From $1.13 to $2.78 early premarket $NMHIFrom $1.13 to $2.78 🚀 early premarket, another doubled stock NASDAQ:NMHI
Early bird gets the worm
Early
In uncertain environments, Quality Dividend Growers the answer2023 saw one of the narrowest bull markets in history, with only 10 stocks contributing 14.3% out of the 20.6% rally during the first 7 months of the year. Since then, markets have turned with the S&P 500 and the MSCI World dropping around -7% since their top1.
Looking forward to the rest of 2023 and beyond, uncertainty is high:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached or is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the easing cycle is still distant and its speed is unknown.
The US may avoid a full-blown recession but a recessionary environment with below-average growth is still on the table.
Further disinflation may be slower as we get closer to target, and energy prices continue to put pressure on core CPI.
In such uncertain times, investors could be contemplating reducing risk in their portfolios. However, many of them have been caught with an underweight in equities early in 2023 and missed out on the rally, leading to underperformance. To avoid a repeat, remaining invested but shifting equity exposures toward higher quality, dividend growing companies could help protect the downside while maintaining exposure to the upside.
Quality stocks tend to outperform at the end of rate hike cycles
With the rate hike cycle reaching its end, it is interesting to see what happened historically to equities in the 12 months following the end of rate hike cycles. The absolute performance of US equities has been quite dispersed following the end of the last 7 rate hike cycles by the Fed. US equities returned 24% in the best period and -18.8% in the worst. Looking at high-quality companies, we observe some consistency, though, since they outperformed the market in 6 out of those seven periods. The only period of outperformance was in 1998, when quality companies returned ‘only’ 23.3% versus 24.3% for the market. In the two periods when equities posted negative returns, quality companies cushioned the loss well, reducing the drawdown significantly.
When investors get picky, quality companies benefit
On observing the performance of high- and low-quality stocks depending on the level of growth in the economy. We split quarters into 4 quartiles, from low-growth quartiles to high-growth quartiles, and then calculate the outperformance or underperformance of those stocks in the quarter following the growth observation.
We first observe the resilience of high-quality companies. While low-quality companies only outperform when the economy is firing on all cylinders, high-quality companies outperform in all 4 environments. High-quality stocks outperform more when growth is either low or below average.
The style that doesn’t go out of style
Investment factors ebb and flow between periods of relative under- and outperformance, depending on where we are in the cycle. One big exception is quality which is, in our view, the most consistent of all factors. Sure, quality can lag in the sharp risk-on rallies that typically mark the start of an early cycle snapback; but those environments don’t tend to last, and neither does quality’s underperformance. In fact, there hasn’t been a rolling 10-year period when quality underperformed since the late 1980s.
The rolling outperformance of different US equity factors versus the market over 10-year periods since the 1970s based on the data from a famous academic: Kenneth French. On average, over periods of 10 years, quality is the factor that has historically delivered outperformance the most, often by a significant margin (90% of the time, the second best only hit 78%). It is also the factor that exhibited the smallest worst performance.
Conclusion
Overall, high-quality companies have exhibited outperformance in periods of low growth, in periods following rate hikes and, more generally, across many parts of the business cycle. With economic uncertainty remaining elevated, and an equity rally that is faltering, investors could consider quality as their portfolio anchor.
Sources
1 WisdomTree, Bloomberg. As of 27 September 2023.
2 WisdomTree, Bloomberg, Morningstar, June 2016 to June 2023.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Cypherium Possible Upside and connections with FedNOWA little research online shows that Cypherium is connected to the FedNow system as a provider.
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There is also connections to the METAL blockchain which may present an opportunity as well.
But this one is too good to NOT pass up.
If You'd Bought $100m Worth of Stellar (XLM) 5 Years AgoKey points
Stellar allows you to create and send digital representations of any type of money.
A $100m investment in this cryptocurrency five years ago would now be worth over $940m.
Fans of Stellar believe it still has plenty of room to grow, but like all cryptocurrencies, it's a risky investment.
Launched in 2014, Stellar (XLM) is an ambitious project designed to make it fast and cheap to transfer any kind of currency. Even though its price isn't anywhere close to its previous highs, it has still paid off for anyone who got in early.
2021 Bull Run Price Prediction $186,083Long term trends seem to indicate a massive megaphone peaking at the green line. The long term blue resistance is placed assuming a $1 Million peak for the next bull run. BTC is currently trading in the upper half of the megaphone, where it should remain for the rest of the bull market. Forecasted peak is coming early this time, mid July perhaps. If we extend further growth can be expected to slow.
This is NOT financial advice, I am just some dude on the internet.
Time to gloat: as expected, big tech cracking down on the leftThe USA billionaires that pretend to be left wing by supporting a far right party that calls itself the left, are now - as was so obvious just so obvious and so certain to happen - banning droves of left wing activists and groups.
I am gloating, not because I like seeing people get silenced, I am gloating because I love to say "told you so" and there is a second reason: I know this is the early phase of these internet giants dying. They won't go to zero tomorrow, we are only in the innovator or early adopter phase, but at some point the progress bar will fill up and this will be it.
There are plenty of alternatives and I cannot tell yet which ones will be the ones (some might not even have been created yet): Rumble, DLive, Mastodon, Bitchute, Gab, Parler, Odysee, many more, mostly right wing alternatives for now.
Here a few words from the International Committee of the Fourth International via their World Socialist Web Site:
"On Friday, Facebook carried out a purge of left-wing, antiwar and progressive pages and accounts, including leading members of the Socialist Equality Party. Facebook gave no explanation why the accounts were disabled or even a public acknowledgement that the deletions had occurred."
"Since the 2016 election, the US intelligence agencies have advocated internet censorship in the name of fighting “fake news.” While these actions have been presented as targeting far-right conspiracy theories, they have, in fact, disproportionately affected left-wing, antiwar and socialist organizations."
They banned the Socialist Equality Party’s candidate for US Vice President and other key figures.
Here is the full article:
www.wsws.org
Here is an article from the Socialist Workers Party, about Facebook banning their page:
swp.org.uk
Twitter is also banning plenty of anarchists, antiwar and other "unnacceptables". The mainstream media thinks they are useful idiots and are not really on their side so they won't cover the matter, the right-wing media well they don't care and think it's nothing compared to bans on right-wingers so won't cover it. They have no allies and if somehow average people hear of it and asks TWTR questions they'll say "oh ye these were clearly far right racists posing as left-wingers". Facebook banned known people, the socialist VP candidate, and the SWP page, so would be quite hard for them to call them undercover KKK members, although not impossible, "average" people are stupid enough to believe anything at that point.
They are killing small businesses (since 2009 there are in the USA more people working for large companies than small ones for the first time), they want more power and money... But... More people that work for large business will mean the comeback of workers unions and socialism & fascism and everything.
🍿
Analysis EU Sunday Opening Hello traders, I am showing you all possible entries. Catching small entries are good and safe from the opening of the market. I gave at least 3 entries on the 1 hour timeframe. Look at entry 2, Always enter at the right shoulders only if you miss your early entry on the high(just in case). If EU stop at that high, it will indicating that EU had made a bottom top on a higher timeframe. Is it that not beautiful lol? It make sense. So what I'm saying is don't see what you want, see what you see in the market basically. If you don't see, don't trade it. No patterns, Don't trade. Thank you for reading! Enjoy!
Further to my thoughts on LINK.......... Before you read this post, please pull up the ETH chart at its inception.
As I have posted before I like LINK and I like it even more when I compare it to the chart pattern of Ethereum (ETH) when it first came to the market. As we all know, markets move in cycles (up and down) and LINK's timing into the market cycle seems to be well placed. This asset will certainly be at the top of my list again moving into the 2021 cycle. Investors have had plenty of time to buy LINK at a low price during 2019, this is called the “Accumulation Phase” where you buy into an asset at a low price, and now as we move into somewhat of a Bull market the price and value of the investment increases. (See chart)
In this chart, the Blue jagged line indicates the price and the brown, red and blue lines represent the 20. 40 and 100 day Moving Averages (MA) respectively. Note that all three MA (3) lines are moving in an upwards position. This gives you an indication of where the price may be moving. The light blue rectangular box shows the price span of the asset from Jan. 2019 to today and shows the value of a $1000 investment which I suggested, today at $20,643.40. Not bad for 22 months.
I believe that LINK can quite possibly follow the same growth pattern of Ethereum (ETH) my 2nd largest position when it came to market. For example, ETH had the same “Accumulation Phase” over only 4 months from July to Oct 2017 and then proceeded to rise up 774 % in just two months during its early growth phase of 6 months. Once again, a 774% increase in 6 months beats keeping your money under your bed in a sock. *** Please go and pull up the ETH chart if you like.
At best, we can only work with the information that the numbers provide and postulate from there. No one can see into the future and we can only see 100%, what has happened in the past. I have to tell you that this information is “NOT” financial advice of any kind, but merely an academic/theoretical exercise for friends to consider, rather than concocting some sort of vegetarian Zucchini meatloaf for Sunday dinner that would make your cat puke.
I am holding LINK for at least 1-2 years to see where it goes. It's not a scalping or day trade position. Of course you have to monitor these things, especially the volatility of BTC in relation to LINK.
Have a pleasant day.
wmw
Toronto, Canada
Oct 28, 2020
2:47 am
Evolution of MACDMoving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD
The most popular indicator used in technical analysis, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), created by Gerald Appel. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator, designed to reveal changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a financial instrument’s price
Historical evolution of MACD,
- Gerald Appel created the MACD line,
- Thomas Aspray added the histogram feature to MACD
- Giorgos E. Siligardos created a leader of MACD
MACD employs two Moving Averages of varying lengths (which are lagging indicators) to identify trend direction and duration. Then, MACD takes the difference in values between those two Moving Averages (MACD Line) and an EMA of those Moving Averages (Signal Line) and plots that difference between the two lines as a histogram which oscillates above and below a center Zero Line. The histogram is used as a good indication of a security's momentum.
Mathematically expressed as;
macd = ma(source, fast_length) – ma(source, slow_length)
signal = ma(macd, signal_length)
histogram = macd – signal
where exponential moving average (ema) is in common use as a moving average (ma)
fast_length = 12
slow_length = 26
signal_length = 9
The MACD indicator is typically good for identifying three types of basic signals;
Signal Line Crossovers
A Signal Line Crossover is the most common signal produced by the MACD. On the occasions where the MACD Line crosses above or below the Signal Line, that can signify a potentially strong move. The standard interpretation of such an event is a recommendation to buy if the MACD line crosses up through the Signal Line (a "bullish" crossover), or to sell if it crosses down through the Signal Line (a "bearish" crossover). These events are taken as indications that the trend in the financial instrument is about to accelerate in the direction of the crossover.
Zero Line Crossovers
Zero Line Crossovers occur when the MACD Line crossed the Zero Line and either becomes positive (above 0) or negative (below 0). A change from positive to negative MACD is interpreted as "bearish", and from negative to positive as "bullish". Zero crossovers provide evidence of a change in the direction of a trend but less confirmation of its momentum than a signal line crossover
Divergence
Divergence is another signal created by the MACD. Simply, divergence occurs when the MACD and actual price are not in agreement. A "positive divergence" or "bullish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new low but the MACD does not confirm with a new low of its own. A "negative divergence" or "bearish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new high but the MACD does not confirm with a new high of its own. A divergence with respect to price may occur on the MACD line and/or the MACD Histogram
Moving Average Crossovers , another hidden signal that MACD Indicator identifies
Many traders will watch for a short-term moving average to cross above a longer-term moving average and use this to signal increasing upward momentum. This bullish crossover suggests that the price has recently been rising at a faster rate than it has in the past, so it is a common technical buy sign. Conversely, a short-term moving average crossing below a longer-term average is used to illustrate that the asset's price has been moving downward at a faster rate and that it may be a good time to sell.
Moving Average Crossovers in reality is Zero Line Crossovers, the value of the MACD indicator is equal to zero each time the two moving averages cross over each other. For easy interpretation by trades, Zero Line Crossovers are simply described as positive or negative MACD
False signals
Like any forecasting algorithm, the MACD can generate false signals. A false positive, for example, would be a bullish crossover followed by a sudden decline in a financial instrument. A false negative would be a situation where there is bearish crossover, yet the financial instrument accelerated suddenly upwards
What is “MACD-X” and Why it is “More Than MACD”
In its simples form, MACD-X implements variety of different calculation techniques applied to obtain MACD Line, ability to use of variety of different sources, including Volume related sources, and can be plotted along with MACD in the same window and all those features are available and presented within a single indicator, MACD-X
Different calculation techniques lead to different values for MACD Line, as will further discuss below, and as a consequence the signal line and the histogram values will differentiate accordingly. Mathematical calculation of both signal line and the histogram remain the same.
Main features of MACD-X ;
1- Introduces different proven techniques applied on MACD calculation, such as MACD-Histogram, MACD-Leader and MACD-Source, besides the traditional MACD (MACD-TRADITIONAL)
• MACD-Traditional, by Gerald Appel
It is the MACD that we know, stated as traditional just to avoid confusion with other techniques used with this study
• MACD-Histogram, by Thomas Aspray
The MACD-Histogram measures the distance between MACD and its signal line (the 9-day EMA of MACD). Aspray developed the MACD-Histogram to anticipate signal line crossovers in MACD. Because MACD uses moving averages and moving averages lag price, signal line crossovers can come late and affect the reward-to-risk ratio of a trade. Bullish or bearish divergences in the MACD-Histogram can alert chartists to an imminent signal line crossover in MACD
The MACD-Histogram represents the difference between MACD and its 9-day EMA, the signal line. Mathematically,
macdx = macd - ma(macd, signal_length)
Aspray's contribution served as a way to anticipate (and therefore cut down on lag) possible MACD crossovers which are a fundamental part of the indicator.
Here come a question, what if repeat the same calculations once more (macdh2 = macdh - ma(macdh, signal_length), will it be even better, this question will remain to be tested
• MACD-Leader, by Giorgos E. Siligardos, PhD
MACD Leader has the ability to lead MACD at critical situations. Almost all smoothing methods encounter in technical analysis are based on a relative-weighted sum of past prices, and the Leader is no exception. The concealed weights of MACD Leader are such that more relative weight is used in the more recent prices than the respective weights used by the components of MACD. In effect, the Leader expresses more changes in average price dynamics for the recent price movement than MACD, thus eventually leading MACD, especially when significant trend changes are about to take place.
Siligardos creates two less-laggard moving averages indicators in its formula using the same periods as follows
Indicator1 = ma(source, fast_length) + ma(source - ma(source, fast_length), fast_length)
Indicator2 = ma(source, slow_length) + ma(source - ma(source, slow_length), slow_length)
and then take the difference:
Indicator1 - Indicator2
The result is a new MACD Leader indicator
macdx = macd + ma(source - fast_ma, fast_length) - ma(source - slow_ma, slow_length)
• MACD-Source, a custom experimental interpretation of mine,
MACD Source, presents an application of MACD that evaluates Source/MA Ratio, relatively with less lag, as a basis for MACD Line, also can be expressed as source convergence/divergence to its moving average. Among the various techniques for removing the lag between price and moving average (MA) of the price, one in particular stands out: the addition to the moving average of a portion of the difference between the price and MA. MACD Source, is based on signal length mean of the difference between Source and average value of shot length and long length moving average of the source (Source/MA Ratio), where the source is actual value and hence no lag and relatively less lag with the average value of moving average of the source . Mathematically expressed as,
macdx = ma(source - avg( ma(source, fast_length), ma(source, slow_length) ), signal_length)
MACD Source provides relatively early crossovers comparing to MACD and better momentum direction indications, assuming the lengths are set to same values
For further details, you are invited to check the following two studies, where the first seeds were sown of the MACD-Source idea
Price Distance to its Moving Averages study, adapts the idea of “Prices high above the moving average (MA) or low below it are likely to be remedied in the future by a reverse price movement", presented in an article by Denis Alajbeg, Zoran Bubas and Dina Vasic published in International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management
First MACD like interpretation comes with the second study named as “P-MACD”, where P stands for price, P-MACD study attempts to display relationship between Price and its 20 and 200-period moving average. Calculations with P-MACD were based on price distance (convergence/divergence) to its 200-period moving average, and moving average convergence/divergence of 20-period moving average to 200-period moving average of price.
Now as explained above, MACD Source is a one adapted with traditional MACD, where Source stands for Price, Volume Indicator etc, any source applicable with MACD concept
2- Allows usage of variety of different sources, including Volume related indicators
The most common usage of Source for MACD calculation is close value of the financial instruments price. As an experimental approach, this study will allow source to be selected as one of the following series;
• Current Close Price (close)
• Average of High, Low, and Close Price (hlc3)
• On Balance Volume (obv)
• Accumulation Distribution (accdist)
• Price Volume Trend (pvt)
Where,
-Current Close Price and Average of High, Low, and Close Price are price actions of the financial instrument
-Accumulation Distribution is a volume based indicator designed to measure underlying supply and demand
-On Balance Volume (OBV), is a momentum indicator that measures positive and negative volume flow
-Price Volume Trend (PVT) is a momentum based indicator used to measure money flow
3- Can be plotted along with MACD in the same window using the same scaling
Default setting of MACD-X will display MACD-Source with Current Close Price as a source and traditional MACD can be plotted eighter as a companion of MACD-X or can be selected to be plotted alone.
Applying both will add ability to compare, or use as a confirmation of one other
In case, traditional MACD Is plotted along with MACD-X to avoid misinterpreting, the lines plotted, the area between MACD-X Line and Signal-X Line is highlighted automatically, even if the highlight option not selected. Otherwise highlight will be applied only if that option selected
4- 4C Histogram
Histogram is plotted with four colors to emphasize the momentum and direction
5- Customizable
Additional to ability of selecting Calculation Method, Source, plotting along with MACD, there are few other option that allows users to customize the MACD-X indicator
Lengths are configurable, default values are set as 12, 26, 9 respectively for fast, slow and smoothing length. Setting lengths to 8,21,5 respectively Is worth checking, slower length moving averages will lead to less lag and earlier reaction to price actions but yet requires a caution and back testing before applying
Highlight the area between MACD-X Line and Signal-X Line, with colors emphasising the direction
Label can be added to display Calculation Method, Source and Length settings, the aim of this label is to server only as a reminder to trades to be aware of settings while they are occupied with charts, analysis etc.
Here comes another question, which is of more importance having the reminder or having the indicators with multi timeframe feature? Build-in Multi Time Frame features of Pine is not supported when labels and lines introduced in the script, there are other methods but brings complexity. To be studied further, this version will be with labels for time being.
EPILOGUE
MACD-X is an alternative variant of MACD, the insight/signals provided by MACD are also applicable to MACD-X with early and clear warnings for the changes in the trend.
If MACD is essential to your analysis, then it is my guess that after using the MACD-X for a while and familiarizing yourself with its unique character and personality, you will make it an inseparable companion to other indicators in your charts.
The various signals generated by MACD/MACD-X are easily interpreted and very few indicators in technical analysis have proved to be more reliable than the MACD, and this relatively simple indicator can quickly be incorporated into any short-term trading strategy
LCX - Early adapter possibilityLCX
Market Cap: $ 7,841,951 USD
Circulating Supply: 529.038.953 LCX
Total Supply: 1,000,000,000 (now 956,682,375 LCX -> 43,317,625 LCX already burned)
What is LCX: Multi exchange platform
Trading in 1 place across multiple exchanges with smart order capability
Video platform: youtu.be
Video smart order: youtu.be
Trade: long term
No advice to buy but to do DYOR on this.
Grtz and give me a thumbs up if you like this post
Very meaningful bullish signs.Although this ones are weak bullish signs, their significance resides
on the level where it is occuring.
There could be action coming on the LooneyThere are opportunities for CADJPY possibly on higher time frames and on 15 min microtrends.
ELFBTC Potential big moves comingEarly stages of this idea but something to watch how it progresses. Retracement to our buy area will make me very interested in this trade. 130%+ profits is possible
Bitcoin: BTCUSD First Signs of a Bottom in SightBitcoin BTCUSD Update Next Buy and Sell Points
We have a low here on Bitstamp at 5920, on Bitfinex at
exactly 6000 and on Coinbase at 5873 - so far. Earlier in
London Bitcoin has been driven up through the upper parallel
that has been controlling this sell-wave from yesterday. It's
the first early sign that this is getting close to the bottom
now. It's finally trying to put up a fight here at these lower
levels...so on downside will not be looking for another short
unless 5900 is broken on Bitstamp and 6000 is broken on
Bitfinex - and even then will only be for 300 points or so to
5636 and if so will be looking to reverse long again at this
point if struck with stops 100 below
On the upside it's nothing more than a speccy buy at 6300
with a stop below 6200 - it's more risky than buying the
breakout as we don't know for sure that 6200 will hold out
yet. Otherwise we stand by for a potential break above the
upper parallel, looking for a successful restest from above
once broken...it then has to break above 6610 and hold there
to give us confirmation that the rally is good to go - look to
enter long positions if we see this price action develop.
Otherwise will look to get long again from lower levels later.
go pro easy earning play looks like we are at a yearly support buy in wait for earnings to near ! reset stop loss often !!
Inflection patterns early timing indicator of inflection in WTIinflection point
This study is not complete, and it is not intended to be yard art, but I lack the tools on my TV to better illustrate for now. These few days should demonstrate the idea.
While looking at the ytd overlay of wti to Dxy, I found that the overall pattern in sync with wti. When reviewed at 15min I could see a direct corresponding pattern in wti & dxy. I did not look for % of move or overall movement range, but rather corresponding inflection points and direction. The chart clearly shows those matching inflections occurred in DXY about 10min before WTI.
This is not to say that dxy and wti track or mirror.. they both have their own future. I does tell me if I will see an inflection on next 15 min candle in WTI.... I think ? I doesn't say size of inflection, but in general .05 changes in DXY with pronounce marked change in wti. ( 10 min early)
I wish there was a tool to better illustrate.. I'm sure there is, I'm just old & slow.
I will track and update... good luck
The early bird catches the wormBut sometimes also chokes and dies quicker if it's a fake trick worm.
Huh?
Going long on USDJPY. There is nothing positive for JPY right now.
