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GRIN. Holdings Ltd. for steady growth in global shippinJoin the smart investors who are banking on Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd for steady growth in the global shipping industry. With a diversified portfolio, strong financials, and experienced management team. Diversified Shipping Services: Grindrod provides a diversified range of shipping services, including dry bulk shipping, liquid bulk shipping, and container shipping, which can potentially provide stability and reduce dependence on any single business segment. Emerging Markets Exposure: has a significant presence in emerging markets, which can offer growth potential as these economies continue to develop and demand for shipping services increases. Strong Financial Performance: has a history of strong financial performance, with steady revenue growth and profitability, which can indicate a well-run and efficiently managed company. Growing Demand for Shipping Services: The global shipping industry is expected to grow as a result of increasing trade and economic activity, which can provide tailwinds for Grindrod's business. Experienced Management Team: has an experienced management team with a strong track record of running the company and making strategic decisions, which can provide confidence to potential investors. It's important to keep in mind that this is just one possible investment thesis and that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It's crucial to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:GRINLong
by DCAChampion
Sentiment Let's continue to observe the social moods in the world. The main news today is the unrest in Brazil: supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. They are protesting against the election of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva as president, calling for a coup d'état, the annulment of elections and the imprisonment of da Silva. Let's try to assess the prospects for Brazil by correlation with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, which includes indicators in US dollars. It peaked in 2008 and has been losing over 60% since then. The long-term downtrend began shortly after former US President Obama called then-President of Brazil da Silva "the most popular politician on earth." Whether this is the bottom remains to be seen, but it certainly deserves attention.
AMEX:EWZ
by Financial_Wave
Emerging MarketsThis is just a question for thought, not a trade recommendation: Could the Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ) be ready for a breakout? It's quite rare to find a chart where price has consolidated and appears to be breaking out, and at the same time, the oscillators are ready to move up on both the higher and lower timeframes. This set up can lead to breakouts. With that said, obviously, there are many headwinds. To name just a couple: The VIX is at its trend line (support) and could easily oscillate up soon, causing most risk assets to drop lower. This ETF is composed mainly of Chinese stocks which have been volatile and vulnerable to geopolitical events, not to mention Chinese and international stocks, in general, have typically underperformed the S&P 500 over the long term. Traders are like surfers trying to catch waves. Sometimes the wave is a total dud. Sometimes the wave crests right when you get on. Almost always, waves crest while sub-currents on a lower degree are pulling back out. On some rare occasions, however, a large wave occurs because the currents on all levels converge and begin to swell roughly at the same time. This is happening right now to EMQQ. While the weekly oscillator appears to be the only noteworthy incongruent current, it is not in overbought territory, and there is no bearish divergence in the weekly RSI to warrant the possibility that a weekly oscillation down would have a strong downward bias. Additionally, there is a breakout on the weekly chart which, to some extent, undermines the effect of the oscillation down on that timeframe. Only time will tell.
AMEX:EMQQ
by SpyMasterTrades
2
USDMXN breaks bearish trendThe USD/MXN is attempting a breakout above 20.50, which will also see rates take out the bearish trend line that has been in place since last year. At the time of writing, it was doing a good job at that. A closing break would pave the way for more gains in this pair, and losses for the Mexican Peso. Emerging market currencies have been in the spotlight amid the Fed's aggressive hiking. There’s a risk that inflation in developed economies might prove to be more persistent – something the Fed highlighted the risk of at their last monetary policy sitting, judging from the minutes of that meeting released on Wednesday. If that's the case, more aggressive hikes could be on the way from the Fed and other developed economies, which should further reduce the appeal of EM currencies. Expect a summer of turmoil in EM space.
by FOREXcom
SSE Shanghai Composite W1 topped w/ a diamond? W2 comingThis China index confirmed its completion of ABC when lockdown ended & their economy resumes. It has risen so much from the ABC correction low of 2888 & we may see wave 1 topping out with a diamond reversal pattern. As seen in the past 2 times shown in chart, a diamond can be either a reversal or continuation pattern so proceed with caution. Reasons why I see this as a reversal: 1) index has already risen 500 points (2888 to 3388 completes the 5 sub-waves of wave 1) without any major retracement. 2) price was rejected exactly at wma 50 & an anchored VWAP from 3300 bottom of July 2021 3) price was rejected at the 2015 red trendline 4) price has reached the 1.272 FIB retracement of the most recent leg down (an ideal spot for abc zigzag retracements) The 2 most probable supports (the 2 yellow zones) for the wave 2 correction are: 1) the 0.383 FIB near the 3100 to 3200 pivot zone 2) the 0.618 zone near 3100 If wave 2 is shallow, then the future wave 4 may be a deeper correction like 61.8% or 78.6%. Not trading advice
SSE:000001Short
by xtremerider8
EWZ Brazil, a commodities proxy is now in Wave 3 of IIIWith the current fear of recession & rising inflation in the US, a lot of funds will be flowing outside into emerging markets, China & also Brazil which is rich in commodities especially now that the dollar seems to be peaking out as foreign markets slowly becomes more attractive to invest in. EWZ may retrace down first to fill the gap at 33.65 green line. A bounce from here will enable a near 20% rally to the 0.618 red zone at 40 to 42.43. 42.43 will be a strong pivot point since it is the intersection of the 0.50 red dotted FIB level of my slanted FIB CHANNEL with 1.272 FIB of the recent wave 2. EWZ is currently in the wave 3 of 3 of a larger wave III. Not trading advice
AMEX:EWZLong
by xtremerider8
EEM emerging Mkt bottomed @39 or fall further to 37 or 36?EEM now near 41, has already fallen more than 30% from Feb2021 top at 57.19. Two weeks ago it fell to 39 the green VWAP from 2016 & bounced with a weekly hammer candle. It is now being rejected by a FIB CHANNEL level near the yellow 41-42 pivot zone. Holding this zone will see more upside maybe up to 44 or 46 before a c-wave down. If 41/42 does not hold, there are only 2 strong supports down: One is at 37, the black VWAP from 2011, which will be another 9% drop from current price. The worst one is at 36 ( the red VWAP from 2009), another 14% drop from here, making the total crash of 38% from ATH. The 37 to 36 zone will be a good place to slowly average down into EEM. Note that the dollar index DXY seems to be topping out near 105, which will be good for emerging markets, gold, silver, commodities & maybe BTC, which are all priced in terms of dollars. Not trading advice
AMEX:EEMLong
by xtremerider8
ASEA strong w only 0.382 retracement range;15 wedge BO or 13.40?ASEA has been in this yellow box consolidation range sine Feb2018 except during the pandemic plunge which is a BLACKSWAN event & should be discounted. The base of this box is at 13.40. Right now ASEA is making a falling wedge. A falling wedge has a greater chance to break to the upside. If it holds the middle green zone of this box & bounce above 15, it will be a good time to buy. But if green zone fails, next support buy zone is at a 13.40 bounce. Maximum pain level is at 11.65, the FIB 0.618 pivot. Not trading advice
AMEX:ASEALong
by xtremerider8
EEM may retest base of WEDGE since 2007@37; see Buy & Sell zonesEEM Emerging Mkt formed a big Violet wedge since the 2007-2008 crash. It currently gapped down & broke 40, a 0.618 level. If it does not reclaim 40 in the next few days, then It will go down to 37 to retest the lower edge of this wedge. 37 is also a 1.618 retracement of the latest rally. See the 3 zones in the chart. Red is the sell zone. Yellow is the neutral zone & green is the buy zone. The bottom may be near for EEM specially if inflation, the DXY dollar index & TNX the 10-yr yield will peak out soon, pushing equities & risk assets higher. Rise in commodities is also good for EEM countries. Not trading advice
AMEX:EEMLong
by xtremerider8
Better days for Coal India ahead!This stock is often overlooked It is a part of Nifty-50, and major weightage in Nifty-Metal Index as well. It seems it is time that we get our eyes on this counter again The line drawn in the chart is a regression line for Coal India. It is downward sloping currently. But notice that price has closed above the regression line on the weekly charts. If we see the last 4 candles on weekly charts, we observe this:- - All four are green candles - Body-size of candles in increasing (getting larger and larger) Bollinger band expansion bodes well for the stock in the near term. Volume: If we see the past 2&1/2 -3 years volumes, they have been much higher as compared to the periods prior to 2018 Another way to convey this volume strength is that "long-term volume averages are at/around lifetime highs" Recent Coal Shortages, elevated coal prices, prevailing inflationary trends are also tailwinds for the stock **************************************************************************************************************************************************************** ABOVE VIEWS ARE PERSONAL. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS BEFORE INVESTING I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED ADVISOR ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************
NSE:COALINDIALong
by Samyak_Shah
Long Emerging Markets as the World DeDollarization BloomsAll the empires and dynasties I studied rose and declined in a classic Big Cycle that has clear markers that allow us to see where we are in it. This Big Cycle produces swings between 1) peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity that raise living standards a lot and 2) depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction of wealth, life, and other things we cherish
AMEX:EEMLong
by noam_chom
2
Waiting to see what happens on March 1st***Earnings report may or may not be the catalyst I'm looking for*** BEIJING, Feb. 15, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ: IQ) ("iQIYI" or the "Company"), an innovative market-leading online entertainment service in China, today announced that it will report its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2021 before the U.S. market opens on March 1, 2022. iQIYI's management will hold an earnings conference call at 6:30 AM on March 1, 2022, U.S. Eastern Time (7:30 PM on March 1, 2022, Beijing Time). Please register in advance of the conference using the link provided below. Upon registering, you will be provided with participant dial-in numbers, Direct Event passcode and unique registrant ID by email. Participant Online Registration: apac.directeventreg.com
NASDAQ:IQLong
by clarkehimself
Why I think it's a good idea to have some EM exposureEmerging markets have dramatically underperformed the S&P 500 since the launch of the first EM ETF in 1987. However, during that period, there have been stretches of outperformance. In fact, there appears to be a cycle. EM outperformed from 1987 to 1994, underperformed from 1994 to 2000, outperformed from 2000 to 2010, and underperformed from 2010 until the present. I believe we may be nearing the end of the current down cycle, and approaching a period of EM outperformance. I also believe EM is relatively inexpensive compared to the S&P 500, and that yields on both EM equities and EM debt make a good case for EM investing here. And, finally, I believe that there are significant tail risks ahead for the US and Europe, and some diversification is warranted. Analyzing the Cycle If indeed there's a cycle in the relative performance of EM vs. US, how much longer will the current downswing last before the next upswing? The lengths of the last three EM/US cycles were 2192 days, 2464 days, and 3682 days. That's an exponential progression. If the progression continues, the current cycle should be around 4550 days. We're currently at 4110 days. So, we may be nearing the end of the cycle. (But this is by no means an exact science; I just think it's interesting). Analyzing Valuation Let's compare some basic price ratios on an EM ETF and an S&P 500 ETF. This data comes from Fidelity. IEMG P/E: 12.15 P/B: 1.76 P/S: 1.42 P/FCF: 8.63 Dividend Yield: 3.08% SPY P/E: 23.00 P/B: 4.30 P/S: 3.00 P/FCF: 17.22 Dividend Yield: 1.27% So you're paying roughly 2x as much for the S&P 500 as you are for emerging markets. That might make sense if you expect EM economic growth to greatly lag US economic growth, but that isn't really the story that the economic data tell. The US's share of global GDP has stayed approximately the same over the last several decades (~15%), while EM's share of global GDP has increased from approximately 42% in 1996 to about 60% currently. 71% of global GDP growth is in emerging markets, and only 29% is in developed markets. So the data don't support the view that the US economy is growing much faster than EM. Rather, I think US equities have a high premium for a couple reasons. First, US companies have done a really good job of increasing earnings a lot faster than the economy grows. S&P 500 profit margins have steadily grown from about 6% in 1994 to about 14% today. Secondly, interest rates in the US have gradually fallen over the last several decades, and as interest rates fall, stock market multiples expand. (Instead of buying bonds, investors buy stocks when bond rates and yields are low.) However, we may be nearing the end of both of these trends. 0% is probably the floor for nominal interest rates in the US, and corporate profit margins can't expand forever. (I don't know where the ceiling for margins might be, but I suspect that rising margins are related to falling interest rates, so that if rates hit a floor, margins will hit a ceiling.) If multiple and margin expansion in the US start to hit a limit, then the future of multiple expansion and margin expansion will be emerging markets, where rates are still way above zero and can go a lot lower. Plus, EM investors will get paid a much higher dividend yield in the meantime. EM Debt vs. EM Equities Traditionally, US investors have been advised to maintain a 60-40 portfolio-- 60% stocks, 40% bonds. But with real yields on US bonds deeply negative, a lot of US investors have gone to an all-equities allocation. I'd argue that one way to get bond exposure with better yield is to buy EM bonds rather than US bonds. Comparing VWOB vs GOVT is informative. VWOB is an ETF of sovereign EM bonds, and GOVT is an ETF of sovereign US bonds. As you can see, the overall yield-adjusted return on VWOB has been significantly higher since the start of our data in 2013. The distribution yield on VWOB is about 4.52%, and the distribution yield on GOVT is about 1.43%. So you get way more yield on VWOB. The default risk is higher too, of course, which is why VWOB is more volatile than GOVT. Note that there's been a big dip in relative valuation recently. There are a couple reasons for that. First, with inflation high, emerging markets have been raising interest rates and tightening financial conditions a lot faster than developed markets. And second, the Russian invasion of Ukraine raises the risk that both Ukraine and Russia will default on sovereign debt. I don't know where the relative bottom will be, but I've been buying EM debt on the way down. We're heading into a monetary tightening cycle that poses risks to all global asset prices, but since emerging markets are so far ahead of developed markets in the cycle, it's possible that a lot of the tightening is already priced in for EM. Tail Risks One of the reasons that EM equities and bonds are less popular than the US equivalents is that they're seen as being exposed to a lot of tail risk. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a good example. Autocracy and political instability can lead to bad leadership decisions that tank markets. But I think the US has more political tail risk exposure than we'd like to admit. Our political discourse has been deteriorating for years, with partisanship extremely high, membership in civic organizations extremely low, and voters' policy views increasingly unhinged. Victims of our own success, we're being targeted by highly effective propaganda machines in Russia and China that seek to sow the seeds of political instability. We've also got so much money sloshing around in this country that our political process is being targeted by corporate lobbyists and criminal syndicates as well. It's not a good sign when companies get 10x the return from investing in lobbyists than from investing in R&D. The US still ranks low on measures of corruption, but that's largely because the scales aren't built to estimate the kind of corruption we have in the United States (e.g. "access money"). Consider that the leading presidential candidate for 2024 is under investigation in multiple jurisdictions for financial fraud and is widely suspected of connections to the Russian government, yet there's no real sign of his party even trying to muster a primary challenger. And on the other side, you've got a guy with unprecedented low approval ratings, and his party doesn't seem to be trying to muster a primary challenger either. I don't know how you break the two-party duopoly, but it's increasingly dysfunctional. And all this political dysfunction is arguably parasitic on economic growth. Perhaps even more worrying than political tail risk is climate tail risk. Granted, the US has more resources than other countries that it can deploy to adapt to a changing climate. But it has one big vulnerability that EMs don't have: the North Atlantic current, which is reportedly on the verge of collapse. When the North Atlantic current goes, there will be catastrophic changes in climate for both North America and Europe. The southern hemisphere is less exposed. So, I think southern hemisphere investments make for good diversification to protect against specifically northern hemisphere climate risks.
NYSE:EMFLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1