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Emergingmarket

Norwegian pennystock Flex LNG (Natural gas transportation)Table of contents: § 1 About FLNG § 2 The market § 3 Why I am bullish § 4 The risks § 1 Flex LNG(FLNG) is a Norwegian company. They specialize in transporting liquid natural gas around the world for heat, cooking etc. They also create ships themselves, specially created within the CE regulations to ensure safe transport, as natural gas is highly flammable and explosive (who would have figured that one out...) Now, FLNG has done something that might be incredibly smart or it might be incredibly stupid depending on which way things goes: Most companies transporting gas and oil get a fixed rate on the transport, however FLNG has made it so they get paid based on the spot price of natural gas (futures are called NG1! if you want to see the price) This means if the price of natural gas goes up, so does their revenues, which also creates an interesting scenario for us as I will explain in more details in § 3. § 2 FLNG's market is mostly based in China and India (~2 billion people) which in latest years have used a lot of coal for heating, the problem with burning coal is that it's very harmful to the environment, it releases a lot of CO2 and last but not least it releases microscopic particles in the air increasing cases of astma and COPD (Chronic Obstructing Pulmonary Disease) which I don't have to tell you - is reall bad. Now both China and India needs to move over to a more environmental friendly source of energy and heat, this is where natural gas comes in. When you burn natural gas, you only get CO2 and water as a biproduct, which is still bad for global warming, but does not increase cases of COPD or astma. § 3 I am bullish when it comes to FLNG as I believe it will be ranging a lot based on time of year, as we can see when it comes to natural gas spot prices, this can make it a lot easier to predict price movements, as price has historically been highest in the winter (because it's cold and people need more heating, again, who would have figured...), and lower in the summer as very few people need heat in the summer. I also think that because the market is so huge with at least 2 billion people I think there is a LOT of room for expansion. § 4 Although I believe this is an up and coming industry that will be huge the coming years, there is no guarantee that FLNG will be the leaders in the market, but seeing as Norway historically have been one of the leading ship builders and also leading within oil technology I strongly believe flex have a high potential. However, if it does not reach a 50-100% increase within February, it will likely not happen this year as spot prices will be on their way down again. Another risk is market turbulence which might hurt FLNGs price. To end it off with a little bit of my techincal analysis: Price bounced from the 80NOK mark (~$10) where it has not been since it's true pennystock days where liquidity was scarce. Price was trending downwards after the winter just like NG prices have too. I believe the 80NOK level will hold because a lot of bigger institutions bought in at 120NOK and I believe they will either look to average down around the 80NOK mark to get their average to 100NOK to lower their overall downside. And as we are smarter than the institutions (not really) I came up with an idea on how to spot more accurately when price is likely to explode (thank me later): Look at weather forcast for the most populated areas in China and India, when temperatures start dropping it's probably time to buy either FLEX or NG futures. Thank you all for reading and have a great rest of your day.
OSL:FLNGLong
by DonBboy
1
Latin America - the multiyear perspectiveJust by chance, the Latin America ETF (ILF) was noted to be doing very well this week as the S&P500 and friends are given a beating. In a bigger picture perspective, a descending triangle has been formed in the last 12 years. While the upside to resistance may be smaller than previously, it is also projected that IF and WHEN there is a breakout, Latin America would do a multiyear climb to 2.5X of what it is today. Technicals are just turning around, including a very bullish weekly candlestick last week, with MACD turning bullish. Overly optimistic or an amazing opportunity? I am not well versed in emerging markets, particularly Latin America. Do share your thoughts...
AMEX:ILFLong
by Auguraltrader
3
Expect a Downturn in EM If you Expect a Downturn in the USIts not quite a great idea to invest in EM if one is expecting a downturn as EM will be significantly hit from drying up liquidity via outward capital flows and lower investment. Happened in 2008 with the liquidity crisis and again in 2011 with the EU sovereign debt crisis. We can see this relationship between developed markets and emerging markets through a correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and the most liquid emerging markets ETF in the world EM. Moreover, EM is vulnerable to a Chinese financial crisis as well if the Chinese can't figure out how to lower their debt levels which they really havn't yet. Either way, I would avoid EM at these price levels.
MIL:EMShort
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Move on, nothing to see hereSideways movement predicted for USDCNH till the end of 2017. Nothing to see here, move on to another pair. Fundamentals -CNY fixing (Higher swaps -> lesser short interest) (Authority looking to keep yuan stable. Volatile Yuan -> Bad for economy) -Fed Rate Decision (Yuan least affected by fed decision -> see capital flows for direction of currency) -Balance of Payments (Don't expect BOP to deviate in extreme fashion -> See FX reserves) -Devalued Yuan is providing support to economy -> improvement in industrial profits Technicals Strong resistance at 7.0, Support expected to deviate between 6.7 - 6.75 Black Swan Events -Real Estate Bubble pops - 20% (Personally, I do not expect the bubble to pop in 2017. Open for debate) No further explanation needed -Donald Trump - 5% (North Korea deal informally reached? -> See Xi's visit to US) "China is a currency manipulator" -> competitive devaluation
by AnthonyLi7f
Bovespa Symmetrical Downtrend Moves Back to a 1.618 Extension.The Bovespa has been forming a symmetrical downward trend followed by a 1.618 extension of the longer bull trend. You can see this in the chart by the first light blue fib retracement, and then I used a green arrow to indicate where the second retracement line is compared to the green 1.618 retracement line. The second to last move down is a bit tricky as it extended further than the previous downward moves (indicated by the dashed blue trend lines) and did not fully retrace back to its 1.618 extension of the larger trend. Instead it only retraced back to the .786 fib line and again made a downward move extremely similar to past downward moves (again indicated by the dashed blue lines.) It may be forming a double bottom, especially if it finishes out its symmetrical downward trend line, which is about where it’s at. If this is the case, expect a move again back to its 1.618 retracement. This mark is also important as it overlaps the much larger downward trend that started back in November of 2015. These retracement lines overlap almost perfectly and is indicates strong resistance. Target Price: is 55975-56007 by early to mid-June. I would actually rate this quite conservative as the upward extensions seem to happen in a 5-ish day time cycle sometimes followed by a week of slowly moving bullish trends indicating indecision. Make sure to give it time to play out its double bottom which Should be slightly higher than its first bottom of 49907.77 and be sure to use a smaller time frame chart for your entry. To play this index I may use a leveraged ETF like BRZU. Please Like and share and follow for future symmetrical and perhaps non symmetrical analysis. Thanks!
INDEX:IBOVLong
by KyleKeb
Follow up on Emerging markets EEM: Reversal Week. Last Thursday I suggested that EEM may be about to fall but wait for sign of reversal. Friday's down action wiped out all the gains in EEM for the week producing a nice shooting star weekly candle. After a large rise this is often a sign of reversal. Some authors suggest that one way to trade this is to short with a stop on any close > than the high (in this case > 43.71.) Others might wait for the up trend line to be broken. Notice the price this week went just high enough to take out a weekly gap (those nasty gaps) but did not reach .78 retraction. So possibly there could be one more intra day shot at that level. ETFs: 2x bear EEV,, 3x bear EDZ. Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to trade but hopefully will be helpful in the way you choose to trade. Take care. Goodguy
AMEX:EEMShort
by goodguy
Emerging Markets...Time to Emerge??I see 2 possibilities,1) a retracement into the box area, testing the neckline, and then a trust higher.2) Or a larger inverse Head and shoulder formation , which would be a stronger reversal pattern. I like the latin america over india because of a bullish MACD divergence on LBJ/ILF. I think Inverse H&S would create some fakeout for the bulls, before actually thrusting higher. Also an inverse H&S will be much more prominent on a weekly chart.
LLong
by aravindran1