Downloading...
Download

ESH2024

1/3 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Cautiously Watchful The market is cautiously watchful today, reflecting the recent volatility and key support breaches. The focus is particularly on 4778 and 4767-70 as major supports. Traders are vigilant of these levels for signs of continued bullish momentum or a deeper bearish shift. 📝 Recap: Volatility and Supports Tested Yesterday witnessed a volatile trading day ending with a classic failed breakdown of the 4773ish morning low. Despite the noise, the market remained in the broad 4795-4838 range. Key supports 4816 and 4795-98 are less attractive for longs now, with attention shifting to 4778 and 4767-70 for today's bids. 🌜 The Markets Overnight Asian Markets Asian markets closed lower, with major indices reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors. The downturn can be attributed to a mix of regional economic data and geopolitical tensions that continue to influence market dynamics. European Markets European markets are also on a downward trajectory this morning. The decline comes amid concerns over inflationary pressures and the potential for continued policy tightening by the European Central Bank, which could dampen growth prospects in the region. US Index Futures US index futures are indicating a lower open, suggesting that Wall Street may follow the global trend. Investors are weighing the latest economic data and earnings reports, which could set the tone for trading sessions ahead. Crude Oil Crude oil prices have surged strongly, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks and supply concerns. The market is reacting to the latest developments in the Middle East and the potential impact on global oil supply chains. US Dollar The US dollar is showing a strong performance, buoyed by the risk-off sentiment driving investors towards the safety of the greenback. The dollar's strength is also being supported by expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance in response to persistent inflationary pressures. Yields Yield on government bonds are up significantly, as investors adjust their portfolios in anticipation of higher interest rates. The rise in yields reflects a market recalibration in the face of potential monetary policy shifts and inflation expectations. Crypto The crypto market is undergoing a pronounced downturn, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing substantial losses. This decline may be attributed to a mix of elements, including institutional disinvestment and market skepticism. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Global Economic Growth Forecasts: J.P. Morgan: Predicts U.S. slowdown, avoiding recession. Goldman Sachs: Foresees global economy outperforming expectations due to income growth, factored-in rate hikes, and manufacturing recovery. Central banks might cut rates as a recession safeguard. Interest Rate Environment: Federal Reserve held rates steady; potential cuts expected in 2024. Anticipated cuts could influence borrowing, investing, and market dynamics. Inflation Trends: Inflation cooling, yet core inflation remains above Fed's target. Persistent inflation may lead to sustained higher rates, risking an earlier economic contraction. Market Performance and Outlook: S&P 500 rose 24% in 2023; concerns of overbought conditions and market correction loom. Analysts wary of potential disappointments in earnings and impact of geopolitical risks. Geopolitical Risks and Commodity Prices: Conflicts in Ukraine, Middle East, and high energy prices pose financial stability risks. These factors could slow global economic growth and affect commodity markets. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA readings suggest a neutral to bearish sentiment. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: Bearish sentiment is indicated by EMA readings. 📉 Support Levels Major supports for today include 4778, 4767-70, 4757, and down to 4655. The 4778 and 4767-70 zones are critical after being tested extensively, with traders wary of their reduced freshness. 📈 Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch are 4784, 4793, and up to 4908-10. Particular attention is on 4793 for a potential sell reaction if the market sees a sustained upside. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case: Bulls aim to hold above 4778 and 4767-70, with 4793 a short-term target if we base build under it overnight. Bear Case: A failure of 4767 might signal a more substantial bearish move, with 4744/4736-38 the next focus for longs. Today's Strategy: Discipline and level-to-level trading are critical in the current choppy market. Watch 4778 and 4767-70 for early indications, with 4744 and 4736-38 as potential long zones if deeper dips occur. Disclosure This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Always consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Strategy and market sentiment are subject to change.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1/2 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Cautiously Watchful The market has shown signs of strain under recent volatility, breaking through several key support levels such as 4795-98. Focus is now sharply on 4777, a pivotal line that must hold to prevent further bearish momentum. Traders are approaching the market with a blend of caution and vigilance, balancing optimism with the readiness to adapt to downward trends. 📝 Recap: Steady Above Support In the latest session, the market continued its bullish trend until a breakdown at 4828 signaled potential weakness. Despite the noise typically associated with year-end trading, the market has been confined within a broad range since mid-December, with most activity between 4795 and 4838 being considered noise. The loss of support at 4828 introduces a note of caution into the previously bullish narrative. 🌜 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up strongly 🧐 Yields: Up significantly 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts J.P. Morgan's 2024 Economic Outlook: Anticipates a slowdown but not a recession, with potential rate cuts on the horizon. Global Economic Growth Projections: Expectations of a global slowdown to 2.6% in 2024 with mild recessions possible in Europe and the UK. Wall Street Optimism: Wall Street remains optimistic into 2024, despite changes in EV tax credits. China's Economic Moves: Coal tariffs restoration and a rise in iron ore prices following economic strengthening pledges. CFOs' Outlook for 2024: Preparation for a year of strategic challenges and anticipation of shifts in investment strategies. Oil at Sea: Oil surges due to escalating tensions in the Red Sea, triggered by Iran deploying a warship to the region. This follows the sinking of Houthi boats by the US, which had fired upon US warplanes defending a Maersk container ship from their attack. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55 indicates a neutral to bearish sentiment. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55 indicates a bearish sentiment. 📉 Support Levels Major Supports: 4816 (major), 4808, 4795-98 (major), 4777 (major) down to 4656-58 (major). Notable Support: 4829-31 and 4795-98 are critical, with a focus on 4795-98 for potential bullish defenses. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistances: 4834, 4838, up to 5011 (major). Key Resistance: 4829 is significant as it triggered the recent breakdown, watching for its role in potential future movements. 📝 Trading Plan Levels: Immediate Support (4-Hour): 4777 (recent low) Immediate Resistance (4-Hour): 4819 (recent high) Immediate Support (Daily): 4777 (recent low) Immediate Resistance (Daily): 4828 (recent high) Bull Case: For a bullish trend, 4777 must hold. Success here targets 4840+ and 4860-63. Watch for reversals at 4777. Bear Case: Bears gain if 4777 breaks, leading to potential short positions. Today's Outlook: Monitor 4777 for market direction. Happy New Year! 🎉 Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/29 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Friday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish The market sentiment remains bullish, with a strong upward trend persisting into the final day of 2023. Traders are maintaining a positive outlook, focusing on the support levels of 4829-31 and 4808-04 and resistance levels of 4834 and 4838. The general mood of traders is of cautious optimism, with many hoping to cap off the year with another breakout leg. 📝 Recap: Steady Above Support Yesterday's market activity saw a continuation of the bullish trend, with every long position working for weeks. The market experienced a failed breakdown of the 4828 level just before the close, providing an opportunity for traders to add a little long exposure. The 4829-31 support level was tested multiple times, reinforcing its significance. 🌜 The Markets Overnight Overnight, the market remained within the 4829-4838 zone, which is currently seen as pure chop and virtually untradable. Traders are waiting for proper range expansion before making any significant moves. The 4829-31 support level remains critical, and any dips below this level are quickly bought up. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Global Economic Forecasts: Schroders released global growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, examining the links between economies and stock markets. The World Trade Organization (WTO) slashed its growth forecast for global goods trade by more than 50%. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts global GDP to rise by 2.7% in 2024, down from 2.9% in 2023. Deloitte Insights suggests that equity prices are anticipatory and reflect a view that interest rates will come down soon, indicating a potential recovery in 2024. Interest Rates and Inflation: Central banks have increased interest rates across 2022 and 2023 to tackle inflation, with the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate reaching 5.25-5.5%. Market bets place a high probability on the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts as soon as March 2024. U.S. annual headline inflation slowed to 3.1% in November from 6.4% in January. Market Surprises and Performance: The Economist highlighted the five biggest market surprises of 2023, noting that forecasters had a difficult time as economic assumptions were overturned. The S&P 500 is close to a new record, with all three major stock indexes on pace for their ninth consecutive week of gains. Regional Economic News: The UK economy is stagnating as interest rate rises start to bite, and the IMF warns that UK interest rates will need to stay high into 2024. The Chinese economy's performance is a key variable for the global economy in 2024. Ecuador pledges austerity to win IMF support for its economic plan. Housing and Labor Markets: U.S. mortgage rates have been easing since late October, with the average long-term rate retreating for the ninth straight week. The labor market has been strong throughout 2023, driving economic growth. Stock Markets: World stocks are mixed in muted holiday trading as the year draws to a close. European shares opened higher, with gains in France and Germany, while Asian markets showed a mixed performance. Financial Sector and Jobs: The financial services industry faces risks from cyberattacks and new financial products creating debt. The impact of AI on jobs and the tightening of labor markets in many economies have been significant topics throughout the year. Oil Prices: Global inflation fears persist as oil prices rise towards $100 a barrel. Climate and Economy: Daily updates on climate change and the global economy indicate a growing concern about the intersection of environmental issues and economic performance. Other Economic Indicators Money market interest rates are fluctuating, with some rates reaching up to 5.13%. 📷 Snapshot Daily Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish 📉 Support Levels Major Support Levels: Major Supports: The major support levels for the upcoming trading day are 4829-31, 4823, 4815, 4808-04, 4788, 4782, 4776-78, 4764-67, 4756, 4743, 4733-36, 4720, 4708, 4698, 4692, 4684, 4675-78, 4665, 4658-60. Traders should pay particular attention to the 4829-31 and 4808-04 levels, as these have been tested multiple times and remain critical for the bullish trend. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistance Levels: Major Resistances: The major resistance levels for the upcoming trading day are 4834, 4838, 4843, 4847, 4854, 4861, 4870, 4877-81, 4893, 4903-06, 4911-14, 4925-27, 4933, 4945-50, 4958, 4963, 4976, 4983, 4990, 5005-08. The 4834 and 4838 levels are of particular interest, as these could potentially trigger a breakout leg. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: The bullish sentiment persists, and the key strategy remains to hold long positions and add on failed breakdowns. Upside targets include 4843, 4854, and 4861, with risk considerations focused on the 4829-31 and 4808-04 support levels. Bear Case Analysis: The market vulnerability begins when a support level fails. Critical levels include 4808-04, with short entry points considered after a good bounce/failed breakdown. Downside targets are level-to-level profit takes. Overall Outlook: The overall market outlook remains bullish, with key levels and resistance testing being of utmost importance. Traders should remain aware of the risks and be ready to adapt their strategies as necessary. Today’s Outlook: The market dynamics for the upcoming trading day are expected to continue the bullish trend, with specific profit strategies focused on long positions and shifts in sentiment or strategy based on support and resistance levels. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/28 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Santa Rally Continues The market remains steady as the traditional "Santa Rally" lifts spirits and prices. Bulls are in firm control with the critical support at 4808 serving as the line in the sand. 📝 Recap: Steady Above Support The market has been resilient, notably maintaining above the 4822 level. A late-day failed breakdown near the 4824 mark underscores the strength at these levels. Eyes are now closely watching the 4816 and 4808-06 supports, whose failure might trigger more pronounced selling. 🌜 The Markets Overnight Currently, the market is testing the 4834-36 resistance zone. Bullish continuation could see consolidation below this level, potentially offering opportunities for upward continuation. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Global Market Movements: US Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.79%. S&P 500 inched up, approaching its record close from January 2022. Hang Seng Index rebounded, driven by online and mobile gaming stocks and EV stocks. USDJPY extended losses amid falling US Treasury yields and Japan's stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production. Crude oil retreated, but copper and gold experienced gains. Central Bank Actions and Inflation: Central banks globally have increased interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation while trying to maintain growth. China's Market Rally: Chinese stocks rallied towards the year-end, with the CSI 300 Index gaining significantly as foreign investors bought onshore equities. Economic Predictions for 2024: Financial experts are considering the implications of continued high interest rates and the potential for a soft landing of the economy. Stock Market Performance: The Russell 2000 is on track for a significant two-month gain. Stocks are heading for gains at the end of the trading week, month, quarter, and year. Financial Scandals: The financial sector faced numerous scandals, including the collapse of Credit Suisse and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Cryptocurrency Developments: Bitcoin advances as optimism builds about ETF approval by the SEC. Cathie Wood's investment firm goes big into ProShares Bitcoin and dumps Grayscale. Technology and AI: New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement. Apple's iPhone design chief joins efforts to work on AI devices. Economic Forecasts and Concerns: There are concerns about a potential stock market crash amid quiet trading. Investors are advised to watch for data related to inflation, earnings, and unemployment. Geopolitical and Economic Challenges: The global economy faces challenges from geopolitical shocks, tight labor markets, and the impact of AI on jobs. Outrageous Predictions for 2024: With oil at $150, Saudis buy Champions League franchise. A major health crisis hits as obesity drugs make people stop exercising. Robert F. Kennedy Jr wins the 2024 US presidential election. Other Notable News: The New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI in a copyright case. The Bank of Japan may abandon yield curve control due to Japan's GDP growth. The EU introduces a wealth tax, impacting luxury demand. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish 📉 Support Levels Major Support Levels: Major Supports: 4822, 4816, 4808-06, 4795, 4788, 4778-4781, 4771-69, 4756-61, 4747, 4744, 4733-35, 4717-22, 4709-05, 4698, 4687, 4683, 4675-78, 4658-61, and 4642. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistance Levels: Major Resistances: 4834-36, 4843, 4854, 4860, 4874, 4880, 4890, 4899, 4906-08, 4914, 4925-30, 4845, 4953, 4963, 4976, 4990, and 5005. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market is showing signs of continued bullish momentum, with a current focus on maintaining above the key support levels. Key Strategy: Emphasis is placed on defending important support zones, particularly around 4808-06, which if held, could lead to a continued upward trajectory. Upside Targets: If the market sustains above these supports, we could see a move towards higher resistances at 4834-36 and upwards to 4843 and 4854. Risk Consideration: Given the low volume nature of the week, abrupt moves could occur, necessitating a flexible and responsive approach to trading. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market remains in a bullish stance until a crucial support at 4808-06 is decisively broken, potentially leading to a rapid shift in sentiment and increased selling pressure. Critical Levels: Watch for 4808-06 as the immediate line that, if breached, would significantly alter the bullish narrative. Short Entry Points: Any breakdown below these levels should be approached with caution, understanding the nature of high-risk breakdown trades. Downside Targets: A breach of support could lead to testing of subsequent lower levels, demanding vigilance and quick adaptation from traders. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The market's continued resilience above support levels like 4808-06 and 4816 augurs well for the bullish case, yet the need for vigilance remains paramount. Key Levels to Watch: The focus remains on how the market respects the 4808-06 and 4816 supports, with these levels serving as crucial indicators for the day's sentiment. Resistance Testing: Reaction to resistance levels, particularly at 4834-36, will provide further clues to the market's strength and potential for continued ascent. Risk Awareness: The unique nature of holiday trading requires a heightened awareness of potential volatility and unexpected moves. Strategy Adaptability: Traders are encouraged to maintain a flexible approach, ready to adjust strategies swiftly in response to market changes. Today’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The market's next steps are closely tied to its behavior around the 4808-06 and 4816 levels, with these supports being key to sustaining the current bullish momentum. Profit Strategy: A level-to-level trading approach is recommended, focusing on capitalizing on movements from these key support levels upwards while being prepared for any necessary shifts in strategy. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/27 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Santa Clause Rally The market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with the S&P 500 pushing to newer highs. However, there's an undercurrent of caution with the risk of corrective consolidation. The main focus is on major supports at 4813-16 and 4800 to maintain the rally. A sustained hold above these levels will be crucial for the continuation of the upward trend. 📝 Recap: Historical Santa Rally Period Yesterday marked a significant rally, reaching a crucial resistance zone at 4830-34. With the holiday week in effect, trading volumes are expected to be lower as institutional and professional traders step away from the market. The current long position from 4799 is being trailed with a stop, indicating a protective strategy against market fluctuations. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Stock Market Momentum: The S&P 500 is approaching record levels, carrying momentum into the shortened trading week after marking an eight-week winning streak. Investors are looking forward to the "Santa Claus Rally," a period of traditionally good days for stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Mortgage Rate Trends: Mortgage rates have dropped significantly, reaching their lowest level since mid-June. This decrease comes after the Federal Reserve indicated a likelihood of cutting the federal funds rate in the upcoming year. The lower rates are expected to increase homebuying activity in 2024. Global Market Movements: US equity futures edged higher, and the dollar remained stable as markets resumed post-Christmas. Asian stocks were mixed in light trading, with gains in emerging Asian currencies against a weakening dollar. Deal news, including the sale of Manchester United, lifted shares of some US-listed companies. Economic Forecasts: Analysts predict the global economy will slow further in 2024 despite easing pressures. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, the state of the US and Chinese economies, and the US presidential election will play significant roles in determining economic outcomes. Stock Market Review: The S&P 500 is on track to finish 2023 with a gain of about 21%. Despite various challenges, including inflation and rising interest rates, the US economy has shown resilience, and corporate profits are on the rise. Technology stocks have regained their lead, with mega-cap tech stocks contributing significantly to market gains. Gold Market: Gold prices have increased, heading for their first annual gain in three years. This rise is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and a weaker US currency. Corporate News: Intel plans to invest $25 billion in Israel after securing incentives. Manchester United's ownership saga concludes with a $1.3 billion deal involving Ratcliffe. Emerging Markets reflect on the lessons learned from a misjudged bet on China's post-pandemic recovery. Oil remains in focus amid geopolitical tensions, with the market watching for potential impacts on supply and prices. Nigeria has allowed banks to open accounts for crypto firms, signaling a shift in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish 📉 Support Levels Major Support Levels: 4822, 4813-16, 4800, 4795, 4788-86, 4778, 4768, 4751-56, 4741, 4730-34, 4719, 4714, 4709, 4698, 4693, 4680-84, 4673, 4665-68, 4658, 4647, 4641, 4635. Note: Particular attention is given to 4800 and 4751-56 for potential scalping opportunities in a level-to-level move. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistance Levels: 4830-34, 4860-63, 4879-82, 4905, 4925, 4948-53, 5005. Note: 4854 and 4860-64 are identified as potential reaction zones for those interested in counter-trend trading. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market continues its bullish trajectory, with a focus on defending major support levels to sustain the upward trend. Key Strategy: Vigilance at key support levels, particularly 4813-16 and 4800, is critical. A defense of these areas could maintain the rally's momentum. Upside Targets: Key targets include 4830-34 and 4860 if support levels hold. The market's ability to stay above these supports is crucial for continued bullish sentiment. Risk Consideration: Be mindful of the thin holiday trading volume and potential abrupt market moves. Even as the trend remains positive, sudden shifts are possible and require quick adaptation. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: A break below key supports at 4813-16 or 4800 could signal a shift to bearish sentiment. Critical Levels: The 4813-16 zone, followed by 4800, are pivotal. A sustained move below these levels could indicate a failed breakout and a potential sell-off. Short Entry Points: Should the market show weakness and break below the supports, these levels might serve as entry points for bearish trades, with a focus on managing risks and seeking confirmation. Downside Targets: Initial bearish targets would be the next major support levels, with each breaking point potentially leading to further downward momentum. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The bullish perspective depends on the market's ability to hold above 4813-16 and 4800. Maintaining these levels could lead to further gains. Key Levels to Watch: Close monitoring of 4813-16 and 4800 is essential. These levels serve as the barometer for market sentiment on the day. Resistance Testing: Reaction at resistance levels will provide insight into the market's strength or weakness, influencing the day's trading approach. Risk Awareness: Preparedness for volatility is key, especially in a holiday trading context with potentially unpredictable moves. Strategy Adaptability: Flexibility and responsiveness to market changes will be critical in navigating the day's trading successfully. Today’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The market's interaction with the identified support and resistance levels will dictate the short-term trend. The focus is on how these levels hold or break to determine the immediate trading strategy. Profit Strategy: A level-to-level approach is advised, with a readiness to capitalize on confirmed bullish or bearish movements. The plan includes being prepared for rapid shifts and ensuring trade entries and exits are well thought out and strategic. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/26 Trading Plan - Last Weeks Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Cautious Holiday Trading As we continue the holiday week, trading volume and liquidity are expected to decrease significantly with the exit of institutional money and many professionals on break. This typically results in choppier and less predictable price action, increasing the potential risk for traders. The holiday trading mode is expected to bring more subdued movements with occasional sharp volatility. 📝 Recap: Historical Santa Rally Period Last week, there was a noted failed breakdown of the overnight 4785 low, which occurred late in the trading day. The focus remains on key support and resistance levels, with a cautious eye on the choppier market dynamics typical of this time. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Stock Market Momentum: The S&P 500 is approaching record levels, carrying momentum into the shortened trading week after marking an eight-week winning streak. Investors are looking forward to the "Santa Claus Rally," a period of traditionally good days for stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Mortgage Rate Trends: Mortgage rates have dropped significantly, reaching their lowest level since mid-June. This decrease comes after the Federal Reserve indicated a likelihood of cutting the federal funds rate in the upcoming year. The lower rates are expected to increase homebuying activity in 2024. Global Market Movements: US equity futures edged higher, and the dollar remained stable as markets resumed post-Christmas. Asian stocks were mixed in light trading, with gains in emerging Asian currencies against a weakening dollar. Deal news, including the sale of Manchester United, lifted shares of some US-listed companies. Economic Forecasts: Analysts predict the global economy will slow further in 2024 despite easing pressures. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, the state of the US and Chinese economies, and the US presidential election will play significant roles in determining economic outcomes. Stock Market Review: The S&P 500 is on track to finish 2023 with a gain of about 21%. Despite various challenges, including inflation and rising interest rates, the US economy has shown resilience, and corporate profits are on the rise. Technology stocks have regained their lead, with mega-cap tech stocks contributing significantly to market gains. Gold Market: Gold prices have increased, heading for their first annual gain in three years. This rise is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and a weaker US currency. Corporate News: Samsung has delayed production at its new US factory until 2025. Intel plans to invest $25 billion in Israel after securing incentives. Manchester United's ownership saga concludes with a $1.3 billion deal involving Ratcliffe. Emerging Markets: Goldman Sachs reflects on the lessons learned from a misjudged bet on China's post-pandemic recovery. The bank had anticipated a significant rally in Chinese stocks and a broader boost to emerging markets, which did not materialize as expected. Oil Market: Oil remains in focus amid geopolitical tensions, with the market watching for potential impacts on supply and prices. Cryptocurrency: The ousted Binance founder CZ's fortune grew by $25 billion in 2023, and Nigeria has allowed banks to open accounts for crypto firms, signaling a shift in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. 📉 Support Levels Major Support Levels: 4795: A pivotal major support, holding key significance for upcoming trading dynamics. 4779-83: Another crucial major support zone, acting as a potential turnaround point in the market. Minor Support Levels: 4772, 4766, 4750-55, 4741, 4734, 4724, 4719, 4708-10, 4699, 4690, 4682, 4678, 4670, 4660-63, 4648, 4641, 4630-33, 4624, 4614, 4606. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistance Levels: 4800: The first line of major resistance, potentially leading to more significant market reactions. 4808 and 4812-15: Described as a heavy, messy resistance zone; crucial for the day's trading strategy. Minor Resistance Levels: 4825, 4830-33, 4838, 4847, 4853, 4860, 4867, 4877, 4883, 4890, 4894, 4905-07, 4914, 4925. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market is showing continued bullish momentum, with the S&P 500 futures (ES) indicating resilience and an upward trajectory. Key Strategy: Focus on established support zones, particularly around 4740-45, to initiate long positions. It's critical to avoid impulsive trading and wait for the market to come to these levels. Upside Targets: Maintaining above 4740-45 could propel the market towards the next levels of interest at 4767 and 4788. For a significant bullish continuation, eyes are on surpassing the 4810-12 threshold. Risk Consideration: Despite the prevailing bullish sentiment, be mindful of recent selling pressures and market shifts. The landscape can change swiftly, requiring constant vigilance. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market stands at a pivotal point; a drop below the 4740 support could shift the trend to bearish. Critical Levels: The 4740-45 zone is crucial; a breakdown here could serve as an early bearish indicator. Short Entry Points: If weakness appears, consider short positions near 4736 but ensure to avoid rash decisions. Wait for confirmatory signals. Downside Targets: A confirmed bearish trend could open opportunities towards 4715 and 4705-08 as initial targets for bearish profits. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The bullish outlook is contingent on the market's ability to hold and rebound from the 4740-45 support area. Key Levels to Watch: Keep a close watch on 4740-45 for support and 4767 & 4788 for potential resistance or breakout points. Resistance Testing: Be attentive to how the market reacts at established resistance levels, as a breakthrough or rejection can dictate the next move. Risk Awareness: Anticipate increased volatility and the possibility of both upward and downward movements, staying ready to adapt as needed. Strategy Adaptability: Flexibility in strategy will be key, especially in responding to real-time market changes and sentiment. Today’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The immediate focus will be on the market's interaction with the 4740-45 area, which will likely determine the short-term direction. Profit Strategy: Employ a level-to-level trading approach, ready to capitalize on either bullish continuation or bearish reversal, depending on how the market unfolds. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/21 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Friday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Muted Santa Rally Expectations Despite some anticipations of a quieter Santa Rally this year, the market is expected to navigate through a "choppier" holiday season than usual. Flexibility and adaptability in trading strategies are emphasized over predictions. 📝 Recap: Historical Santa Rally Period Historically, the "Santa Rally" begins with the final trading session before the holidays, typically from December 22nd to January 4th. Over the last 30 years, this period has averaged a seasonal return of +1.4%. Yet, a significant drop-off in market activity is expected during the holidays, potentially leading to lower-quality trading. 🌏 The Markets Overnight: Market Closure and Projections The IMF has lowered GDP growth projections for advanced economies to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, highlighting global economic slowdown concerns, while central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, raise interest rates to address persistent inflation. Emerging markets exhibit mixed economic trends, with weakened industrial activity but prospects for a 'Soft Landing' in some countries. China's growth has slowed in Q4, India's GDP outlook is positive for 2024, Brazil considers rate cuts, and Argentina faces peso devaluation issues. The US economy remains resilient with robust growth, buoyed by consumer spending and a strong job market, as the Biden-Harris Administration's policies aim to promote real wage growth and a healthy labor market in a context of reducing inflation. 🔍 Key Structures: Important Trading Zones Key structures to watch include a broad chop region between 4750-4810. The first major support zone lies at 4777-81, with any dips into the 4730s that recover from yesterday's low signaling strong buy opportunities. 📉 Support Levels: Support Zones for Trading Support levels are set at 4793, 4788, 4777-81 (major), 4772 (major), 4761, 4756, 4745-50 (major), 4737, 4732-34 (major), 4719, 4712, 4705-08 (major), 4698, 4692, 4685 (major), 4675, 4666, 4661 (major), 4648, 4641, 4625-30 (major), 4616, 4606 (major), 4591-93 (major), 4585. 📈 Resistance Levels: Identified Resistance Points Key resistance levels include 4797 (major), 4811 (major), 4816, 4822, 4830 (major), 4838, 4845, 4849, 4855-60 (major), 4871, 4876, 4883-86 (major), 4893, 4903-06 (major). 📝 Trading Plan: Strategy for Market Engagement The trading strategy focuses on holding the 4745-50 area, quickly buying up dips below this level. Bulls aim to maintain the 4777-81 zone on dips, test the 4811 level, and form a base for a potential upward movement through 4811. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market retains a strong bullish trend, with the ES (S&P 500 futures) demonstrating resilience. Key Strategy: Concentrate on key support levels, such as 4740-45, for long positions, and avoid chasing the market. Upside Targets: A hold above 4740-45 could lead to a bounce towards 4767 and potentially 4788. A major upward move necessitates reclaiming 4810-12. Risk Consideration: Stay vigilant of market shifts; despite the bullish trend, the recent selling adds complexity. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market is at a critical juncture; losing the 4740 level could indicate a bearish turn. Critical Levels: Monitor the 4740-45 range closely for any bearish signals. Short Entry Points: In case of weakness, consider shorts with a trigger around 4736, while avoiding impulsive trades. Downside Targets: If a bearish trend confirms, look to profit from support levels at 4715 and 4705-08. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The market may continue its bullish trend if 4740-45 sustains. Key Levels to Watch: Focus on critical supports at 4740-45 and resistance levels at 4767 and 4788. Resistance Testing: Monitor whether the market tests and breaks through higher resistance levels. Risk Awareness: Prepare for increased volatility and a bi-directional market movement. Strategy Adaptability: Be ready to adjust strategies based on market responses. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The focus is on the performance of the 4740-45 level for potential upward movement. Profit Strategy: Aim for level-to-level trading, adapting to both bullish and bearish scenarios. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/20 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Shifting Tides Amidst Volatility Despite a recent downturn, the market remains in a robust uptrend. The S&P 500 Futures experienced a red day, triggering a sell-off, but the bulls are still in play, awaiting a reclaim of certain resistance levels. Critical for the bulls is the 4740 area; holding above this level could initiate upward momentum. However, a failure to maintain this could signal the start of a downward trend. 🌐 Pre-Market Overview Asian-Pacific Markets: Declines across most indices, with Hang Seng and Nikkei showing notable drops, indicating regional market uncertainty. European Markets: A mixed scenario with FTSE 100 gaining, while DAX shows minor losses, reflecting varied investor sentiment in Europe. Commodities: Oil and natural gas prices are down, indicating potential shifts in energy market dynamics. Gold and silver show minor declines amidst a volatile trading environment. Currencies: The Euro and Pound are slightly up against the USD, while the Yen shows a noticeable decline, hinting at currency market fluctuations. U.S. Treasurys: Minor changes in yields across various maturities, signaling a stable bond market environment. U.S. Indexes: Russell 2000 and other major indexes like NASDAQ 100 and NYSE experienced declines, pointing towards a cautious stance among U.S. investors. Sector Movements: Technology and consumer staples sectors are down, reflecting broader market apprehensions. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Political Developments: Michigan considers removing Trump from the 2024 ballot, similar to actions in California, while Republicans consider strategies to disqualify Biden from ballots. This points to heightened political maneuvering ahead of the 2024 elections. Media and Entertainment: Warner Bros Discovery is potentially eyeing a mega-merger with Paramount, shaking up the entertainment industry. Additionally, Mediaite has declared its list of the most influential figures in media, including notable names like Hannity, Morning Joe, Megyn Kelly, and Drudge. International Tensions: Putin escalates military pressure, threatening to invade EU countries and expecting Western support for Kyiv to dwindle. In Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping warns President Biden of his intention to take Taiwan by any means necessary, raising global security concerns. Health and Society: A study warns of a looming 'Pandemic of Inactivity,' potentially the next global health crisis. Meanwhile, the concept of 'sick shaming' leading to overmedication is gaining attention, and there are discussions about whether the USA is in a 'silent depression.' Technology and Science: Developments in tech include scientists creating a vaccine to lower cholesterol and the use of AI to predict life expectancy with chilling accuracy. Additionally, reports reveal that Twitter assisted the Pentagon in a covert online propaganda campaign. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: 9 and 21 showing a bearish trend while sitting above the 55. Overall Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish 📉 Support Levels Major: Watch for 4748, 4740-45, 4734, 4730, and 4724 for immediate support. Other crucial levels include 4715, 4705-08, 4698, 4690, 4684, and 4678. Minor: Key minor support levels to monitor include 4669, 4660-63, 4656-58, 4647, 4644, 4634, 4626, 4618-20, and 4613. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: Resistance levels to keep an eye on are 4756, 4766, 4772, 4781, 4788, 4797-95, 4810-12, 4820, 4826-29, 4838, 4853, 4860, 4868, 4875, 4882-86, 4903, 4913, 4924, 4933, 4946, 4952, 4962, 4976, 4990, 4497, 5006. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: Despite recent selling, the market's strong uptrend persists. The ES (S&P 500 futures) has demonstrated resilience, but now requires reclaiming key resistances to initiate upward movement. Key Strategy: Focus on key support levels like 4740-45 for long positions, with a cautious approach. It's crucial not to chase but wait for a test and acceptance of these levels. Upside Targets: If 4740-45 holds, there's potential for a bounce to 4767, and further to 4788. A major move upwards requires reclaiming the 4810-12 area. Risk Consideration: Be aware of the shift in market dynamics; while bullish sentiment is strong, the recent sell-off introduces new variables. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market is at a pivotal point; a failure to hold 4740 could signal the start of a downward trend. Critical Levels: Pay close attention to the 4740-45 range. A breakdown below this could shift the market sentiment to bearish. Short Entry Points: In case of weakness, consider short positions with a trigger around 4736, ensuring disciplined trading without chasing. Downside Targets: If the bearish scenario plays out, subsequent support levels at 4715 and 4705-08 become relevant for profit-taking. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The market might continue its bullish trend if 4740-45 holds, but traders need to stay alert for any shifts. Key Levels to Watch: Critical supports at 4740-45, and resistances at 4767 and 4788 will be crucial in determining the market's direction. Resistance Testing: If the market maintains its bullish stance, higher resistance levels could be tested. Risk Awareness: The market is more volatile with expanded bi-directional action expected. Traders should remain vigilant. Strategy Adaptability: Be prepared to adapt strategies based on the market's response at these pivotal levels. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The focus will be on whether 4740-45 holds for a potential bounce, or if it fails, shifting the attention to lower support levels like 4715 and 4705-08. Profit Strategy: Aim to take points level to level, with a clear plan for both bullish and bearish scenarios. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/19 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Sustained Bullish Sentiment The market has recently demonstrated a notable positive trend, marked by nine consecutive days of gains. This upward movement might align with the phenomenon known as a "Santa Rally," traditionally observed in the stock market towards the end of December and the beginning of January. Typically, this rally is attributed to increased holiday spending, year-end investor optimism, and portfolio adjustments for the new year. However, it's important to maintain a disciplined approach to trading, focusing on specific levels and indicators rather than relying solely on seasonal sentiment. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Political Landscape: Trump's 2024 ballot status is in limbo due to Colorado Supreme Court's ruling. Economic Movements: The dollar's struggle amid rate cut expectations, yen's weakening, and global stock market responses. Gold Market: Prices rise as the dollar and yields ease. Regulatory Actions: Swiss and ECB's new measures post Credit Suisse collapse. Southeast Asia's Tech Scene: Advised to find sustainable profitability amid funding challenges. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4810, 4806, 4794, 4788, 4781-78, 4772, 4766, 4760, 4753, 4747, 4737, 4734-30, 4719, 4708-10, 4702, 4698, 4692, 4680-78, 4673, 4662-65, 4658, 4650-52, 4647, 4634, 4630, 4624, 4618, 4606. Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4815, 4822, 4826-28, 4836-38, 4851, 4860, 4869, 4877, 4883, 4893, 4902, 4906, 4912, 4918, 4925, 4933, 4946, 4953, 4964, 4977, 4990, 4995, 5005. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market maintains a bullish stance with the ES (S&P 500 futures) showcasing nine consecutive green days, indicating a strong upward momentum. Recent Performance: The bullish run has been robust, with the market consistently closing at daily highs, underlining the strength of the current trend. Key Strategy: The focus is on waiting for price discovery. Important to monitor key support levels, particularly 4810 and 4794, for potential entry points. Upside Targets: If support holds, especially at 4810 and 4794, the market is poised to test higher levels at 4825-27, then potentially extend gains towards 4838 and 4860. Risk Consideration: While the bullish sentiment prevails, traders should remain alert for any sudden shifts in market dynamics. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: Despite the strong bullish trend, there is a risk of the market transitioning to a "sell bounces" regime, especially if the ES fails to sustain its momentum. Critical Levels: Watch for any breaks below key supports, especially 4810, 4794, and 4778-81. A decline below these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment. Short Entry Points: Should the market show weakness, particularly below the 4810 and 4794 levels, short positions could be considered, with a focus on disciplined trading and risk management. Downside Targets: In a bearish scenario, subsequent support levels like 4781-78, 4772, and lower may come into play, offering potential profit-taking points for short positions. Overall Outlook: While the current sentiment is bullish, traders should be prepared for a potential reversal and adjust their strategies accordingly. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The market is expected to maintain its bullish momentum, following nine consecutive green days in the ES (S&P 500 futures). Key Levels to Watch: Critical support levels at 4810 and 4794 will be in focus. Their resilience or breach could dictate market direction. Resistance Testing: If bullish sentiment persists, watch for a potential push towards higher resistance levels, especially around 4825-27, leading up to 4838 and 4860. Risk Awareness: Despite the ongoing bullish trend, traders should stay vigilant for any sudden shifts, considering the recent extended run. Strategy Adaptability: Be prepared to adjust strategies in response to market reactions at these pivotal levels, especially if the market shows signs of reversing its current trend. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/18 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Trend with Cautious Watch The market continues its upward trajectory, indicated by 8 consecutive green days, but now faces a critical juncture just under major resistance. While the bullish trend is dominant, traders should be vigilant for any trend reversals. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Tesla's Wage Increase: Impacts on union interest at the Nevada Gigafactory. North Korea's ICBM Launch: Escalating geopolitical tensions. Market Reactions: Mixed signals with rising Treasury yields and fluctuating European and Asian markets. Venezuela-Guyana Territorial Dispute: Agreement to resolve peacefully. China's Economic Challenges: Deflation risks highlighted by falling pork prices. Crypto Political Influence: Super PAC's significant funding for the 2024 elections. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: New EU sanctions amidst Putin's re-election plans. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4788-90, 4781, 4772, 4766, 4763, 4753, 4744, 4730-34, 4726, 4719, 4708, 4698-4700, 4692, 4684, 4673, 4663-66, 4654, 4648, 4634, 4630, 4618-20. Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4796, 4806, 4810-12, 4817, 4825-27, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4873, 4883, 4900, 4906, 4910, 4923-25, 4932, 4945, 4953, 4962, 4976, 4990, 5002. Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Key Levels: 4781, 4772. Strategy: Maintain the breakout, targeting 4808-10. Risks: Be cautious after 8 green days, the trend could shift. Bear Case Analysis: Target Short Entry: If 4773 fails, consider shorts with caution. Profit Targets: Watch for potential dips towards 4708. Strategy: Discipline in profit-taking is key, watch for market traps. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Discipline and Strategy: Monitor 4781 and 4773 supports closely. The market remains bullish, but a shift is possible at any moment. Monitor support and resistance levels diligently and adjust strategies as needed. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/17 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish The market has been on a steady upward trend, with the March ES contract rolling from December front month to March. The key support and resistance levels have been identified, focusing on the 4756-58 to 4786 range. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The discovery of a large tunnel near the Gaza border by Israel has sparked concerns about the adequacy of its prewar intelligence. In the U.S., the Biden campaign has sharply criticized Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric, comparing it to Adolf Hitler. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair has cautioned against irrational market optimism despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. As inflation shows signs of decline, there's skepticism about whether corporate America will lower prices. Meanwhile, stock futures remain stable following a seven-week rally in major market averages. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4770-72, 4766, 4756-58, 4750, 4743, 4731-34, 4724, 4719, 4704-08, 4699, 4692, 4687, 4683, 4678, 4674, 4764-66, 4660, 4654, 4647, 4644. Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4776, 4781-83, 4786, 4794, 4808-10, 4817, 4826, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4871, 4877, 4883, 4900-05, 4920, 4925, 4933, 4945, 4953, 4963, 4975, 4985-90, 5002. Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis Recent Trend: The S&P 500 futures (ES) maintain a bullish momentum with 7 consecutive green weeks. Premise: Expecting further uptrend, consolidating within the 4756-4786 range. Key Zone: 4756-58, critical for bulls. Watch for consolidation and potential breakout towards 4808-10. Strategy: Bulls anticipate a continuation pattern within this range, eyeing a push to higher resistance levels. Risk Factors: Key risk includes a breakdown below 4756, leading to potential backtest towards lower supports. Bear Case Analysis Premise: Potential for a downturn if key support at 4756 is breached. Target Short Entry: Around 4752 post-breakdown of 4756. Profit Targets: Aim for 4740-43 and lower if the breakdown occurs. Strategy: High-risk/reward breakdown trades; caution advised due to their challenging nature. Execution: Avoid impulsive trades; focus on clear setups and key levels. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/14 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Stay light on OPEX day due to the potential for choppy trading. Look for a potential base building in the 4756-83 range for a potential leg up to the 4804-08 zone. If 4756 fails, prepare for a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a lot 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Markets rally strongly on FOMC Dot Plot forecasting 3 rates cuts totaling up to 0.9% in 2024. European Central Bank and the Bank of England each hold rates steady this morning. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4772, 4756, 4740-43, 4710-05, 4660-65 Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4780-83, 4804-08, 4845, 4860-63 Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis Scenario Overview: Recent Trend: ES (S&P 500 futures) has experienced a strong bullish trend, marked by six consecutive green days. Bull Case Premise: Continuation of the uptrend through pattern formation and support maintenance. Key Levels and Patterns: Support Zone: 4756, pivotal for bulls to maintain control. Target Range: 4756-4783, seen as a potential consolidation area. Upside Objective: A move towards the 4804-08 zone, acting as a magnet level. Strategy and Risks: Pattern Building: Bulls expect ES to form a continuation pattern within the target range, setting the stage for another leg up. Risk of Breakdown: Failure to hold 4756 increases the risk of a backtest towards the 4710-05 area. Execution Caution: Traders should be wary of false breakouts and maintain strict risk management. Bear Case Analysis Scenario Overview: Bear Case Premise: A break below key support leading to a downward move. Key Levels and Patterns: Critical Support: 4756, the level below which breakdown trades become viable. Target Short Entry: Around 4752, following a failed bounce at 4756. Profit Targets: First target at 4740-43, capturing the move below the day's low. Strategy and Risks: Breakdown Trades: These are high risk/reward but have a low success rate (60% expected to fail). Execution Skill: Requires skill to execute successfully; not advisable for traders uncomfortable with these odds. Rule of Thumb: Avoid chasing the price; wait for a clear trade setup and reaction at the key level. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/13 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed, China down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts COP28 deal calls for the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030 and the eventual phase-out of fossil fuels. Today’s quarterly FOMC Economic Projections will contain an updated Dot Plot showing projects for the future of the Fed Funds Rate. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4758-60, 4734, 4710 Minor: 4743, 4720, 4701 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4772, 4780-85, 4808 Minor: 4793, 4812, 4820 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: For bullish scenarios, holding above major supports such as 4758-60 and then pushing towards levels like 4772. Bearish Scenario: For bearish scenarios, a focus on support failures, particularly at 4710-12, would signal a potential trend change and warrant a shift towards short positions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/12 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Very near unchanged after declining 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down slightly but well off the lows 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts CPI inflation prints very slightly hotter m/m, inline with expectations. COP28 hits roadblock over fossil fuels phaseout language. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 🔍 Key Resistance Levels: 4755: Long-term target 4685-4697: (current) 🔍 Key Support Levels: 4630-4635: (current) 4573 & 4580: Significant resistance-turned-support zone. 4556-4558: Indicating a choppy trading range. 4540-4542: Acting as support post-breakout. 4514 & 4497: Important back-testing zones. 4450: Immediate backtest point previous post-CPI announcement. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4668, 4635-4630, 4593-4596, 4565-4560 Minor: 4661, 4655, 4647, 4642, 4617-4620, 4606, 4585, 4576, 4547, 4534, 4524, 4511-4513, 4504, 4485, 4475, 4466, 4458, 4449, 4433, 4426, 4410-4415, 4405, 4392, 4386, 4377, 4366, 4353, 4342, 4331, 4320, 4310 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4685-4697, 4710-4713, 4723, 4734, 4743, 4753-4756, 4768, 4775, 4788, 4794, 4805-4810, 4816, 4826, 4838, 4860, 4869, 4885 Minor: 4673, 4697, 4718, 4734, 4743, 4768, 4775, 4788, 4794, 4816, 4826 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Watch key support at 4668 and 4635-4630 for potential entry points on a reclaim. Bearish Scenario: Resistance at 4685 could offer short opportunities if it fails to break, but with the trend being bullish, counter-trend trades are not preferred. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/11 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Both the 4-hour and daily data indicate a bullish sentiment for the S&P 500 Index Futures, with closing prices consistently above the 9, 21, and 55 EMAs. 🔄 Market Recap Last Thursday's rally from 4556 to 4590 occurred on a textbook failed breakdown. This was followed by another squeeze after the NFP release last Friday, due to yet another failed breakdown. The market exhibited a strong performance with closing prices maintaining above key EMA levels, indicating sustained bullish momentum. This trend was consistent across both the daily and 4-hour charts. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up, Japan down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Japanese stocks continue their steep decline fall, the Yen continues to rally as traders expect the Bank of Japan will exit it’s longtime negative rate policy this month. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Closest Support and Resistance: Support at 4580, resistance at 4632. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Closest Support and Resistance: Support at 4580, resistance at 4642. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 🔍 Key Resistance Levels: 4755: Long-term target, significant in current market context. 4680-4685: Crucial for validating bullish trend strength. 4658: First major breakout zone. 4642-4645: Key current market zone. 4620-4625: Potential for breach due to significant basing. 🔍 Key Support Levels: 4573 & 4580: Significant resistance-turned-support zone. 4556-4558: Indicating a choppy trading range. 4540-4542: Acting as support post breakout. 4514 & 4497: Important back-testing zones. 4450: Immediate backtest point post-CPI announcement. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4556, 4539-42, 4520, 4496, 4463, 4450, 4431, 4408, 4389 Minor: 4548, 4530, 4524, 4512, 4507, 4485, 4475, 4443, 4436, 4418, 4414, 4399 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4573, 4580, 4590-93, 4618-22, 4640-42, 4657, 4680-84, 4711, 4727, 4747, 4755 Minor: 4565, 4597, 4609, 4633, 4648, 4666, 4693, 4704, 4722, 4739-41 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Sustaining above key supports and breaching resistances, particularly at 4620-4625 and 4658, suggests a continuation of the bullish trend. Bearish Scenario: A reversal below key supports, notably below 4556, could signify a shift to bearish sentiment. 💡 Wrap Up In conclusion, last week was good for the market with a bullish trend. However, some hangover is likely today, and the market will most likely be waiting for CPI and FOMC releases to commit to further moves. As long as 4647-4540 holds on dips, the market can continue the path higher to 4660, 4667, and 4685 target. If 4640 fails, we test 4624, potentially leading to a sell-off. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
3