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Elgatotrade

China is about to decided whether retailiate or not. Donald Trump and hes administration went to far and to many direction. EU and China at the same time is just too much but tretening the whole world is just an enormous startegic error. He made woke up not1 but 170 bear at the same time while the bears were sleeping and dreaming. And the dream ended. The USA not enymore realiable, trustworty, and therefore friendly country. The bears are dissapointed and angrys. They dont wanna have does fals dreams at the next time, and its seems that Trump is in a deadend roed. Honestly this story can be continued for pages but lets just speak about the an abnormal situation. BONDS UP 10Y 5Y - trough agressive selling of US debt which is really will tied up the FED hands if the inflation does not happen due to the lack of the tarrifs. 10Y is at the 4,3 The questions can china put the USA in a situation then interest rate cat wount help on the longrun since China and may some of their contries under their influence reaching high detach in a US10Y 5Y and interest rate relation and sending US in to debt cicle. The slow one is that that will slowly sell as much debt of US that they are cancelling the fed rate cuts. The fast one is sending aup rates by at least 6% and making the big boys on the stock market to capitulate. I will update and elaborate this idea better , but I hope if someone reads gets some hints.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by ElGatoTrade
Having no position is also position- EURUSD - Official Tarrifs Dear Traders, Investors and every interested person I dont going to lie Im trough hard weeks maybe months after Trump became president although I’m sure you too. As of 01/04/2025 we are just few hours away to enjoy our rollercoaster ride in the amusement park of the USA GOVERMENT. Their old-new attractions is about tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. Those who’s are not familiar what is a tariff I recommend reading this part those, whose already going to the bed and waking up with it may skip it the following section. A **tariff** is a **tax imposed by a government on imported or exported goods**. It's one of the tools countries use in international trade policy. Here's a breakdown: Types of Tariffs : 1. Import Tariff – tax on goods coming **into** a country. ( We are dealing with this curently) 2. **Export Tariff** – tax on goods going **out** of a country (less common). Why Governments Use Tariffs: Protect domestic industries by making foreign products more expensive. Generate revenue for the government. -Retaliate against unfair trade practices or tariffs from other countries. Example: If the U.S. places a **20% tariff** on imported French wine, that means any French wine imported into the U.S. will have an additional 20% tax added to its price. This makes domestic wine relatively cheaper, helping local producers compete . ___________________________________________________________________________ As of April 1, 2025, President Donald Trump has implemented or announced tariffs affecting a wide range of goods from multiple countries. Here's a summary of the current tariff measures Tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 1, 2025: President Trump signed executive orders imposing a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking. -March 4, 2025: These tariffs took effect, leading to retaliatory measures from both countries. April 2, 2025: Tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico, which had been temporarily exempted, are set to be enforced. Tariffs on China -February 1, 2025: An additional 10% tariff was imposed on imports from China due to the country's alleged failure to curb the export of fentanyl precursors and address money laundering activities. March 4, 2025: The tariff rate on Chinese imports was increased to 20% Global Tariffs - COMMING April 2, 2025 President Trump has declared this date as "Liberation Day," marking the implementation of new tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalances. Reciprocal Tariffs The administration plans to enforce tariffs that match the rates other countries impose on U.S. goods, effectively applying a **20% tariff** on most imports. Automobile Imports: A specific 25% tariff on imported passenger vehicles, light trucks, and key automobile parts is set to take effect on April 3, 2025. Tariffs on the European Union- Because we treated very badly..... -February 26, 2025: President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the European Union, with a particular focus on the automotive sector. Secondary Tariffs on Oil Imports March 2025: The administration has threatened secondary tariffs on countries importing oil from Russia and Iran. This means that nations purchasing oil from these countries could face U.S. tariffs if they continue such trade while also engaging with the American market. ____________________________________________________________________________ In case of you get lost between the dates please take look at the Comprehensive Tariff Table – President Trump (2025) as of 01/04/2025 ____________________________________________________________________________ Hereafter I would like turn your attention to the period of 28/02/2025 - 19/03/2025 What caused this relentless and, for many traders, painful +5.35% upside move under 19 days? 🇩🇪 Germany has unveiled a comprehensive fiscal strategy involving substantial investments in both infrastructure and defense sectors over the next decade. Here's a breakdown of the planned expenditures: Infrastructure Investment: €500 Billion Special Fund : The government has established a €500 billion special fund dedicated to infrastructure and climate-related projects over a 12-year period. This fund is designed to modernize critical systems, including energy grids, transport networks, digital infrastructure, education, and healthcare facilities. Notably, €100 billion of this fund is earmarked specifically for climate action initiatives aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. Defense Spending: Exemption from Debt Brake: In a significant policy shift, Germany has amended its constitutional "debt brake" to exempt defense and security expenditures exceeding 1% of GDP from borrowing limits. This adjustment effectively removes the previous cap on defense spending, allowing for increased investments in military capabilities. Projected Defense Expenditure: While exact figures may vary based on annual GDP and specific defense needs, this exemption is anticipated to facilitate approximately €400 billion in additional defense spending over the next 10 years. This fiscal policy measures does not take place often, but honestly signs were on the market that something is cooking at the back: Someone knows something that I dont. And you neither. XETR:DAX from 01/January/2025 was not too much reason for the steady increase in the shadow of the trade war. FX:EURUSD just look at the price actions from 01/January/2025 till the German gov announcement. I could not explained for myself fundamentally what is happening. Why I see huge positioning with towards the upside when we still facing measures which can push major economies in the EURO AREA as France and Germany more deeper under the water where they already been.... No economic data refuted my findings. Anyway, after all I said to myself let’s wait meanwhile, I was shorting the EUR because I felt the possible damage of the planned measures are not correctly priced in. (Interest rate parity, industrial production under 50 ( which means contraction) and a few other things. ) 03/03/2025 Thats when everything got sense. Lesson learned: If you feel something do not suppress it especially when the signs are that strongs as above mentioned period. The effect: All Europen goverment bond yields skyrocketed TVC:DE10 TVC:FR10 Why ? The German plans means that the goverment needs money and market said well i need return so I will finance you +3% and 2,30% Bonds market are the real drivers behind the currency movements and this case the effect was drastic. In order to buy eur denominated bonds you need euro, therefore you exchange your currency to euro. ___________________________________________________________________________ Tomorrow questions is whats will be new in terms of tarrifs? I do expect that soon the inflation will edge higher in the US which can trigger US bonds yield to increase significantly, but is will lead for short term dollar gain. USA is playing with the fire since if their avarage debt interest payments will be +5% thats will open darker boxes soon than in 2008. Much darker. So thats why I would enjoy the short term currency gain which is autonomous and than exchange my dollar to euro everywhere.
by ElGatoTrade
Quick update The German elections went as expected, the next step is to form a viable coalition which is of course we'll have some ups and downs, but generally speaking I'm bullish on the euro for several reasons. First of all, the biggest treat that Donald Trump will impose some kind of tariffs on the European Union is high but also the impact is not as severe as we anticipate. Well he can do it, as he wish but at the same time European Union also can hit hard, on the other hand if the Ukrain War will end, that will give a substantial boost for the European economy. The USA is isn't in the situation where he can take several front trade Wars with everyone , without literally destroying their own economy. Just to bemore exact they cannot let that interest rates getting higher since it will directly affect the government interest payment on their future debts issuence which is already freakinghigh. At least not now . Inflation in the European Union is coming down which is also indicating that may the ECB have to cut once again the interest rate, that's that's not matter anymore because more or less it's already baked into the price, and we are already looking for the next cycle of red hikes, but until then this is a one-way Direction. It's up. Do you say it sooner or later will be forced also to lower the interest rates which gradually will take out the interest of the US dollar, hence the Euro again just getting another catalyst. Price targe 1,0617-1,0650 DEEP buy 1,0375 FROM THE CURRENT LEVELS ONLY MODERATE BUYS. FOCUS IN PULLBACKS AND BIGGEN THAN -0,75%
Long
by ElGatoTrade
JOLTS OPENING 02/02/2025After some us survived the last few trading days we just heading to another crucial event. JOLTS opening - A survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions: 1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position. 2. The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time. 3. There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Expectations - Minimal growth - but the trend pointing to that empoloyers are expanding their workforce. Under 1.0355 its recomended to short, but better to wait for data, and let the market calm down and clear the gap and close above it. we can see easily a 3rd rejection on the gap glosing which is not a good sign. More over Trump did played out hes tarrifs cards with EU. - thus its can shake the market. GL.
Long
by ElGatoTrade
INTRADAY DXY -CHART -showing at leat one more attempt to confirmThe dxy technical challenge shows a possible uptrend which is can be confirmed by the data coming at 2:30- our suggestion is that the data will be positive for the US dollar since yesterday ATP no phone payroll came strong and it's going to be a strong indication. If the data confirms our logic, we expect another 0.40% positive appreciation of the dollar against the euro. Have to mention I'll be on at a critical into the point where the market right now is ranging, clearly showing that major players is waiting for the data, and then the price field break out. As we get closer to the weekend I do believe more and more Market participants like the position themselves to be safe and file into the dollar if so during the weekend the government of United States will hint or impose tariffs on the European Union.
TVC:DXY
by ElGatoTrade
EURUSD - One step up - one step downIt's just amazing to see on different time frames how the price actions can be so confusing if we just looking one time frame. If you don't care with the fundamental data which is right now at this moment were the initial jobless claims, which to be honest doesn't really show us any surprise it's became neutral, its indicating that the ranging what we can see on 4H time frame will continue. At the same time at 4 :00 PM within 15 minutes we will get some housing data which is going to show us the new building permits , then ongoing sales, and that's how we can use this fundamental data to take some directions for the rest of the day. Until this data will come the market just doing what the technicals are dictating to it. It's between the daily time frame has an ascending triangle formation, which is at this crucial long-term support levels only allowing us Traders to make bad decisions right now either you going to take along or short Your Position will quickly became green and then suddenly red, red and then suddenly green. ( not to mention the ethics option expiries on this day which is also another element in this market what I just starting to discover ) But it's 4:00 p.m the direction will change and it's going to be that your position will be very green or very red just because of you didn't want to wait for for the fundamental data even though you wasn't forced to take a position. That's what we call gambling. But gambling and being smart and getting ahead of the competitors which are the other Traders hedge funds Banks Pension funds whoever, is just a slight difference. Personality I think that if I can find this narrow route, inside in this blurry word of trading, maybe one day I can be among the best just like you. Thank you for reading- ElGatoTrade
by ElGatoTrade
The insane battle of EURO- TRUMP and futureAs of today we are waiting for the US JOB-data. If somehow its will show a sudden spike in claims the EURO will get relieffed. 14:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,873K 14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 220K 217K www.investing.com I do not support Donald Trump since he's policy & politics is against Europe who's already in big trouble so hes won was literally the last spike in Europe ballon, eventough I do agree with many of his thoughts at the same time he's not even a threat for Europe but for his own country since hes future steps will broke USA from the debt side. Now everyone is feel that they are sitting in the winning boat although its already sinking . Thats the base- GO EUROPE - STOP the MIGRATION and we will be a better place. CASE1- Spike in US Initial Job Claims - EUR= 1,590 initial based on interest rate parity 60DAYS forward contract. CASE2- Job market shows resilience - May we continue the raging 1,0480-1,0560 for an other week. ( Require more technical approach this scenario at tha same time extreemly dangerous distrobution zone, those whos are out better to stay out until its gets cleared. VALID FOR 1W. Case-3 - Job data shows extreme resilience : New claims is below 170K- In this case EUR will target straight down to 1,04400 and may further downfrom this level -1,5% .
by ElGatoTrade
EUR/USD Summary October + Most important Economic events Thursday, October 10, 2024 14:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.3% 14:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.3% 2.5% 14:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.2% 14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 229K 225K 19:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction 4.015% In case there is no negative surprise in the US data I do believe that this is the most realistic scenario. 1. Technical Indicators (Charts Analysis) 4Hour Chart: The EUR/USD shows a recent downtrend with the 50 and 200period moving averages (MA) pointing downwards. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on this timeframe is in the oversold area but not deeply, which may suggest a possible shortterm bounce, but the downtrend could continue if the RSI doesn’t move back above 50. 1Day Chart: Here, EUR/USD also shows a downward trajectory. The RSI is just under 50, indicating weak momentum. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is in a negative territory, confirming bearish pressure. The downtrend could continue, given the position of the RSI and CCI. Weekly Chart: The larger trend on the weekly chart shows some stabilization, with the 200week MA acting as a potential support level. However, RSI around 51 on this timeframe suggests neutral momentum, which could imply that any major movements are more likely influenced by economic fundamentals. 2. Economic Data Impact Recent economic data from the U.S., such as Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Services PMI, came out strong, which generally strengthens the USD. Meanwhile, the European inflation data, including the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), indicates slightly higherthanexpected inflation but hasn’t significantly impacted the EUR. Given the strong U.S. economic indicators and the uncertainty in Europe, the USD is showing resilience, which adds pressure on the EUR/USD pair to stay bearish or rangebound unless European data strengthens significantly. 3. Interest Rate Parity Consideration Using interest rate parity (IRP), which factors in the interest rate differential between the EUR and USD, we can anticipate some pressure on the EUR/USD. Currently: The Eurozone’s interest rate is 4%, while the U.S. interest rate is 5%. With a higher interest rate in the U.S., investors might prefer holding USD assets, which would lead to a lower EUR/USD exchange rate as the EUR depreciates relative to the USD over time. Projection: What Could Be the Next Move? 1. ShortTerm: Based on the 4hour and daily technical indicators, there could be a shortterm bounce in EUR/USD if it reaches an oversold level, but the overall trend still appears bearish. The 50 and 200 MAs act as resistance zones. 2. Medium to LongTerm: With the interest rate differential favoring the USD and current U.S. economic strength, EUR/USD may continue to face downward pressure. The weekly support around the 200 MA could potentially provide some stability, but if this level breaks, further downside could be expected. 3. Fundamental Trigger: If there is any unexpected dovish statement from the Federal Reserve or stronger than expected Eurozone economic data, it could provide some support to the EUR. Otherwise, USD strength is likely to dominate, keeping EUR/USD bearish. In summary, EUR/USD may see a shortterm bounce, but the overall bias remains bearish due to the interest rate differential, strong U.S. economic data, and technical indicators signaling weakness. Let me know if you'd like further clarification on any part of this analysis.
by ElGatoTrade
SZEPT 12-ECB as expected decreased interest rates.14:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) 3.50% 3.50% 3.75% 14:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 3.90% 4.50% 14:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 3.65% 3.65% 4.25% At the same time we got US economic data which is in my readings leaning towards that FED will cut only by 0,25 bps. 14:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,850K 1,850K 1,845K 14:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% 0.2% -0.2% 14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 230K 227K 228K 14:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% www.investing.com - All data can be find here on the day of 12 of sept. Im do worried that altough we should see that EURO is continue to its down-side way its will revisite 1.106 an if so than 1.107-to 1.11020 range until FED. Its fundamentally not logical but technicals show right-now a different picture. RSI 4H indicating up-ward pressure 50 day and 200 day moving average indicating downside in the next 15 days.
by ElGatoTrade
EURO-STEP-UPEconomic calendar as of 11/07/2024 ( GMT +2:00 Budapest) (LEFT to RIGHT ) Actual(?) Forecast Previous 14:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,860K 1,858K 14:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.2% 14:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.4% 3.4% 14:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% 0.0% 14:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.1% 3.3% 14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 236K 238K The above mentioned data will determine the next move in EURUSD and CADEUR ( Correleting pair so choose one to trade. EURUSD for those whos likes to have a long position, CADEUR FOR SHORTERS.) The TWO most important data is Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) - From Februar 12, 2024 we can see that slowly the elevated interest rate enviroment transioning into the real economy thus FED slowly will change the tone about the future interest rate, at this point zou already should have a buyng position, since violent moves wont allowe you to participate at fair price.
Long
by ElGatoTrade
Second Try of Break outIn the last two weeks, we have observed that FX:EURUSD is earnestly trying to establish a new base, aiming to finally take off. Unfortunately, this cannot happen if certain variables don't change urgently. If not, EURUSD faces significant downturns repeatedly. What are these variables? First and foremost, US inflation needs to decline more sharply. This could occur if the job market cools down, or in other words, if we start to see lay-offs. It's not widely discussed that fewer people are entering the job market. This is primarily because there aren't many suitable candidates in the US who are both qualified for the available jobs and willing to work. Job vacancies can be misleading . While the number of jobs requiring extensive knowledge and education is on the rise, job vacancies remain high. Naturally, in the event of a serious recession, these vacancies will diminish until the economy finds a new equilibrium." US goverment bonds TVC:US10Y TVC:US02Y The fact that nobody willing to buy them is driving up the yields which is supporting very strongly the TVC:DXY we need to see bond yields falling which is honestly higly unlikely right now. Altough... We are just 14 minutes away to receive the Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast is ONLY 212K - If we wanna see the euro flying we need to see around 300 and above . DO NOT FORGET that today at 18:00( Budapest - Time ) Fed Chair Powell Speaks. Trade Safe- ElGato
by ElGatoTrade
FED vs ECB - Soft Landing As of today Thursday, December 14, 2023- ECB ( European Central Bank ) at 14:00 PM ( Budapest Time GMT+1 ) will disclouse their interest rate decision in the following categories. 11:00 EUR EU Leaders Summit 14:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) 14:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 14:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement 14:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) Over the last 2Mto 1M , depending on the data frequency, such as weekly or montly we have observed that, generally speaking, inflation is under control in the Eurozone. Therefore, any further rate hikes from the ECB are absolutely unnecessary and would cause serious issues in the Italian and German economies. Even though a rate hike would cause an immediate surge in EUR/USD, which is certainly in my interest since I hold a long position, in the case of a rate hike, I would close it nearly immediately. I expect that today the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged to allow time for the effects of their previous measures to fully transmit into the economy
Long
by ElGatoTrade
1
Fireworks continues - Uncontrolled -Can we do circuit breaker Circuit breaker level - Lets see. We are waiting for FED officials which is mostly not that interesting , but now they can wipe the market with few words - the opposite also works. Do not forget : Control the inflation means the FED wanna see huge lay-offs. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Longer view If you see job-market report shows layoff you buy if not sideline or if you wish just open a short. VALID UNTIL 08/02/2023 - 18:00 Budapest Time
U
by ElGatoTrade