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Draghi

In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points. European Macros  The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019. Fed Effects  The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
FShort
by BFCMInvest
In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points.European Macros The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019. Fed Effects The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
FShort
by BFCMInvest
Selling EUR against JPYAfter some positive news from Moody’s last Friday on Italy the headlines are starting to fade making this morning a great opportunity to start getting short EURUSD and EURJPY around current levels. The ECB introduced a risk premium on the EUR which is only going to increase as the EZ outlook softens. I like playing EUR against pockets of USD strength as we have the possibility for renewed pricing on Fed hikes in the picture and JPY via fiscal year-end repatriation flows. Best of luck to those trading Euro live this week
Short
by ridethepig
8
An update to the EURUSD chart after a retrace from ECBThe latest rebound from the bottom of the channel has given a soft recovery. We are approaching key resistance areas and for those who are bearish on the USD you will need a constructive break above 1.13 to show anything meaningful in this recovery. I don't subscribe to the view that we have seen the highs in Dollar and expect these flows to continue well into the summer 2019. I am positioned as most of you already know for 1.09 and even 1.06/1.05 if we see maximum pain with a no-deal Brexit. For those who are trading the longer-term perspective , I would encourage you to view the monthly chart attached, this is a view I have maintained since last year and still expect a higher low to develop over the 1.03 lows from 2017. This will mark a very interesting buying opportunity, as the noise of a European collapse will have reached maximum volume and most will be screaming for a break of parity. Nevertheless, we will be talking more about this in a few months. All the best to those who are trading live.
Short
by ridethepig
EURJPY Likely To Fall Further! A SHORT trade SetupTRADE TYPE: SELL WHEN THE MARKET OPENS AT AROUND 124.800 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 126.750 TAKE PROFIT: 123.000 RR: 1:1 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS With the trendline and channel on daily charts broken convincingly, the cross is aiming to test the next crucial support that lies in the 123.000 level! Price has already given the confirmation and the short trade can be executed once the market opens on monday. There are other crucial technical analysis that are too long too explain behind this trade setup, all in all the analysis is based on weekly charts but the structure on the daily TF has given me enough confirmation to take this trade short FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Well what can be said about the EUR! ECB on thursday surprised the markets by its more than expected dovish announcement which sent all the EUR pairs into high selling pressure. The EUR is sentimented to fall further in the coming days. Shall there be any updates i will provide them here. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
The day after DraghiYesterday, Mario Draghi announced a new round of long-term and favorable conditions loans for the banking system. The new series of operations will be launched from September 2019 and will end in March 2021. The operations will be carried out every three months and each will have a two-year maturity. In addition, the ECB has confirmed what analysts had expected despite the last meeting at the end of 2018 (which suggested that in September 2019 there could have been a rise in rates), that is: there will be no change in the monetary policy adopted in the last years, keeping fixed interest rates at least until the end of 2019, but it is very likely that this policy will also be maintained during 2020. All of this, leaves macro analysis unchanged, it is likely that for the next few weeks the EURUSD will be laterally between 1.12 and 1.14, and then proceed in its main bearish trend with final target at 1.08 as soon as Powell resume monetary tightening. However, we expect a devaluation of the US dollar until March 20: our first target is 1.14 in the short term and then the area between 1.10 and 1.08.
Long
by BFCMInvest
FTSEMIB: uncertain directionVery short term In line with the other world indices, this upward trend driven by the resumption of American prices will tend to continue. The level to which it will aim in the very short term is the dynamic resistance identified by the weekly EMA200 at an altitude of 20450 points: from here it will be understood whether it will have the strength to continue towards 20900 points breaking it and confirming the upside break, or if it will be rejected by taking over of the main trend. Short and mid term From a technical point of view in the short/medium term, the Italian index is still bearish. The trend is confirmed even from a fundamental study: the unstable political-economic situation of our country and the growth forecasts for 2019 ( near the flat level ), with the general European situation also in the balance, it is very probable that soon we will assist to a new drop in prices and in particular on the FTSE MIB that will return to bet 18000 points.
F
by BFCMInvest
EUR/USD and Mario Draghi ?! Ready to fall !The trend is bearish in the short and medium term, while in the very short it remains lateral. With the last conference of the ECB governor, the investors have been surprised by a sudden change of vision by Draghi, who said that as early as the first quarter of 2019 could start to issue money at 0 interest rate in favor of the banking system since the European economic situation is getting worse. Neither deposit rates and interest rates will be increased. The main trend is now bearish in daily and weekly time frame, the price continues to move under the EMA 20 periods, and under the bearish ichimoku cloud, for the static level for a trend inversion (at 1.15) seems to be too strong to be passed in the short term, the price is rejected since the end of September. The target, at this point, if Draghi confirmed the hypotheses declared in the conference on January 24th, would be in the support zone between 1.10 and 1.08.
Short
by BFCMInvest
The euro has lost almost 3 centsAfter yesterday's press conference of the ECB, Mario Draghi announced the termination of the redemption of bonds, the euro's exchange rate has subsided. For one day, the Euro moved down for almost 300 points. At the moment, considering the chart, we see that the price fell below the level of 1.1630 and almost reached the level of 1.1530. We expect that during today's trading, the price may pass in the upper boundary of this channel and rush down to test the level of 1.1530.
by SuperForex
ECB PreviewOnce again the ECB is challenged with managing market expectations, while at the same time assuaging concerns within the governing council that the prospective tightening profile (if we can call it that) is starting to lag the growth seen (on average) in the region. Emphasis is being placed on the possible wording on the easing bias, which naturally is hard to include with economic traction developing despite some modest fade in the growth metrics. Sluggish inflation will be the counter-balance to this argument/view, and herein lies the direct and indirect reference to exchange rates, which also serve to add headwinds (or tailwinds) to exporters, who are in the spotlight at present given the proposed actions of the Trump administration in the US. Nevertheless, some form of adjustment in the statement would appease the hawkish members, and the ECB are ever hopeful that the market is or has priced in the eventual end to QE, hence the constant reiteration that rates will not rise until well past the end date. Focus on the staff projections will be on the growth figures, with core inflation picking up, and forecasts on the headline rates tempered by currency forecasts which will have been adjusted higher. Economic expansion is more likely to be revised up if anything, given the ongoing robust outlook, and only minor adjustments are anticipated at best if at all. There is a strong chance we get a less volatile reaction from the EUR today, but the market is tightly constrained by limits ahead of 1.2100 on the downside, while 1.2500+ looks a stretch at this point given market positioning.
Short
by RajDhall
US rally leaves little for NFP to surprise tradersUS Dollar The dollar took aggressive stance on Wednesday as investors await bullish comments from the Fed and White House while troubled New Zealand Dollar was rescued by a strong labor market report. The basket of major currencies fell against the greenback, however last week's high at 95.00 seems to have to be conquered again. The Fed's November meeting is of little interest to investors as the position of regulator for the December meeting is pretty clear, and there is no point in talking about distant prospects, given that Yellen's term is coming to an end in February. A much more important event will be the announcement of a new head of the Fed on Thursday, where the views converge on Yellen’s colleague Jerome Powell. The market estimates his chances at 85%. Powell is a famous follower of gradualism, so his appointment will probably disappoint the markets and will deprive the dollar of some support. For the US stock markets, amid the economic recovery and the tax reform, the prospect of a sluggish Fed is likely to revive interest for staging new records. Later on Wednesday there will be news on tax reform, in particular the plans of Treasury for auctions to finance the deficit. Despite the large number of seemingly bullish events for the dollar, I would recommend refraining from buying it until the uncertainty is eliminated. All data indicate a strong report on employment in the US on Friday, but all this should be seen in the context of accelerating growth after natural disasters. The long-term dynamics of the dollar will be determined by the tax reform and the appointment of the head of the Federal Reserve. In favor of strong NFP report there is an increase in consumer confidence and spending, which also prepares favorable ground for the fourth quarter GDP performance. The early start of the heating season and the seasonal increase in energy prices will create additional inflationary pressures on the economy, which, together with rising oil prices, will have a multiplier effect. New Zealand Dollar Economic recovery also reached New Zealand, where unemployment fell to 4.6%, which triggered a wave of long positions for NZD and NZDUSD growth of 0.9%. Suddenly, a steep exchange rate rise after robust labor data was a "relief" rally after the new government announced the isolationist measures - preventing foreign investment and migration. Nevertheless, the policy will take its toll and we can expect further weakening of the New Zealand dollar. British Pound The British pound jumped to the high of October on Tuesday, after the European official in charge of Brexit talks, said he was ready to accelerate negotiations on the country's exit from the bloc, thus significantly boosting the spirit of investors who still hope for a pound gain. Theresa May’s spokeswoman also reported on the hiring of thousands of customs officers at the new borders with the European Union - which also signaled the imminent announcement of the final exit conditions. On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold a meeting, which is likely to announce an increase in the interest rate by 0.25% - for the first time in 10 years. The head of the bank, Mark Carney, took advantage of this monetary tool when he announced the need to rate hike at the previous meeting (which caused the pound to rise to 1.36), so in search of arguments for a strong currency again, he needs to show the readiness of the bank to any consequences of Brexit. With the global economic recovery, rising oil prices, there is a chance that he will have the courage to be more aggressive than expected. Arthur Idiatulin
FX:UKOILShort
by Tickmill
Fed is about to step into new "hawkish Era"ECB European stock markets and the euro stood still in anticipation of the results of ECB meeting, while in the fixed income market there is a slight rush and the price of bonds is moderately growing. The yield of US Treasuries also fell after a rise to a seven-month peak on speculation about a new Fed head, likely to be a candidate with a more aggressive policy than Yellen. The ECB plans to announce a reduction in the asset purchase program at today's meeting and any deviation from the most likely scenario (€ 30bn, 9 months) could potentially cause volatility in the markets, particularly affecting the European currency and German bonds. Draghi will probably choose the most cautious approach to the changes of emergency stimulus begun in 2014, as inflationary pressures remain weak and depend on external factors, such as oil prices and global growth in general. In September, prices rose by 1.5% and internal drivers of inflation still did not show themselves in the opinion of ECB officials. Obviously, Draghi does not want to repeat the mistakes of his predecessor Jean-Claude Trichet, who before his departure in 2011 raised rates only so that Draghi again cut them back. The central banks of other European regions, in particular Sweden and Norway, kept rates at the same level and Riksbank said that until mid-2018, monetary policy will remain untouched. The ECB will probably retain the option of reinvesting the income received from bonds that have reached maturity, which will be a stable feed on the supply side of debt market. The amount of debt purchases through this option can reach 15 billion euros in addition to the main program. Draghi probably also worries about the problem of appreciation of the euro against the background of recovery, therefore, as a deterrent in any changes, it may manifest itself today. The European currency is also being pressured by the struggle for independence of Catalonia. Separatists are given 48 hours to decide whether they will surrender to the authorities or will fight further. Who's next to take the helm of Fed? The director of the National Economic Council Gary Cohn seems to have dropped out from the short list of candidates, said sources familiar with the situation. Speculation before the announcement of the new Fed chief on November 3 will tickle investors nerves and keep trading unrest in US currency. Oil market Oil prices sank after the release of the EIA report, which showed an increase in commercial crude oil reserves by 856K barrels last week, while gasoline inventories declined by 5.47M barrels. This shows the process of restoring the balance of supply and demand in the US gasoline market and indicates a gradual slowdown in the pace of refinery. Saudi Arabia continues to support the markets with hints of extending the oil pact until the end of 2018, but investors are in no hurry to price in his comments. Arthur Idiatulin
Short
by Tickmill