bonfire. Dollar milkshake fans will be shocked to see flight to the dollar fading, as harder money like Gold plays a larger role in sovereign bank collateralizations, trade imbalances. The assumption that the US will remain the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry may well flip by the end of the decade as multipolar alternatives become more attractive and the debt markets increasingly realize the US debt is beyond repayable (in today's dollars). This is going to provide a tail-wind to all #antifiats, chief among them: GOLD, Bitcoin, and any stock with pricing power. I also see real-estate doing well as foreign US treasuries holders (like China, India, Japan) decide they'd rather bid up US homes, commercial property than earn a pretend yield on terrible debt instruments.
TVC:DXYShort
by dawsonMoonshot
Quick post: Simple and Powerful Adam and Eve Pattern on DXYThe US Dollar index is one of the most important indexes one can watch to position themselves for long term moves in a wide range of markets. There is its role in currency markets, US equities, bond, anti-fiats like precious metals and cryptocurrencies. For a basic primer: www.investopedia.com As a quick post this is simply looking at the basics of chart formations and not going deeper. No indicators used. The Adam and eve reversal pattern can be found as a type of double top or double bottom. Here it is a double bottom. The targeting for this pattern is roughly the 0.786 fib level which falls within the previous high bull trap. I do not see much further upside. Any over-performance would probably be a double top around 115 Long Term the Dollar has a lot of volatility to go through. Way more than people expect. The fact remains that the dollar index is in a decades long falling wedge with many upside targets yet to be reached. I discovered this wedge independently and I don't know of anyone who shared the draw publicly before me. The allegations of dollar death are going to appear really accurate when the dollar is back around 70 before going up above 140. But that is in decades to come. My trades: I have taken of my margin long positions in crypto for a while with the exception of one where I was stopped out. I have margin short Matic performing quite well. I am suffering a painful loss of USD value from my Optimism position and having the Matic short perform is helping me hold that position. Future trades When this DXY move goes to target it will be time to look for crypto entries. A little physical silver due to how it strengthens my hands. It should be on discount after a wee bit of a dollar pump.
TVC:DXYLong
by This_Guhy
60
DXY to fall bullishly (W bottom Dollar Milk Shake scenario)Falling wedges are generally very bullish structures that have targets at the hight of the wedge. If a falling wedge is on a flagpole then the target of the wedge is going to be a flagpole extension. But price often don't go straight up. Having price action retest lows is very normal. Having price action retest a trendline that was resistance and turn it into support is very normal as well. If DXY does either one of those it can form the the W pattern I think can form from this set up. This chart is rather zoomed out to show 40 years of data. The RSI is clearly got some bearish divergence and has come ouf of the orange macro wedge into a micro black rising wedge. If price came out in a channel rather than a wedge, I would be a bit less bearish on DXY. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself when it comes to forecasting too far out but calling for a retrace seems to be a very safe call. That retrace falling to the gray box or the wedge resistance is also very safe. Calling for the RSI to chop its way downward to below 30 also seems a very safe call. My linked ideas show some very bold calls on DXY that were contrary to the broader market. I was one of the first people to publicly draw dxy in a falling wedge on the log chart. Please see the linked ideas for several of those ideas. I was also one of the first to publicly chart the falling wedge on bitcoin on the standard scale I was one of the first to publicly call for a inverted head and shoulders on ETHBTC The point off all that? I have a pretty good eye for seeing how different scenarios can play themselves out. When I started with Tradingview I didn't have the emotional discipline to trade properly them and that is still coming along. The DXY Dollar milkshake W scenario would cause the most pain to the most people who are not zoomed out and able to catch this transformation. I can't get caught out like that. And of course, I have been disastrously wrong before. Especially in cryto. But DXY moves much slower than crypto so there is more time to plan, zoom in and zoom out. I have tagged this neutral because I don't see a direct dxy trade I would want to do now. Indirectly I think the equities and crypto will go crazy for a couple of years and I want to benefit from a dxy reversal
TVC:DXY
by This_Guhy
7
Monthly Hidden Bullish Divergence Supports DXY Upside MoveA quick post with wide-reaching implications. I have distorted the charts to really zoom in on the hidden bearish divergence. The price action has a higher low but the MACD and RSI have set lower lows. That action increases the probability that we will see a sustained MACD cross and a uptrend that could last a 18-24 months. A zoom into the weekly time frame shows a double bottom. There was some chop going into the double bottom so I am not surprised by the chop I currently see at the neckline. That move completing to target puts DXY around 98. Predicting what will happen in the markets is always confounded by central banks so I hesitate to forecast too far out. If DXY is strengthening that is relative to a basket of currencies. Those other countries may experience increased dollar demand due to their dollar denominated debt, and that just sees the dollar go even higher. The initial move in the dollar could see US equities sell off as they are dollar denominated and other countries market participants cash out to meet their dollar demand. There is also the usual squeeze on the store of value trades/investments in silver, gold and for some, bitcoin. We get into dollar milk shake theory by Brent Johnson out of Santiago Capital but that is a big can of worms to open up. Quite simply I am just preparing for a DXY move to the upside.
TVC:DXYLong
by This_Guhy
3
Technically, anyone short the Dollar (DXY) is a madmanThis chart is pretty simple. There is a decades long falling wedge and price action has broken out of the wedge and spend 4 years retesting the wedge as support. After that we got some lift-off and DXY was rejected by the 200 quarter SMA and had a pull back. Currently price actions has set a higher low and is finding support on the 100 quarter SMA. In general, the longer it takes a falling wedge to play out the more reliable it will be when it comes to target setting. The two targets are very simple, they are the height of the wedge from initial break out (shown) or retest (not shown) or the Hight of the wedge. I suspect once price action confirms a whole candle body above the 200 quarter SMA we will have about 5-7 years of insanity as DXY appreciates over 60%. Down below we also see the effective federal funds rate is also in a falling wedge. I have been watching this for years and have been calling for negative real interest rates for year and perhaps even nominal negative interest rates (which didn't appear) and then a massive increase in interest rates. The dollar and interest rates pumping at the same time sets up some very interesting (and painful) economic conditions. The implications of this are very far reaching. But in short a lot of stuff is going to go down.
INDEX:DXYLong
by This_Guhy
5
DXY just put the Dollar Milkshake back on the menuBackground For years I have been fascinated by the Dollar Milkshake Theory of Brent Johnson out of Santiago Capital. In the broadest strokes, there will be increased dollar demand as the fiat system collapses because all the other fiats will collapse and then the Dollar will be the last fiat standing before the fiat system is replaced (somehow). This leads to some oddities in theory. US assets/equities will go up in value against non-us assets while the dollar goes up itself as people seek a hedge against the strong dollar. International trade of equities and futures allows this to happen in a way that would be unfeasible just a few decades ago. And if for some reason you can't buy US equities? Then you buy anti-fiats like precious metals or whatever de-fi stable coin you can. Whenever the dollar rises Brent is praised for his theory and whenever it declines he is slagged. In either case he is humble and clarifies he has a theory and his company hedges against the theory and it isn't the whole portfolio. But DXY has put the Dollar Milkshake on the menu. Analysis Few things have been more successfully for me in my long term investments than use of the weekly and monthly bollinger bands when combined with some divergence, basic charting, and even a half ass reliable fundamental analysis. Please review my linked idea on chain-link for my best example thereof and an earlier prediction on DXY. Shown is the monthly chart of DXY with the monthly and weekly Bollinger bands. Checklist The Dollar Milkshake theory is AT LEAST some half assed fundamental theory. We were against both weekly and monthly Bollinger bands Basic charting shows zone that has flipped from resistance to support and we are now testing it as support again the MACD suggest a bullish cross of the sigil line is highly likely The MACD suggest that the MACD will cross above zero. Suppositions DXY at least reaches the purple trendline DXY thrust upwards mightily above the purple trendline and then attacks it again as support DXY battles its way valiantly though the grey area of resistance The Weekly Bollinger band will again act as resistance as DXY channels upward. Macro Devastation Perhaps the most devastating thing about our current environment is the effective federal funds rate is in a falling wedge. There was a while where I was supposing the nominal rate would go to zero but that turned out to not be the case. But the real interest rate has been zero by official stats, and by shadow stats, and by the fact I can get up to 11% on USD stable coins on various defi/staking platforms. If the dollar is rising and interest rates on dollar loans are rising this will cause havoc on a global stage. The financial news will be in hersterics and at no time will they blame fractional reserve banking or how central banks facilitate the addiction to sovereign debt. Oh well. Recommendations I don't give financial advice. I personally like digital currencies as opposed to digital stores of value for the next 18-24 months. Get rich or stay poor.
TVC:DXYLong
by This_Guhy
7
Quickpost: DXY to channel up bullishlyThere is a lot of bullishness to Dxy that most are missing. First there is a lot of technical resistance to the downside based on the bollinger bands and there is little reason to think the bollinger bands will break due to the bullishness in the indicators with both hidden and traditional bullishness within the MACD and Histogram and the hidden bullishness within the RSI. The next move is likely to the top of the weekly bollinger band and a series of higher highs and higher lows. If you want a more thorough write up please see my linked post on DXY and the dollar milkshake from about 6 weeks ago.
TVC:DXYLong
by This_Guhy
BTC Bearish Logarithmic XACB ButterflyTL:DR One of the most powerful forex patterns is visible on the bitcoin chart, but only on the log scale. Ultra bearish if correct. Intro (a bit blogposty) I am constantly looking for the largest market structure I can find and doing such drives me to expand the number of patterns I can easily recall. The harmonic patterns are the trickiest for me due to all of the internal consistencies. I was looking at the bitcoin price action over and over again when I saw the harmonic butterfly. When you look for the ratios within the default XABC pattern you get the wrong ratios but when you put the chart on log scale and make sure your fib retracements are set to log you get almost perfectly retracement/extension ratios we are looking for. This chart formation has taken over 3 years to develop. It should have some power. More Analysis The main chart is very explanatory of the big picture so we can dive in to some further analysis. My linked comment will detail my rational from earlier on how I think we are in a bull trap. Saves us the time from going over it here. But first lets zoom in on the XABCD structure. On the daily zoom in we can see our tolerances for B an C are very tight. Very comforting for the overall structure. A quirky chart is the 20 day chart which came from my trying to combine some 10 day candle stick formations. Looks pretty bad. Misc (ideas y'all can steal as I don't have the energy to flesh out) The ETHBTC chart is very concerning given the high level of correlation between all crypto. A broadening wedge is a bearish formation and even if price action returns to the base of the wedge ETH takes a hammering against BTC. I would assume that this means that crypto falls victim to the everything bubble but bitcoin recovers first while ETH is still falling. Very tenuous supposition. This chart is a bit busy conceptually, but meh. We have a red ichimoku cloud that has turned red as of several days ago and I have not heard anyone mention it. Curious but I do know so many people are looking at the 4h chart and may miss this. Pi cycle is bearish, that we know and by itself isn't conclusive because this is the first time it is going live. The on balance EMAs takes the default on balance volume and applies EMAs to get an even wider view of trends. The 20 crossing the 100 is a very major bearish sign of persistent selling. Final Thoughts This is all very experimental. We are taking a pattern that I can't verify is suppose to work on the log chart like this. But what I do know is the uptick in volume helps confirm that someone was probably seeing the same thing I did, just a head of me. And this dude had enough BTC to nail in the close. My linked post shows TSLA is in a massive correction. If they and Musk take a loss on BTCUSD the memetic energy into this dump will be incredible. Unlike some people out there, I see some clear indicators that we should not be recklessly long. If this pattern is valid the gold and silver bugs will be crowing victory. BTC is suppose to be currency so it would make sense that a Forex pattern would work. And with Dollar milk shake the last currency standing is suppose to be the dollar and DXY is looking very strong right now while inflation is soaring. Seems easy to think that everyone not in the US will dump BTC to feed themselves.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
26
A Monthly and weekly look at GoldGreetings. Gold is a sleeping giant that rolled over in its sleep beginning in 2018 and now most may have thought that it has settled down, but it really has just put on its boots and is about to get going in earnest. The similarities between 2008 and our current situation should be obvious with both the charts as well as the news cycle justifying ever ending inflating the money supply and destroying our savings for our own good (they say). Gold went on a banger of an uptrend and exceeded its all time high but then pulled back with a financial shock and disease (H1N1, Corona, etc) to retest its previous All Time high. The big picture is very bullish but will become even more so when we look at the current price action on the weekly. The weekly chart shows a bull flag in black, and within that bullflag we have a nested W bottom against the flag support. To make things even more bullish we have quite a bit of bullish divergence on the MACD and histogram. I am sure you could pull up a whole lot more indicators but this is good enough. The key point is the price action is also against the weekly bollingerband. Very limited downside, nested weekly structures and a very bullish monlth macro structure suggest a whole lot of upside over the next year or two for investors. Ultimate levels to watch are the fib channel levels. Hitting play on the main chart in a year or two will be kinda a neat exercise to see how well this post does. Degenerate Traders would use a stop loss system based on the W pattern and would look to play the interactions of the bollinger band and flag resistance flipping to support. My personal interest in gold right now is contemplating using PAXG to "tether up" as opposed to usd stable coins. If I see some risk in the market and gold happens to look good while a specific crypto coin looks at risk I will look at going PAXG instead of USDC or Tether. I have decided to only use one linked idea for this post. It is with regards to the Dollar Milk Shake Theory put out by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital and the idea expounds on the theory.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by This_Guhy
3
DXY and the Dollar Milkshake ScenarioBrent Johnson of Santiago Capital has a very insightful theory on how the dollar will collapse and ultimately dump into the dirt as it dies along with most fiat currencies. There are a lot of ins and outs and one summary was given by the "Market Sniper" Francis Hunt when he interviewed Mr. Johnson and he summarized the theory as fiat as collapsing in a series of concentric dominoes with USD in the middle. As outlying fiats currencies collapse they will be sold as people flee to stores of value and that will include USD, which will be the last fiat to fall against fiat alternatives. Mr. Hunt does a good job of creating jargon and one I find particular useful is scenario-cast. There is perpetual balance of tensions between buyers and sellers that snap into impulses and break outs in the market and you have to have decision trees. The linked idea below shows a scenario where I think that fiat just drops straight down and the dollar milkshake be damned. I posted this idea two weeks ago and is a secondary alternative as I think the monthly bollinger band will hold here. My majority probability senario is that DXY will furst surge to the weekly baseline, then the monthly baseline, then the upper edges of both bollingerbands. Back to DXY and Dollar Milkshake... There is this weird condition that no matter which way DXY goes, so long as it is impulsive, the result is the same. DXY Impulses down: Everyone with Dollars (United States and major trade partners in the eurodollar system) goes into fiat Alternatives to preserve their buying power DXY Impulses Up: Everyone without Dollars goes into fiat alternatives as their local currencies get ravaged. (This is Dollar Milkshake Complaint) DXY is Impulsively Erratic: Fewer things will drive people into anti-fiats like the dollar whipsawing up and down as everyone gets shaken out into anti-fiats (so long as DXY impulses upward very soon this is Dollar Milkshake Compliant) DXY trends sideways: A stable dollar kills antifiats due to the trust in the fiat system. People don't need to hedge against dollar strength. This is the least Dollar Milkshake complaint scenario. Now let me be clear: I don't know of anyone that thinks the dollar will be stable. The endless quantitative easing implies the dollar falls against assets denominated in dollars. The Dollar Milk Shake Theory implies that first the dollar will appreciate against all non-usd fiats. Here is my current dollar milkshake scenario If for some reason the bollinger band fail to hold the world has a 2008 scenario. I don't think that is the case because the current situation doesn't have the massive bearish flagpole setup that 2008 did. The main thought or take away for this post is that is DXY could pamp up and we should expect a quick and sharp correction over the next couple of weeks in most equities and anti-fiats. Nothing to serious, especially compared to earlier this year,
TVC:DXYLong
by This_Guhy
1