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Elliott Wave

GBP/USD – Bearish Shift Confirmed | Structure Breakout + AO DiveThe market just gave us a textbook setup on GBP/USD! 🔍 Analysis Overview: A clear bearish divergence has formed between price and the AO (Awesome Oscillator), signaling potential trend exhaustion at the top. We saw a rising wedge break to the downside, with a structure breakout confirming a shift in momentum. Price decisively broke below the 1.36109 support level, indicating bearish control. 📊 Technical Confluence: AO shows bearish divergence, confirming weakening bullish momentum. Structure breakout from the wedge pattern aligns with AO signals. Fibonacci retracement and extension levels give a clear target zone: 🎯 TP1 area: 1.35805 – 1.35895 (Fib 1.618–1.786 extensions) ⏳ What I'm Watching: I'm now waiting for a pullback to retest the broken structure (possibly around the 0.382–0.618 Fib levels: 1.36242–1.36323). A bearish reaction here could provide a high-probability reentry opportunity. 💡Trade Idea Summary: Bias: Bearish Signal: Divergence + Structure Break TP Zone: 1.35805 – 1.35895 Watch for: Pullback to retest broken structure before continuation 📈 Stay alert and manage your risk wisely!
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
GOLD → Correction for confirmation before growthFX:XAUUSD is recovering due to increased demand as a safe-haven asset. After breaking through local trend resistance, an upward channel is beginning to form on the chart. On Monday, gold tested the 3295-3300 zone (liquidity zone) and, against the backdrop of incoming economic data, is buying back the decline, forming a rather interesting pattern that could lead to continued growth, but there is a but! Investors are reacting to President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on imports from a dozen countries starting August 1. In addition, the main question is the Fed's interest rate decision. The regulator is likely to leave the rate unchanged due to inflation risks. Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is supporting interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. The market is awaiting further news and the publication of the Fed minutes on Wednesday. Resistance levels: 3345, 3357, 3396 Support levels: 3320, 3311, 3295 A correction to support is forming. If the bulls hold their ground within the upward channel and above the key areas of interest, the focus will shift to 3345, a resistance level that could hold the market back from a possible rise. A breakout of this zone would trigger a rise to 3357-3396. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
23
Dollar Index-Stops At Gap ResistanceAfter just a temporary setback in stocks and a brief move higher in the dollar earlier this week, we’re once again seeing a strong reversal across the board. This comes after Donald Trump extended the July 9th tariff deadline to August 1st, giving more time for trade negotiations with various countries. That brought some optimism back into the markets, and if stocks continue to gain, the dollar index is likely to remain in its downtrend. In fact, the dollar index stopped right at the June 26th gap near the 97.70 resistance level. We believe that the corrective price action from July 1st could now be coming to an end, and the market may resume lower—especially if we get a breakout below the corrective channel support near 97. GH
TVC:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
SPY July 8th 2025SPY July 8th 2025 Day 2 of journaling my trades. Ended Monday green but not without mistakes. I am heading into Tuesday with more of a neutral outlook. Previous resistance will be tested as support and could find buyers or fail to do so. As I did yesterday, I will give a breakdown of what I’m seeing on all of my charts for both strategies. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Bullish Analysis Renko: The price pulled back on Monday, as expected, and may continue lower to retest the top of the channel (around $615). Fisher Transform is still in positive territory and strong support at that level could lead to the price reaching higher highs. 500R ($5) chart: Similar structure to the Renko chart. I’m using a higher range here to compensate for volatility. Just like with the Renko chart, a bounce on the top of the channel would be a healthy pullback before higher highs. There is a high volume node on the volume profile, so interest from buyers here could be strong enough to prevent the price from falling back into the channel. 4h chart: The last three candles have the appearance of a healthy pullback. There was declining volume and the most recent candle is somewhat of a bullish hammer. I also have an anchored VWAP going back to June 30 that the price seems to be respecting. The price bounced off of it in the first 4h candle on Monday and managed to close above it after a dip during the formation of the second candle. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Bearish Analysis Renko: Same chart with a lower box size ($1 instead of $2). As you can see, there is bearish divergence on Fisher Transform. The price also found likely temporary support before reaching the top of the channel, suggesting that it could make at least one more wave down if a larger corrective trend unfolds. The 1.382 ($614) and 1.618 ($612) Fibonacci extensions will be important reference points to watch. I would feel less confident about the strength of the bullish trend if the price goes beyond the 1.618 extension. 200R ($2) Range: The Range chart in this layout is the only one that I am including extended hours data on, so the channels have slightly different levels. On this chart I am using two trend lines on the upper level to illustrate the possible areas of support/previous resistance. If the price breaks back into the channel and below the 34VWMA, it could signal a trend failure and the price could return to $600 or lower. Volume bars on range charts also offer a different perspective than on time-based candlesticks. Here, since each bar represents a $2 move up or down, the volume inside of each bar can show the level of effort it took to move the price either direction, whereas the time-based charts are simply showing the level of interest during a particular time period. For this reason, consistently high volume during this last move up could be a sign that there is a larger presence of sellers. Lastly, there is Fisher Transform divergence here as well. 1h chart: CME_MINI:ES1! is green overnight, signaling continuation of the bounce we saw at the end of the day on Monday. With a tighter channel, the top was rejected in a classic bearish reversal candle pattern above the channel and made a clean break down below the channel. The price found support just above the anchored VWAP from the start of the channel, so there could still be institutional interest around $617 and below. If this correction were to unfold into three distinct waves, a 0.618 pullback (to the 0.382 level of the fib extension; $623) would retest the previous demand of the channel. A rejection here could have the price looking for support in a lower volume zone. A (c) wave could take the price down to $615-$611. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Options Analysis As I have explained, I think it is possible that we will see the price hit $623 during the Tuesday session, so it could be an important level for ATM options. TVC:VIX held its level on Monday after the gap up but failed to make progress - finding resistance at the 200MA on the 1h chart. The rounding bottom and bullish candles on the 30m AMEX:SPY chart looks better than other timeframes. From a Wyckoff Method perspective, however, it looks like puts are in a distribution pattern and calls are in accumulation. Volume is low for both of these contracts, but especially lower on the Put option, indicating lack of interest. If the put contract makes a lower low on Tuesday (below $3.55 or above $620.75 for SPY), this particular contract could break into a downtrend. Calls seem to be the safer bet since the price has already made a higher high and has wider support. An ideal entry would be a false breakout at $0.95 ($621.00 for SPY) or a retest of the top of the channel after a true upside breakout at $1.50 ($622.50 for SPY) The upside breakout possibility would have stronger confirmation, so it would be worth the higher premium price. This movement would need to be accompanied by high volume, of course. For puts, I would like to see higher volume at the bottom of the range, since it seems like the underlying price will open higher. I would probably switch to a contract with a lower strike since $623 would be ITM but for the sake of this idea, I would target entry of $623p around $3.65 ($620.75 for SPY). +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Targets Calls: Enter $622.50, Target $628-$630, Stop Loss $621 Puts: Enter: $620.75, Target $615, Stop Loss $621.50 To summarize, I like the risk/reward and volume better for calls, and it fits my original thesis, however if volume increases on puts at these elevated levels, it will be important to get in at a price that minimizes risk exposure to take advantage of a deeper correction.
AMEX:SPY
by ap769
#Nifty directions and levels for July 8th:Good morning, Friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for July 8th: Market Overview The global markets have a moderately bullish sentiment, while our local markets are showing a moderately bearish sentiment. Gift Nifty is indicating a neutral to slightly negative start of around 10 points today. So, what can we expect today? Last evening, the Dow Jones fell more than 1%, but Gift Nifty didn’t reflect that. However, our markets continued to trade within a range, maintaining a moderately bearish bias. So, there’s nothing new; we can follow the same sentiment we saw in the previous session. This means if the market pulls back initially, we may see a minor pullback followed by some consolidation. This is my first variation (current view). On the other hand, if the decline shows a solid structure and breaks the immediate support level, we can expect the correction to continue. If that happens, it could mark the beginning of a C wave or 3rd wave of the correction. This is my alternate view.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
1
GBPJPY Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends We are witnessing the formation of a complete Elliott wave pattern on the GBPJPY chart. These waves from 1 to 5 are quite clear and you can even count their subwaves (especially the microwaves of the main wave 3). Now wave 5 is completing and moving inside an ascending channel. At the moment, the microwaves of the 5th wave have not been completed, so we expect the price to grow within this channel. The minimum growth is up to 200.00, of course, it can grow even more. But after the completion of the 5th wave, with the breakdown of the trend line drawn below and a return to it, we can expect the price to fall to the specified support. The first support is 196.00. Of course, the price decrease in the 5th wave is always accompanied by divergence and a decrease in the slope of the chart, as you can see that the slope of wave 5 is much lower than wave 3. Good luck and be profitable.
Long
by M_Gheysvandi
GOLD → Buyers are hesitant due to new tariffsFX:XAUUSD continues its correction phase after updating local highs and breaking through trend resistance. The dollar is making traders nervous... After rising 2% last week, gold started Monday with a decline to $3,300 amid a stronger dollar due to the risk of new tariffs from Trump, who sent letters to 12 countries threatening to impose duties of up to 70% if no agreements are reached by July 9. This boosted demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Gold is also under pressure from strong US employment data, which has dampened expectations of a rate cut. The market is focused on news on tariffs and the publication of the Fed minutes on Wednesday, which may clarify the outlook for monetary policy. Technically, the correction may end in the 0.7 Fibonacci zone, in the range of 3295-3300. After the formation of a reversal pattern, the market may strengthen to 3350-3360. Resistance levels: 3315, 3344, 3358 Support levels: 3300, 3295 Locally, the price is trying to consolidate below the range, which could lead to a decline to 3300-3295. If, during the correction from support, the market manages to consolidate above 3315, we can expect growth. Otherwise, a weak reaction at 3295 could lead to a retest of 3275 and consolidation in the selling zone, which could lead to a further decline to 3245 . BUT! We are closely monitoring the position of the US and Trump on tariffs, as he is once again issuing ultimatums to countries, to which the markets are reacting... Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
27
GBPUSD → Correction before the bullish trend continuesFX:GBPUSD is forming a trading range for consolidation of potential ahead of a possible continuation of growth as part of a countertrend correction. The dollar is trying to recover from its decline due to a local change in the fundamental background, but the global trend for the DXY is bearish. This could provide support for the GBP to continue growing, provided that the bulls hold their defense above the 0.5 Fibonacci zone of the main impulse movement. The market is holding GBPUSD within the trading range of 1.359 - 1.3675. The trend is bullish, and within the correction, liquidity may be captured from 1.359 before further growth. Resistance levels: 1.3675, 1.3764 Support levels: 1.359, 1.3511 If the reaction to the subsequent retest of support at 1.359 is weak, we can consider a continuation of the correction to the 0.7-0.79 Fibonacci zone, which would be the most favorable entry point for us (focus on 1.3511 — a false breakout will increase interest in buying). In the current situation, the focus is on 1.359. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
5
$FET Ready for the next move up?NYSE:FET looks ready for the next move up with a similar analysis to many other alts I have shared. It is breaking out of descending resistance after testing the .618 Fibonacci retracement and High Volume Node (HVN) as support. Price broke above the daily pivot and is now swinging below, a recovery above the local swing high will be a bullish signal to go long with a wave 3 target of the R3 daily pivot and major resistance HVN at $1.13. Analysis is invalidated below $0.54 Safe trading
COINBASE:FETUSDLong
by Maddox_Metrics