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Copper is red hot right now. Here’s whyCopper’s COMEX price hit a new high on 26th March making the red metal red hot right now. The first three months of 2025 have seen industrial metals make noticeable gains with the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex up 10.55% year to date1. Copper’s gains, however, stand out for numerous reasons. Tariffs The additional premium of COMEX prices over the London Metal Exchange (LME) prices reflects aggressive buying by US traders importing copper in anticipation of a possible 25% tariff on copper imports. This speculation has been fuelled by President Trump last month ordering a probe into the threat to national security from the imports of copper. As aluminium imports were also recently subjected to tariffs, markets are speculating that copper might be next. This rush has triggered a shift in global flows, with metal moving out of LME warehouses and into US Comex facilities, where copper is held on a “duty paid” basis to avoid future levies. As traders front-run potential policy changes, this behaviour is tightening global supply and fuelling price gains, adding to a market already under pressure from rising demand and a looming supply squeeze. Demand China has given an additional boost to copper prices having announced a new action plan to boost domestic consumption by raising household incomes. The stimulus is seen as a positive signal for copper demand, especially as retail sales have already shown stronger-than-expected growth early in the year. China has also set itself a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, and so far this year, its manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has remained in expansionary territory — a sign that the economy is holding steady. With momentum building across consumption and manufacturing, copper is getting a fresh tailwind despite lingering weakness in the property sector. Further support for industrial metals, including copper, has come from Germany’s recently unveiled €1 trillion infrastructure and defence spending plan — a move that will inevitably drive greater demand for base metals. Supply Supply tightness in the copper market is being driven by several structural and emerging challenges. Exceptionally low processing fees—caused by an oversupply of smelting capacity, particularly in China—have placed financial strain on global smelters, prompting companies like Glencore to halt operations at its facility in the Philippines. Looking ahead, Indonesia’s proposal to shift from a flat 5% copper mining royalty to a progressive rate of 10–17% risks discouraging future production growth. These supply-side pressures come as the International Copper Study Group reported a slight global copper deficit in January 2025. While a similar shortfall at the start of 2024 eventually turned into a surplus, this time the combination of weakening smelting economics, policy headwinds, and solid demand could make the current deficit more persistent and impactful. Several major copper miners have recently downgraded their production estimates for 2025, adding further pressure to an already tight market. Glencore suspended output at its Altonorte smelter in Chile2, while Freeport-McMoRan delayed refined copper sales from its Manyar smelter in Indonesia due to a fire3. Anglo American expects lower output from its Chilean operations amid maintenance and water challenges, and First Quantum Minerals faces reduced grades and scheduled downtime4. These disruptions are likely to tighten global copper concentrate supply, potentially widening the market’s supply-demand imbalance just as demand continues to strengthen. Sources: 1 Source: Bloomberg, based on total return index as of 28 March 2025. 2 Reuters, March 26, 2025 3 Reuters, October 16, 2024 4 Metal.com. February 14, 2025 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
COMEX:HGS1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
CEIX Consol Rally to $60 for Local Coal Cycle Toptry and be patient with this one. Geopolitical headlines will move it fast in this thin volume topping structure. await a run up near 60 and then play for downside strong fundamentals: finviz.com Greenlight Capital also discussed CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CEIX) in its Q2 2021 investor letter. The fund said: “Thermal Coal and Natural Gas ESG investing is inflationary, as green energy is simply more expensive than hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon energy companies are starved for capital and are being told to change their ways. The result is less exploration and drilling. Even with benchmark oil prices surging over the last year, companies are loath to drill more. Normally, the cure for high prices is high prices. With ESG in the proverbial driver’s seat, we might need much higher prices still in order to increase investment to meet demand. There is almost nothing less popular than thermal coal. From 2011 to 2020, U.S. coal production declined by 51%. U.S. demand has fallen as we’ve shifted to alternative sources of electricity. As unpopular as coal is though, it still makes up about 20% of U.S. electricity generation. Globally, coal demand is growing modestly as China and India add power generation capacity faster than the West is reducing it. Even so, reduced oil and gas drilling has caused natural gas prices to advance and coal prices are following. Seaborne thermal coal prices are up 140% year-over-year and at the highest levels since 2011, and Northern Appalachia thermal coal prices are catching up, rising 23% in the last month alone. We own CONSOL Energy (CEIX), the lowest cost, most efficient miner in Appalachia, which is poised to benefit from rising coal prices. It trades at 12x consensus earnings estimates that look stale to us, as they do not reflect recent coal price gains.”
NYSE:CNR
by noam_chom
3
Real Estate Blue Chip SPG Simon Property“This is the paradox of public space: even if everyone knows an unpleasant fact, saying it in public changes everything. One of the first measures taken by the new Bolshevik government in 1918 was to make public the entire corpus of tsarist secret diplomacy, all the secret agreements, the secret clauses of public agreements etc. There too the target was the entire functioning of the state apparatuses of power.” Simon Property Group seeks hyper-privatization of property, by which they can expand their capital and power network Political outcomes will drive the future for this corporation. Midterms of 2022 will be a catalyst to the upside, but then 2024 presidential cycle holds the true power.
NYSE:SPGLong
by noam_chom
PLAY -ing with Fire Up here - Dave & Busters Eatertainment ChainDave & Buster's is an American restaurant and entertainment business headquartered in Dallas. Each Dave & Buster's has a full-service restaurant and a video arcade. As of January 2022, the company has 144 locations in the United States and two in Canada. A quick scan of Google Maps D&B locations shows that very few are rated above 4 stars This is a large national chain with a good footprint, however the upside is limited if common Americans begin to slow down discretionary spending.
NASDAQ:PLAYShort
by noam_chom
EQT Flare-Off Top Somebody tell Toby Rice Sell Them SharesWhat Is Tragedy of the Commons? The tragedy of the commons is an economics problem in which every individual has an incentive to consume a resource, but at the expense of every other individual—with no way to exclude anyone from consuming. Initially it was formulated by asking what would happen if every shepherd, acting in their own self-interest, allowed their flock to graze on the common field. If everybody does act in their apparent own best interest, it results in harmful over-consumption (all the grass is eaten, to the detriment of everyone) Popular support for alternative energy has been very high for years. But it harms corporate profits. The top is near for the fossil fuel energy mini-cycle, demand destruction will be the narrative this summer
NYSE:EQTShort
by noam_chom
Bullish Structure Formation With Big Targets!Hammerson PLC is an owner, manager and developer of retail destinations in Europe. Hammerson’s share portfolio includes investments in 23 prime shopping centres in the UK, Ireland and France, 18 convenient retail parks in the UK and 19 premium outlets across Europe. Hammerson is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The Financial Surveillance Department of the South African Reserve Bank approved the secondary listing. This listing has been classified in the Secondary Listing as “domestic” for exchange control purposes. Hammerson believes that pursuing the secondary listing improves the depth and spread of the shareholder base of the Company, thereby improving liquidity and tradeability of its shares and ensuring the Company is accessing a wider pool of international capital. Technicals Looking at the bigger picture allows me to see where the price should be headed over the medium to long term and I trade based on lower time frame entries. Here we can see that a 5 wave structure has formed and it is of a bullish nature. This leads me to believe that we will see a break to the upside, eventually. There will be a period of consolidation once price reaches the top of the structure and I will look for confirmation of the break. Long entries are at a good level now to hold to the top.
JSE:HMNLong
by Linton_White