Eurnokideas
I get NOKed down.. but I get up again...You're never gonna keep me down,
I get NOKed down, but I get up again,
You're never gonna keep me down!
Now that you all hopefully have the song stuck as much into your head as I have ;) we can go straight to the facts:
It is true that over the past two years, the Norwegian krone has all too often been one of the big losers in the FX market.
Not only has it embarrassingly been constantly beaten up against the EUR and traded at an all-time low, but it has even brought up the rear of ALL G10 currencies since November 2022.
This was hardly surprising as almost all fundamental factors spoke against the NOK.
However, the tide will turn dramatically in 2024, especially in the EURNOK:
NOK positive:
➡️ Energy prices appear to have bottomed out and could rise again.
➡️ The oil price appears to be stabilising at the USD 60-70 mark and could rise if necessary in the event of a soft landing
➡️ January and February are seasonally positive for the NOK
➡️ Norges Bank surprised EVERYONE in December by raising interest rates again
➡️ Norges Bank enters 2024 as one of the hawkishest of the G10 central banks
➡️ A further rate hike by Norges Bank in early 2024 cannot be ruled out
➡️ It would raise interest rates while virtually all other central banks would be in rate-cutting mode
➡️ Norges Bank will drastically reduce its NOK purchases from January (as previously announced by me in the NOKSEK Tradeidee) , see here:
My CHFNOK Short should also be a sure winner in 2024:
EURNOK - To valhalla!First things first: all hail the vikings!
Why I like this trade:
- NOK with the MUCH better fundamentals
- NOK clearly undervalued on a longterm timeframe
- Norges Bank quite dovish in their last meeting but could get hawkish again in march as
-> inflation has massively surprised to the upside
- inflation expectations on thursday will be key for NB
- NB could reduce NOK selling
- oil and nat gas with upward potential
- EUR optimism is overpriced
Short EURNOK - the vikings will win!First things first: all hail valhalla!
Why I like this trade:
- NOK with the MUCH better fundamentals
- NOK clearly undervalued on a longterm timeframe
- Norges Bank quite dovish in their last meeting but could get hawkish again in march as
-> inflation has massively surprised to the upside
- inflation expectations on thursday will be key for NB
- NB could reduce NOK selling
- oil and nat gas with upward potential
- EUR optimism is overpriced
EURNOK ANALYSIS AND TRADE IDEA - MONTHLY AND WEEKLY ICIHello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a LIKE and FOLLOW for more creation of free analysis. \m/
On the Monthly & Weekly we have an ICI strategy forming, we already have an impulse and a correction we are waiting for the retracement to touch the 0.382 of the fibonacci taken on the impulse of the Monthly and Weekly.
Entry is at the 4H time frame on the 0.382 and take profit at the -0.272 of the impulse leg and stop loss is above the last high.
Trade Signal
SELL
Entry: 10.05767
Take Profit: 9.37643
Stop Loss: 10.18033
SELL
Entry: 10.03073
Take Profit: 9.39421
Stop Loss: 10.18033
Good luck!
Trade wisely, please do proper money management.
~FX_SHIFTER
EURNOK continuous downwardsEURNOK will continue downward movement after breaking support level, momentum downwards is still strong...
EURNOK New BreakoutA breakout just happened on this pair. I'm only in for a small amount, because EUR has released strong numbers and volume isn't strong. It have been building up cash for over a weak now. But it's a solid breakout, with an exhausted candle yesterday. There is always the chance it might pull back a bit, in US market open, so you could wait. If RSI is diving under 25.0000 I might add to my short position.
EURNOK ReboundIt's rebounding on the fan. EUR is not having a good morning, so a nice add for those that jumped in the last time I had this pair up. For new comers it might be a small entry for you. We are below all ema/ma's, rsi can't make new high. I believe a few coins can me made on this trade.
EURNOK Breakout 3TAPWaited for this to happen for some time now. Hopefully patients will pay off. I have a pretty aggressive short position. Be aware of my stop loss. It is large, but it needs to be over the breakout line so I do not get stopped out if/when stop loss hunt begins. Profit could be bigger than I show, but currently I limit it around 8.83730 which is the last time 200MA had a consolidation. (Zoom out on the chart to see)
