EL (Estée Lauder) Swing Trade Setup — June 15, 2025🔻 EL (Estée Lauder) Swing Trade Setup — June 15, 2025
💡 Ticker: EL
📉 Setup Type: Bearish Swing — Weekly PUT
📅 Expiry: June 20, 2025
⏱ Entry Timing: At Market Open
💬 Confidence: 70%
🧠 Model Insights & Technical Context
Across the board, our four AI models (Grok, Llama, DeepSeek, Gemini) provide the following signals:
✅ Short-Term Weakness:
Price is below all key EMAs (5-min and daily charts).
RSI is low (~30), near oversold but not reversing yet.
MACD is bearish and gaining downward momentum.
✅ Options Sentiment:
Very heavy put open interest at the $65 strike (4,935 contracts).
Max pain at $70 suggests potential price drag upward, but not immediate.
⚠️ Risk Flags:
Oversold conditions might cause a short-term bounce.
Gemini model recommends a $70 call if price holds support at open.
News risk remains (e.g., the death of Leonard Lauder) and volatility is rising (VIX ↑).
✅ Recommended Trade
💼 Strategy: Naked PUT (short bias)
🎯 Strike: $65.00
🕰 Entry Price (Limit): ~$0.65
🎯 Profit Target: ~$0.97 (≈+50%)
🛑 Stop Loss: ~$0.33 (≈–50%)
📆 Expiration: June 20, 2025
📈 Confidence Level: 70%
This setup reflects the dominant bearish view with strong technical momentum and favorable OI at the $65 strike. The trade benefits from liquidity and an attractive risk/reward skew.
🔍 Key Considerations
⚠️ If EL bounces sharply at open and holds above ~$67.30, the Gemini model’s call trade may activate. Monitor early action closely.
📊 News risk and market volatility may distort option pricing. Manage size and slippage carefully.
📉 If price reverses and breaks above $68.50, bearish thesis is invalidated.
💬 What’s your move on EL this week? Bearish into expiration or expecting a mean-reversion bounce?
Drop your thoughts 👇 or follow along in the QS trading room.
