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Dynamics

The Fall of the Titans: Crypto Downtrend Unfolding on the 4hAre we witnessing the Fall of the Titans? Is crypto, the digital currency titan that has been dominating the financial landscape for over a decade now, showing signs of slowing down? The recent data on the 4h chart reveals an unfolding story - a Crypto Downtrend that may have significant implications for investors and enthusiasts alike. In this modern era of finance, cryptocurrencies have morphed from being an underground secret of the tech world into an open powerhouse that shapes financial markets globally. However, they have not been without their share of unpredictability and turbulence. The recent activity on the 4h chart, particularly, paints a picture of a potential shift in momentum - a Crypto Downtrend. Understanding The 4h Chart Before we delve into the specificities, it's crucial to understand what a 4h chart signifies. The 4h chart, as the name implies, represents price movements over 4-hour periods. Traders often use this intermediate timeframe to discern the medium-term trends in the crypto market, which allows them to plan their strategies accordingly. The 4h chart gives a more comprehensive view of market dynamics as compared to the shorter timeframes, without getting drowned in the long-term noise of the daily or weekly charts. Indicators of a Crypto Downtrend In crypto trading, several indicators suggest a potential downtrend. Key among them are lower highs and lower lows, which hint at a declining price momentum. Other indicators such as the moving averages, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the MACD can further support these observations. In the current scenario, the 4h chart shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which is a tell-tale sign of a Crypto Downtrend. Additionally, the moving averages have seen a bearish crossover, while the RSI is hovering in the lower regions. These all point to a potential reversal of the bullish trend we've been experiencing. Impact of the Crypto Downtrend This potential Crypto Downtrend has significant implications. For one, it indicates a period of price correction, where the overvalued prices return to more realistic levels. While this could be a cause of worry for some investors, it could present an opportunity for others. For investors who have been waiting on the sidelines, this could be their chance to get in, to buy the dip. On the contrary, those who are heavily invested might want to brace themselves for potential losses, or consider hedging their investments. The Way Forward While the current observations from the 4h chart do point towards a Crypto Downtrend, it is essential to remember that the world of cryptocurrencies is known for its volatility. In the world of crypto, trends can reverse quickly and unexpectedly. Therefore, investors and traders should always stay vigilant and responsive to the changing market dynamics. Also, it's important to note that a downtrend isn't necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it can serve as a healthy correction in an otherwise overheated market, paving the way for sustainable growth in the long run. So, is this the fall of the digital titans, or merely a small bump in the road? Only time will tell. For now, though, it’s a good time to stay alert, plan your strategies, and tread with caution in the fascinating world of crypto. --------------------------- This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. Crypto trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors.
Short
by Titans_Trading
1
Scott Carney's "Deep Crab" & the Fields Medal in MathematicsQ: What does the former have to do with the later? A: The intuition in the former (S. Carney) is born out by the later (A. Avila; Fields Medal - 2014) From Scott Carney's website; --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Harmonic Trading: Volume One Page 136 The Deep Crab Pattern™, is a Harmonic pattern™ discovered by Scott Carney in 2001. The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg but employs an 0.886 retracement at the B point unlike the regular version that utilizes a 0.382-0.618 at the mid-point. The pattern requires a very small stop loss and usually volatile price action in the Potential Reversal Zone." --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From Artur Avila's Fields Medal Citation; --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Artur Avila is awarded a Fields Medal for his profound contributions to dynamical systems theory, which have changed the face of the field, using the powerful idea of renormalization as a unifying principle. Description in a few paragraphs: Avila leads and shapes the field of dynamical systems. With his collaborators, he has made essential progress in many areas, including real and complex one-dimensional dynamics, spectral theory of the one-frequency Schrödinger operator, flat billiards and partially hyperbolic dynamics. Avila’s work on real one-dimensional dynamics brought completion to the subject, with full understanding of the probabilistic point of view, accompanied by a complete renormalization theory. His work in complex dynamics led to a thorough understanding of the fractal geometry of Feigenbaum Julia sets. In the spectral theory of one-frequency difference Schrödinger operators, Avila came up with a global description of the phase transitions between discrete and absolutely continuous spectra, establishing surprising stratified analyticity of the Lyapunov exponent." --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The connection here, as it is related to the specific "Deep Crab" harmonic pattern in trading, between intuition and general, analytical result, is illustrated somewhat simplified (but without distortion). In essence, Avila has shown that in dynamical systems, in the neighborhood of phase-transitions in the case of one-dimensional (such as: Price) unimodal distributions, after the onset of chaos, there are islands of stability surrounded nearly entirely by parameters that give rise to stochastic behavior where transitions are Cantor Maps - i.e., fractal. From that point it is an obvious next step to generalize to other self-affine fractal curves , such as the blancmange curve , which is a special case of w=1/2 of the general form: the Takagi–Landsberg curve. The "Hurst exponent"(H) = -log2(w) , which is the measure of the long-term-memory of a time series . Putting it all together, it is not pure coincidence that a reliable pattern (representation) emerges from intuition (observation) which proves to be a highly stable (reliable) pattern that is most often the hallmark of a near-term, violent transition.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by Nemo_Confidat
BTC;Criticality &Phase Transition; Thermodynamics of SpeculationThis is just a quick take on how markets , and more specifically Speculation - in it's most general, universal sense -, is informed by similar critical dynamics as those found underlying other social interactions. (The math is hidden. You're welcome.) What this is Not , is a ready-to-use model since the specific parameters or the full model description are not part of the proceeding. The following "As is ..." ; This statistical–mechanical model is based on the Boltzmann–Lotka–Volterra (BLV) method. BLV models involve two components: a fast equilibration, Boltzmann , component and a slow dynamic, Lotka–Volterra , component. The Boltzmann component applies maximum entropy principle to derive the static flow patterns of instruments (or their utility , as is the case). The Lotka–Volterra component evolves the spatial distribution (Price & Time; i.e.the chart) and the flow pattern of a information according to generalized Lotka–Volterra equations for distributed information. The resultant dynamics exhibit critical regimes, interpreted as phase transitions , where a small variation in suitably chosen (control) parameters changes the global outcomes measured via specific aggregated quantities (order parameters). The main take-away here is that this is in line with the idea that, despite the complexity of such a system (as depicted) only few parameters may be necessary to understand drastic macroscopic changes. The maximum entropy method has been applied to a variety of collective phenomena (E.g., Speculation; Yours Truly) suggesting a formal analogy between complex, socio-economic systems and thermodynamic systems. We use a clear thermodynamic interpretation of the Fisher information as the second derivative of free entropy. Specifically, we investigate the minimum work required to vary a control parameter and trace configuration entropy and internal energy, according with the first law of thermodynamics. The thermodynamic work is defined via Fisher information and thus can be computed solely based on probability distributions estimated from available data. Once we introduce the concept of thermodynamic efficiency as the ratio of the order gained during a change to the required work (information transmission), it can be rather easily demonstrated that it is maximized at criticality . Note; The above further illustrates the common observation that Technical Analysis fails, in most cases, to capture (forecast) Finite-time Singularities - i.e the sudden appearance of exponential price increases or price collapses ( crashes ).
Education
by Nemo_Confidat
7
BTC - LEVELS TO TAKE IN TO ACCOUNT IN THE UNEXPLORED TERRITORYLONGER TERM INDICATORS SIGNAL THE BULL RUN IS FAR FROM BEING COMPLETED. SHORTER TERM INDICATORS SHOW SOME EXHAUSTION OF BUYERS. LETS SEE WHAT THEY ARE AND WHAT ARE THE PRICES AND THE IMPLICATION ON ALTCOINS ON EACH SCENARIOS What a rally. Amazing. What to do now? We are in a new level f price, no past data to rely on. Actually we have some, namely the ones from the 2017 bull run! Of course the prices are not comparables, but the dynamics can be. With a nonstop rally from 10k (or 20k) to 40k, someone sooner or later will start lock in profits. Even the hardest holder have a stop loss (or mental stop loss) at which he will sell his BTC to reenter at a cheap price. 38,500 can be that price. below 38.5k we can see a snowfall effect caused by many SL placed there. This is the distance of the price from the 200MA. The green boxes indicate the bull run. We clearly see that a relief in the rally is needed now. Monthly RSI need to breath also (in green the Bull runs). No doubt this run we witnessed was just a preliminary bite of what we will see. What are the levels to reenter? 36,000 (-12% from the ATH) - the first one is 36k as it is the 200hourly MA. The 200MA holding the price is the minimum requirement for the trend to resume. If the price will stop here, we will be lucky :) 30,000 (-30% from the top) - it coincides with the 21 MA (level 1 in the chart) which is used in the Bull run many times as support 23, 700 (-45% from the top) - deeper dips in a bull run touch the 50MA as well. Dynamics can repeat themself but I honestly think that this time something is changed with respect to 2017. Mainly, institutional investors, not simple whales entering the market draining the supply. I believe that 30k will be an optimistic target and I would be satisfied in rebuy back there. 36,000 is the most likely. Please note that those levels are all DYNAMIC, therefore they may change if the price will lateralize for few days. ALTCOINS? I will post another update on Alt only, but in Bull run they behave differently than usual. They fall (in btc terms) when btc goes up (of course, as it is the king) and rise even if btc is going down (contrarily to what we are used to see) as the market takes for granted that the bull run will resume anyway.
BNC:BLXShort
by edutradinguru
gold4.23.20 This ended up being a video on gold and I never got the oil, but he gave me a chance to talk about the nuances of price action, money management, and risk reward. It will be a good video for a lot of traders because it shows a slightly different point of view that can help you once you think about this and develop your own strategy and your own sense of market dynamics. You do not have to accept everything that I say, but have an open mind and always verify through examples over the next month or so, and then refine your point of view. If this was helpful I would appreciate a thumbs up. Thanks
COMEX:GC1!Education
by ScottBogatin
GBPUSD On the Series of Looking for LOY (Low of the Year)Hey co-traders, 1st off, our GU is seating off on Major Short Trend. It's not wise to buy until cloud is clear. We can see how she tries to move up and keep on getting rejected on those key levels on volume. Dynamic wise, dealers still have a room for it down to the bottom to 1.235 or lower, which could be calculated as economic factor depreciates its price on the price chart. MM swiftly moved their motive on a matter of week to entice appearing LOY last few weeks, but we all know it's not real until another price has been unfold for it. For PA, she tries to move up on spike but shows a sign of exhaustion and will eventually show just a long wick on every spike or economic news. There was one good rally we have had experienced 20 hours ago. Although the high it has given up with was eventually rejected. Hence, apparently, considering this a "Rally Rejection Trade Setup" based on volume, as there's a heavy room seated on resistance. Let's probe each trade and analysis, and validate it with truth, figures, economic facts and valid confirmation. Personally, I could be cold wrong but it shouldn't meant to affect other traders strategy to it, not trying to be right on this, but just trading with solid facts and confirmations. Healthy exchanges of views with others also validates trades with some other currency pairs. What's your insight for this pair?
Short
by KarlRollon
2