Eureferendum — Trading Ideas on TradingView

*BREXIT* GBPUSD !Hello Traders, As we are drawing closer to the EU referendum, and a potential BREXIT I would like to post my bias. We have an abundance of confluence supporting a continuation of the overall bearish trend of the GBPUSD. We have the 200 EMA acting as resistance, which has held after being tested on a number of occasions. We are currently at a resistance zone around 1.46840. We have bearish divergence on RSI supporting a move down. We have a bearish flag pattern indicating a possible move down. Can we close today with a shooting star candlestick pattern? This typically indicates a reversal, thus supporting a move down. Please note that I will not necessarily trade this. Feel free to follow, like, share and comment. Instagram: @KashMarkets

EUR/GBP - POST REFERENDUM Evaluating the strength of the EUR against GBP, comparing this to GBP/USD, August seems to be a key month where we see the beginning of a trend occur following economic events such as a recession, eurozone crisis, eu referendum etc.. Following events yesterday, the GBP has significantly declined in value and i believe below are a few reasons that has resulted in the decline of the pound and could see it decline further: 1) Foreign Direct Investment - with high levels of volatility and uncertainty, with the threat of now entering a recession, the levels of FDI will decline. 2) Immigration - migrants from the EU have grew the workforce by 0.5% in the past 12 months, helping to achieve growth in the economy, something the UK economy will now lose access to through the free movement of labour. 3) Housing Market - we could see a fall now in house prices, again foreign investors will be reluctant to invest in property when they are uncertain of the future economic effects the EU referendum could have on the country. From the reasons above i suspect a huge decline in the value of the pound. From this, i expect the value of the EUR against the GBP to increase to the projected value of around 0.87834 which are 2013 highs. At the moment we are testing the 61.8% fibonnaci retracement level of 0.80996, once we break through this i expect a strong move towards upwards. Let me know what you think in the comments below.

GBP/USD - IMPACT OF THE EU REFERENDUM On the monthly chart above i have posted key points in previous years where the pound has taken a dive against the dollar. August 2008, the recession hits, the value of the pound drops from nearly 2.00000 to 1.35300 in 6 months. August 2012, the economy enters a double-dip recession after two consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy. Now, late June 2016 following the UK's decision to vote to leave the EU we have seen the value of GBP plummet, a 1700 pip loss in one day, reaching lows last seen in 1985. During this time of uncertainty and turmoil it is hard to see the pound recovering any of its value in the near future. I see the UK economy potentially entering another recession after the news of yesterday. Furthermore, due to this assumption, i have projected GBP to fall to the levels of 1.25000 - 1.20000 in the upcoming months. Let me know what you think in the comments below.

EUR/GBP - WILL UK STAY OR LEAVE?I am staying well out of any trades this week as i am expecting the market to be extremely volatile with the anticipation of the EU referendum. However this is just an idea that it appears traders are taking the position that they expect the UK to stay in the EU as the Euro declines as the GBP grows in strength. Stochastic/MACD/RSI all show a strong correlation that the Euro is declining in value and strength against the pound in anticipation for the EU referendum. Will wait and see how this all plans out on the 23rd June.

GBPUSD potential Bat Pattern Hello Traders, We have a potential BAT pattern If price can reach 1.4094. Today CPI Inflation figures came out less than expected at 0.3% which has helped pushed price down close to our level of entry. This area has confluence of support and trend line support. There seems to signs of indecision in this area too. If we can continue to put in higher lows this pair can be considered to be in an uptrend. Target 1: 1.4354 Target 2: 1.4510 Beware of holding this trade over the coming weeks due to the EU referendum. Please follow, like, share and comment

GBPUSD - Power of Fibonacci extension and retracement levels.This pair is showing a nice trend - counter trend pattern. We have had the ABCD move down and have completed the countertrend move. Using ichimoku we can pick an entry point, when we get a candle closer with good momentum below the the Tenkan sen, we can short this pair. The last hourly candle is a Bearish engulfing which adds to the trading idea. With the EU referendum happening this week, volatility (uncertainty) may be too high. That being said, please understand the wave pattern we have seen.

PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS - GBPUSD: SCOTTISH UK VS UK EU REFERENDUM This article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Price Action and Trends Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - The first 8 of the 10 weeks GU traded extremely bid, selling off 1000pips from 1.7000 to 1.6000 . GU failed to make any significant recoveries during this period - signifying an extremely strong down-trend. - at the end of the down trend and coming into the REF, GU recovered 40% from 1.6000 on the 9th Sep, to 1.64000 on the 18th Sep (event vol highs at 1.6580). The sell off the proceeded to continue after the event, selling off back to 1.5900 by week 12/13. - Price action remained significantly below the 50 & 20 VWMA throughout the 10-week period and after the event - confirming the strong down-trend. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - Since the bottom formed on 29th Feb at 1.3850, GU has been trading in an up trend, forming marginally higher highs and higher lows. However, the uptrend has turned into sideways action in the last 3-4 weeks as GU has failed to make new highs of any significance and is failing to make higher lows - and the high-low range is tightening. in the last 10 weeks GU has risen 330 pips from 1.4270 to 1.4500 close-close and has had a range of 600 pips - 1.4170 to 1.4770. In the last 5 Weeks however GU traded flat closed to close at 1.4500, with a range of 400pips 1.4340 to 1.4730 illustrating the tightening range, sideways movement and end to the trend - the market is sleeping and is waiting for a stimulus to break in a direction. - At the start of the 10 week period, Price bullishly crossed the 50 & 20 VWMA and has stayed above since, confirming an up trend. The 20 period, however, has been trading choppy, illustrating the low trend/ direction and the significant pull-backs. Comparisons 1. The Scot REF priced GU over 1000 pips lower in the 10 week period, in a decisive downward move - however, this UK EU event has failed to do anything similar and has actually done the opposite by rising in the last 10 weeks, currently trading up 300 pips. - Why? imo there is only 2 reasons why there has been such a big difference in the price action. 1. The reason GU isnt pricing downward is because GU already priced/ factored in Brexit uncertainty into the downside we saw between december 18th.15 to March 2nd.16, which took us from 1.5300 to 1.3800 which is a whopping 1500+pips lower - this was likely FOMC hike driven but given the extent of the move, it is highly likely that brexit was included in the price lower - hence why we are not seeing a move now - the UK REF is already in the price. 2. The less likely reason is that GU isnt pricing the move because 1). the market has been scared stiff by the uncertainty, and people simple arent willing to take risk either way thus explaining why price is trading flat/sideways. or 2) GU is planning on making a significant run to the downside in the next two weeks where it could shed 1000 pips if it falls back to 1.3800; or even 700 pips if it moves to 1.4000 which isnt that far off of the 1000pip Scot Ref move. The technical indicators are just mirror a function of price thus I will not read into the technicals much - obviously the Scot Ref indicators spent much of the time depressed since the price was falling rapidly, whilst the UK EU Ref has been mixed - since the price is trading sideways. *Look out for my upcoming article where i will discus what the above differences mean and what they imply price action will do in the next two weeks going into the UK EU Ref and FOMC.

PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS - GBPUSD: SCOTTISH UK V UK EU REFERENDUM 2 This article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Ranges Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - GU started the period at 1.7000 and closed the period at 1.64000, with highs at 1.7150 and lows at 1.6000 with a range of 1150pips. - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.18th-Sep 18th) GU opened at 1.6730, closed at 1.6400 with highs at 1.6730 and lows at 1.6000 and a range of 730 pips - Close to open of 330pips - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.1st-Sep5th 5wk comparison) GU opened at 1.6877, closed at 1.6300 with highs at 1.6877 and lows at 1.6277 and a range of 600pips. - from week 10-13 GU shed the the Recovery/ No vote volatility gains, and traded from 1.6400 to 1.5900 with a range of 500 pips. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - GU started the period at 1.4270 and closed at 1.4500 - range of 600 pips - 1.4170 to 1.4770. -In the last 5 Weeks (5wk comparison) however GU traded flat open to close at 1.4500-10, but with a range of 400pips 1.4340 to 1.4730. Comparisons In general, the Scot Ref traded/closed much closer to its ranges than the UK EU Ref has to date e.g. in the "comparative" last 5wks, Scot Ref opened at 1.6877 (which was its high also) and closed at 1.6300 (only 30 pips from its range low at 1.6270) so GU ate 570/600pips of its range - illustrating that the Scot Ref had much more directional bias since it traded and held its extreme levels. Where as the UK EU Ref comparative 5wk period, opened at 1.4500 and closed at 1.4510, but with a range of 1.4340 to 1.4730, so GU only managed to eat/commit to 10/400pips that it ranged - illustrating that the UK EU Ref has lot direction commitment and 0 trend, it is a sideways ranging market. Technicals Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - RSI, STOCH and RVI sold off in the first weeks of the 10wk period, then remained severly under pressure for the remainder of the 8wk sell off - all of which failing to break 40 and posting lows of 13 with several <20s. The event driven recovery between the 9th sep to 18th sep however helped the technicals recover to 50 levels. - Historical vol, traded in an uptrend during the first 8wk selloff from 2 to 11, before falling slightly during the recovery and spiking again to 10-12 around the REF date due to event volatility. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - RSI and RVI have been bullish, trading in the upper 60% all of the time, with several "overbrought" conditions arising at 70. - Historical vol has traded relatively flat, ranging between 6-12 with it ticking up in recent times to trade above 10 on most days now. - Stoch oscillated throughout the period, with a bias to the downside, showing two oversold conditions of <20, illustrating the bullish trend as it was the little pullbacks that caused these conditions. * See the first article in this series (linked to this article) *Look out for my upcoming article where i will discus what the above differences mean and what they imply price action will do in the next two weeks going into the UK EU Ref and FOMC .

PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS - GBPUSD: SCOTTISH UK VS UK EU REFERENDUM This article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD-0.27% in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Ranges Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - GU started the period at 1.7000 and closed the period at 1.64000, with highs at 1.7150 and lows at 1.6000 with a range of 1150pips. - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.18th-Sep 18th) GU opened at 1.6730, closed at 1.6400 with highs at 1.6730 and lows at 1.6000 and a range of 730 pips - Close to open of 330pips - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.1st-Sep5th 5wk comparison) GU opened at 1.6877, closed at 1.6300 with highs at 1.6877 and lows at 1.6277 and a range of 600pips. - from week 10-13 GU shed the the Recovery/ No vote volatility gains, and traded from 1.6400 to 1.5900 with a range of 500 pips. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - GU started the period at 1.4270 and closed at 1.4500 - range of 600 pips - 1.4170 to 1.4770. -In the last 5 Weeks (5wk comparison) however GU traded flat open to close at 1.4500-10, but with a range of 400pips 1.4340 to 1.4730. Comparisons In general, the Scot Ref traded/closed much closer to its ranges than the UK EU Ref has to date e.g. in the "comparative" last 5wks, Scot Ref opened at 1.6877 (which was its high also) and closed at 1.6300 (only 30 pips from its range low at 1.6270) so GU ate 570/600pips of its range - illustrating that the Scot Ref had much more directional bias since it traded and held its extreme levels. Where as the UK EU Ref comparative 5wk period, opened at 1.4500 and closed at 1.4510, but with a range of 1.4340 to 1.4730, so GU only managed to eat/commit to 10/400pips that it ranged - illustrating that the UK EU Ref has lot direction commitment and 0 trend, it is a sideways ranging market. Technicals Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 RSI, STOCH and RVI sold off in the first weeks of the 10wk period, then remained severly under pressure for the remainder of the 8wk sell off - all of w hich failing to break 40 and posting lows of 13 with several <20s. The event driven recovery between the 9th sep to 18th sep however helped the technicals recover to 50 levels. Historical vol, traded in an uptrend during the first 8wk selloff from 2 to 11, before falling slightly during the recovery and spiking again to 10-12 around the REF date due to event volatility. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 RSI and RVI have been bullish, trading in the upper 60% all of the time, with several "overbrought" conditions arising at 70. Historical vol has traded relatively flat, ranging between 6-12 with it ticking up in recent times to trade above 10 on most days now. Stoch oscillated throughout the period, with a bias to the downside, showing two oversold conditions of <20, illustrating the bullish trend as it was the little pullbacks that caused these conditions. *Look out for my upcoming article where i will discus what the above differences mean and what they imply price action will do in the next two weeks going into the UK EU Ref and FOMC .