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ES Futures Play – Long Bias Despite MACD Caution (June 11, 2025)📈 ES Futures Play – Long Bias Despite MACD Caution (June 11, 2025) Ticker: NYSE:ES | Bias: ✅ Moderately Bullish Setup Time: Market Open | Confidence: 65% 🔍 AI Model Consensus Breakdown 📍 Price: ~6,027.25 📊 Trend: Above 20-, 50-, and 200-day MAs 📈 RSI: 64.25 – bullish but nearing overbought 📉 MACD: Bearish crossover → possible short-term pullback 📎 Bollinger Band: Price near upper band – may act as resistance ✅ Majority Long Bias (3 of 4 Models Agree) Grok/xAI, Llama/Meta, Gemini/Google: • Solid technical structure (higher highs/lows) • High open interest and positive momentum • Slight MACD concern, but bullish setup intact • R:R ≈ 1.5:1 with upside target in 6,100 area ⚠️ Contrarian View – DeepSeek: • Warns of overextension after a 30-day rally • Suggests bearish MACD could drive pullback • Recommends short targeting 5,930 📌 Recommended Trade Setup 🎯 Direction: LONG 📥 Entry: 6,027.25 (at market open) 🛑 Stop Loss: 5,980.00 (below short-term support) 🎯 Take Profit: 6,098.00 (R:R ≈ 1.5:1) 📊 Size: 1 contract 📈 Confidence: 65% ⚠️ Risk Watch • 📉 MACD crossover = potential short-term weakness • 🧊 Near upper Bollinger Band = possible resistance • 💨 Volatility at open can cause whipsaw → manage risk strictly • 🌐 Monitor news/macro events for any directional shift 📣 Are you taking the NYSE:ES long today or fading it like DeepSeek? Drop your view ⬇️ | Follow for more AI-powered market setups.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by quantsignals
Intraday Playbook ES Futures: Trade Setup & Context CME_MINI:ES1! Big Picture Context Please see related trade idea. In this analysis, we refine our intraday levels to identify potential trade setups. We also review recent price action and present a high-probability long trade example that frequently offers favorable risk-reward dynamics when it plays out successfully. See chart image below reviewing yesterday’s long trade opportunity. Example Trade Setup: SFP Long Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins • Entry: 5612 • Stop: 5595.50 (below SFP candle) • Target: 5682 (mCVAH — confluence with recent highs) • Risk: 66 ticks • Reward: 280 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.2 R Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results. ________________________________________ Intraday Market Structure Review What has the market done? • ES Futures have rallied and reclaimed a key technical level. • Currently trading above: o March 2025 low o 2025 mid-year level o Developing Value Area Low (VAL) for the 2025 Volume Profile What is the market trying to do? • Recover prior months' losses. • Price action is climbing steadily, establishing higher lows. How well is it doing? • Despite headline risks, ES futures show resilience. • Price has painted green candles in the full session for the past 10 consecutive days—a strong bullish structure. ________________________________________ What Is More Likely to Happen from Here? Scenario 1: Pullback and Continuation Higher A pullback toward the 0.618 Fib retracement and mCVAH confluence could offer another long setup, targeting the April 2nd high. This is further supported by NQ already reclaiming those highs, with ES still lagging but showing strength. Example Trade Idea: Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins • Entry: 5688 • Stop: 5680 • Target: 5724 (May 2 High) • Risk: 32 ticks • Reward: 144 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.5 R Target may be adjusted if relative volume and delta support strong momentum toward April 2nd highs. ________________________________________ Scenario 2: Further Consolidation • Sellers push prices back into last week's balance/value area. • Market consolidates and builds energy for a likely next leg higher. • No short setup is presented, as current risk and stop placement do not justify initiating short positions. Important Notes: • These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions. • Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
11
$ES_F Bull FlagA lot of people calling for another big flush 4200 etc and while this is possible, to me ES looks like a textbook bull flag. Although we probably don't get a clean breakout with the recent trading being extremely choppy and tricky, full of traps, I think so long as 4485 holds bulls have the ball to more upside. With a flag breakout brings 4575 and then 4610 If the bulls drop the ball and 4465 breaks, most likely see 4445 to 4410 My near term bias is bullish and although we may get more chop, I am looking for a flag breakout next week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FriscoTrades
6
E-mini Defined Range Until Proven OtherwiseAs we spoke about last week, ES_F between 4273 and 4330 is our defined range until it isn't. There will be noise in-between, but until we get a daily close below or above those two areas it should be a very healthy area to long/short and make a lot of money with an elevated VIX. We think we go revisit last weeks lows early in the week, only to bounce again. Once we breakout of 4330 and hold above on a daily close we should head back to 4700.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlphaTradersInc
ES_F Range Bound for nowWe look range bound on ES_F between 4606 and 4707. They moved the local POC to 4663 and am looking for that number going into RTH tomorrow. Above 4663 in RTH we could go test 4681 and then off to 4700 area. I will be looking to fade 4700 area. If that fails, will look to 4740 again to hold the line for bears. 4740 is the breakout area that would take the market back to ATH and beyond. We most likely stay range bound, but may get lucky for a 50 point move down if 4663 holds and they break this weekends lows of 4638.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlphaTradersInc
ES_F 4800?ES_F looking for a breakout of 4742 this week. The amount of buyers that will come in on a confirmed s/r flip there will blow your mind. Plan for Monday: Chop to pullback at 4680 and max pain at 4667 into Tuesday. Looking to buy and hold as long as we don't close under 4650. 3 historic levels that have been a huge area of interest for both buyers and sellers. Blue is the top of the huge channel we are starting to create (accumulation or distribution?) red is the bottom of the channel. Green is local daily areas of historical s/r. Personally believe we run it up, but any day close under 4667 turns me bear. 4650 confirms that thesis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlphaTradersInc
Looks like a leading diagonal in ES_F!Greetings traders! I was a little bit overly bearish on the ES_F, but how it sits now gives good potential for a leading diagonal in the potential 1 wave! For this to be confirmed, the market must breach 4462.25 for 5 to be longer than 3. Once we go back through our measurements, we can see a good target area for the impulse to terminate just above this level that lines up well with prior resistance. I think this gives us a good starting plan to target the pullback for the wave 3 move which should make good progress towards the 5000 level! Exciting times!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by east-west_trading
Time to BTFD in ES_F?Greetings traders! A big down night in the stocks on the back of the Evergrande story, but are we technically at a turning point? Each of the highlighted pivots has a technical relationship to the high and todays low. Go check them out for yourself! Add to that some very nice channelling that helps to solidify some Elliott Wave patterns (potentially) and a Cypher reversal pattern that has completed, and we have many layers of confluence that makes me think the market could try and reach back to the retracement zones between 4420 and 4450 where the 50 MA lies. The 50MA has provided good support for the mkt all year. Will it now turn into resistance?
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by east-west_trading