EURCHF – Bearish Channel Holds Firm, CHF Strength Set to ResumeEURCHF just tapped into the descending channel resistance again and is showing signs of rejecting. I'm expecting a bearish continuation here, especially given the strong CHF momentum recently, supported by safe-haven flows and Swiss inflation stability. If the pair fails to break above 0.9340, I’m watching for a downside push back toward 0.9270–0.9265, completing another leg within the structure.
🔍 Technical Setup (4H):
Channel Structure: EURCHF remains firmly within a downward-sloping parallel channel since mid-June.
Resistance Rejection: Price recently tested upper channel resistance (~0.9335–0.9340 zone), aligning with trendline rejection.
Target Support: 0.9270–0.9265 (channel base and key horizontal level).
Confluence: CHFJPY overlay (pink line) is rising again, suggesting renewed CHF strength—this usually weighs on EURCHF.
💡 Fundamental Insight:
EUR Side:
ECB officials remain cautious, but with recent EU data showing weaker growth (especially PMIs and sentiment), euro upside is capped.
The ECB is likely to pause further tightening, while other central banks like SNB remain firm on inflation risks.
CHF Strength:
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) still leans hawkish, with stable inflation giving room to hold rates steady or tighten if needed.
CHF benefits from risk-off flows amid global tariff headlines, China slowdown, and Middle East tensions.
Rising CHFJPY = clear CHF strength across the board.
⚠️ Risks:
If eurozone data surprises to the upside (e.g., inflation rebounds), EURCHF could break out of the channel.
A sudden drop in geopolitical tension or strong risk-on rally could weaken CHF as safe-haven demand falls.
SNB jawboning or FX intervention is always a wildcard.
🧭 Summary:
I’m bearish on EURCHF while it respects this well-defined descending channel. The technicals show consistent lower highs and lower lows, while the fundamentals continue to support CHF strength due to risk aversion, stable inflation, and a resilient SNB. My short bias is valid as long as price remains below 0.9340, with downside targets at 0.9270–0.9265. CHFJPY rising confirms franc leadership across FX markets, and EURCHF is likely a lagger following broader CHF strength.
