BTCUSDT - SHORT [Daily Signal] [UPDATE]I do not know what else I need to say - the numbers does not lie.
Still waiting, still increasing position volume. Welcome to The Big Short.
Stay tuned.
Endgame
We’re In the Endgame Now.Bulls Weak, Bears Exhausted
Liquidity is Showing Signs of Weakness
Twitter feed last night I saw this chart, which is a decrease in Top of Book depth liquidity that is a measure of highest bid and ask prices.
What assumptions can be made?
FED is tightening and asset managers are fleeing to risk off taking all the liquidity with it.
I wouldn’t start to worry about large multi-100 point moves just yet.
VIX would need to be spiking over 40 to show signs of stress.
So far, so good with VIX holding under 30.
Negative Gamma on S&P
If you follow GEX (Gamma Exposure) of S&P 500 stocks you will know that market makers have shifted to Negative Gamma Exposure
For those not familiar with negative gamma environment, it’s when dealers (market makers) need to sell when the market sells. The easiest way to think of it as low liquidity environment.
Hedges Shifting to Negative Gamma
JHEQX is just 150 points from turning negative gamma.
The last time JHEQX went negative gamma was Jan 4th (started the year long slide) all the way to the end of June (start of bear rally)
JHQTX that recently rolled over went negative gamma (red zone) right away. Flows are not strong, but add to the selling effect.
Event VOLATILITY, VANNA and CHARM
I talk about these flows as if everyone understands them. If anything is responsible for the phrase “they are suppressing the vix” it would be the result of event volatility feeding VANNA and CHARM flows.
I’m working on a new type of chart monitor to gauge these flows better as they are key in why my predictions are as accurate as they are some times.
With it I will outline more about identifying and charting these flows to give readers a play book on what to expect and when.
Bitcoin
Crypto went through another liquidation event yesterday. You can tell they are getting tighter and smaller zones of consideration before taking the next leg down.
Never published this idea, but recently dug up this chart from when I was studying harmonic patterns. The butterfly pattern predicted 28800 for bitcoin at its second peak in Oct 21.
Here is a pattern of flags I noticed and shared privately that followed through right as markets opened on Tuesday.
S&P 500 Pinned at 3905
S&P 500 is pinned to 3905 as I predicted yesterday.
Bulls need to hold 3900 all week. Dropping below means a retest of 3637 but this time JHEQX will be adding volatility to an already liquidity strained system.
As for today, my trading plan is to watch. If 3900 fails I’ll be looking to go short. If it holds, I may take a long position into CPI and FOMC. CPI is looking like it might print lower giving a short term reprieve from Septembers Selling Pressure.
As Always, Trade Safe. Not Financial Advice.
Magi of the order of OptimismOP roll ups have gone from a concept for a layer 2 solution to a vital element in our financial toolkit at the time of this writing ✍️ June2022 . I am currently enjoying the bear market currently as a great moment of acquisitions that I have full faith will be fondly remembered come this September and on. With this said always diversify, nurturee the habitual foundation of your strategy in order to prepare for the end game. We move in a articulated and swift manner the likes of which should rattle the souls of the archaic titans, the price of their shackles being cast upon the least of us shall be immense indeed. #Oathkeeper
Nearly doneThe dominance chart is one of my favourite charts because it pretty much dictates where all the alts are going. BTC has had an AMAZING run since last December, and now its time for alts and BTC to dip. The support level that is tapping and has yet to hit (should hit in the next couple of days or so) is the same of 2018, The second tap usually signal an inversion of the dominance trend, and makes alts bleed.
At the moment BTC has broken the 9 and 21 EMA lines is testing the 50 EMA on the daily time frame, and should be retesting the 200 EMA support on the 4h chart. If the dominance increases in confluence with the BTC dip, it will make last dip look like a walk in the park. Also September is usually a bad month for crypto.
In my opinion we should have one last pump and then we are done with the bulls until the next halving as markets should resume the dip for the next couple of years or so.
So my prediction is short term is Bullish for the next couple of day, long term Bearish.
The Bubble End Game - GOLDFirst to 1520 the to 2170, most likely.
Make sure to reference This Post , as well;
The Bubble End Game (in terms of the SP500)A 70% decline for the SP500 is a foregone conclusion. (Not just because of technical reasons , those just happen to coincide.)
For the analytic process see this post ("Bubble End Game - DJIA");
Game on!!
The Bubble End Game (in terms of the Dow - DJIA)OK, so this I had mapped out quite a while ago but despite my general agreement with the widely circulated May 24, 2021 Dooms Day predictions (in as much as a likely date around which the music will stop ), this (chart)setup was still missing it's trigger . - Until last Friday, that is.
That last 15 minutes of trading on Friday, March, 26., 2021 was no ordinary window-dressing! That was a no-holds-barred locking onto the Final Target and simultaneously initiating the count-down, All-in . (By various players and in no small part by Sovereign Public "Investors" - i.e.; Central Banks.)
If one examines the Who bought What, How and Why - and why at that exact moment -, the gig is up. - Not that those key players had any place left to hide hence, the notable drama preceding the whole event during the previous 24 hours. (I imagine that by the time of this posting it's all out there so I shall spare the repetition.)
At the risk of stating the obvious, the size and enduring length of this current Speculative Bubble deserves (even demands), at the very minimum, at least an attempt to find some still unsuspecting buyers to trap and onto whom to unload as much as humanly possible before the music stops and the silence becomes deafening. - And that means;
An Exponential Blow-off Top
.... that was the trigger , this picture was missing, until last Friday, that is. (And Yes, last Friday's market close was the first and only trigger , in this particular frame work.)
- And since nothing tickles a (historically uninformed) speculator's fancy like a no-rhyme, no-reason, all-in, exponential charge into oblivion... Well, you got it! - Or at least the beginnings of one.
So, what is special about Dow 37130-37250, around the 1st week of May, 2021 that would make it a likely Final Price Target ?
- Confluences!
Providing a (rather obvious) Final Top between Dow 37130 - 37250;
... and potentially close to the much-touted May, 2021 time frame.
... after which, most likely;
... nothing but Gravity.
Game on!!...
Nasdaq100; Dump it!!Aside from a total U.S. Market Capitalization that is now in excess of 260% of U.S. GDP (the historic norm, not the low, being 78%!) ...
... and a Doubly Exponential; f(x)=a^(b^x), Central Bank(s) push in equities , up to this point, ...
... and the leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) now easily the eclipsing all previous records, by any measure, not just in absolute terms!;
www.hussmanfunds.com
... and since the current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble, in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!" ,
... and since the total Market Cap of the top 1500 companies, that were unprofitable for each of the past 3 years, now exceeds $2.5 Trillion,
... and because of charts like these;
www.hussmanfunds.com
... and;
www.hussmanfunds.com
... and;
www.hussmanfunds.com
...
youtu.be
... there are numerous (too many to list) other leading-, as well as coincident-indicators which would all suggest that being long here is very unlikely to turn out well.
Such as;
The valuation of Bitcoin now equates one-fifth (20%) of the entire U.S. Monetary Base ;
... and;
... and;
from this post;
... and so on.
The Bubble End Game - Crude Oil; $35 before $75If you see $70 dump it with both hands and eyes closed! They will probably Stop Hunt the recent top at $68, though.
The Monthly;
The Bubble End Game - The Carry TradesThis is one of (if not "The") worst Carry Trade in modern times. (And it' is - will be - extremely illiquid when the time comes!!)
The Weekly;
AUD will fall to historic lows of 0.27 This is the boldest chart I have ever created. I personally hope that it doesn't happen. Mainly because if this plays out, life as I know it will be changed forever.
A global depression will send the AUD to 0.27 as money flows to the USD the "current" World reserve currency. The so-called "safe haven".
This will be devastating for emerging markets.
The Australian real estate bubble will pop due to a wave of unemployment sweeping through the country & also the incredible deflationary wave that has started crashing over financial assets. The rest of the globe will be feel similar effects, but the Aussie mortage to income ratio will come back to bite us on the arse.
The catalyst for this move will be blamed on the CoronaVirus. However it is just the scape goat to blame the crisis on.
Our debt based monetary system has a limited lifespan.
Our current system; Fiat currencies backed by only the paper they are printed on, with the USD as the world reserve currency is on its last legs.
Global interest rates are at historic all time lows, the new money coming into the system is being created at an exponential rate, money supply is climbing the hockey stick faster than it ever has done before.
True global growth started dying off a long time ago.
Out of the ashes of the current system the phoenix will rise.
End Game: Linear charts of USD currency, Fed BS, US DebtThese (linear) charts show end of 2023 something has to happen. I suspect that we will see a new structure/change to USD as the reserve currency and the next 30-40 year evolution of reserve currency as uncovered by Mike Malone in hidden secrets of Money.
Look at the exponential growth of the USD currency supply shown on the left, the fed balance sheet in the center, and the US public debt on the right. There is an asymptotical rise limit on a linear chart by end of 2023. Thus I suspect something will have to give, which if I had to speculate will be the next evolution I the typical 30-40 year cycle of reserve currency change.
End Game: Log charts of USD currency, Fed BS, US DebtLOGARITHMIC CHARTS:
These charts show end of 2023 something has to happen. I suspect that we will see a new structure/change to USD as the reserve currency and the next 30-40 year evolution of reserve currency as uncovered by Mike Malone in hidden secrets of Money.
Look at the exponential growth of the USD currency supply shown on the left, the fed balance sheet in the center, and the US public debt on the right. There is an asymptotical rise limit on a linear chart by end of 2023. Thus I suspect something will have to give, which if I had to speculate will be the next evolution I the typical 30-40 year cycle of reserve currency change.
McAfee PredictionWhat we are all hoping for,
This is my own personal expectation and prediction after the May 2020 Halving
$90,000 October 13th 2020
KingMida$423 11/15/19 11:25pm EST
ENDGAME, Bitcoin 3k OR 16k? Very few realize this, but we are in the most important area you could possibly imagine, this is the endgame!
In the next few days we will decide, if we will go to 16k or melt down to 3-5k or even below that and experience a total reset.
Let's start off very slowly...
We have built up a very strong support line, which is lasting since May. This support line is what I call the "support line of hope", it saved us when we dropped to 9k.
Problem is very simple: Each time we touch this support line it gets weaker and weaker. We have already had a lot of contacts with it (see chart).
There are exactly two scenarios, you can trade both of them.
Bullish: We see a bounce to 9.8k, bounce off and retest 9.5k and just break trough 9.8k and out of the wedge.
Bearish: We bounce back to 9.8k or a little above, get rejected immediately and just dump to the bottom of the wedge (don't have to hit 9.8k first).
You can set short orders at 9.8k and have the opportunity for the short of your life with a very tight stopp loss.
When we hit the wedge bottom at around $8500, a lot of people will expect an immediate bounce back, because the wedge pattern will be clear.
That's where the real fun will beginn.
There is the possibility that the falling wedge will do what a falling wedge is supposed to do most of the time, breaking to the upside. However, this is the reason why it is more likely that we will just dump through everything and melt down to levels nobody was anticipating.
We had a similar outcome, when we had a big, clear as daylight rising wedge in June at 9.5k. What happened, did we fall like we technically were supposed to? NO! We broke straight to the upside in one big pump to 11k+. We can reverse this situation and use it for our current situation, when it seems bullish, however, the outcome can become really really bearish.
Sometimes when it is the most obvious, it's not else everybody would be making money.
What's the smartest decision to take (no financial advice)? Go into Fiat and just wait how it plays out, a long after a small bounce at 9.8k to 9.5k or a short at 9.8k.
No matter what, caution is advised, the next moves will decide everything.
I looked forward in Gold Chart , I saw 14,000,605 futures. How many of those futures do the Seller defeat Buyer , and Strange says "One."
Time frame Day
H&S and retest 2 time
and found support in 1266-1270 ( Double bottom )
It will swing in 1266-1289 range until it break down and will find buyer
around 1251 , 1240 , 1222 zone.
How to trade
When you know High Probability to go , Only manage your money and control % Risk to suitable for your account and stoploss.
*** you can hedge buy too in short term by check support zone.
#xauusd #gold
