EURUSD | Time For A Pullback?The week kicked off with strong impulsive moves to the upside, leaving no room for deeper correction. Then slowly from Wednesday, we started to see a decline in strength in the bullish run.
Now, with price edging toward the next swing low for a possible bearish change of character, is this a good way to ride the stream to the downside?
Keep your A-game on as we watch price unfold, and trade reactively to price movement.
Do not forget to guard your capitals with risk management.
Good luck traders. 👍
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Eur-usd
EURUSD: FOMC, PCE, NFP, JOLTs - busy week guaranteedThe ECB meeting was one of the major events during the previous week, when it comes to macro data. As it was widely expected, the ECB left rates unchanged, amid uncertainties related to trade tariffs with the U.S.. The ECB maintains its previous macro outlook, viewing the Euro Zone economy as resilient but facing downside risks. President Lagarde highlighted global trade tensions, geopolitical instability and negative shifts in market sentiment as key risks to further growth. At the same time, Lagarde dismissed concerns about the stronger euro, reiterating that the ECB does not target the exchange rate directly. With the inflation level of 2% and deposit rate of 2%, the ECB is in the position to take a wait-and-see stance on further rate cuts, although some analysts are mentioning the possibility of another 25bps cut in September.
Other macro data for the Euro Zone and Germany include the HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for July, which stood at 49,8 for the Euro Zone and 49,2 for Germany. Both indicators were standing in line with market expectations. The Ifo business Climate in Germany in July reached 88,6, in line with market forecast.
The previous week was relatively weak when it comes to currently important macro data for the U.S. economy. Posted data include Existing Home Sales in June, which reached 3,93M and were a bit lower from forecasted 4,0M. The indicator dropped by 2,7% compared to the previous month. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash for July reached 49,5 a bit lower from market forecast of 52,6. At the same time the S&P Global Services PMI flash for July beat market expectation with the level of 55,2. The durable Goods Orders in June dropped by -9,3% compared to the previous month, which was a bit lower from -10,8% expected by the market.
The ECB meeting left its mark on the parity of eurusd currency pair during the previous week. The euro strengthened till the level of 1,1786, but eased as of the end of the week, closing it at 1,1742. The currency pair was testing the 1,17 support line on Friday's trading session. The RSI continues to move at levels above the 50 line, ending the week modestly below the level of 60. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication of a potential cross in the near term period.
The week ahead is an important one from the perspective of macro data. A bunch of currently closely watched data for the U.S. will be posted, including PCE, NFP, JOLTs, Unemployment rate in July. In addition to data, the FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday, July 30th, where the Fed will decide on interest rates. Current market expectation is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at this meeting. However, the final decision is with the Fed, in which case, any surprises might significantly move the currency pair toward one side. Also, in case of surprises with any of the above mentioned macro data the market reaction could bring higher volatility. Precaution in trading with eurusd in the week ahead is highly advisable. As per current charts, there is a high probability that the currency pair will move to the downside to test the 1,17 support level for one more time. Levels around the 1,1650 might also be shortly tested. In case that the market decides for a higher ground, there is some probability for the level of 1,18, as the next resistance level to be tested shortly.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: GDP Growth Rate for Q2 for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in Germany in July, Inflation rate in Germany and the Euro Zone preliminary for July,
USD: JOLTs Job Openings in June, GDP Growth Rate for Q2, Pending Home Sales in June, the FOMC meeting and Fed interest rate decision will be held on Wednesday, July 30th, PCE Price Index for June will be posted on Thursday, July 31st, Non-farm Payrolls for July, Unemployment rate in July, ISM Manufacturing PMI in July, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for July.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1693
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1619
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1806
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
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Bearish reversal off 161.8% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resitance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci rretracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1786
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.1828
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
Take profit: 1.1691
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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What's Next On EURUSDPrice currently leans toward a bearish pullback after a series of impulsive bullish moves. So far, we haven’t seen any significant retracement since the rally began. As we anticipate a potential correction, could this be the awaited moment for the bears to step in—especially with only weaker structures left behind and bearish pressure building?
Regardless, every market scenario demands discipline and proper risk management.
Thinking of taking this outlook? Be sure to wait for strong confirmation before jumping in.
Good luck, traders, as we watch price unfold.
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Bullish momentum to extend?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 127.2% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 1.1746
1st Support: 1.1659
1st Resistance: 1.1907
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1660
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1593
Why we like it:
There is a multi swing low support that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1813
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
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Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1812
1st Support: 1.1608
1st Resistance: 1.1903
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
The EUR & the USD. Events that can affect the move this weekThis week we are monitoring EUR and USD carefully, as we could see some interesting moves, due to some events on the economic calendar. Let's dig in.
FX_IDC:EURUSD
MARKETSCOM:EURUSD
TVC:DXY
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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Bullish bounce off overlap support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1661
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1615
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1744
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
#012: LONG Investment Opportunity on EUR/USD
In this scenario, I placed a passive long order on EUR/USD at a key zone that has shown signs of accumulation and institutional defense in recent days.
The price showed bearish manipulation followed by a sharp rebound with a V-shaped pattern, often indicative of stop-loss hunting. In these phases, a direct entry is less effective than a passive strategy aimed at intercepting a possible technical pullback in the zone where abnormal volumes and algorithmic defenses have manifested.
The order was designed to be activated only if the market were to temporarily return to the previously absorbed zone, thus avoiding chasing the price after a directional candlestick.
The stop-loss placement was carefully chosen to avoid both typical retail hunting zones and areas visible to algorithms. It is positioned to ensure operational invisibility, but also consistency with the logic of institutional defense: if reached, the trade will be automatically invalidated.
The target is aligned with the superior technical structure and the normal range of movement that develops when this dynamic is respected.
This operation is designed to be left to operate completely autonomously, without the need for adjustments or active management. Either in or out. The sole objective is to align with institutional flows, with controlled risk and a favorable management structure.
EURUSD Will the 1D MA50 hold?The EURUSD pair seems to be rebounding just before a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test, which is its short-term Support. At the same time it bounced off the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which after a +6.92% rise, it resembles the March 27 rebound.
The 1D RSI is printing a standard bullish reversal setup, seen already 4 times since February, and a break above its MA will confirm it.
As long as the 1D MA50 holds, it may extend the uptrend to a new Channel Up (dashed), outside the blue one that may look for a new +6.92% rise. In that case our Target will be 1.21000.
If the 1D MA50 breaks, we will add one last buy at 1.14000, near the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
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EURUSD Bullish ProjectionIt’s been a while since my last update here.
Here’s my projection and actual entry/entries on EURUSD, based on a sweep of the previous 1H swing low and mitigation of a Daily imbalance (Fair Value Gap).
We're anticipating a full Change of Character to mark the end of the ongoing Daily pullback.
EURUSD is Nearing the Daily Uptrend! Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.15800 zone, EURUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.15800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bullish momentum to extend?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1584
1st Support: 1.1448
1st Resistance: 1.1809
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our tale profit.
Entry: 1.1667
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1736
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1535
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURO - Price can continue to decline in falling channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
For a long time, the price was moving within a large ascending wedge, showing a gradual upward trend.
However, buyers failed to maintain momentum, and the price made a decisive breakout below the wedge's support line.
Following the breakout, the instrument established a new structure, a local falling channel, and has been trading within its boundaries since.
Currently, the price is in a corrective upward move, approaching the key resistance area of $1.1630 - $1.1660.
This zone is significant as it aligns with a previous support level and the upper boundary of the current falling channel.
I expect that the price will face rejection from this resistance area and will then continue its decline towards the channel's support line, targeting the $1.1465 level.
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EURUSD is Nearing an Important Support!!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.15400 zone, EURUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.15400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish breakout off major support?EUR/USD is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a breakout of this level could lead the price to drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1587
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1666
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance.
Take profit: 1.1451
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EUR/USD - Daily Chart (Wedge Breakout) (16.07.2025) The EUR/USD Pair on the D1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0956
2nd Support – 1.0625
💡 Fundamental & Sentiment Context
Euro under pressure amid renewed concerns over EU‑US trade friction .
The USD is strengthening, supported by safe‑haven flows amid tariff uncertainties.
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